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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 22, 2015 13:57:01 GMT -5
i have been tracking the nomination process on the Bush thread, but it seems clear to me, as of today, he is not going to be the candidate. if the GOP is going to vote for someone who has actually been elected, it is going to be someone that is younger, has less baggage, and has fewer nuanced opinions than Bush. i judge him OUT of this race. so, here is a brief survey of the process so far: when this race was first discussed, Christie was in the lead by a wide margin. then Bridgegate happened, among other things. however, it is well to remember that he was the first candidate to get 20% support, and he was the last one to do it for another (18) months (and only three candidates have reached that level). in 2014, Christie was overtaken by Huckabee. not many people remember this, but it is a fact. Friar Huck pulled into the lead and held it for four months in 2014. Huckabee was overtaken by Rand Paul in May. Paul held the lead for SIX MONTHS, finally losing it to the presumptive front runner: Bush. Bush held the lead twice: from November until February of 2015, and then, again, from April to July of 2015. he reached a peak of 17.8% that month. Scott Walker lead in February and March of 2015. but despite a large war chest, and presumptive good credentials, he quickly lost his way in a bumbling campaign which caused him to be the first candidate to drop out of the Republican primary. Since July of 2015, it has been mostly the Trump show, though he lost the lead briefly to Carson earlier this month. now we will see if the GOP establishment, the resurgent campaigns of Rubio and Cruz, and his own mis-steps can topple him- but it seems clear to me now that Carson is not going to be the guy. my reasoning is that he is sucking votes from the same pool, and in that pool, i think Trump wins. so, if Trump is going to lose the thing, it will be to a MORE "mainstream" candidacy. so now, we sit back and watch. the Iowa Caucuses are barely two months away. play time is over. NOTE: any unreferenced polls are from THIS LINK (thanks, VB- i thought i put this in the OP. my mistake): www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 22, 2015 14:01:44 GMT -5
summary: i think that, all in all, this primary has not been that different than 2012, except in one respect: the presumptive front runner was not as strong, and did not eventually prevail. therefore, the insurgent campaigns have done better, and gotten a lot more daylight. but so far we have had SEVEN leaders in this race, and that seems very similar to 2012. i just realized that the two guys i think are most likely to catch Trump have not lead yet, which would make 8-9 leaders, if it goes as predicted.
as of today, i am very much against Trump. his reaction, and proposed prescription for "terrorism" is utterly without merit, imo. we have gone down that road, and although MANY people think it is where we should go (including those that supported Bush to the bitter end) most of us know better.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 22, 2015 14:05:35 GMT -5
two new surveys are out, and they both show the same thing- Trump up by double digits, again (note- from this point forward, i will post the lead over the next competitor):
Trump + 8% - all alone in first place. clear front runner, and his best numbers since his September peak.
Carson + 7% - all alone in second place. his latest two surveys were lower- but not sharply. he is polling at appx 20%, down from appx 25% in October.
Rubio + 1% - he and Cruz continue to bring up the third tier. Rubio is polling at his best level since May.
Cruz + 6% - Cruz is on fire. he is now at his best level in nearly TWO YEARS. you read that right. two years. he is only 1% below his high of 12.3% set in October of 2013.
there are six other candidates in the race that are polling from 2-6%. i suspect that several will drop out, which would put another 20% on the table for Cruz and Rubio, but i don't know who it is going to be, nor can i reasonably predict that it will be any. here are the six:
Bush Fiorina Huckabee Christie Kasich Paul
if Rubio and Cruz were to split that vote, we would have a very real four way race, with all four candidates getting 20-30%.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 22, 2015 14:16:47 GMT -5
i wanted to add another note here about the new ABC poll, which has Trump at 32% (his best level of the campaign).
this poll is strangely similar to the one they did a month ago. this is really good news for Trump, actually. it shows a very stable top tier, with him at the peak. but again, i find it really odd how similar these polls are- between the two polls there is not more than a 1% difference for any candidate with ONE EXCEPTION: Cruz- who is up 2% since a month ago.
the debates, the speeches, the commercials, all of that stuff has not changed the polling at this one agency. it is hard to imagine what will, at this point.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 22, 2015 14:27:55 GMT -5
i think Rand Paul would be very wise to drop out, given what just happened in Louisiana. it is going to be tough for the GOP to retain control of the senate, and without Paul going after his seat, i am thinking the odds are even lower. we will see whether he cares more about the party or himself, but he should know by now that he is not going to be president in 2017. that would yield 3% of those polled to, most likely, Cruz, which would put him in 3rd.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 22, 2015 14:54:26 GMT -5
Jeb!Won't your face be red when he wins the nomination. So much hope. So much detailed analysis. So many polls and prognostications. It's adorable.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 22, 2015 14:56:14 GMT -5
Jeb!Won't your face be red when he wins the nomination. So much hope. So much detailed analysis. So many polls and prognostications. It's adorable. hope for what?
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Post by mmhmm on Nov 22, 2015 14:57:47 GMT -5
Can we, just maybe, keep the discussion directed toward the subject of the thread rather than at other posters? That would be so very novel - and appreciated!
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Post by Shooby on Nov 22, 2015 18:59:02 GMT -5
Trump
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 22, 2015 19:33:44 GMT -5
Jeb!Won't your face be red when he wins the nomination. So much hope. So much detailed analysis. So many polls and prognostications. It's adorable. hope for what? Hope that candidates' popularity in some wise dictates the outcome of the primaries.
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Post by resolution on Nov 22, 2015 20:52:16 GMT -5
I had somehow blacked out the fact that Huckabee was ever on top.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 22, 2015 21:31:50 GMT -5
Well, it does have some bearing. In no way was Obama the Chosen One in 2008. The will of the people determined that primary process. There was that, I suppose. He learned to read the teleprompter pretty quickly.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2015 11:43:47 GMT -5
i keep thinking the GOP will have a rational response to the crazy, but they keep proving me wrong.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2015 11:52:48 GMT -5
Hope that candidates' popularity in some wise dictates the outcome of the primaries. hope? i am just stating facts, and building a case against Bush using them. to wit: fact 1: Bush was in first place in mid-July. fact 2: Bush has been in fifth place for over a month now, and shows no sign of getting back into 4th. he is trailing Ted Cruz by SIX POINTS right now- roughly how far Trump is ahead of Carson. if Cruz and Bush were (1) and (2), certain members of the board would be calling Cruz's lead "commanding". and that is for FOURTH PLACE. fact 3: "outsiders" have done better than insiders during this race, by a wide margin. fact 4: Bush is seen as an insider, and he runs like one. fact 5: W fact 6: the four people who are ahead of Bush now have generally improving polling numbers. fact 7: with the primary only two months out, Bush looks listless and lifeless. he is within polling error of Huckabee, for goodness sakes. fact 8: Paris i am not predicting anything, really. i am just looking at the reality of Bush's situation and saying he has little or no chance of winning. now, you could be right, Virgil. he might wage an amazing comeback. but part of the reason i am betting against it is that i don't see anything he brings to the table. he is starting to remind me of Walker- a guy who was supposed to have done great, and did very poorly, and is now OUT. but lastly, i am not HOPING that Bush doesn't win. in fact, i would much prefer it. so you are really interpreting me wrong. i HOPE you are right. i EXPECT Bush to lose. that is quite different than hope. edit: if you think polling has little to do with how people perform in the primaries, you are dead wrong. it has everything to do with it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2015 11:55:33 GMT -5
Interesting. I'd forgotten that Paul was on top for as long as he was. i forgot he was on top at all, honestly. it was kind of a slow part in the campaign, when a whole bunch of candidates had 10-13%.
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Post by marvholly on Nov 24, 2015 6:03:26 GMT -5
Been thinking this for a couple weeks.
I have to wonder:
IF the media stopped reporting everything that comes out of Trump & Carson’s mouths and all the following comments would either still be at/near the top of the Republican early primary polls?
I think NOT. Ignore & they drop like flies in a raid spray.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 24, 2015 19:01:46 GMT -5
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Post by weltschmerz on Nov 24, 2015 22:21:56 GMT -5
. Duh. Simples.
Palin had her notes written on the palm of her hand. Carson has his written on the insides of his eyelids.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 2, 2015 12:24:42 GMT -5
Trump +10%: Trump has widened his lead by a couple of %, but only because Carson is falling. his numbers are precisely where they stood 3 months ago. Trump has been sitting between 22% and 31% for FOUR MONTHS....waiting for someone to catch him! Carson +5%: Carson briefly held the lead over Trump a month ago, but has since fallen 6%. i think he had his 15 mins, and that voters are going sour on him. Rubio +1%: Rubio has been gaining rapidly. he is up nearly 10% since September 15th, and has been in third since October 10th. Cruz +8%: Cruz continues to widen his gain over Bush, and is now at his best level of the campaign: 13%. at this rate, Rubio and/or Cruz will catch Carson later this month. this would create a 3-way tie, with Trump on top by about 13%. from there, it will be interesting to see what happens. what i am hoping is that BOTH will catch Trump, and create a very fluid 3-way race in Iowa. given that fact, i am going to start watching that poll. in Iowa, Trump has lead by single figures for the last month. however, in 3 of the last four surveys he was within polling error (twice with Carson and once with Cruz). Cruz is on fire in Iowa. he got 23% in the last survey, and is only 2% behind Carson in polling average.
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Post by Value Buy on Dec 2, 2015 14:00:01 GMT -5
Trump +10%: Trump has widened his lead by a couple of %, but only because Carson is falling. his numbers are precisely where they stood 3 months ago. Trump has been sitting between 22% and 31% for FOUR MONTHS....waiting for someone to catch him! Carson +5%: Carson briefly held the lead over Trump a month ago, but has since fallen 6%. i think he had his 15 mins, and that voters are going sour on him. Rubio +1%: Rubio has been gaining rapidly. he is up nearly 10% since September 15th, and has been in third since October 10th. Cruz +8%: Cruz continues to widen his gain over Bush, and is now at his best level of the campaign: 13%. at this rate, Rubio and/or Cruz will catch Carson later this month. this would create a 3-way tie, with Trump on top by about 13%. from there, it will be interesting to see what happens. what i am hoping is that BOTH will catch Trump, and create a very fluid 3-way race in Iowa. given that fact, i am going to start watching that poll. in Iowa, Trump has lead by single figures for the last month. however, in 3 of the last four surveys he was within polling error (twice with Carson and once with Cruz). Cruz is on fire in Iowa. he got 23% in the last survey, and is only 2% behind Carson in polling average. Quinnipac poll has different numbers. Carson was way down, and not positive. I believe Rubio and Cruz surpassed him, both trailing Trump by 10% and 9% Carson was fourth? Are your numbers from a national poll?
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Post by Opti on Dec 2, 2015 14:13:32 GMT -5
Saw this on MSN.
www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-trump-leads-gop-pack-rubio-cruz-gain-steam/ar-AAfVxju?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
Quinnipiac University poll of Republican voters nationwide, released Wednesday, finds Trump leading the pack with 27 percent of the support, up from 24 percent last month. Rubio comes in second with 17 percent, up 3 points from November. Cruz has gained 3 points, garnering 16 percent of the support and tying Carson, who lost 7 points over the past month.
The four candidates make up the top tier of GOP candidates, according to the poll. Jeb Bush received 5 percent of the support, Carly Fiorina earned 3 percent, and Chris Christie and John Kasich each garnered 2 percent. The remaining candidates received 1 percent or less.
The race, however, is still fluid: 65 percent say they might change their minds while 32 percent say their minds are made up. Among Trump supporters, however, 46 percent say they've made up their minds, while 53 percent say they could change. Among Rubio supporters, 23 percent are decided, and among Cruz supporters, 33 percent are decided. Twenty-six percent of Carson supporters have their minds made up.
Still, 26 percent of GOP voters say they would definitely not support Trump, the highest percentage in the field. Bush comes next, with 21 percent saying they would definitely not support him. Just 6 percent say the same for Cruz and 5 percent for Rubio, the lowest in the field.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 2, 2015 15:01:55 GMT -5
Trump +10%: Trump has widened his lead by a couple of %, but only because Carson is falling. his numbers are precisely where they stood 3 months ago. Trump has been sitting between 22% and 31% for FOUR MONTHS....waiting for someone to catch him! Carson +5%: Carson briefly held the lead over Trump a month ago, but has since fallen 6%. i think he had his 15 mins, and that voters are going sour on him. Rubio +1%: Rubio has been gaining rapidly. he is up nearly 10% since September 15th, and has been in third since October 10th. Cruz +8%: Cruz continues to widen his gain over Bush, and is now at his best level of the campaign: 13%. at this rate, Rubio and/or Cruz will catch Carson later this month. this would create a 3-way tie, with Trump on top by about 13%. from there, it will be interesting to see what happens. what i am hoping is that BOTH will catch Trump, and create a very fluid 3-way race in Iowa. given that fact, i am going to start watching that poll. in Iowa, Trump has lead by single figures for the last month. however, in 3 of the last four surveys he was within polling error (twice with Carson and once with Cruz). Cruz is on fire in Iowa. he got 23% in the last survey, and is only 2% behind Carson in polling average. Quinnipac poll has different numbers. Carson was way down, and not positive. I believe Rubio and Cruz surpassed him, both trailing Trump by 10% and 9% Carson was fourth? Are your numbers from a national poll? this update included the last four polls, one of which was Quinnipac. that poll was 1% LOWER than the last poll for Trump, so HIS polling numbers FELL slightly, but his lead went up (because Carson is sucking wind). i don't "single poll", VB. i use aggregates. but if you want me to comment on the Q poll, i would say that it reflects the new reality: Trump ahead, and a 3-way tie for 2nd. -djpd
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 2, 2015 15:04:00 GMT -5
Saw this on MSN.
www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-trump-leads-gop-pack-rubio-cruz-gain-steam/ar-AAfVxju?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
Quinnipiac University poll of Republican voters nationwide, released Wednesday, finds Trump leading the pack with 27 percent of the support, up from 24 percent last month. Rubio comes in second with 17 percent, up 3 points from November. Cruz has gained 3 points, garnering 16 percent of the support and tying Carson, who lost 7 points over the past month.
The four candidates make up the top tier of GOP candidates, according to the poll. Jeb Bush received 5 percent of the support, Carly Fiorina earned 3 percent, and Chris Christie and John Kasich each garnered 2 percent. The remaining candidates received 1 percent or less.
The race, however, is still fluid: 65 percent say they might change their minds while 32 percent say their minds are made up. Among Trump supporters, however, 46 percent say they've made up their minds, while 53 percent say they could change. Among Rubio supporters, 23 percent are decided, and among Cruz supporters, 33 percent are decided. Twenty-six percent of Carson supporters have their minds made up.
Still, 26 percent of GOP voters say they would definitely not support Trump, the highest percentage in the field. Bush comes next, with 21 percent saying they would definitely not support him. Just 6 percent say the same for Cruz and 5 percent for Rubio, the lowest in the field.
i think the "could change their mind" survey is utter nonsense. when this question was asked of Walker supporters back in April, they said the same thing that they are now saying about Trump. when your candidate tanks, it has a way of shaping your attitudes. but if we believe the survey, then half of Trump's supporters are up for grabs, which would put him in 4th, right now.
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Post by Value Buy on Dec 2, 2015 15:06:17 GMT -5
No, your explanation of a combination is good to know. Will keep it in mind next time, or could you gently remind me of this? TY
WHEN YOU COMBINE POLLS, HOW DO YOU DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN POLLS ASKING DIFFERENT QUESTIONS WITH DIFFERING NUMBER OF PEOPLE POLLED AND EVEN VARIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE PLUS OR MINUS ERROR? SOUNDS WAY TOO DIFFICULT!
Oops! Not yelling did not realize all caps and too lazy to change it!
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 2, 2015 15:11:02 GMT -5
No, your explanation of a combination is good to know. Will keep it in mind next time, or could you gently remind me of this? TY WHEN YOU COMBINE POLLS, HOW DO YOU DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN POLLS ASKING DIFFERENT QUESTIONS WITH DIFFERING NUMBER OF PEOPLE POLLED AND EVEN VARIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE PLUS OR MINUS ERROR? SOUNDS WAY TOO DIFFICULT! Oops! Not yelling did not realize all caps and too lazy to change it! LOL! generally speaking, aggregating polls decreases the error relative to single polls. at least that is my experience. and, as you know, it is an experience that has served me well. but you are correct in that i am assuming they are asking the same questions. sometimes they don't. edit: i should also add that sometimes i see an "outlier". recently, for example, there was a poll that showed Trump with 32%. OTHER THAN THAT POLL, he has not surveyed above 30% since September, and i pointed that out. but generally, i will take the surveys at face value, if they are telling me the "same story". and these surveys are. they are telling me that Trump's numbers are VERY STABLE, and that the three candidates underneath him are not. Cruz and Rubio are rising quickly, and will likely be to 20%+ by the end of year, and Carson is dropping, and will likely be in 4th by EOY. they are also telling me that "none of the other candidates are really competing for the nomination". at least, that is what the TRENDS say.
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Post by Opti on Dec 2, 2015 15:13:03 GMT -5
Saw this on MSN.
www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-trump-leads-gop-pack-rubio-cruz-gain-steam/ar-AAfVxju?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
Quinnipiac University poll of Republican voters nationwide, released Wednesday, finds Trump leading the pack with 27 percent of the support, up from 24 percent last month. Rubio comes in second with 17 percent, up 3 points from November. Cruz has gained 3 points, garnering 16 percent of the support and tying Carson, who lost 7 points over the past month.
The four candidates make up the top tier of GOP candidates, according to the poll. Jeb Bush received 5 percent of the support, Carly Fiorina earned 3 percent, and Chris Christie and John Kasich each garnered 2 percent. The remaining candidates received 1 percent or less.
The race, however, is still fluid: 65 percent say they might change their minds while 32 percent say their minds are made up. Among Trump supporters, however, 46 percent say they've made up their minds, while 53 percent say they could change. Among Rubio supporters, 23 percent are decided, and among Cruz supporters, 33 percent are decided. Twenty-six percent of Carson supporters have their minds made up.
Still, 26 percent of GOP voters say they would definitely not support Trump, the highest percentage in the field. Bush comes next, with 21 percent saying they would definitely not support him. Just 6 percent say the same for Cruz and 5 percent for Rubio, the lowest in the field.
i think the "could change their mind" survey is utter nonsense. when this question was asked of Walker supporters back in April, they said the same thing that they are now saying about Trump. when your candidate tanks, it has a way of shaping your attitudes. but if we believe the survey, then half of Trump's supporters are up for grabs, which would put him in 4th, right now. Could change their mind is probably the survey's way of trying to quantify how solid any candidates support is. As you point out, probably not that valuable.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 2, 2015 22:54:35 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 3, 2015 0:23:41 GMT -5
four years ago today, Newt Gingrich was on his way to taking a double digit lead over Romney. he was ahead of Romney by mid-December, and he heald that lead right up until January 3rd. he then fell all the way to 3rd, but was briefly ahead again in the week leading up to Iowa. after Iowa, he fell to a distant 3rd by Valentine's day, and never recovered. the "inevitable" has a way of becoming the "likely" in primaries.
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 3, 2015 1:38:47 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 4, 2015 13:33:35 GMT -5
Trump +14%, and at his peak of the campaign. hard to imagine what stops him right now.... Carson +4%, and sinking fast. latest poll puts him at his lowest level since September Cruz +0%, in a tie for third with Rubio, now. numbers still rising.....but he is way below Trump.... Rubio +9% above the cratering Bush.
this is happening faster than i thought. Rubio and Cruz have to move NOW, or they are going to be beaten.
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