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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 10:37:22 GMT -5
(They also believe the deficit is the lowest it's been in years.)...which doesn't even include the trillions in agency debt, or the asset purchases by the Fed banks. (Let them have their cookie. Smile. Try not to make eye contact.) Deficit does not equal debt, so your chart is meaningless. I am fairly certain the deficit is the lowest it has been since 2008. Actually here is an article on the subject www.forbes.com/sites/stancollender/2014/09/16/the-federal-budget-deficit-has-disappeared-really/Angel: did you see THIS (from the same article, bold is mine)?: Whether you like them and want to take a victory lap for the lowest deficit in six years, or hate them and want to criticize a deficit that still seems high in nominal terms, last Thursday presented the kind of rhetorical opportunity that in the past would have been too good for most people to pass up.
Instead there was nothing. The federal deficit that was such a big issue the past few years that it led to a government shutdown caused no response whatsoever.
On the day the Treasury reported, there was no statement (other than the Monthly Treasury Report that announced the August deficit) from at the two places where it might have been expected — by the White House or Treasury Secretary Jack Lew. The cabinet official who has direct responsibility for the budget – budget director Shaun Donovan – didn’t issue a statement on the OMB website either
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 10:38:41 GMT -5
no wonder people feel so badly about the economy. the good stuff that is happening is getting NO press.
LMMA.
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Post by Angel! on Sept 19, 2014 10:42:41 GMT -5
no wonder people feel so badly about the economy. the good stuff that is happening is getting NO press. LMMA. It is sad we never talk or hear about good news. That is probably why people still believe things are so bad, we haven't really been told otherwise.
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Post by Angel! on Sept 19, 2014 10:44:51 GMT -5
no, it is completely true. we have record employment. it is a fact, Paul. that is based on "full time equivalent jobs". and as far as full time employment, you are WAY OFF. we are only 1M jobs below the peak set in 2007 (and above ALL OTHER YEARS ON RECORD). we will absolutely break it in the next year. maybe even this year. all of this this IN SPITE OF the lowest WFP in a generation makes the fact even more amazing. but i guess anything that even suggests that things are getting better is a losing argument for conservatives. Yes typical Leftyloon position. I am employed therefore everyone else is. Vs the other position. I am struggling & therefore everyone else is. Anyone that says otherwise is just lucky & not the norm. Unemployment is the lowest it has been since 2008. So we are far closer to everyone being employed than the opposite.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 10:46:01 GMT -5
no wonder people feel so badly about the economy. the good stuff that is happening is getting NO press. LMMA. It is sad we never talk or hear about good news. That is probably why people still believe things are so bad, we haven't really been told otherwise. precisely. i am not saying things are great, either. but i am really not getting why and what good this pall of excessive gloom is.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 10:51:03 GMT -5
Yes typical Leftyloon position. I am employed therefore everyone else is. Vs the other position. I am struggling & therefore everyone else is. Anyone that says otherwise is just lucky & not the norm. Unemployment is the lowest it has been since 2008. So we are far closer to everyone being employed than the opposite. this is what i am talking about. the deficit is down by 2/3. unemployment is about 3/4 of the way to full. the stock market is booming. interest rates are at record lows. we have record employment. but all we seem to be able to focus on is stuff that, in NORMAL TIMES would be wallpaper for statisticians and economics wonks. stuff like WFP (which never got ANY attention when it PLUMMETED under Bush), and LTUE, which i don't even remember reading about in my lifetime. we have gone from a nation that always looks for the silver lining to one that always looks for the dark cloud. what the hell happened?
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Post by Angel! on Sept 19, 2014 11:02:37 GMT -5
Vs the other position. I am struggling & therefore everyone else is. Anyone that says otherwise is just lucky & not the norm. Unemployment is the lowest it has been since 2008. So we are far closer to everyone being employed than the opposite. this is what i am talking about. the deficit is down by 2/3. unemployment is about 3/4 of the way to full. the stock market is booming. interest rates are at record lows. we have record employment. but all we seem to be able to focus on is stuff that, in NORMAL TIMES would be wallpaper for statisticians and economics wonks. stuff like WFP (which never got ANY attention when it PLUMMETED under Bush), and LTUE, which i don't even remember reading about in my lifetime. we have gone from a nation that always looks for the silver lining to one that always looks for the dark cloud. what the hell happened? People want things to be bad. They want to be able to blame Obama for something.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 19, 2014 11:12:47 GMT -5
Vs the other position. I am struggling & therefore everyone else is. Anyone that says otherwise is just lucky & not the norm. Unemployment is the lowest it has been since 2008. So we are far closer to everyone being employed than the opposite. this is what i am talking about. the deficit is down by 2/3. unemployment is about 3/4 of the way to full. the stock market is booming. interest rates are at record lows. we have record employment. but all we seem to be able to focus on is stuff that, in NORMAL TIMES would be wallpaper for statisticians and economics wonks. stuff like WFP (which never got ANY attention when it PLUMMETED under Bush), and LTUE, which i don't even remember reading about in my lifetime. we have gone from a nation that always looks for the silver lining to one that always looks for the dark cloud. what the hell happened? If all these citizens are working, where is the Federal with holding tax dollars hiding? The Treasury should be awash in money. The deficit should be gone!
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 11:42:31 GMT -5
this is what i am talking about. the deficit is down by 2/3. unemployment is about 3/4 of the way to full. the stock market is booming. interest rates are at record lows. we have record employment. but all we seem to be able to focus on is stuff that, in NORMAL TIMES would be wallpaper for statisticians and economics wonks. stuff like WFP (which never got ANY attention when it PLUMMETED under Bush), and LTUE, which i don't even remember reading about in my lifetime. we have gone from a nation that always looks for the silver lining to one that always looks for the dark cloud. what the hell happened? If all these citizens are working, where is the Federal with holding tax dollars hiding? The Treasury should be awash in money. The deficit should be gone!
two reasons: 1) Bush Tax Cuts = about 2% GDP in revenue loss 2) Excessive Spending = about 2% GDP in deficit combine the two, and we have a surplus.
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 19, 2014 12:08:33 GMT -5
DJ, UNFORTUNATELY IF WE HAVE ALL THESE OTHER PEOPLE NOW ON THE TAX ROLLS, WE SHOULD HAVE ALL THIS EXTRA INCREASE IN MONEY, IN THE TREASURY REGARDLESS OF THE 2% CUT. AND LET'S STOP USING THE "BUT BUSH" EXCUSE OBAMA HAS BEEN IN OFFICE FIVE YEARS NOW.
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Post by Angel! on Sept 19, 2014 12:20:50 GMT -5
DJ, UNFORTUNATELY IF WE HAVE ALL THESE OTHER PEOPLE NOW ON THE TAX ROLLS, WE SHOULD HAVE ALL THIS EXTRA INCREASE IN MONEY, IN THE TREASURY REGARDLESS OF THE 2% CUT. AND LET'S STOP USING THE "BUT BUSH" EXCUSE OBAMA HAS BEEN IN OFFICE FIVE YEARS NOW. We have seen an increase. That is part of the reason the deficit has dropped so significantly.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 12:36:43 GMT -5
DJ, UNFORTUNATELY IF WE HAVE ALL THESE OTHER PEOPLE NOW ON THE TAX ROLLS,
we don't have any "extra". we have the same number we had in 2009. and Angel is right, revenues are up about 30% from the low, which is WHY the deficit is 2/3 lower. look, bro. you asked me why, i told you why. if you don't like the answer, that's cool, but that is actually the answer.
WE SHOULD HAVE ALL THIS EXTRA INCREASE IN MONEY, IN THE TREASURY REGARDLESS OF THE 2% CUT.
it is not a 2% cut, it is a 2% GDP cut = 10% revenue cut. so, no, we would need to grow revenue 10% IN REAL TERMS over 2008 to cover that difference. we can't do that with the tax cuts in place, imo.
AND LET'S STOP USING THE "BUT BUSH" EXCUSE OBAMA HAS BEEN IN OFFICE FIVE YEARS NOW. sorry, i can't oblige you. there are no Obama Tax Cuts.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 12:39:26 GMT -5
by the way- Bush is in no way ashamed of his tax cuts. why should you be?
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Post by Opti on Sept 19, 2014 12:48:45 GMT -5
this is what i am talking about. the deficit is down by 2/3. unemployment is about 3/4 of the way to full. the stock market is booming. interest rates are at record lows. we have record employment. but all we seem to be able to focus on is stuff that, in NORMAL TIMES would be wallpaper for statisticians and economics wonks. stuff like WFP (which never got ANY attention when it PLUMMETED under Bush), and LTUE, which i don't even remember reading about in my lifetime. we have gone from a nation that always looks for the silver lining to one that always looks for the dark cloud. what the hell happened? If all these citizens are working, where is the Federal with holding tax dollars hiding? The Treasury should be awash in money. The deficit should be gone!
Also some of it was fun with taxes to stimulate the economy. Wasn't there a reduction in FICA for awhile? A credit for people who work, but not enough? Tax credits for employers who hired certain types of unemployed folk.
But TG that the Repubs shut down the government last year, thus supplying tax-payers with fewer services for the same cost. <---- Major sarcasm FWIW.
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Post by Opti on Sept 19, 2014 12:50:03 GMT -5
by the way- Bush is in no way ashamed of his tax cuts. why should you be? Losing points in an internet argument?
Going to log off. Have two jobs I need to apply to today if I want a shot at them. Both temp & contract.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Sept 19, 2014 13:36:15 GMT -5
no wonder people feel so badly about the economy. the good stuff that is happening is getting NO press. LMMA. Because they are cooked numbers. "Good stuff" pertains to real improvements. What part of this do you not understand!? If "the deficit" is zero dollars, but the total public debt is still shooting into the stratosphere, who the fast flying frogs cares about "the deficit"? It's been entirely disconnected from reality. It's become a meaningless nominal value. If job gains aren't halfway enough to compensate for the continuous, sustained population growth of the US, if the LFPR continues to tank, if the median wage continues to decline and the economy continues to slide from middle-class living wage jobs to multiple part-time jobs, then who the friendly fishy fondue cares if the number of jobs is at a nominal all-time high? You are not a stupid man, but trumpeting a number without any appreciation for or acknowledgement of its meaninglessness is a stupid thing to do. It makes you no better than a propagandist. You're like the guy who runs out in the street to celebrate when he hears that his business brought in 2% more revenue than the previous year, even though inflation is at 5%.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 14:09:57 GMT -5
no wonder people feel so badly about the economy. the good stuff that is happening is getting NO press. LMMA. Because they are cooked numbers. "Good stuff" pertains to real improvements. What part of this do you not understand!? If "the deficit" is zero dollars, but the total public debt is still shooting into the stratosphere, who the fast flying frogs cares about "the deficit"? It's been entirely disconnected from reality. It's become a meaningless nominal value. If job gains aren't halfway enough to compensate for the continuous, sustained population growth of the US, if the LFPR continues to tank, if the median wage continues to decline and the economy continues to slide from middle-class living wage jobs to multiple part-time jobs, then who the friendly fishy fondue cares if the number of jobs is at a nominal all-time high? You are not a stupid man, but trumpeting a number without any appreciation for or acknowledgement of its meaninglessness is a stupid thing to do. It makes you no better than a propagandist. You're like the guy who runs out in the street to celebrate when he hears that his business brought in 2% more revenue than the previous year, even though inflation is at 5%. do you have a background in accounting, Virgil?
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 14:17:35 GMT -5
Three decades of watching healthcare and college costs shoot through the roof, which is extra painful since the value of the degree has gone down the whole time. Three decades of stagnant or declining wages, and certain industries contracting year after year after year. The death of pensions. The decline of unions. Soaring government debt. A decade long war. We have the first generation in American history expected to live shorter lives than their parents. Along with that, most of us expect to make less, on an inflation adjusted basis, than our parents, while having to shoulder far more debt, even on an inflation adjusted basis. Employer loyalty is a quaint antiquated notion. We're all cogs in the machine that they'd love to replace with robots, foreign labor, or foreign robot labor if they could. SS is going broke, and for people my age the trust is expected to be completely depleted a decade or two before we're even eligible to collect. Our politicians are spineless dumbasses that could honestly give a shit. They're in office to pander to their corporate masters, and don't have the brains or the will to do a damn thing about any of the very real systemic problems developing in our economy. Whatever though, break out the pom poms and cheer because we have a bunch of new minimum wage McJobs to replace the jobs lost during the recession. comment: i don't think that last sentence is any more a fair assessment of what i am asking than your appraisal of jobs added during the recession is.I've talked to more than one person my age that's honestly considered building a tiny house out in the middle of nowhere and basically dropping out of the economy all together. I'm glad upper class white business owners are doing pretty well. Seriously, I am. Make that money brother, and fuck anyone who has a problem with it. ok, you went too far, there. i am not UNSYMPATHETIC to those that are suffering, shaun. NOT AT ALL. i am ONLY trying to assess why the mood of the country is so crappy. no need to beat up on me for TRYING TO UNDERSTAND. mmkay?Talk to some 25-35 year olds though. The last decade hasn't been especially great for them. The two decades before that weren't especially great to their parents, who they got to see struggle for their entire childhood. i know two different groups of 18-30 year olds. one, is my employees, that make an average of $5,000/month. they are doing fine. the others are musicians, and they are struggling worse than anything anyone has described on this board.ETA - Or, I'm just a wee bit pessimistic due to my own personal choices over the last couple years. Maybe a bit of both. i think you are really angry and lashing out. you have my sympathies. i mean that. to be clear: i never meant to belittle anyone's misfortunes here, or anywhere. if it SEEMED that way to anyone, then i humbly apologize for that.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 14:23:38 GMT -5
by the way, Shaun, i was with you until the last sentence of the first paragraph, and in general agreement. but even though i agree, and see stuff mostly the same way, it doesn't make it impossible for me to breathe a sigh of relief when the hole that Bush dug finally got filled. i dunno. maybe i am the weirdo, here. maybe everything is dark and gloomy, and I am the one who is missing that fact. i am almost not caring all that much at this point. i get it. the mood is bad, and it is hard to shift a bad mood.
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Post by The Captain on Sept 19, 2014 14:49:53 GMT -5
by the way- Bush is in no way ashamed of his tax cuts. why should you be? DJ - I know you weren't responding to me, but I'm sure you remember those same tax cuts were extended by a democratic president in a democratically controlled congress... . FWIW - I was against them then, and am still against them now.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 15:51:55 GMT -5
The majority of jobs added since the end of the Great Recession have been in low-wage occupations, according to a study from the National Employment Law Project. Those jobs have largely replaced middle-wage jobs, which made up a majority of those lost during and immediately after the recession. Nearly three in five jobs added since the end of the recession pay less than $13.83 an hour, the report found: Lower-wage occupations were 21 percent of recession losses, but 58 percent of recovery growth. Mid-wage occupations were 60 percent of recession losses, but only 22 percent of recovery growth. fine. but you didn't say some. you just said McJobs. i figured you meant all. i had a problem with that.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 15:53:00 GMT -5
by the way- Bush is in no way ashamed of his tax cuts. why should you be? DJ - I know you weren't responding to me, but I'm sure you remember those same tax cuts were extended by a democratic president in a democratically controlled congress... . FWIW - I was against them then, and am still against them now. "extended" is not the same thing as MADE, Cap. let me put it to you this way: if the Cuts had not already existed, do YOU BELIEVE that Obama would have signed on for them? i don't.
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Post by The Captain on Sept 19, 2014 15:59:59 GMT -5
djAdvocate - I agree. But I also believe that going along with something that you believe is wrong is just as bad as actually starting it... Kinda like a sin of commission vs a sin of ommission. If he thought they were wrong, he could have vetoed them.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 16:05:24 GMT -5
Workers are putting in more hours, working harder, have more responsibility, tighter deadlines, less coworkers to help share the load, and haven't really gotten rewarded for it at all. Those are the lucky ones that still have jobs. The unlucky ones are going back to school during the middle of their prime working years, taking on more debt in the process in some cases before they finished paying off the debt they got the first time, because their job is now done by "Bob" in Bangladesh. no, i see this. that is what happens in a recession, right? businesses go into a survival mode, and those employees that are lucky enough to be retained have to do more work. we were fortunate, in that when things got rough for us for about 18 months, nobody got laid off, and nobody got a pay cut. one guy quit. but toward the end, everyone was working a lot harder. a LOT.Maybe. Hell, I'll go probably. Friday's suck. It's not all personal though. I'm not even talking about me specifically. I was one of the lucky ones. I'm talking about my friends, my siblings, my neighbors. It's not that any one thing is horrible right now. Far from it actually, compared to 2008/9 things are friggin great. There are lots of little things that all taken together are scaring the shit out of what used to be the middle class in this country though. Take the banking fiasco from 2008/9. We didn't actually fix it. All those banks are still there, still too big to fail, and still run like casinos. The next time they bet wrong it really might crash the global economy. But whatever, pay no attention to the men behind the curtain. Keep on keeping on, buy a new Weber grill, a bigger big screen TV, and everything will be fine. that underlined bit must be it. because i am looking at a whole list of things that are going well. i am figuring that most people don't have a list of things that are going poorly, because i don't. so it is a combination of my own personal situation and what i really can't see when i look out there. it is stuff that got swept under the rug, where it festers and grows into something troublesome. and i guess, if i was working 60 hours a week with no job security, i would not be in much of a mood for celebrating, either.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 16:08:15 GMT -5
djAdvocate - I agree. But I also believe that going along with something that you believe is wrong is just as bad as actually starting it... Kinda like a sin of commission vs a sin of ommission. If he thought they were wrong, he could have vetoed them. sure. bur that is not really my point. we call our library in town the Carnagie Library. it has been almost 100 years since that thing was built. it has been maintained by successive generations of people that like libraries and want to have them. but we don't name it after our mayor, or whatever. it is still called the Carnagie Library- because HE BUILT IT. i call it the Bush Tax Cuts for the same reason: he built it. Obama promised to axe it. he was not able to do that. do i blame him for that? sure. but he didn't build it. edit: if you want to call them the Bush Tax Cuts that Obama Extended, be my guest. it is more accurate, but too much typing for me.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 16:14:20 GMT -5
My apologies. Please accept this edited version of the sentence you had a problem with, "Whatever though, break out the pom poms and cheer because we predominately have a bunch of new LOW wage McJobs to replace the jobs lost during the recession. that's not accurate either. forgive me for my edit, but i think that is accurate. if you go HERE: www.nytimes.com/2014/04/28/business/economy/recovery-has-created-far-more-low-wage-jobs-than-better-paid-ones.htmlthey show the wages as being greater than $9.48/hr. so, i would say that very few jobs added were MW jobs. or, more accurately, they were low enough in number that the NYT didn't bother to categorize them. if you find differently let me know.
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Post by The Captain on Sept 19, 2014 16:16:54 GMT -5
djAdvocate - I agree. But I also believe that going along with something that you believe is wrong is just as bad as actually starting it... Kinda like a sin of commission vs a sin of ommission. If he thought they were wrong, he could have vetoed them. sure. bur that is not really my point. we call our library in town the Carnagie Library. it has been almost 100 years since that thing was built. it has been maintained by successive generations of people that like libraries and want to have them. but we don't name it after our mayor, or whatever. it is still called the Carnagie Library- because HE BUILT IT. i call it the Bush Tax Cuts for the same reason: he built it. Obama promised to axe it. he was not able to do that. do i blame him for that? sure. but he didn't build it. edit: if you want to call them the Bush Tax Cuts that Obama Extended, be my guest. it is more accurate, but too much typing for me. DJ - I must've missed the point you were trying to make. But (based on my bolded) you do remember Pres. Obama's promised to axe the cuts (among many others). That was the point I was attempting to call out. I understand you point about the nomenclature. But as some point when something gets extended...again and again, it ceases (at least IMHO) to belong to the originator. Just like ACA will not be know as Obamacare forever.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 16:21:41 GMT -5
sure. bur that is not really my point. we call our library in town the Carnagie Library. it has been almost 100 years since that thing was built. it has been maintained by successive generations of people that like libraries and want to have them. but we don't name it after our mayor, or whatever. it is still called the Carnagie Library- because HE BUILT IT. i call it the Bush Tax Cuts for the same reason: he built it. Obama promised to axe it. he was not able to do that. do i blame him for that? sure. but he didn't build it. edit: if you want to call them the Bush Tax Cuts that Obama Extended, be my guest. it is more accurate, but too much typing for me. DJ - I must've missed the point you were trying to make. But (based on my bolded) you do remember Pres. Obama's promised to axe the cuts (among many others). That was the point I was attempting to call out. yeah, he failed to do that. and let's add something else to this: the fact that the Bush Tax Cuts ARE STILL THERE, being a lasting tribute to that walking piece of gopher meat gives me NO PLEASURE WHATSOEVER. i would rather not even MENTION it. but, unfortunately, it is still there.I understand you point about the nomenclature. But as some point when something gets extended...again and again, it ceases (at least IMHO) to belong to the originator. Just like ACA will not be know as Obamacare forever. i think it will get repealed eventually (the Bush Tax Cuts). but you know what i am going to do until then? i am going to look up the names of the bills, form acronyms out of all of them, and start using that instead. when people ask me what i mean, i will tell them that they are what i used to call the Bush Tax Cuts until Captain and VB took me to task for it, and that you should complain to them if you don't like it, and we will see how that goes.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 16:25:38 GMT -5
getting back to the point, tho- if the Bush Tax Cuts had been fully repealed under Obama, most of the deficit we have today would not exist. edit: i just thought of something i like even better: The Bush Tax Cuts that Obama Failed To Axe.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Sept 20, 2014 1:12:49 GMT -5
All I know is, if the Fed says the economy is struggling, people still unemployed, under employed. I think I will go with their description rather than DJ'S
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