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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 0:02:10 GMT -5
Don't worry dj The GOP is primed to disappoint on election day
If only we could get 53 and really have a strong majority. Gives us 2 years to show the nation the way to sanity
Not that we would be able to do it........
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 19, 2014 0:13:19 GMT -5
VB- the GOP is doing way better in some of the tossups than i expected. they might sweep everything i have shown, there- but i would guess that they will lose at least two of them. it is still very very close. i am far from certain how it will come out. i doubt i can make a call in the next month.
edit: if we assume that NC and MI will go Democrat, KS goes Independent, and that LA goes Republican, that leaves these four:
CO AK IA AR
the GOP needs to win two of these. i think that CO is as likely to go Dem as AR is to go Republican (about 4%). that would mean the GOP needs to win EITHER IA or AK. i think the demographics in IA favor Dems.
there is a very good chance this race will hinge on AK.
NOTE: 1-2 of these races might have a runoff, and both of them are GOP states. so, this might be one of those situations that doesn't get resolved until January. if that happens, count on the GOP to pour every nickle they have to thump Democrats in those states.
because of how well the GOP is polling in LA and GA, i am now giving the GOP a small advantage.
edit#2: this is why experienced politicians are better at this stage than TP candidates. TP candidates take a lot more political risks and make a lot more exploitable mistakes at this stage. because there are NO competitive races involving TP candidates, the GOP has a better than average chance of taking the Senate, even LOSING KS right now......
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Post by dondub on Sept 19, 2014 0:24:52 GMT -5
If only we could get 53 and really have a strong majority.
Gives us 2 years to show the nation the way to sanity
Not that we would be able to do it........ Just remember that fine job they did under BushCo. Some sanity that was with a doubled deficit, flucked up wars, deregulated fiscal crashing. Yeah, bring it on.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 20, 2014 14:06:28 GMT -5
on the basis of 538's forecast, i am calling GA for the GOP and NC for Democrats today:
Republican solid : 47 Democrat solid: 47
Leaning Republican: AR, LA Leaning Independent: KS
Tossup: CO, AK, IA
GOP needs to win 4/6 and is leading in 3.
CO and AK are very close to moving to "leans democrat" from "tossup". IA has been trending toward the GOP for a couple of weeks. LA is very close to going to the GOP.
edit: i mentioned earlier that i am watching four poll aggregators. they are now evenly split. Huffington and Princeton are saying the Dems will win, and UPSHOT and 538 are saying the GOP will win. what is interesting is that Princeton is now rating the Democrats chances at 93%. personally, i think that is absurd. 538 seems about right to me. they are rating the probability of the GOP winning it at 54%. in other words, this is too close to call. i certainly feel that way, as well. if the elections were held today, it would be a tossup, slightly favoring the GOP, and i don't think that the demographics favor predicting odds above 60% for either party to hold out. a key race is still KS, but IA is also starting to shape up as important.
538 is saying that about a dozen races will be decided by less than 4%, which is polling error. i think that is about right. which means that even a small gaffe could cost either party this election.
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Post by marvholly on Sept 21, 2014 5:38:18 GMT -5
I have been thinking about these races for the past few weeks. Here, 6 weeks +2 days out fro the election I predict:
Any, most probably all, the questionable states WILL vote as they historically have voted. This is based on the fact that most voters hate the powers that be but LOVE their current elected official. IL will go for Durbin vs. run for any/all possible office Oberweiss. We have WAAAY too much to lose NOT returning Durbin what w/his seniority & such.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 21, 2014 10:43:02 GMT -5
I have been thinking about these races for the past few weeks. Here, 6 weeks +2 days out fro the election I predict: Any, most probably all, the questionable states WILL vote as they historically have voted. This is based on the fact that most voters hate the powers that be but LOVE their current elected official. IL will go for Durbin vs. run for any/all possible office Oberweiss. We have WAAAY too much to lose NOT returning Durbin what w/his seniority & such. i would agree with that, as it sounds rational, except for one thing: that has not turned out to be how it has worked in the last several election cycles. incumbency is still helpful, but let's just consider and reflect on what happened to Eric Cantor for a moment.
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Post by marvholly on Sept 22, 2014 4:17:26 GMT -5
I have been thinking about these races for the past few weeks. Here, 6 weeks +2 days out fro the election I predict: Any, most probably all, the questionable states WILL vote as they historically have voted. This is based on the fact that most voters hate the powers that be but LOVE their current elected official. IL will go for Durbin vs. run for any/all possible office Oberweiss. We have WAAAY too much to lose NOT returning Durbin what w/his seniority & such. i would agree with that, as it sounds rational, except for one thing: that has not turned out to be how it has worked in the last several election cycles. incumbency is still helpful, but let's just consider and reflect on what happened to Eric Cantor for a moment. Cantor was an in everyone's face obstructionist. I suspect even his most partisan supporters had enough.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2014 13:04:14 GMT -5
on the basis of 538's forecast, i am calling GA for the GOP and NC for Democrats today: Republican solid : 47 Democrat solid: 47 Leaning Republican: AR, LA Leaning Independent: KS
Tossup: CO, AK, IAGOP needs to win 4/6 and is leading in 3. CO and AK are very close to moving to "leans democrat" from "tossup". IA has been trending toward the GOP for a couple of weeks. LA is very close to going to the GOP. edit: i mentioned earlier that i am watching four poll aggregators. they are now evenly split. Huffington and Princeton are saying the Dems will win, and UPSHOT and 538 are saying the GOP will win. what is interesting is that Princeton is now rating the Democrats chances at 93%. personally, i think that is absurd. 538 seems about right to me. they are rating the probability of the GOP winning it at 54%. in other words, this is too close to call. i certainly feel that way, as well. if the elections were held today, it would be a tossup, slightly favoring the GOP, and i don't think that the demographics favor predicting odds above 60% for either party to hold out. a key race is still KS, but IA is also starting to shape up as important. 538 is saying that about a dozen races will be decided by less than 4%, which is polling error. i think that is about right. which means that even a small gaffe could cost either party this election. just when i was getting ready to cal Colorado for Dems, they got THREE surveys in a row that show Gardner up by 5-6%. so, that one stays "tossup" for the forseeable future.....in general, i think things have been heading the GOP's way for the last couple of weeks.....
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2014 13:11:32 GMT -5
i would agree with that, as it sounds rational, except for one thing: that has not turned out to be how it has worked in the last several election cycles. incumbency is still helpful, but let's just consider and reflect on what happened to Eric Cantor for a moment. Cantor was an in everyone's face obstructionist. I suspect even his most partisan supporters had enough. whatever. it was called the most significant upset in half a century, but you can call it "predictable" if you like.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 22, 2014 16:35:53 GMT -5
Don't worry dj The GOP is primed to disappoint on election day
If only we could get 53 and really have a strong majority. Gives us 2 years to show the nation the way to sanity
Not that we would be able to do it........ Even if we did that, what the hell difference would it make with Mitch McConnell as majority leader? Beer and chili. That's what I'll be doing election day. Screw the GOP.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2014 16:37:33 GMT -5
Don't worry dj The GOP is primed to disappoint on election day
If only we could get 53 and really have a strong majority. Gives us 2 years to show the nation the way to sanity
Not that we would be able to do it........ Even if we did that, what the hell difference would it make with Mitch McConnell as majority leader? Beer and chili. That's what I'll be doing election day. Screw the GOP. unfortunately, it doesn't look like Grimes is going to beat him, otherwise he could join you.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 22, 2014 16:38:09 GMT -5
on the basis of 538's forecast, i am calling GA for the GOP and NC for Democrats today: Republican solid : 47 Democrat solid: 47 Leaning Republican: AR, LA Leaning Independent: KS
Tossup: CO, AK, IAGOP needs to win 4/6 and is leading in 3. CO and AK are very close to moving to "leans democrat" from "tossup". IA has been trending toward the GOP for a couple of weeks. LA is very close to going to the GOP. edit: i mentioned earlier that i am watching four poll aggregators. they are now evenly split. Huffington and Princeton are saying the Dems will win, and UPSHOT and 538 are saying the GOP will win. what is interesting is that Princeton is now rating the Democrats chances at 93%. personally, i think that is absurd. 538 seems about right to me. they are rating the probability of the GOP winning it at 54%. in other words, this is too close to call. i certainly feel that way, as well. if the elections were held today, it would be a tossup, slightly favoring the GOP, and i don't think that the demographics favor predicting odds above 60% for either party to hold out. a key race is still KS, but IA is also starting to shape up as important. 538 is saying that about a dozen races will be decided by less than 4%, which is polling error. i think that is about right. which means that even a small gaffe could cost either party this election. just when i was getting ready to cal Colorado for Dems, they got THREE surveys in a row that show Gardner up by 5-6%. so, that one stays "tossup" for the forseeable future.....in general, i think things have been heading the GOP's way for the last couple of weeks..... I have no faith in surveys anymore. Who the hell sits home to answer a phone anymore, or answers an unknown or restricted number on their cell phone? Could be colorado Dems are too stoned anyway- maybe they'll be too stoned to go to the polls?
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 22, 2014 16:40:45 GMT -5
As far as LA goes- I doubt they'll flip it. Landrieu is a household name, and if the idiots would elect their Katrina Governor to the Senate once, is there strong evidence they've gotten smarter?
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2014 17:56:23 GMT -5
just when i was getting ready to cal Colorado for Dems, they got THREE surveys in a row that show Gardner up by 5-6%. so, that one stays "tossup" for the forseeable future.....in general, i think things have been heading the GOP's way for the last couple of weeks..... I have no faith in surveys anymore. why not? i used surveys in the last election, and the only race i missed was the Florida presidential (electoral) race.Who the hell sits home to answer a phone anymore, or answers an unknown or restricted number on their cell phone? Could be colorado Dems are too stoned anyway- maybe they'll be too stoned to go to the polls? could be. but all of that stuff can be calculated. a good pollster knows how to compare what he got to what it will be. a bad one doesn't.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2014 18:06:05 GMT -5
As far as LA goes- I doubt they'll flip it. Landrieu is a household name, and if the idiots would elect their Katrina Governor to the Senate once, is there strong evidence they've gotten smarter? i think she is going down. i give her a 20% chance right now.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2014 18:18:41 GMT -5
the straw poll numbers for the GOP are WAY up. we are +4% right now, which is "landslide" territory. if this keeps up, we will likely win the Senate.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 22, 2014 19:16:20 GMT -5
the straw poll numbers for the GOP are WAY up. we are +4% right now, which is "landslide" territory. if this keeps up, we will likely win the Senate. Don't underestimate fraud. Obama got more votes than voters in many precincts, and support for Obama was 8n Saddam Hussein territory in some places, including one precinct where Romney didn't get a single vote. Googl5 it. And keep in mind the border is wide open.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2014 19:25:38 GMT -5
the straw poll numbers for the GOP are WAY up. we are +4% right now, which is "landslide" territory. if this keeps up, we will likely win the Senate. Don't underestimate fraud. Obama got more votes than voters in many precincts, and support for Obama was 8n Saddam Hussein territory in some places, including one precinct where Romney didn't get a single vote. Googl5 it. And keep in mind the border is wide open. getting no votes is not an indication of fraud, Paul. that makes me think you don't understand the term. edit: PS: www.factcheck.org/2013/01/voting-conspiracies/by the way, Obama got zero votes in the last election in at least 30 precincts that i saw. a couple of dozen in Louisiana, and about half that many in Utah.
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Post by mmhmm on Sept 22, 2014 20:13:09 GMT -5
just when i was getting ready to cal Colorado for Dems, they got THREE surveys in a row that show Gardner up by 5-6%. so, that one stays "tossup" for the forseeable future.....in general, i think things have been heading the GOP's way for the last couple of weeks..... I have no faith in surveys anymore. Who the hell sits home to answer a phone anymore, or answers an unknown or restricted number on their cell phone? Could be colorado Dems are too stoned anyway- maybe they'll be too stoned to go to the polls? We have one stoner on our cul-de-sac. Guess what political party he belongs to ...
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Post by EVT1 on Sept 22, 2014 20:19:01 GMT -5
Even if we did that, what the hell difference would it make with Mitch McConnell as majority leader? Beer and chili. That's what I'll be doing election day. Screw the GOP. unfortunately, it doesn't look like Grimes is going to beat him, otherwise he could join you. According to Trump he is set to be Speaker of the House
www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Buzz/2014/0922/Donald-Trump-doesn-t-know-who-runs-Senate.-Do-voters
Specifically, he tweeted this: “Why would the people of Kentucky want a rookie Senator – they have Sen. Mitch [McConnell] who may be next Speaker & bring $’s to KY?”
Thought it was a joke- but this is Trump we are talking about so I can see it.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 22, 2014 21:33:28 GMT -5
I have no faith in surveys anymore. Who the hell sits home to answer a phone anymore, or answers an unknown or restricted number on their cell phone? Could be colorado Dems are too stoned anyway- maybe they'll be too stoned to go to the polls? We have one stoner on our cul-de-sac. Guess what political party he belongs to ... You know a stoner that actually votes? I know several, and only one votes. He's a self described TEA Party libertarian.
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Post by mmhmm on Sept 22, 2014 21:46:10 GMT -5
We have one stoner on our cul-de-sac. Guess what political party he belongs to ... You know a stoner that actually votes? I know several, and only one votes. He's a self described TEA Party libertarian. Yep. I know several stoners who vote. This one just happens to live two doors down from me.
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Post by Angel! on Sept 22, 2014 21:50:42 GMT -5
on the basis of 538's forecast, i am calling GA for the GOP and NC for Democrats today: Republican solid : 47 Democrat solid: 47 Leaning Republican: AR, LA Leaning Independent: KS
Tossup: CO, AK, IAGOP needs to win 4/6 and is leading in 3. CO and AK are very close to moving to "leans democrat" from "tossup". IA has been trending toward the GOP for a couple of weeks. LA is very close to going to the GOP. edit: i mentioned earlier that i am watching four poll aggregators. they are now evenly split. Huffington and Princeton are saying the Dems will win, and UPSHOT and 538 are saying the GOP will win. what is interesting is that Princeton is now rating the Democrats chances at 93%. personally, i think that is absurd. 538 seems about right to me. they are rating the probability of the GOP winning it at 54%. in other words, this is too close to call. i certainly feel that way, as well. if the elections were held today, it would be a tossup, slightly favoring the GOP, and i don't think that the demographics favor predicting odds above 60% for either party to hold out. a key race is still KS, but IA is also starting to shape up as important. 538 is saying that about a dozen races will be decided by less than 4%, which is polling error. i think that is about right. which means that even a small gaffe could cost either party this election. just when i was getting ready to cal Colorado for Dems, they got THREE surveys in a row that show Gardner up by 5-6%. so, that one stays "tossup" for the forseeable future.....in general, i think things have been heading the GOP's way for the last couple of weeks..... Just in the last few days he has started showing some very effective ads. Talks about how he supports OTC birth control and wind energy. Going to get a lot of moderates to shift his way with those ads. I have read he is upsetting the base by this move. And some don't buy it because he is on a personhood bill. But it still is an interesting tactic and could totally pay off.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2014 21:52:02 GMT -5
it will be weird if there are two Cory's in the senate.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 23, 2014 12:49:52 GMT -5
new polls out show the GOP leading in 4/6 tossup states.
i am making them the favourite again: 60:40
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Post by marvholly on Sept 24, 2014 6:21:10 GMT -5
I WILL vote & I have already hung up on several pollisters over the last few days. I expect it (polling) to get worse here in IL as the govenor race is VERY tight.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2014 11:26:59 GMT -5
yw. they don't call me polldancer for nothing.
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 3, 2014 15:24:47 GMT -5
Georgia Dems are mounting a big 'get out the vote' drive and republicans are calling voter fraud. Since the demise of the Voting Rights Act, now that Georgia can change their voting laws without federal approval, the republicans have been implimenting changes to suppress the minority vote - changing the election date from the traditional NOvember date in Augusta, which has a large black population, and closing half the polling facilities in a rural county, which would impact the poor voters the most. Figuring that two can play that game, the dems impliment their own change - Sunday voting in mostly black Dekalb county. And of course now the republicans are screaming it was a 'blatantly partisian' move. Unlike what they did. Georgia has 700,000 unregistered black voters - just a third of those voting in the next election may make this red state purple. www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/09/stacey_abrams_new_georgia_project_shocks_georgia_s_gop_republicans_fighting.html?wpisrc=obnetwork
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 3, 2014 17:35:52 GMT -5
Georgia Dems are mounting a big 'get out the vote' drive and republicans are calling voter fraud. Since the demise of the Voting Rights Act, now that Georgia can change their voting laws without federal approval, the republicans have been implimenting changes to suppress the minority vote - changing the election date from the traditional NOvember date in Augusta, which has a large black population, and closing half the polling facilities in a rural county, which would impact the poor voters the most. Figuring that two can play that game, the dems impliment their own change - Sunday voting in mostly black Dekalb county. And of course now the republicans are screaming it was a 'blatantly partisian' move. Unlike what they did. Georgia has 700,000 unregistered black voters - just a third of those voting in the next election may make this red state purple. www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/09/stacey_abrams_new_georgia_project_shocks_georgia_s_gop_republicans_fighting.html?wpisrc=obnetworki have been following this race for a while, and i think that Democrats are a long shot here. really, it is not a matter of registering, but getting people to show up to the polls. what the polling numbers indicate is likely voters in some cases, and although Nunn is close, she is not within polling error. so, UNLESS THE POLLSTERS HAVE NOT BEEN COMPENSATING FOR THE HIGHER DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT, i don't think that Nunn has a shot, as of today. but as i say, i have been watching this closely. i mentioned it earlier in the thread.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 7, 2014 7:14:15 GMT -5
dj, where have you been? MSNBC is crowing this morning the Dems are virtually sweeping the Senate races. Louisiana Iowa Kentucky North Carolina And one or two others Joe was virtually creaming his jeans this morning over this, as well as Clinton politicking for races in Arkansas. You just know he wishes ol Bill could run again.
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