joemilitary
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Post by joemilitary on Jul 4, 2015 21:48:27 GMT -5
and how do you think it will influence the markets (to make it money related)---if this is the wrong place to post this, please move it.....
ETA on 25 Jul : originally this thread was before the referendum, and we discussed how the vote would go.....however now we know how the vote went
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marvholly
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Post by marvholly on Jul 5, 2015 6:07:18 GMT -5
from what I have heard on the news & read in various articles the wording of the referendum is VERY confusing. I don't think the Greek people have a clue what a vote, either way, actually means.
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mroped
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Post by mroped on Jul 5, 2015 6:38:57 GMT -5
Depends a lot on what the priests tell them at the morning service!
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Jul 5, 2015 9:11:46 GMT -5
leading up to the vote it seemed both sides were even ....so if the vote follows the run up it may be a 51 /49 % which really doesn't give the PM a one way or the other way to make his decision..possible government will fall....start all over again...
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 5, 2015 11:07:13 GMT -5
Either way is not good for the Greeks.
Yes and the government falls....and they still face austerity.
No......and the banks run out of money very soon... and they leave the Euro
Its a bit close to call.....but personally I think they are leaving the Euro
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mroped
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Post by mroped on Jul 5, 2015 11:18:51 GMT -5
Exit polls and before hand polls(phone polls) put the Greek population at above 50% saying no to austerity measures that are necessary to start fixing the problems. So far, apparently about 65% of population showed up to vote
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 5, 2015 12:55:51 GMT -5
Looks like its going to be a no vote.
If those banks don't open on Tuesday.... because they don't manage to extend a liquidity loan from the European Central Bank.
The people won't be able to get money. There will be riots.....and they'll have to go back to their own currency and devalue.
What's the solution....who knows.
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mroped
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Post by mroped on Jul 5, 2015 12:59:01 GMT -5
They were talking about a $1.7 billion that they would have to pay in order not to default. Americans spend more than that for candy at Holloween!
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 5, 2015 13:30:20 GMT -5
Yes...its been quite hard for them with the austerity measures for the last few years. but their public sector is too big and they just keep living beyond their means.
They have recently been portraying Germany to be like Nazis....(because they are some of the creditors) One politician called them terrorists, ..........but German tax payers have contributed over 50 billion Euros...I'm not sure they want to give any more.
and given the mocking and hostility by the Greek government towards them....its difficult to see how they could negotiate another settlement with the EU.
The Greeks ought to take responsibility for mismanaging their own economy and not keep trying to blame someone else. They are in for a hard time either way.
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Jul 5, 2015 13:49:02 GMT -5
So far "No" is in the lead.... I don't know what they expect to happen!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 13:57:38 GMT -5
After the week they have had, I thought "yes" would win. Wow. They import most things, I don't know what they are going to do without money. How are they going to import meds? What is going to happen when the ATM's run dry?
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Jul 5, 2015 14:00:42 GMT -5
After the week they have had, I thought "yes" would win. Wow. They import most things, I don't know what they are going to do without money. How are they going to import meds? What is going to happen when the ATM's run dry? Their prime minister sold them on the idea that a NO would give them a stronger negotiating hand. After all, how do you force someone that has nothing to lose to your demand? No is basically that, they got nothing to lose and it cannot get much worse.
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workpublic
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Post by workpublic on Jul 5, 2015 14:33:48 GMT -5
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 5, 2015 14:52:14 GMT -5
They have got something to lose. Half a pension is better than no pension at all. What are they going to do if the economy collapses?....they will have no money, no petrol, no food.
Why would the ECB give them any more money? They have not indicated that they will do this.
Nobody trusts the Greek government.....so how are they supposed to negotiate their way out of this.
Putin has been making sympathetic noises......but there is not a lot of spare money in Russia at the moment. I doubt he could afford a bail out.
Dunno. I suppose they'll have to come to some kind of agreement one way or the other The rest of Europe isn't going to like to see people in difficulty on our TVs.
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Jul 5, 2015 14:55:05 GMT -5
They did not bring a lot cash, prepaid for the hotels etc; that could have easily been my wife and I. My last vacation we only had $100 on us, and that is because I stopped at the bank in case some small shops/ souvenir places do not accept credit cards: everything was charged on the credit card or debit card. They saved for a year for the vacation, they have the money, they cannot access it. Not their fault!
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kent
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Post by kent on Jul 5, 2015 15:07:51 GMT -5
from what I have heard on the news & read in various articles the wording of the referendum is VERY confusing. I don't think the Greek people have a clue what a vote, either way, actually means. Making it confusing is the game plan I don't think many Greeks actually know what they are voting on.
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kent
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Post by kent on Jul 5, 2015 15:11:11 GMT -5
leading up to the vote it seemed both sides were even ....so if the vote follows the run up it may be a 51 /49 % which really doesn't give the PM a one way or the other way to make his decision..possible government will fall....start all over again... Sadly, the U.S. is headed in the same direction - everything voted on is such a close call, absolutely nothing gets accomplished other than another round of the hit show, Blame Game.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 5, 2015 15:11:56 GMT -5
f(*k austerity.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 5, 2015 15:12:45 GMT -5
leading up to the vote it seemed both sides were even ....so if the vote follows the run up it may be a 51 /49 % which really doesn't give the PM a one way or the other way to make his decision..possible government will fall....start all over again... Sadly, the U.S. is headed in the same direction - everything voted on is such a close call, absolutely nothing gets accomplished other than another round of the hit show, Blame Game. i would bet every cent i have that you are wrong. we are NOT headed the same direction. moreover, we have been here before. in 1941. we will come back. i am totally confident.
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kent
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Post by kent on Jul 5, 2015 15:20:28 GMT -5
Sadly, the U.S. is headed in the same direction - everything voted on is such a close call, absolutely nothing gets accomplished other than another round of the hit show, Blame Game. i would bet every cent i have that you are wrong. we are NOT headed the same direction. moreover, we have been here before. in 1941. we will come back. i am totally confident. DJ, I hope with every fiber of my body the you are right about this - I just see it differently. It seems you can't get ten out of ten people to agree the sun is going to come out tomorrow (hmmm....there may be a song in there somewhere)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 15:29:34 GMT -5
I am not seeing the upside for the EU to negotiate with Greece at this point.
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Jul 5, 2015 15:36:33 GMT -5
I am not seeing the upside for the EU to negotiate with Greece at this point. There is no win-win options Just "shitty" and "shittier" options. Greece is the country version of a person that have maxed out all their credits and no bank is willing to loan them any money. -> either buckle down an pay down debt -> file bankruptcy / default and crawl your way back to a good credit
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 5, 2015 15:49:49 GMT -5
i would bet every cent i have that you are wrong. we are NOT headed the same direction. moreover, we have been here before. in 1941. we will come back. i am totally confident. DJ, I hope with every fiber of my body the you are right about this - I just see it differently. It seems you can't get ten out of ten people to agree the sun is going to come out tomorrow (hmmm....there may be a song in there somewhere) if so, then the government will stagnate. in the mean time, revenues will continue to rise, and the budget should come into balance. right? a worse outcome would be that they coordinate enough to spend massive amounts of money.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 16:04:23 GMT -5
Isn't something like one third of Greece's economy black market or off the books? How does that affect things? They could easily start using bitcoins or cash for payment. Could they just continue on?
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Jul 5, 2015 16:48:16 GMT -5
It's official: NO
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 5, 2015 16:48:32 GMT -5
Yes it is, there is a huge amount of corruption....but they have just let that continue instead of chasing taxes.
Other countries have been in trouble......We gave Ireland a big bailout a few years back and prices over there went really high...but they sorted it out and have gotten on their feet. They and others will be wondering why Greece has had special treatment.... and still wants more.
We'll have to see what happens in the next couple of days..........but Greece has taken a huge gamble and the outcome is unclear.
The Euro is falling.
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Jul 5, 2015 16:53:33 GMT -5
Now we wait.... Anyone wants to guess the outcome?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 5, 2015 17:00:40 GMT -5
uncertainty is bad for equities and good for precious metals, so i am guessing that global stock markets will drop and gold will go up.
edit: if you meant with regard to Greece, i think that it is fairly obvious what happens from here. Greece will attempt to negotiate debt settlement outside of the Eurozone. it could go very badly, or it could go quite well for them, depending on how well it is resolved. and no, i have no predictions about that. what GERMANY does is really where the rubber hits the road.
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Jul 5, 2015 17:02:49 GMT -5
1€ = $1.0989 Expected it to fall further
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 5, 2015 17:04:49 GMT -5
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