Greece and EU agree on referendum, will it save Greece?

[Ombud]

Jul 6, 2015 22:31:21 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 6, 2015 22:15:06 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Greece did not make the €1.5b payment due to the IMF by 6/30/15. IMF considers them in the arrears in that they aren't paying / is rearranging (ignoring) payment without IMF agreement. Isn't that defaulting on the loan? The next payment (€3.5b) is due to the ECB by 7/20/15. What are they paying that with?

then why are they offering to help?

you are saying two different things, Ombud.

Greece defaulted. IMF will offer help but not loans bc they cannot do so under their regs. I never said they'd loan money. Greece owes something like 18b this year with only 5b going into default within these 3 weeks. Would you want your gov't (Finland, Germany, USA) to cut them slack? Or rip the bandaid off in a hurry and get it over with?

[Ombud]

Jul 6, 2015 20:08:37 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Greek vote had nothing to do with China's slump.

IMF is not providing more money to Greece as they cannot loan to a debtor nation who defaults (to them?). (Cn link in phone)

Washington Reuters

IMF can lend moral support / guidance / nonfinancial assistance but that's it

Where did I say IMF was loaning Greece money or guaranteeing another loan??

[djAdvocate]

Jul 6, 2015 22:37:36 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Jul 6, 2015 22:31:21 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

then why are they offering to help?

you are saying two different things, Ombud.

Greece defaulted. IMF will offer help but not loans bc they cannot do so under their regs. I never said they'd loan money. Greece owes something like 18b this year with only 5b going into default within these 3 weeks. Would you want your gov't (Finland, Germany, USA) to cut them slack? Or rip the bandaid off in a hurry and get it over with?

oh, sorry- my mistake.  i thought you said the IMF won't work with them if they are "in default".  my apologies.

and yeah, i think intent to pay is a huge deal- having dealt with clients that eventually ended up in BK.

[Ombud]

Yeah its complicated. Greece thinks having been the land that formalized philosophy gives them a free pass. The rest of the world (ex Russia who is experiencing their own financial demise) thinks those who pay their bills gets cut slack when necessary (Ireland)

[djAdvocate]

Jul 6, 2015 22:48:10 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Yeah its complicated. Greece thinks having been the land that formalized philosophy gives them a free pass. The rest of the world (ex Russia who is experiencing their own financial demise) thinks those who pay their bills gets cut slack when necessary (Ireland)

for the record, i think the IMF is an extortion racket.  so, i am not terribly sympathetic to either side in this debate.

[tskeeter]

Jul 6, 2015 19:18:38 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 6, 2015 16:38:00 GMT -5 tskeeter said:

I must have missed something.  How has the IMF caved in?

Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement today:

"The IMF has taken note of yesterday’s referendum held in Greece. We are monitoring the situation closely and stand ready to assist Greece if requested to do so."

aka "we have no intention of hanging them out to dry".

I think that's primarily politician speak.  As things have developed Tuesday, it looks like Tsipris is continuing to blow smoke up the IMF's collective behinds.  Making commitments and then not living up to them.  The bits I'm seeing indicates that the IMF finance ministers are quickly running out of patience with the games that Tsipris is playing.  At some point, they will have no further interest in helping Greece and they will let the cards fall as they may.

[deziloooooo]

I believe..and I am no financial whiz so this is just my surmising...for what ever the reason , Greece is in so deep..with limited potential to do any better in increasing nations wealth..vs such States as Germany for example..USA too...that they will never in anyones' life time be able to pay off this  debt ..principal and especially as interest keeps mounting...

As far as creditors..either take a complete hit and walk away suffer the consequences which I believe will be massive..for all parties and world wide too..or step back , take a deep breath..do some %$&^# under the breath and then sit down with their financial people..actuaries , who ever , and come up with a # that is feasable and a time span that Greece should be able to meet...this way keeping Greece in the euro and the creditors getting some thing back of the principal that is owed..forget any interest..that is not going to happen.

Greece..it's people..should be allowed to see a increase in living standards and get away from complete austerity that they have been in for more then five years...just too much...but still not be gotten scot free either...past leadership,  long gone , are no more ..who got them into this mess..average Greek too..especially the older generation who elected them...at fault too but younger generation who had no say in their leadership are the innocents here and as in all societies ..the younger generation is a counties future so they must be considered..must have hope in their life time ..and not when the are old and grey..but now.

or as I see it anyway...

[Ombud]

deziloooooo, haven't run the numbers on Germany but Greece owes Finland €5b. Their annual GDP is €50b. So a 1 time hit could be handled. Handing over another 5b then possibly not getting anything back (track record) wouldn't be handled well.
5b Finland
37b Italy (part of PIIGS)
25b Spain (also part of PIIGS)
100b Germany and France
32b IMF
20b ECB

323b total

Greece still let's populace retire on full pension @ 50. Shocking isn't it?

[deziloooooo]

The latest reaction after Greek gov't proposed their ideas of relief and changes in benefits for Greek people..including raising age for retirement from 50..[they had to be kidding..] to 65 and some other red line items..red items no longer but seems not enough for the Euro minister types..


america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/7/11/greeks-in-brussels-for-crucial-talks-with-creditors.html


Fact is, I still feel that what Greece owes is so much they will never under any cercumstancs beyond putting whole country population into servatude for long decades , be able to be paid off...must cut the interest and principal owed down to the bone...IMHO...or just let them leave Euro and forfeit..

[djAdvocate]

Jul 8, 2015 20:00:34 GMT -5 Ombud said:

deziloooooo, haven't run the numbers on Germany but Greece owes Finland €5b. Their annual GDP is €50b. So a 1 time hit could be handled. Handing over another 5b then possibly not getting anything back (track record) wouldn't be handled well.
5b Finland
37b Italy (part of PIIGS)
25b Spain (also part of PIIGS)
100b Germany and France
32b IMF
20b ECB

323b total

Greece still let's populace retire on full pension @ 50. Shocking isn't it?

they recently proposed to raise that to 67- and this was the SOCIALIST government.

[Ombud]

So now they're asking for up to €74 and proposing a 23% VAT. That'll hit tourists hard. At least Ryanair is trying to soften that blow

[djAdvocate]

Jul 12, 2015 0:26:36 GMT -5 Ombud said:

So now they're asking for up to €74 and proposing a 23% VAT. That'll hit tourists hard. At least Ryanair is trying to soften that blow

i like RyanAir, but i still can't figure out how they do what they do......

[Deleted]

I'm confused. I thought they voted no.

Now they are looking for a yes.

What was the purpose of the vote?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 12, 2015 23:00:32 GMT -5 @xmascookie said:

I'm confused. I thought they voted no.

Now they are looking for a yes.

What was the purpose of the vote?

independence.

now they get to dictate their own terms, to a degree not possible just taking the IMF's offer.

[marvholly]

Jul 12, 2015 23:02:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 12, 2015 23:00:32 GMT -5 @xmascookie said:

I'm confused. I thought they voted no.

Now they are looking for a yes.

What was the purpose of the vote?

independence.

now they get to dictate their own terms, to a degree not possible just taking the IMF's offer.

The Greek people & gov ‘thought’ they would be able to dictate better terms. From what I am seeing on the news & reading (WSJ) they are getting hit MUCH harder than the original bailout terms. IMHO: Germany and several other nations have HAD IT! Also the EU finance ministers do NOT want to set such a (bad) precedent.

[Deleted]

How does raising the working age accomplish anything when unemployment is 25%? .. And it's even higher, 1 in 2? In ages18-24... Raising the age of retirement would just put even more younger people in the unemployment catagory...

[djAdvocate]

Jul 13, 2015 5:40:10 GMT -5 marvholly said:

Jul 12, 2015 23:02:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

independence.

now they get to dictate their own terms, to a degree not possible just taking the IMF's offer.

The Greek people & gov ‘thought’ they would be able to dictate better terms. From what I am seeing on the news & reading (WSJ) they are getting hit MUCH harder than the original bailout terms. IMHO: Germany and several other nations have HAD IT! Also the EU finance ministers do NOT want to set such a (bad) precedent.

you missed the point.  the point was not to get "better" terms, financially speaking.

and i get that.  i really do.  i have OFTEN negotiated a deal where i had control of the terms and was willing to PAY for that privilege.  not unusual.

[Spellbound454]

They haven't got better terms.....Its a lot worse than the deal offered 15 days ago....and then its on condition.

but then... in those 15 days the Greek economy has tanked and they are poorer than they were.

The PM still has to sell it to the Greek parliament (they will accept)

The people can dislike austerity as much as they want.... and vote and protest as much as they want.... but its banks and business which calls the shots

and if they have no money.....they have no money and there is no economy.

Anti austerity marches are a waste of time......No-one actually likes it but its not being done for sh*ts and giggles

Its being done to balance the books........and Greece simply cannot tax and spend its way out of this.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 13, 2015 16:56:03 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

They haven't got better terms.....I

i said that, SB.  they didn't reject the offer for BETTER TERMS.

[deziloooooo]

I had a thought ...and admit, no financial whiz at all..especially on these type figures..BUT..

I understand Greece owes over $325 billion { not counting the $96 billion more that is supposedly the new amount to be given to help out their banking mess for the next three years..}

Besides it's tourist industry, about $30 something billion per year..there really not much of a industry base here ..some agriculture..olive oil,,possible cheeses..etc..but nothing really substantial..a small country, basically small population..

IMHO , never really able to pay off their debt..considering interest..{ on a debt that size  not a small thing..and I understand it is not far from market rates..} and of course the principal...in the life time of most of the middle age and young , possible never being able to be paid off , so all population has to look forward to, IMHO..is little  growth, continue unemployment..{ supposedly 25% plus young people of working age..1 out of 2 unable to find work..}

Why not just declare bankruptcy..default and put those yearly billions that are to be used to pay off the interest and debt toward the economy..the country itself..Yes still needed reforms...pensions have to be reduced, retirement definitely has to be up to Europeon standards..65 or so...tax collections have to be better done..possible a larger government burarcracy of tax collectors..other such doings too.

I know, need cash right now for banks and such..but I wonder if some of these wealthy countries who are cash rich..the Saudis..China..Emerits...even Western Banks..if given good returns...with no heavy debt on their shoulder...eliminated by defaulting..with the reforms and more mentioned...basically the government, country just restart...

My thinking...tourists would still come and if financial see a way to get a better return then normal  with less baggage carrying asset..they , Greeks, might find they are better off then this bail out plan that just seems to increase their beholden debt...Just a thought...

[marvholly]

One of the requirements of this new bailout is that the Greek legislature pass a whole bunch of VERY strict austerity measures/budgeting stuff within a VERY short time frame (<a week). I am skeptical that they will. What happens then?

Also, I believe the gov is using a bunch of their antiquities as collateral. Bothers me.  Suspect it bothers the legislators & 'man' on the street. 

[Spellbound454]

I had a thought ...and admit, no financial whiz at all..especially on these type figures..BUT..

Yes that's the other option....default, leave the Euro and the EU

They would change to the Drachma.... which when floated against the Euro would lose up to 60% of its value.

Things would get better after a very bleak period but.......given that the Greek economy was not in good shape when they joined the Euro

and they fudged the extent of their debt to get in

I wouldn't hold out that they would ever be any better off....without the structural change that the EZ is demanding.

As for antiquities...I don't think they are selling the Parthenon

TV mentioned a dockyard which would be managed by someone else and run by Greeks.

[djAdvocate]

shipping and tourism are all they have.  if they sell the shipping industry, they become a chattel economy.  it is a fatal mistake that many second tier nations make.  i will pray they don't make it, but they just might.

[Value Buy]

Jul 12, 2015 0:12:54 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jul 8, 2015 20:00:34 GMT -5 Ombud said:

deziloooooo, haven't run the numbers on Germany but Greece owes Finland €5b. Their annual GDP is €50b. So a 1 time hit could be handled. Handing over another 5b then possibly not getting anything back (track record) wouldn't be handled well.
5b Finland
37b Italy (part of PIIGS)
25b Spain (also part of PIIGS)
100b Germany and France
32b IMF
20b ECB

323b total

Greece still let's populace retire on full pension @ 50. Shocking isn't it?

they recently proposed to raise that to 67- and this was the SOCIALIST government.

I never saw this.
Can you supply a source for this.

I am not questioning the statement, I just never saw that.

thanks 

[djAdvocate]

Jul 14, 2015 11:34:53 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jul 12, 2015 0:12:54 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

they recently proposed to raise that to 67- and this was the SOCIALIST government.

I never saw this.
Can you supply a source for this.

I am not questioning the statement, I just never saw that.

thanks 

i heard it on NPR 2 days ago when i was driving around town.

[joemilitary]

I guess this is all resolved now?

[djAdvocate]

Jul 18, 2015 15:01:13 GMT -5 joemilitary said:

I guess this is all resolved now?

nah.  it is still a huge mess.

[marvholly]

It IS resolved for the short term, immediate future. However, like most governmental decisions (including my county, state & federal) it has just be kicked down the road to rear it's ugly head in a year or 3.

[djAdvocate]

Jul 19, 2015 5:43:09 GMT -5 marvholly said:

It IS resolved for the short term, immediate future. However, like most governmental decisions (including my county, state & federal) it has just be kicked down the road to rear it's ugly head in a year or 3.

when debt is growing less than GDP, it is no longer "kicking the can down the road".

[joemilitary]

So will the Greeks be selling naming rights anytime soon?

Like the Amazon Acropolis?