djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2015 0:13:30 GMT -5
41 days before the Iowa Caucus in 2008......... Giuliani lead the Republican field by 13% McCain was in FOURTH. he was trailing by 16% anything sound familiar about that? oh- did i forget to mention that Guiliani had lead for ALMOST A YEAR? how about the fact that nobody seemed to think he could be beaten? did i mention that? oh, and how about the fact that nobody was ever close during that time? did i mention that? yeah, sorry about that. yeah, Guiliani, draped in his invincible 911 cape was going to cruise right through the primaries and win the nomination...... one final question: how many primaries did Giuliani win? edit: i think that 2008 is the more relevant race, because of the circumstances, both electorally, and in terms of national freakoutedness.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Dec 23, 2015 10:04:38 GMT -5
I'll tell you Cruz's plan. I can't say it'll work- but the plan is to awaken the massive sleeping evangelical vote- most of whom either haven't voted in years, or if they do vote, don't bother with the primary. Literally every Cruz rally is in a church somewhere. Something else from the inside down here working for Cruz- I've never thought Trump would implode, but his supporters are nut jobs. They're on the attack, and it's clear their target are Cruz supporters. We have been bombarded with messages from Trump supporters, and they are nasty, vitriolic, and not the least bit persuasive. I think this is going to hurt him eventually. I get it that people are angry. I REALLY understand GOP voters having been betrayed by the establishment- but the attacks on Cruz that he's an establishment stooge? C'mon, Trumpies. Give me a break. they are not only nut jobs, they are really naiive, imo. they think that demagoguery and a cult of personality is going to carry him through the process without any organization, without any sponsors, and without any ground game, and i have to say that i think that is nuts- prima face nuts. now, the Trump people seem to think that this is the guy that breaks all the rules and wins- but let's have an honest moment here: TRUMP....HAS....NOT.....WON.....ANYTHING. and he is trailing in Iowa. so, let's not put the horse all the way down the end of the track past the finish line, without ever having been attached to the cart, right? edit: i think Cruz has remained cool under fire, which is really good. and i think he has handled being in the third Tier for a very long time EXTREMELY well. and i will buy your argument about him being an anti-establishment candidate, as much as a sitting Senator can be one. he has pissed off every Republican in congress at one point or another. so that is working in his favor, right now, i think. and then, there is this: www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/12/20/jeff_sessions_without_ted_cruz_amnesty_would_have_passed_in_2013.htmlVery well stated. The Cruz organization is virtually all-volunteer, grass-roots, and fired up-- I've never seen a an election won with an air war, and Mr. Trump WILL. NOT. BE. the first. That's because it is not possible. People that show up to arenas do not necessarily show up to the polls. This is a historical fact, and conventional wisdom that the Trump campaign will not defy. Because you can't overcome human nature- intertia- without either an extremely fired up base of support who are experienced, informed political animals-- who know, for example, that Florida is a closed primary state, and if you are not registered as a Republican, you may not vote in the primary- and the registration closes 29 days before the election. Odds are pretty good most Trump supporters don't even know the date of the Florida primary, let alone the need- and the deadline to register Republican.
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Dec 23, 2015 10:25:45 GMT -5
Just something for ya'al to keep in mind.... I'm neither a D or R, but I lean towards the liberal side on most issues. However, in our state you do not REGISTER for either party and can only vote for that party in the primary. We declare which ballot we want when we show up at the polls. So, since most of my state's local offices are full of Republicans, I will request a R ballot so that I can have a say in our local politics. I also will NOT vote for Trump, but I will make a selection from those running for President. I also know several other folks in other states that will be doing the same thing I will do....so don't forget to count our votes for someone other than Trump. And most of us don't get polled! I haven't had one phone call yet this year and I do still have a land line and am normally covered up with robo calls this close to the first primary! Since I haven't had those calls, IMHO the big money PACs and others are holding off until they see the field narrowed down more...then watch out!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2015 10:46:36 GMT -5
Just something for ya'al to keep in mind.... I'm neither a D or R, but I lean towards the liberal side on most issues. However, in our state you do not REGISTER for either party and can only vote for that party in the primary. We declare which ballot we want when we show up at the polls. So, since most of my state's local offices are full of Republicans, I will request a R ballot so that I can have a say in our local politics. I also will NOT vote for Trump, but I will make a selection from those running for President. I also know several other folks in other states that will be doing the same thing I will do....so don't forget to count our votes for someone other than Trump. And most of us don't get polled! I haven't had one phone call yet this year and I do still have a land line and am normally covered up with robo calls this close to the first primary! Since I haven't had those calls, IMHO the big money PACs and others are holding off until they see the field narrowed down more...then watch out!
we have a closed primary here, as well, and i will most likely be voting for Paul.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2015 10:48:50 GMT -5
they are not only nut jobs, they are really naiive, imo. they think that demagoguery and a cult of personality is going to carry him through the process without any organization, without any sponsors, and without any ground game, and i have to say that i think that is nuts- prima face nuts. now, the Trump people seem to think that this is the guy that breaks all the rules and wins- but let's have an honest moment here: TRUMP....HAS....NOT.....WON.....ANYTHING. and he is trailing in Iowa. so, let's not put the horse all the way down the end of the track past the finish line, without ever having been attached to the cart, right? edit: i think Cruz has remained cool under fire, which is really good. and i think he has handled being in the third Tier for a very long time EXTREMELY well. and i will buy your argument about him being an anti-establishment candidate, as much as a sitting Senator can be one. he has pissed off every Republican in congress at one point or another. so that is working in his favor, right now, i think. and then, there is this: www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/12/20/jeff_sessions_without_ted_cruz_amnesty_would_have_passed_in_2013.htmlVery well stated. The Cruz organization is virtually all-volunteer, grass-roots, and fired up-- I've never seen a an election won with an air war, and Mr. Trump WILL. NOT. BE. the first. That's because it is not possible. People that show up to arenas do not necessarily show up to the polls. This is a historical fact, and conventional wisdom that the Trump campaign will not defy. Because you can't overcome human nature- intertia- without either an extremely fired up base of support who are experienced, informed political animals-- who know, for example, that Florida is a closed primary state, and if you are not registered as a Republican, you may not vote in the primary- and the registration closes 29 days before the election. Odds are pretty good most Trump supporters don't even know the date of the Florida primary, let alone the need- and the deadline to register Republican. thanks, Paul. it is not surprising that we agree on this, given your proximity to the Cruz campaign. you would know better than most.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2015 14:19:23 GMT -5
Trump +17 Cruz +7 Rubio +2 Carson +6
same story. Cruz and Trump are rising, Rubio and Carson are falling. Cruz and Trump are at the peak of their polling numbers.
there is a tiny story in the basement, but it is hardly worth mentioning. it looks like Christie is going to pass Bush and push him into 6th.
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Robert not Bobby
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Post by Robert not Bobby on Dec 23, 2015 14:43:27 GMT -5
dj...I don't much like any of them, but your analysis is astute.
Personally, I sort of like Rand Paul...but he is such a long shot. He has not caught the popular imagination at all. I also like Christie...nothing wrong with a fat president. He is fiscally conservative and socially open minded, and I like that...and then there is that bridge thing. Can this guy be trusted?
To me, if the winds of anti Washington and career politicians holds, it will be between Trump and Cruz (who is a career politician, but able to pass himself off as an outsider).
I'm not a betting man, and if I was, I would hold until the first two or three primaries are over and done with.
This is still up in the air.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 23, 2015 14:48:00 GMT -5
dj...I don't like any of them, but your analysis is astute. Personally, I like Rand Paul...but he is such a long shot. He has not caught the popular imagination at all. I also like Christie...nothing wrong with a fat president. He is fiscally conservative and socially open minded, and I like that...and then there is that bridge thing. Can this guy be trusted? To me, if the winds of anti Washington and career politicians holds, it will be between Trump and Cruz (who is a career politician, but able to pass himself off as an outsider). I'm not a betting man, and if I was, I would hold until the first two or three primaries are over and done with. This is still up in the air. it is. but i am in agreement with Paul here. Trump has no ground game, and i think he loses because of it. Carson = same. so, that leaves the rest of the field. it could be any of them. but i would agree that Rand is a longshot. Cruz is definitely the most likely, imo. at this point, anyway.
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Robert not Bobby
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Post by Robert not Bobby on Dec 23, 2015 15:01:10 GMT -5
I've heard that it may be a brokered convention, and that hasn't happened in my life time...I think.
We'll see.
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fishy999
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Post by fishy999 on Dec 24, 2015 2:14:12 GMT -5
I've heard that it may be a brokered convention, and that hasn't happened in my life time...I think. We'll see. Yet. I am almost ready to entertain theories that a Republican would run as a third party to take on Trump.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 24, 2015 2:21:35 GMT -5
I've heard that it may be a brokered convention, and that hasn't happened in my life time...I think. We'll see. i think that would be a disaster for the GOP.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Dec 25, 2015 16:37:22 GMT -5
I've been trying to see if I can like Rubio a little (at least more than those worthless f***s Trump, Carson, and Cruz who I could never support) but now reading the story of how he is blocking the nomination of the proposed ambassador to Mexico because he is mad about Cuba? What a dumb****! Screw him too.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 26, 2015 12:55:45 GMT -5
Trump +19 Cruz +6 Rubio +2 Carson+6
Trump drifts higher on strong polling results, Cruz all alone in second, Carson and Rubio bringing up the rear.
NOTE: Christie is now tied for 5th with Bush.
there have been no new national polls in a week, so this is based on purging older polls.
note2: Carson is now below 10%. he has fallen 15% from his peak to today.
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Post by Shooby on Dec 26, 2015 17:36:48 GMT -5
We don't need Rubio. We have Trump. Who tells it like it is.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Dec 26, 2015 18:08:50 GMT -5
Trump? Whose entire campaign was named, "Lie of the Year" and who was personally named, "King of Whoppers?" THAT Trump?
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Shooby
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Post by Shooby on Dec 26, 2015 18:15:28 GMT -5
Yup. I like him.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 26, 2015 18:16:07 GMT -5
Trump? Whose entire campaign was named, "Lie of the Year" and who was personally named, "King of Whoppers?" THAT Trump? he tells it like he imagines it. and his imagination is about 1% accurate. the most troublesome lie he has told recently is that Clinton "lies all the time". the truth is that Clinton lies enough, but to exaggerate it thusly protects The Donald against her. after all, if Clinton says ANYTHING about Trump at this point, he will characterize it as a lie, because she lies all of the time. this reminds me of this logical dilemma:
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 27, 2015 12:34:56 GMT -5
latest New Hampshire Poll is very troubling for Trump:
Trump +14 Rubio +1 Christie +0 Cruz +3
latest poll shows Trump +6 over KASICH. very interesting result, and we will see if it holds. Kasich is now in 5th, but he has the numbers to make it to 3rd or 2nd, imo.
note: NH is a much better indicator of how the nomination is likely to go than is Iowa. this is a bad poll for Trump- his worst result since OCTOBER. but he is still ahead outside of MOE (6%). STAY TUNED!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 27, 2015 12:48:44 GMT -5
36 days before the Iowa primary in 2008, here were the standings: Giuliani: +14 Thompson: +2 Romney: +0 McCain: +3 i think this looks quite similar to this year. first of all, there was no sitting president running. second, the field was large. third, a relative outsider, who was seen as a kind of grumpy, "tells it like it is" candidate was leading the field by a LARGE MARGIN. the only big difference is that Rudy basically ran the table in 2007. i think he pretty much lead in every single poll all year long. and by no small margin. nobody got within (5) points of him. until just before Iowa. edit: this was the point where McCain moved into 3rd, passing Romney: 5 weeks before the primary. nobody thought he would win that year. edit2: i just found this article by NewsMax in 2008, which shows the right wing perspective on Giuliani's loss. i think it is quite interesting. Trump is the new Giuliani : www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/giuliani-loses/2008/02/03/id/322832/
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Dec 27, 2015 13:36:44 GMT -5
Well, at least they can't say THAT about The Donald. He DOES care enough about (exploiting) conservatives to lie to them.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 27, 2015 13:46:49 GMT -5
isn't that article fascinating? i mean, i disagree with most of it's conclusions- but i found it's PERSPECTIVE very....informative?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 27, 2015 22:17:34 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 29, 2015 17:09:17 GMT -5
Trump +17 Cruz +7 Rubio +2 Carson+5
Trump still solidly on top, with Cruz, at 19%, at the peak of his campaign, and still rising..... Rubio and Carson appear to have bottomed out, which would be bad news for Cruz and good news for Trump.
in the basement, Christie just passed Bush, which pushed Bush into 6th.
i am not liking how Rubio is trending. he is basically wandering around in the 8-15% range- and has not topped 15% during the course of his campaign. one would think that if he was going to be taken seriously, it would be now. but i am starting to think that Christie might come up from behind and usurp him in 3rd. Christie fell to 2% in August, but he is now running consistently around 5% nationally, and doing far better than that in NH, where he has run a solid 3rd this month- and in one poll, second. i think Carson is done for, as well. i think NH is a better indication of what is likely to happen than the national polls or Iowa. the problem, of course, is that we basically have four people tied for second there right now. we will have to see who emerges in the next several polls.
silly season is over. game on. there is a 60% chance that Trump wins NJ right now, and a 60% chance that Cruz wins Iowa.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 29, 2015 17:14:42 GMT -5
NH- (42) days before the primary, 2008:
Romney +15 Giuliani +2 McCain +10 Paul +0
National- (34) days before Iowan, 2008:
Giuliani +14 Thompson +1 McCain +0 Romney +4
McCain was in 3rd in both polls. looking at the NH Poll, it was pretty clear that Rudy was already in trouble in 2008.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 2, 2016 20:28:32 GMT -5
Trump +16 Cruz +8 Rubio +3 Carson +4 not much has changed here. there are no new polls, except one in Nevada which shows Trump maintaining his lead, but Cruz very much on the radar. what we CAN see, however, is the deterioration of Carson's position. he is now almost out of polling error for 3rd place, and about half way between Rubio and Christie. Cruz is now all alone in second, much the way that Carson was from September thru December. now at the peak of his campaign, with a polling average of 20% if he moves 1% higher, he will become only the third person in the race to reach that level. i think that is quite likely to happen, based on his momentum. Trump's next barrier seems to be 40%. he has broken every other one before. however, it is likely that if he can break this one, and hold it, he will win the nomination. as i said before, the only way for a Cruz or a Christie, or a Rubio to beat him is to take away his voters, and they heed about 10% to do that. in other words, they need to bring him back down into the 20's. and so far, there is no indication that is going to happen. yet. 30 days before Iowa in 2008 (national poll): Giuliani +12 McCain +0 Thompson +0 Huckabee +3 at this point in the race, McCain became visible, as did HUCKABEE, who had a spectacular November. Thompson fell into 3rd on this date, and Romney fell to 5th. Romney was kind of the FIORINA of 2008. he got some attention, but he never made it out of 3rd place. and by this point in the campaign, it was pretty clear he was not going to be the nominee (though he still lead in NH by 15%, see below) the question now is: who will be the MCCAIN of 2016? 38 days before NH in 2008 (New Hampshire polling): Romney +15 Giuliani +3 McCain +6 Huckabee +3 no change from the last survey, here- except that Huck kicked Paul into the basement. incidentally, Iowa was even more deaf to what was going on nationally in 2008. they showed McCain in 5th on this day in 2008. Huckabee was in 1st (he had just taken over the lead from Romney).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 5, 2016 12:04:36 GMT -5
no new polling. but here is where the national polls stood (27) days before Iowa in 2008:
Giuliani +7 Huckabee +3 McCain +1 Thompson +1
the Huckabee surge continued, as Huck cut Rudy's lead to 7 (4) weeks before the Iowa caucus.
Huck was also +5 in Iowa, and in 4th in NH.
NOTE: McCain was still in 3rd at this point.
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Post by Shooby on Jan 5, 2016 12:14:21 GMT -5
Lie away. I would rather have him than all the rest.
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Post by verrip1 on Jan 5, 2016 12:34:26 GMT -5
Lie away. I would rather have him than all the rest. Shoob, I'm missing something. What is the lie you are referring to? My guess from your second sentence is that it has something to do with The Donald, but I don't know what.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jan 5, 2016 12:38:45 GMT -5
I believe what shooby is saying is that even though Trump is spewing lie upon lie it doesn't matter to her at all. She doesn't even seem to care that he has no conservative bona fides and appears to support policies that would make him a closet liberal.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 5, 2016 12:52:57 GMT -5
Lie away. I would rather have him than all the rest. Shoob, I'm missing something. What is the lie you are referring to? My guess from your second sentence is that it has something to do with The Donald, but I don't know what. i am confused, too. i didn't even MENTION her new boyfriend.
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