verrip1
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Post by verrip1 on Jan 5, 2016 13:07:58 GMT -5
dj, I don't see how your previous posts would elicit that response. I rather expect to hear that it was a comment meant for another thread but that it got misplaced when having multiple windows open. I recall once when I did that and inadvertently created quite a maelstrom. I far prefer to have my maelstroms 'advertent'.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 5, 2016 13:11:43 GMT -5
dj, I don't see how your previous posts would elicit that response. I rather expect to hear that it was a comment meant for another thread but that it got misplaced when having multiple windows open. I recall once when I did that and inadvertently created quite a maelstrom. I far prefer to have my maelstroms 'advertent'. you're probably right. on the Trump thread i said he lacked humility and introspection. i suppose that COULD be lying, but i certainly didn't intend it to be.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 6, 2016 13:50:55 GMT -5
i was wondering if Trump would bring this up:
Although Trump last year appeared to abandon earlier suggestions about Cruz’s birth in Canada, he exhumed the issue in an interview with the Washington Post, saying it could be “very precarious” for Republicans were Cruz to win the party’s nomination for president.
“Republicans are going to have to ask themselves the question: ‘Do we want a candidate who could be tied up in court for two years?’ That’d be a big problem,” Trump told the Post.
it is good to see that he is consistent. by Trump's standard, Cruz is LESS qualified to be president than is Obama, because he doesn't even DENY that he was foreign born.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 6, 2016 22:34:38 GMT -5
Trump +15 Cruz +9 Rubio +1 Carson +5
Cruz is now at the magic 20%, making him only the FOURTH candidate this cycle to reach that level (the other three being Christie, Trump and Carson). furthermore, he is at the peak of his campaign, and trouncing Rubio.
Carson seems to have bottomed out, but he is still WAY out of 2nd, though he might catch Rubio, who is still falling: down 4% in the last month.
i really don't think anyone not mentioned above has a chance. one of the above listed is going to be the GOP candidate.
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 7, 2016 7:06:15 GMT -5
i was wondering if Trump would bring this up: Although Trump last year appeared to abandon earlier suggestions about Cruz’s birth in Canada, he exhumed the issue in an interview with the Washington Post, saying it could be “very precarious” for Republicans were Cruz to win the party’s nomination for president.
“Republicans are going to have to ask themselves the question: ‘Do we want a candidate who could be tied up in court for two years?’ That’d be a big problem,” Trump told the Post. it is good to see that he is consistent. by Trump's standard, Cruz is LESS qualified to be president than is Obama, because he doesn't even DENY that he was foreign born. Senator McCain also piped in on Cruz and the Canadian birth issue. Said it needs to be clarified. And he does not think much of Trump, so he has no horse in that race. Rand Paul yesterday said Cruz is very qualified for the job. The Prime Minister of Canada, that is Now we have to wait and see when the Democrats will retract the accusation of Trump is a racist because he backed the birther issue on Obama. He is an American who simply believes you have to be natural born citizen
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 7, 2016 10:43:04 GMT -5
i was wondering if Trump would bring this up: Although Trump last year appeared to abandon earlier suggestions about Cruz’s birth in Canada, he exhumed the issue in an interview with the Washington Post, saying it could be “very precarious” for Republicans were Cruz to win the party’s nomination for president.
“Republicans are going to have to ask themselves the question: ‘Do we want a candidate who could be tied up in court for two years?’ That’d be a big problem,” Trump told the Post. it is good to see that he is consistent. by Trump's standard, Cruz is LESS qualified to be president than is Obama, because he doesn't even DENY that he was foreign born. Senator McCain also piped in on Cruz and the Canadian birth issue. Said it needs to be clarified. And he does not think much of Trump, so he has no horse in that race. Rand Paul yesterday said Cruz is very qualified for the job. The Prime Minister of Canada, that is Now we have to wait and see when the Democrats will retract the accusation of Trump is a racist because he backed the birther issue on Obama. He is an American who simply believes you have to be natural born citizen but he IS a natural born citizen. Trump's objection to Obama was not that he was born in Hawaii to a Kenyan father, it was that he was born in Kenya. Cruz, however, is not, by that standard. and it is not even debatable, by the Trump standard. so, yeah, it does look kinda racist to me. then again, i don't agree that you have to be born in the US to be a "natural born" citizen. the standard for natural born is covered under USC 8.1401, and Obama and Cruz both meet that standard. of course, Trump doesn't agree with USC 8.1401, and that is fine. it is a free country.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 7, 2016 11:15:45 GMT -5
so, 25 days before Iowa in 2008, it was still Giuliani that had the commanding lead. he had held a lead of over 5% for (10) months, and most people were assuming he would just cruise to the nomination....however..... Huckabee was making a serious run at him at this point in the campaign. Giuliani's numbers had fallen below 30%, and Huck was at 19% (about where Cruz is now). Huck would go on to win Iowa, which made Rudy appear very weak, and Rudy then failed to win a single primary. if we contrast that to this year, Trump's support has not really deteriorated. yet. at this juncture i think it is safe to assume that Trump is going to get SOME delegates. that is not certain, but it is likely. the best that any non-Trump supporter can hope is that their candidate does well enough in Iowa and/or NH to compete in the later primaries. for Trump, i think a lot rides on NH. if he fails to win that state, things will go very badly for him.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 7, 2016 11:44:34 GMT -5
25 days before the Iowa primary in 2012, it was
NEWT! with a commanding 13% lead in national polls. we all remember how well that went for him.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 8, 2016 21:25:22 GMT -5
new poll out with Fox, and it shows something hopeful if you are an "anything other than Trump" person. Trump lost ground to both Rubio and Cruz:
Trump +13 Cruz +9 Rubio +2 Carson +6
so, it is still a four candidate race, but Cruz continues his winning streak. he is now running over 20%, and within 13%.
if we cherry pick the data a bit, Cruz has cut Trump's lead from 19% to 13% in (2) weeks. extrapolating the 4+ weeks we have until NH, and it is POSSIBLE that Cruz would be tied with Trump by NH.
Carson has clearly bottomed out. he is not going away, after all- and is not headed toward Bush/Christie land, which is bad news for Bush/Christie.
i am going to see if there are any new state polls, now, and do the 2008 comparison.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 8, 2016 21:33:13 GMT -5
the Iowa poll reflects the national poll, in terms of movement. Cruz and Rubio both gaining ground and Trump losing it:
Cruz +4 Trump +15 Rubio +3 Carson +4
again, i don't see any way that one of these guys does not win Iowa. my money would be on Cruz. the polling averages are identical to the last poll, which indicates that he has a small, but solid lead over Trump. this coupled with the fact that Trump has been losing ground to Cruz in Iowa for FOUR MONTHS (no, i am not kidding, he lead Cruz by 20% in September), and that Cruz actually has a ground game and knows how to politic says he stands a very good chance of winning.
in 2008, Huckabee lead Iowa by 6% (24) days before the primary, and won.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 8, 2016 21:40:01 GMT -5
for those of you wondering about NH, there is new polling there, but it is no different than the old polling, which shows little movement. Trump still leads by a wide margin, with Rubio in 2nd. there has been basically no movement in NH in the last month.
the same was true in 2008, where Romney held a 16% lead a month before the primary, with Guiliani in 2nd. neither of them won.
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ken a.k.a OMK
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Jan 8, 2016 21:45:34 GMT -5
djAdvocate I appreciate you breaking it down for me. I don't follow politics to the extent some here do.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2016 21:47:31 GMT -5
Bernie/Warren!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 9, 2016 0:19:54 GMT -5
djAdvocate I appreciate you breaking it down for me. I don't follow politics to the extent some here do. thanks. but the truth of it is that i spend a lot of time second guessing myself using FACTS. let me explain that. if you were to ask me, before i looked into the recent history of the nominating process, whether a 16% lead in NH (32) days before the primary virtually guaranteed a win (like....over 80% chance), i would probably have said yes. the truth is, it is less than 60%. and yeah, even with that big a lead. but furthermore, the most recent parallel example was 2008- a primary that was lost not only by the front-runner, but the guy in second. think about that for a second. how many people would take Cruz to win NH right now? ANY? but that is what happened in 2008. so, yeah, it is a humbling exercise in questioning your own intuition, and the constant ASSAULT of "TRUMP CAN'T BE DEFEATED" that we are getting right now. i think it is funny that shoob and others are accusing me of being down on Trump. i am not. i am just seeing something different than they are. i will explain my entire thinking later, but for now, it is fun seeing people that are absolutely positive that he will win, without any vision of any possibility that he might not. it is rather amazing. and it shows incredibly poor hindsight. NOTE: he might win, OK? that is totally possible. i would give him 2:7 odds if he were ahead in Iowa. being behind in Iowa, i give him 1:7 odds.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 9, 2016 18:18:43 GMT -5
holy crap! this is a really WEIRD poll result! the latest NH poll:
Trump +20 Bush +0 Kasich +1 Christie +1 Cruz +1 Rubio +4
so, basically there is Trump and a FIVE WAY TIE FOR SECOND. but that is not the most surprising thing. the most surprising is that the five are upside down from the national polls: Bush and Kasich are tied for second.
you heard me right.
BUSH AND KASICH.
so, i am going to apologize to Virgil. once. Bush is not quite dead yet. his latest poll is his best in 5 months, and his best polling average since October. it is not an anomaly. it is actually happening. it appears to only be happening in NH right now, but that could certainly change.
i think the state polls are going to get very dynamic from this point forward.
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 12, 2016 14:57:07 GMT -5
Well some of the polls this morning were interesting Trump is not going anywhere but up.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 12, 2016 15:13:03 GMT -5
Well some of the polls this morning were interesting Trump is not going anywhere but up. the IBD poll? no, he was down 1% in that poll, and is now below 35% morever, that poll shows 15% are undecided, which is bad news for him. if you were looking at some other poll, let me know.
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Post by billisonboard on Jan 12, 2016 15:14:16 GMT -5
Well some of the polls this morning were interesting Trump is not going anywhere but up. The only poll I found from today is Iowa and it does show Trump is up to 27% from 26.8% but that is down from his recent high of 27.8% and below his September 19th, 2015 pinnacle of 28.3%. So you got a link to something else?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 12, 2016 15:19:38 GMT -5
Well some of the polls this morning were interesting Trump is not going anywhere but up. The only poll I found from today is Iowa and it does show Trump is up to 27% from 26.8% but that is down from his recent high of 27.8% and below his September 19th, 2015 pinnacle of 28.3%. So you got a link to something else? i was referring to the new national poll by IBD. i have no idea what VB was talking about. he didn't specify.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 12, 2016 15:46:51 GMT -5
if this is about Iowa, here are the results for the last two cycles at this point in the campaign:
in 2012, Gingrich was +12%, and lost in 2008, Huckabee was +12%, and won this year is a tie.
all bets are off.
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 12, 2016 16:12:01 GMT -5
The only poll I found from today is Iowa and it does show Trump is up to 27% from 26.8% but that is down from his recent high of 27.8% and below his September 19th, 2015 pinnacle of 28.3%. So you got a link to something else? i was referring to the new national poll by IBD. i have no idea what VB was talking about. he didn't specify. Ibd and Monmouth
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 12, 2016 16:16:30 GMT -5
i was referring to the new national poll by IBD. i have no idea what VB was talking about. he didn't specify. Ibd and Monmouth IBD shows no accretion for him. but it does show that most of his competitors are not doing well. save one: none of the above.
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Post by tallguy on Jan 12, 2016 20:36:55 GMT -5
IBD shows no accretion for him. but it does show that most of his competitors are not doing well. save one: none of the above. Definitely their best choice.
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Post by fishy999 on Jan 13, 2016 0:37:35 GMT -5
I agree with Obama- the only way I see a Trump State of the Union is via an SNL skit Obama took shots at him and I think the GOP appreciated it.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2016 0:46:46 GMT -5
We need a dem thread. Bernie earned the MoveOn endorsement...
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Post by fishy999 on Jan 13, 2016 0:53:58 GMT -5
Going to double down- Trump is at the same time some kind of a hero to people that work for a living and the worst possible president for them- hence why his support is based on uneducated, low earning, older white people. If I am wrong on this I am sure I will be corrected- but this asshat had a privileged life, ducked Vietnam, started his 'empire' thanks to 100 million handed to him from his dad, ran 4 companies into bankruptcy (which means he was not out a dime while people he 'paid' to to do jobs got fucked (middle class folks- construction, electricians, etc.). Even relatively rich people know better than to deal with him- he's screwed over so many people he is toxic to anyone wanting to invest money- yet the poor idiots think he is some kind of hero What a sad world- David Bowie died and this POS is still stealing oxygen.
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 13, 2016 7:59:53 GMT -5
We need a dem thread. Bernie earned the MoveOn endorsement... Yeh, latest polls this morning showed Hillary sinking fast and Bernie burying her in NH by something like fourteen points. Iowa, he was within 4 points.
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 13, 2016 8:03:02 GMT -5
Okay, this morning poll release
NY Times national poll Trump 36 +1 Cruz 19 +3
Bloomberg Iowa poll Trump 22 +1 Cruz 25 - 6
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 14, 2016 12:36:02 GMT -5
We need a dem thread. Bernie earned the MoveOn endorsement... I think he also won the endorsement of the magazine, "The Nation" to the chagrin of Hillary.
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Post by happyhoix on Jan 14, 2016 15:19:11 GMT -5
We need a dem thread. Bernie earned the MoveOn endorsement... We do need a Dem thread. Elizabeth Warren hasn't endorsed anyone yet. Interesting to see if Warren will risk pissing off Hillary, who is still, statistically, the most likely to get the Dem nomination, by picking Sanders? If she does pick Sanders, would there be a Warren Bounce and if so, how big?
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