Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 5, 2015 17:16:58 GMT -5
Greece seems to want to call the shots with regards to negotiations.........Erm.....It has nothing to negotiate with.
People don't matter....its banking and business which will decide. and the rumblings tonight look a bit bleak.
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kent
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Post by kent on Jul 5, 2015 17:19:17 GMT -5
Adding to that (in part):
The comments following the above in part quote are somewhat priceless to say the least.
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Jul 5, 2015 17:22:51 GMT -5
Link?
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Jul 5, 2015 18:05:39 GMT -5
I found a link that I'll post below, TheHaitian. kent, when you copy paste and excerpt or article, you must post a link to the full article. It's a matter of copyright. In future, I will remove any article copy/pasted in this manner without a link. mmhmm, Administrator HERE YOU GO WITH A LINK
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deziloooooo
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Post by deziloooooo on Jul 5, 2015 18:17:02 GMT -5
As reported above a No vote..actually a resounding .."NO " vote..65% voting no ...with 93% of the vote in.. Surprising to me and now we have to sit back and see what it really means... I would guess that Europeon creditors will try and make a better deal..giving in to some of the demands of the Greeks to not make it so hard on them to get their house in order but one never knows... www.courant.com/nation-world/ct-greece-bailout-referendum-20150705-story.html#page=1
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kent
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Post by kent on Jul 5, 2015 19:06:35 GMT -5
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kent
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Post by kent on Jul 5, 2015 19:09:31 GMT -5
I found a link that I'll post below, TheHaitian. kent, when you copy paste and excerpt or article, you must post a link to the full article. It's a matter of copyright. In future, I will remove any article copy/pasted in this manner without a link. mmhmm, Administrator HERE YOU GO WITH A LINK
I know that - it was just an oversight and has been corrected (sort of)
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Jul 5, 2015 19:16:02 GMT -5
I found a link that I'll post below, TheHaitian. kent, when you copy paste and excerpt or article, you must post a link to the full article. It's a matter of copyright. In future, I will remove any article copy/pasted in this manner without a link. mmhmm, Administrator HERE YOU GO WITH A LINK
I know that - it was just an oversight and has been corrected (sort of) S'okay. Just reminding you. It really can cause problems when links are forgotten.
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marvholly
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Post by marvholly on Jul 6, 2015 5:08:07 GMT -5
uncertainty is bad for equities and good for precious metals, so i am guessing that global stock markets will drop and gold will go up. edit: if you meant with regard to Greece, i think that it is fairly obvious what happens from here. Greece will attempt to negotiate debt settlement outside of the Eurozone. it could go very badly, or it could go quite well for them, depending on how well it is resolved. and no, i have no predictions about that. what GERMANY does is really where the rubber hits the road. My expectations:
Greek PM thought he would be able to negotiate a 'better' deal. WRONG!!!! US & world stock markets will tank - guesstimate at least 25% this week German PM has a stainless steel spine & she has HAD IT! NO to sending more good $ after bad for her France is pretty much on the same page as Germany, at least right now EU does NOT want to set such a precedent - too many other countries (Italy, Spain, Portugal) on the edge
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Jul 6, 2015 5:41:14 GMT -5
The Minister of Finance resigned and he made it clear it wasn't by his own choice, more so he was forced to resign. So some believe that is the PM of Greece way to get o a deal fast since the other Ministers of Finances in euro hated his minister and wanted him gone. www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33406001
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2015 10:32:20 GMT -5
uncertainty is bad for equities and good for precious metals, so i am guessing that global stock markets will drop and gold will go up. edit: if you meant with regard to Greece, i think that it is fairly obvious what happens from here. Greece will attempt to negotiate debt settlement outside of the Eurozone. it could go very badly, or it could go quite well for them, depending on how well it is resolved. and no, i have no predictions about that. what GERMANY does is really where the rubber hits the road. My expectations:
Greek PM thought he would be able to negotiate a 'better' deal. WRONG!!!! US & world stock markets will tank - guesstimate at least 25% this week German PM has a stainless steel spine & she has HAD IT! NO to sending more good $ after bad for her France is pretty much on the same page as Germany, at least right now EU does NOT want to set such a precedent - too many other countries (Italy, Spain, Portugal) on the edge
the stock market has been long overdue for a correction. what is this? a 6 year bull market? but i doubt it will be 25% this week.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Jul 6, 2015 10:45:20 GMT -5
My expectations:
Greek PM thought he would be able to negotiate a 'better' deal. WRONG!!!! US & world stock markets will tank - guesstimate at least 25% this week German PM has a stainless steel spine & she has HAD IT! NO to sending more good $ after bad for her France is pretty much on the same page as Germany, at least right now EU does NOT want to set such a precedent - too many other countries (Italy, Spain, Portugal) on the edge
the stock market has been long overdue for a correction. what is this? a 6 year bull market? but i doubt it will be 25% this week. Hasn't the market been sort of expecting this for 3 years now? I keep seeing (no links, sorry) stuff on how the US shouldn't see too much dropping because the exposure to this is sort of muted already. (don't you love my financial terms?!)
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2015 10:53:16 GMT -5
the stock market has been long overdue for a correction. what is this? a 6 year bull market? but i doubt it will be 25% this week. Hasn't the market been sort of expecting this for 3 years now? I keep seeing (no links, sorry) stuff on how the US shouldn't see too much dropping because the exposure to this is sort of muted already. (don't you love my financial terms?!) totally. this story is so old that the market is actually WEARY of it. the market was down 0.4% in early trading. hardly a panic.
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Jul 6, 2015 11:40:43 GMT -5
Either way is not good for the Greeks.
Yes and the government falls....and they still face austerity.
No......and the banks run out of money very soon... and they leave the Euro
Its a bit close to call.....but personally I think they are leaving the Euro Vote yes, the government falls and austerity continues. Vote no, the banks run out of money, Greece leaves the Euro, complete economic collapse makes austerity the wonderful life we used to have, the government falls.
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Jul 6, 2015 11:49:23 GMT -5
After the week they have had, I thought "yes" would win. Wow. They import most things, I don't know what they are going to do without money. How are they going to import meds? What is going to happen when the ATM's run dry? Their prime minister sold them on the idea that a NO would give them a stronger negotiating hand. After all, how do you force someone that has nothing to lose to your demand? No is basically that, they got nothing to lose and it cannot get much worse. I think it can get a lot worse. Only, I don't think that many Greeks understand how bad it could get. Think about what would happen when a net importer of goods runs out of money and credit at the same time. Shortages of food, fuel, and all manner of consumable goods. A complete collapse of any form of central government because there is no money to pay for police, firemen, and all other forms of government services. I'm thinking that Somalia in the early 1990's could be a benchmark.
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Jul 6, 2015 12:05:43 GMT -5
DJ, I hope with every fiber of my body the you are right about this - I just see it differently. It seems you can't get ten out of ten people to agree the sun is going to come out tomorrow (hmmm....there may be a song in there somewhere) if so, then the government will stagnate. in the mean time, revenues will continue to rise, and the budget should come into balance. right? a worse outcome would be that they coordinate enough to spend massive amounts of money. I don't think that Greek revenues (GDP) will rise. Greece is a net importer of goods. Limited manufacturing or agriculture. (Greece used to be a big player in shipbuilding. No more. Asia is cheaper.) This has led to high levels of unemployment. Tax evasion is the Greek national sport. According to some reports, only about 40% of Greeks pay their taxes. A weaker economy is going to reduce tax revenues even more. I see no way for Greece to grow it's way out of the jam it's gotten itself into. Greece could declare itself bankrupt and stiff the creditors. That would make the debt payments go away. But Greece still needs outside money to exist. Given the bad rap Greece has created for itself, it would have to pay even more dearly than it does now, to borrow money after it has stiffed it's creditors.
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Jul 6, 2015 12:23:08 GMT -5
uncertainty is bad for equities and good for precious metals, so i am guessing that global stock markets will drop and gold will go up. edit: if you meant with regard to Greece, i think that it is fairly obvious what happens from here. Greece will attempt to negotiate debt settlement outside of the Eurozone. it could go very badly, or it could go quite well for them, depending on how well it is resolved. and no, i have no predictions about that. what GERMANY does is really where the rubber hits the road. My expectations:
Greek PM thought he would be able to negotiate a 'better' deal. WRONG!!!! US & world stock markets will tank - guesstimate at least 25% this week German PM has a stainless steel spine & she has HAD IT! NO to sending more good $ after bad for her France is pretty much on the same page as Germany, at least right now EU does NOT want to set such a precedent - too many other countries (Italy, Spain, Portugal) on the edge
I think that you've got this one pretty well dialed in. Worth noting that the German people seem to be behind Merkel. And that the cash cow countries of Europe seem to be unsympathetic since this situation is the result of decades of fiscal mismanagement by the governments that the Greek people have elected. And you are absolutely right that this isn't about Greece. It's really about the precedent that it would set for other less stable EU economies.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jul 6, 2015 13:15:39 GMT -5
It will be bad for a while, certainly. If Greece leaves the EZ....
The banks will close whilst they sort out their systems....and issue IOUs.....then any Euros in Greek banks will convert to drachmas ....like for like They will then float the drachma and it will devalue (up to 60%) anyone still trading in Euros will go bankrupt The people will have a hard winter.
Then next year we will all go to Greece for cheap holidays...and their economy will improve.
Anyway...Hollande and Merkel are sounding quite conciliatory on TV at the moment.... so perhaps they will deal after all.
but the structural problems have to be solved. They are not collecting taxes.... and expecting people in other countries to give them their taxes. No-one wants austerity but we have had it right across Europe so that we can balance our books. Welcome to the real world.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jul 6, 2015 13:31:06 GMT -5
Remember: The outcome of the referendum isn't binding. P.M. Tsapiras could (and very well might) sell out tomorrow. What I find fascinating is that the Greeks feel 100% morally justified in defaulting. Their logic: Germany defaulted on huge amounts of foreign-held debt going into WWI and WWII, so what right does Germany have to complain if Greece does it today? So there you go. All perfectly justified. Welcome to the new millennium. The ECB, on the other hand, is already toying with depositor bail-ins for repaying discounted Greek debt (basically like garnishing the Greeks' wages at the point of deposit), which may well have assured that Greece deserts the union.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2015 13:34:12 GMT -5
My expectations:
Greek PM thought he would be able to negotiate a 'better' deal. WRONG!!!! US & world stock markets will tank - guesstimate at least 25% this week German PM has a stainless steel spine & she has HAD IT! NO to sending more good $ after bad for her France is pretty much on the same page as Germany, at least right now EU does NOT want to set such a precedent - too many other countries (Italy, Spain, Portugal) on the edge
I think that you've got this one pretty well dialed in. Worth noting that the German people seem to be behind Merkel. And that the cash cow countries of Europe seem to be unsympathetic since this situation is the result of decades of fiscal mismanagement by the governments that the Greek people have elected. And you are absolutely right that this isn't about Greece. It's really about the precedent that it would set for other less stable EU economies. in what sense is it "well dialed in"? the IMF already caved in.
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Jul 6, 2015 16:38:00 GMT -5
I think that you've got this one pretty well dialed in. Worth noting that the German people seem to be behind Merkel. And that the cash cow countries of Europe seem to be unsympathetic since this situation is the result of decades of fiscal mismanagement by the governments that the Greek people have elected. And you are absolutely right that this isn't about Greece. It's really about the precedent that it would set for other less stable EU economies. in what sense is it "well dialed in"? the IMF already caved in. I must have missed something. How has the IMF caved in? I do see that after his meeting with Merkel, Hollande made a statement supportive of keeping Greece in the EU, but the tone of Merkel's comments wasn't quite as accomodating. I'm wondering what the EU finance ministers will do in their meeting on Tuesday. Frankly, I'd let Greece go it alone. I don't think That Greece leaving the EU will have as much impact on EU stability as some writers claim. While the EU will take a haircut on what it's loaned to Greece, Greece will make a good object lesson for other EU members who might be tempted to pursue a similar approach.
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Jul 6, 2015 16:57:01 GMT -5
Remember: The outcome of the referendum isn't binding. P.M. Tsapiras could (and very well might) sell out tomorrow. What I find fascinating is that the Greeks feel 100% morally justified in defaulting. Their logic: Germany defaulted on huge amounts of foreign-held debt going into WWI and WWII, so what right does Germany have to complain if Greece does it today? So there you go. All perfectly justified. Welcome to the new millennium. The ECB, on the other hand, is already toying with depositor bail-ins for repaying discounted Greek debt (basically like garnishing the Greeks' wages at the point of deposit), which may well have assured that Greece deserts the union. I think that the major difference between Greece today and Germany 70 years ago is that Germany had some natural resources and some manufacturing capacity that it could build a stable economy on. Near as I can tell, Greece has neither.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2015 19:18:38 GMT -5
in what sense is it "well dialed in"? the IMF already caved in. I must have missed something. How has the IMF caved in? Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), made the following statement today: "The IMF has taken note of yesterday’s referendum held in Greece. We are monitoring the situation closely and stand ready to assist Greece if requested to do so." aka "we have no intention of hanging them out to dry".
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2015 19:19:56 GMT -5
i agree with you about the EU, for the record.
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Jul 6, 2015 20:08:37 GMT -5
Greek vote had nothing to do with China's slump.
IMF is not providing more money to Greece as they cannot loan to a debtor nation who defaults (to them?). (Cn link in phone)
Washington Reuters
IMF can lend moral support / guidance / nonfinancial assistance but that's it
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NastyWoman
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Post by NastyWoman on Jul 6, 2015 20:26:54 GMT -5
I have no link for this statement since I read it in a Dutch newspaper, but Greece has already declared itself bankrupt 5 times before, so the Greeks they interviewed were saying "we can do it again. We don't let others tell us what to do" A strange sentiment in my opinion if you want those "others" to give you ever more money
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2015 21:37:45 GMT -5
Greek vote had nothing to do with China's slump. IMF is not providing more money to Greece as they cannot loan to a debtor nation who defaults (to them?). (Cn link in phone) Washington Reuters IMF can lend moral support / guidance / nonfinancial assistance Greece has not defaulted.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2015 21:38:17 GMT -5
I have no link for this statement since I read it in a Dutch newspaper, but Greece has already declared itself bankrupt 5 times before, so the Greeks they interviewed were saying "we can do it again. We don't let others tell us what to do" A strange sentiment in my opinion if you want those "others" to give you ever more money not really. if you don't understand the flippant reply, i suggest you look into Donald Trump.
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Ombud
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Post by Ombud on Jul 6, 2015 22:15:06 GMT -5
Greek vote had nothing to do with China's slump. IMF is not providing more money to Greece as they cannot loan to a debtor nation who defaults (to them?). (Cn link in phone) Washington Reuters IMF can lend moral support / guidance / nonfinancial assistance Greece has not defaulted. Greece did not make the €1.5b payment due to the IMF by 6/30/15. IMF considers them in the arrears in that they aren't paying / is rearranging (ignoring) payment without IMF agreement. Isn't that defaulting on the loan? The next payment (€3.5b) is due to the ECB by 7/20/15. What are they paying that with?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 6, 2015 22:31:21 GMT -5
Greece has not defaulted. Greece did not make the €1.5b payment due to the IMF by 6/30/15. IMF considers them in the arrears in that they aren't paying / is rearranging (ignoring) payment without IMF agreement. Isn't that defaulting on the loan? The next payment (€3.5b) is due to the ECB by 7/20/15. What are they paying that with? then why are they offering to help? you are saying two different things, Ombud. if the IMF won't deal with deadbeats, but is offering to work with Greece....then what?
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