zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Sept 1, 2014 17:42:22 GMT -5
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 2, 2014 10:11:25 GMT -5
I don't see the GOP taking the Senate now. I think they're going to be in trouble in places they don't think they've got to worry about like MS and KY.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 2, 2014 10:42:30 GMT -5
alright, who are you, and what happened to WCPS?
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Sept 2, 2014 10:47:45 GMT -5
No kidding.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 2, 2014 11:48:27 GMT -5
In Georgia, Nunn has made some effective TV ads attacking Perdue for his business practises - Perdue has been campaigning as a business expert who knows how to create jobs, but Nunn is capitalizing on how Perdue took over as CEO as Pillowtex, a NC textile company. Eight months after he took over he shut down the company, walking away with 1.7 million while the company workers were laid off. Nunns using the same strategy Obama used with Romney and Bain capital.
Polls are close right now, and there is also a potential monkey wrench in the works, Amanda Swafford, the libertarian candidate, who is polling at about 8 percent right now. If none of the candidates get 50%, in Georgia, that forces a run off.
Georgia is becoming an interesting state. Rural areas are red as red can be, full of TEA partiers, but the urban areas keep expanding with non-Georgians, who are not such dedicated TEA party folks, and the younger generations of Georgians are increasingly blue.
Savannah, Athens and Atlanta are pushing the State blue, it's just a question of whether it will turn this next election cycle or the one after.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 2, 2014 12:23:37 GMT -5
In Georgia, Nunn has made some effective TV ads attacking Perdue for his business practises - Perdue has been campaigning as a business expert who knows how to create jobs, but Nunn is capitalizing on how Perdue took over as CEO as Pillowtex, a NC textile company. Eight months after he took over he shut down the company, walking away with 1.7 million while the company workers were laid off. Nunns using the same strategy Obama used with Romney and Bain capital. to be fair, Obama got the idea from Gingrich. and it was quite effective.Polls are close right now, and there is also a potential monkey wrench in the works, Amanda Swafford, the libertarian candidate, who is polling at about 8 percent right now. If none of the candidates get 50%, in Georgia, that forces a run off. Georgia is becoming an interesting state. Rural areas are red as red can be, full of TEA partiers, but the urban areas keep expanding with non-Georgians, who are not such dedicated TEA party folks, and the younger generations of Georgians are increasingly blue. Savannah, Athens and Atlanta are pushing the State blue, it's just a question of whether it will turn this next election cycle or the one after. interesting update. thanks. this race seems more competitive than MS to me.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 2, 2014 16:57:25 GMT -5
The danger for Dems in MS is that their voters are the lowest of the low information voter. Dumberna box o'rocks. So, a bunch of those idiots they got to go out and vote for Cochran in the primary are going to do it again in November.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 2, 2014 17:00:24 GMT -5
alright, who are you, and what happened to WCPS? The GOP establishment doesn't like the TEA Party. The TEA Party knows this and doesn't like them. The establishment doesn't have a replacement for them yet, and sounds like from some of the TEA Party and activist events I've attended over the last year- and especially in the last three months, the TEA Party is willing to let 2014 go in order to build for 2016 and beyond. I could be wrong- Lord knows I'm good at making wrong predictions, but as motivated as Republicans are, I'm not certain the TEA Party contingent is going to be there for them the way they were in 2010. You can ask Mitt Romney how that went.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 2, 2014 17:04:06 GMT -5
The danger for Dems in MS is that their voters are the lowest of the low information voter. Dumberna box o'rocks. So, a bunch of those idiots they got to go out and vote for Cochran in the primary are going to do it again in November. I don't know if those are the lowest of the low information voters. In my fair state, during the last election for Sheriff, the Republicans ran around the county claiming that it was illegal for people to vote for both democrats or republicans - voting the straight party line was mandatory. (There was a very popular Democratic Sheriff candidate on the ticket). There was even some threats that it would be ILLEGAL to vote for a democratic sheriff and republican everything else. And some of our low information TEA party voters fell for it. I'm thinking they might be the lowest of the low information voters.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 2, 2014 17:26:50 GMT -5
The danger for Dems in MS is that their voters are the lowest of the low information voter. Dumberna box o'rocks. So, a bunch of those idiots they got to go out and vote for Cochran in the primary are going to do it again in November. I don't know if those are the lowest of the low information voters. In my fair state, during the last election for Sheriff, the Republicans ran around the county claiming that it was illegal for people to vote for both democrats or republicans - voting the straight party line was mandatory. (There was a very popular Democratic Sheriff candidate on the ticket). There was even some threats that it would be ILLEGAL to vote for a democratic sheriff and republican everything else. And some of our low information TEA party voters fell for it. I'm thinking they might be the lowest of the low information voters. I'm thinking the establishment anyone can't be counted on. I think the supposed "extremists" are the only ones that know what's going on. Sort of.
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Post by mmhmm on Sept 2, 2014 17:32:50 GMT -5
I don't know if those are the lowest of the low information voters. In my fair state, during the last election for Sheriff, the Republicans ran around the county claiming that it was illegal for people to vote for both democrats or republicans - voting the straight party line was mandatory. (There was a very popular Democratic Sheriff candidate on the ticket). There was even some threats that it would be ILLEGAL to vote for a democratic sheriff and republican everything else. And some of our low information TEA party voters fell for it. I'm thinking they might be the lowest of the low information voters. I'm thinking the establishment anyone can't be counted on. I think the supposed "extremists" are the only ones that know what's going on. Sort of. You should probably let ISIS know that. They probably already think it, but I'm sure they'd be overjoyed to know you agree.
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Post by EVT1 on Sept 2, 2014 19:20:19 GMT -5
The danger for Dems in MS is that their voters are the lowest of the low information voter. Dumberna box o'rocks. So, a bunch of those idiots they got to go out and vote for Cochran in the primary are going to do it again in November. Guess you have never been to rural MS- the hotbed of the tea party hillbillies. I'd argue MS is so red due to the amount of low information voters living in the sticks. Ever try and talk politics with Cooter Brown?
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Post by OldCoyote on Sept 2, 2014 23:37:57 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 3, 2014 0:55:54 GMT -5
The danger for Dems in MS is that their voters are the lowest of the low information voter. Dumberna box o'rocks. So, a bunch of those idiots they got to go out and vote for Cochran in the primary are going to do it again in November. Guess you have never been to rural MS- the hotbed of the tea party hillbillies. I'd argue MS is so red due to the amount of low information voters living in the sticks. Ever try and talk politics with Cooter Brown? i think Cochran is a shoo-in.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 3, 2014 1:00:27 GMT -5
alright, who are you, and what happened to WCPS? The GOP establishment doesn't like the TEA Party. The TEA Party knows this and doesn't like them. The establishment doesn't have a replacement for them yet, and sounds like from some of the TEA Party and activist events I've attended over the last year- and especially in the last three months, the TEA Party is willing to let 2014 go in order to build for 2016 and beyond. I could be wrong- Lord knows I'm good at making wrong predictions, but as motivated as Republicans are, I'm not certain the TEA Party contingent is going to be there for them the way they were in 2010. You can ask Mitt Romney how that went. i half way agree. but the TP has some candidates that they CAN support. looking at this list, i know that at least two are leading their races. not sure about the others. U.S. Senate Races - 2014 State Primary Date Endorsed Candidate Nebraska 05/13/14 Ben Sasse U.S. Congressional Races - 2014 State Primary Date Endorsed Candidate Georgia 11th 05/20/14 Barry Loudermilk Maryland 6th 06/24/14 Dan Bongino Oklahoma 1st 06/24/14 Jim Bridenstine West Virginia 2nd 05/13/14 Alex Mooney - See more at: www.teaparty911.com/info/tea-party-endorsed-candidates-by-state.htm#sthash.2XKo0Q3V.dpuf
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 3, 2014 6:21:26 GMT -5
The problem for the GOP is that they're ignoring the old adage- first win the argument, then win the election. The GOP doesn't seem to have an argument, or any interest in coming up with one. Like Mitt Romney, the approach is- "it's in the bag", and so, just don't do anything to rock the boat.
Romney tried this approach- he won the first debate handily, and from then on it was prevent defense. He thought he'd just run out the clock based on poll data from three weeks out. It was disastrous for him to let Obama walk on Benghazi for example. He looked impotent, Obama seemed "on".
I think the GOP is in the same position due to the same mindset- they feel it's "cyclical" and this time it's "their turn". They don't seem to grasp the historical fact that it was a conservative argument that won the GOP the House and the Senate for the first time in almost two generations in 1994.
It was conservative governance- including the first balanced budget in ages- that kept their majority. In 2006, a listless GOP lost the Senate, and in 2008, a weak GOP with no argument lost it all.
If the GOP wants to win a landslide, they need to look at the Reagan and Gingrich revolutions. (We can debate exactly how conservative they actually were later- the point is conservatism wins). Even Obama won on balancing the budget in 2008, and the immoral and unpatriotic Bush spending. Obama made other appealing conservative arguments, too. He did not run as a Frank Marshall Davis communist, or a Jeremiah Wright black liberation theology, anti-colonialist, Harvard faculty lounge whackadoo. And thanks to a media that covered for him- the argument worked.
The GOP has yet to make an argument since 1996.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 3, 2014 7:08:36 GMT -5
I would agree with this. Most GOP arguments seem to be along the lines of 'Obama Stinks' or 'Obamacare Stinks.'
I hear lots of pontificating on how Obamacare must be repealed but no united Republican policy put forth about how to replace it - or if their proposal is simply to go back to the broken system that we had prior to Obamacare.
Republicans are going to have to stop being the whiner party and become a party with a vision, and it needs to be a vision that includes women, young adults and minorities, otherwise the Republican party will continue to shrink as the older white men die off and the white population continues to shrink.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 3, 2014 10:31:09 GMT -5
The problem for the GOP is that they're ignoring the old adage- first win the argument, then win the election. The GOP doesn't seem to have an argument, or any interest in coming up with one. Like Mitt Romney, the approach is- "it's in the bag", and so, just don't do anything to rock the boat. Romney tried this approach- he won the first debate handily, and from then on it was prevent defense. He thought he'd just run out the clock based on poll data from three weeks out. It was disastrous for him to let Obama walk on Benghazi for example. He looked impotent, Obama seemed "on". I think the GOP is in the same position due to the same mindset- they feel it's "cyclical" and this time it's "their turn". They don't seem to grasp the historical fact that it was a conservative argument that won the GOP the House and the Senate for the first time in almost two generations in 1994. It was conservative governance- including the first balanced budget in ages- that kept their majority. In 2006, a listless GOP lost the Senate, and in 2008, a weak GOP with no argument lost it all. If the GOP wants to win a landslide, they need to look at the Reagan and Gingrich revolutions. (We can debate exactly how conservative they actually were later- the point is conservatism wins). Even Obama won on balancing the budget in 2008, and the immoral and unpatriotic Bush spending. Obama made other appealing conservative arguments, too. He did not run as a Frank Marshall Davis communist, or a Jeremiah Wright black liberation theology, anti-colonialist, Harvard faculty lounge whackadoo. And thanks to a media that covered for him- the argument worked. The GOP has yet to make an argument since 1996. i agree with most of this. where we disagree is that the media covered for Obama. i think he ran as a moderate because he is a moderate. and that is why he won a second term. liberals supported him less in 2012 than they did in 2008, but he managed to do about as well with independents and conservatives. and he has governed that way too.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 3, 2014 12:58:49 GMT -5
I would agree with this. Most GOP arguments seem to be along the lines of 'Obama Stinks' or 'Obamacare Stinks.' I hear lots of pontificating on how Obamacare must be repealed but no united Republican policy put forth about how to replace it - or if their proposal is simply to go back to the broken system that we had prior to Obamacare. Republicans are going to have to stop being the whiner party and become a party with a vision, and it needs to be a vision that includes women, young adults and minorities, otherwise the Republican party will continue to shrink as the older white men die off and the white population continues to shrink. Well, we could hijack the thread and go way off on a number of things here- but fundamentally, I agree with you. The GOP has no plan and no vision for the future- they're not making their case to the voters because they haven't got one. The demographics wouldn't be a problem if the GOP had a conservative vision for the future because conservatism isn't an old white guy thing, and it's not purely an ideology or an ism for that matter. It's the argument laid out in the Declaration- it's set of universal principles based on natural law. I've always felt it a shame that conservatives haven't yet found a way to make the case to anyone who's seen Pinocchio that one should be ware of the idea that anyone can promise you free candy and a good time without the motive of making you a dependent and enslaving you. However, the progressive argument that the government can provide you security- freedom from fear, lack, want, hunger, whatever- and that material provisions are your birthright- has actually worked extremely well.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 3, 2014 14:44:51 GMT -5
You're right, conservatism isn't an old white guy thing. There are plenty of people who would jump on the conservative bandwagon (including me) if it meant fiscal responsibility, and by that I mean across the board control of spending (including military spending) as well as reduction of entitlements, both the entitlements for the poor and special tax relief for big businesses and the 1%.
However the GOP keeps sounding sour notes. Resisting the increase in the minimum wage at a time when the gap between the rich and the poor has never been greater, and at a time when business profits are up, makes them seem like Scrooge McDuck in the pocket of the very wealthy and not advocates of the middle class. Similarly their tolerance of the GOP members who kept putting their feet in their mouths about birth control and abortion make them seem like the party of men who want to impose their rules on women.
If some conservative came forward with a vision for the future that focused on the middle class, reducing the public debt and encouraging business - and that was ALL he focused on - I think he would win the next presidental election.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 3, 2014 14:45:30 GMT -5
Oh and he would also have to show a commiteement to work across the aisle with the Dems like Ike did.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 5, 2014 12:47:23 GMT -5
jenkuznicki.com/2014/09/levin-you-got-what-you-wanted-gope-your-base-is-furious/Just a peak at the division within the Republican Party between the conservative base and the political class / GOP establishment. The GOP establishment, with a few notable exceptions, got the candidates they wanted. By hook or by crook, they got their people on the ballot. Now, they're in trouble, and somehow it's gotta be up to the conservatives / TEA Party activists to drag their candidates kicking and screaming across the finish line-- but as I've stated earlier in the thread-- I don't know, and I can't predict what'll happen (we all know that well), but I have a feeling the conservative base will have better things to do in November than make sure the RINOs win. Those that don't outright stay home, may find themselves voting libertarian- as I increasingly do when I bother to vote.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 5, 2014 12:49:29 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 6, 2014 14:24:44 GMT -5
sorry to interrupt, but how is the GOP in trouble?
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 6, 2014 14:26:52 GMT -5
You're right, conservatism isn't an old white guy thing. There are plenty of people who would jump on the conservative bandwagon (including me) if it meant fiscal responsibility, and by that I mean across the board control of spending (including military spending) as well as reduction of entitlements, both the entitlements for the poor and special tax relief for big businesses and the 1%. However the GOP keeps sounding sour notes. Resisting the increase in the minimum wage at a time when the gap between the rich and the poor has never been greater, and at a time when business profits are up, makes them seem like Scrooge McDuck in the pocket of the very wealthy and not advocates of the middle class. Similarly their tolerance of the GOP members who kept putting their feet in their mouths about birth control and abortion make them seem like the party of men who want to impose their rules on women. If some conservative came forward with a vision for the future that focused on the middle class, reducing the public debt and encouraging business - and that was ALL he focused on - I think he would win the next presidental election. i would like it if i felt at home in my party rather than at war with it all the time, too. like it or not, they NEED voices like mine, which are not the ones they are used to hearing. but truthfully, i feel completely shut out.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Sept 7, 2014 10:31:01 GMT -5
sorry to interrupt, but how is the GOP in trouble? You're the one that pointed out they're weak in KS, and KY.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 7, 2014 12:10:20 GMT -5
sorry to interrupt, but how is the GOP in trouble? You're the one that pointed out they're weak in KS, and KY. sure. but we are going to pick up seats in both the House and Senate. that doesn't seem like we are "in trouble" to me. did you mean that our plan to take over the Senate is in trouble? if so, i think you are right. but i don't think our chances would be better with TP candidates.
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Post by mmhmm on Sept 7, 2014 13:31:21 GMT -5
You're the one that pointed out they're weak in KS, and KY. sure. but we are going to pick up seats in both the House and Senate. that doesn't seem like we are "in trouble" to me. did you mean that our plan to take over the Senate is in trouble? if so, i think you are right. but i don't think our chances would be better with TP candidates. I'd be willing to bet the farm they'd be worse.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 7, 2014 13:41:40 GMT -5
sure. but we are going to pick up seats in both the House and Senate. that doesn't seem like we are "in trouble" to me. did you mean that our plan to take over the Senate is in trouble? if so, i think you are right. but i don't think our chances would be better with TP candidates. I'd be willing to bet the farm they'd be worse. so would Nate Silver- and he said so. no, this is about as well as the GOP could do. but the Democrats are proving to be crafty opponents. if they succeed in getting their candidate off the ballot in Kansas, it is a real game changer. it puts the GOP in the position of having to win another swing state, and unable to dedicate resources to a state that is leaning against them, like Colorado. in short, the race just got a helluvalot more interesting.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 11, 2014 9:48:29 GMT -5
so, this Kansas seat thing is super important. if democrats get their name off the ballot in KS, it will make all kinds of hell for the GOP incumbent. if the GOP LOSES that seat, then the odds of winning the majority are basically nil. however, it is not absolutely certain the Independent in that race would caucus with Democrats. if he does'nt, then the position is no better than the Democrats have now, which is that they are trailing for 51 VOTES in the senate.
interesting development: Begich has tanked in polling in Alaska. that was a seat i thought they would win. so i would still say that the GOP is favored to win the Senate UNLESS the Democratic candidate is successful at getting his name off the ballot in Kansas.
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