djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 30, 2014 14:12:42 GMT -5
here is an excellent overview of what is going on: www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2014-a-year-all-its-own/since Sabato posted this article (he is an excellent poll reader, btw), the Democrats have widened their straw poll standing by 1%, and now lead the straw poll by 2.5%, their best showing of the year. for those of you who are wondering: how can they be doing so well when Obama/ACA/Russia is doing so badly? the answer is that having watched these polls for a long time, they tend to be independent of one another. here are the NINE tossup states in this cycle: Alaska Arkansas Colorado Georgia Iowa Kentucky Louisiana Michigan North Carolina the GOP needs to win five of these 9. in Alaska, Begich is looking pretty good right now. if he runs against Sullivan, who is favored to win the primary in 3 weeks, it will probably be a cakewalk. i still say the Kentucky race is the most interesting of the bunch. McConnell is really unpopular (less popular than Obama), and his opponent is well known and well liked (Alison Grimes). even though this is a red state, i think McConnell has his work cut out for him. this one will probably be close. if anyone knows about those other races, please post on this thread.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 30, 2014 23:23:29 GMT -5
really? CMON!!! i know some of you live in these states. GIVE ME SOME DIRT!!!
|
|
EVT1
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 30, 2010 16:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 8,596
|
Post by EVT1 on Jul 30, 2014 23:31:32 GMT -5
really? CMON!!! i know some of you live in these states. GIVE ME SOME DIRT!!! I border KY and am rooting for Grimes- I like her. Hope she put that turtle on its back
I think he is going down- but no dirt, sorry.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2014 0:01:47 GMT -5
really? CMON!!! i know some of you live in these states. GIVE ME SOME DIRT!!! I border KY and am rooting for Grimes- I like her. Hope she put that turtle on its back
I think he is going down- but no dirt, sorry.
what makes that race interesting is that if McConnell wins, there is a better than 50/50 chance he will be majority leader. if he LOSES, however, then there is a good chance that Reid will keep his job. it is a VERY high stakes race.
|
|
EVT1
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 30, 2010 16:22:42 GMT -5
Posts: 8,596
|
Post by EVT1 on Jul 31, 2014 1:10:12 GMT -5
She is a very smart woman and has a great shot. Of course polls mean nothing
|
|
jkapp
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 23, 2010 12:05:08 GMT -5
Posts: 5,416
|
Post by jkapp on Jul 31, 2014 9:29:44 GMT -5
All this stuff reminds me about is that I will not be missing CNN's "wall" where they throw the map of the US up with its blues and reds, and then circle the states up for grabs to play with the numbers...ugh! I hated that stupid thing
|
|
Blonde Granny
Junior Associate
Joined: Jan 15, 2013 8:27:13 GMT -5
Posts: 6,919
Today's Mood: Alone in the world
Location: Wandering Aimlessly
Mini-Profile Name Color: 28e619
Mini-Profile Text Color: 3a9900
|
Post by Blonde Granny on Jul 31, 2014 10:06:59 GMT -5
Arkansas has a battle going on for the worst commercials of the year. Pryor ran one last winter where he is sitting in his wonderful chair with a bible on his lap. Good grief save me from that....and him. Pryor has now attacked that Cotton met secretly with some high rollers (we all know how dreadful people are that have money) and that Cotton is in bed with Wall Street.
That's about all for now, I'd say it's still a race to lose not necessarily a race to win.
Oh...and let's not forget the race for Governor, each one is trying to tell us that they are the tried and true person to protect the values of Arkansas....Values? like what? where a high school football coach makes $100K year. And the Bentonville School District tried to get a bond issue passed for $130M, most of which would go to the Bentonville High School(s) for the athletic Dept. Reading & math? nah, we don't need no stinking reading or math....we need football championships and an indoor practice field for football. Those are the values that Arkansas has.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2014 10:56:28 GMT -5
Arkansas has a battle going on for the worst commercials of the year. Pryor ran one last winter where he is sitting in his wonderful chair with a bible on his lap. Good grief save me from that....and him. Pryor has now attacked that Cotton met secretly with some high rollers (we all know how dreadful people are that have money) and that Cotton is in bed with Wall Street.
That's about all for now, I'd say it's still a race to lose not necessarily a race to win. not sure i understand you: you saying that this one favors the incumbent?
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2014 10:57:01 GMT -5
OH EVT1, how could you say that to polldancer? You rendered him speechless! hehe. you GUYS!
|
|
Blonde Granny
Junior Associate
Joined: Jan 15, 2013 8:27:13 GMT -5
Posts: 6,919
Today's Mood: Alone in the world
Location: Wandering Aimlessly
Mini-Profile Name Color: 28e619
Mini-Profile Text Color: 3a9900
|
Post by Blonde Granny on Jul 31, 2014 11:37:04 GMT -5
Arkansas has a battle going on for the worst commercials of the year. Pryor ran one last winter where he is sitting in his wonderful chair with a bible on his lap. Good grief save me from that....and him. Pryor has now attacked that Cotton met secretly with some high rollers (we all know how dreadful people are that have money) and that Cotton is in bed with Wall Street.
That's about all for now, I'd say it's still a race to lose not necessarily a race to win. not sure i understand you: you saying that this one favors the incumbent? No, at this point I'm saying that neither one holds and edge. If there is one, my guess is that Pryor will get reelected. You know the story..."throw the scoundrels out, just no my scoundrel" About the only place here that is a solid Red area in where we are in NW Arkansas...even the Clintons won't come here. Of course, driving thru here when entering the state you will NOT see any signs that say "home of WJ Clinton our whatever # President."
If there is corporate money to be had, and boy is there ever, WMT, JB Hunt & Tyson will mostly go to Pryor.
|
|
jkapp
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 23, 2010 12:05:08 GMT -5
Posts: 5,416
|
Post by jkapp on Jul 31, 2014 12:46:02 GMT -5
Our governor race in WI is heating up now too...even though we just went through this crap with Scott Walker's recall election. The ads are actually pretty funny, though. Walker's opponent (Burke) put out an ad slamming Walker for giving tax breaks to businesses that shipped jobs overseas...except Burke's company is one of the businesses that shipped jobs overseas!!! A pretty lame move by the opposition so early in the election cycle...
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Aug 31, 2014 22:10:31 GMT -5
ok, just two months away now. not much has changed, but here are the factors for the GOP: POSITIVE: Obama's approval has softened a couple of points in the last month or two. not good for Democrats. is now around 41-42% approval. not a good number. POSITIVE: out of the 4 poll watchers out there, three of them are predicting the GOP will take over the Senate- but most are saying it will be 51-49. very thin margin. POSITIVE: the situation in Syria is a no-win for Obama. i think this hurts him going forward, and this will rub off on Democrats. POSITIVE: in most of the close battles, the Democrats are losing ground. there are either going to be a lot of close races, or it will be a bad year for Democrats, or both. NEGATIVE: polling for Democrats has been stronger than expected. races like Kentucky, which appeared to be runaways for the GOP are close. NEGATIVE: the straw polling numbers for the GOP pretty much suck. in May they were tied with the Dems, and now they are trailing by 1-3 points in generic balloting. NEGATIVE: every month this recovery goes on is bad for the GOP. people will take the losers they know over those they don't. that means "not flipping". NEGATIVE: the tipping point state is now NC, where the GOP leads by 1%. it is going to be that kind of a year. for those of you out there that are Democrats, and scared about the Fall, here is the ONE GUY that thinks they are going to win: election.princeton.edu/2014/08/28/senate-democrats-are-outperforming-expectations/oh, and for the record, that guy is really good. his record is better than Nate Silver on Senate races. think his name is Wang or something.
|
|
tallguy
Senior Associate
Joined: Apr 2, 2011 19:21:59 GMT -5
Posts: 14,193
|
Post by tallguy on Aug 31, 2014 23:36:37 GMT -5
I was just reading that article and started thinking, "What does dj think of this guy? Better go ask."
(And yes, it is Sam Wang. I got there from here.)
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Aug 31, 2014 23:55:31 GMT -5
I was just reading that article and started thinking, "What does dj think of this guy? Better go ask."
(And yes, it is Sam Wang. I got there from here.) not sure where i heard about him. he came up on a list of pollwatchers along with Sabato and Silver, both of whom i like. Wang fails to acknowledge that a lot of these races are slipping away from Democrats. there are exceptions of course. one of the most interesting ones is Kentucky. i have my own way of viewing polls. i tend to think that small changes don't matter that much, and that the trend is more important. and that plays out bad for most Democrats. but in this case, Grimes is gaining ground over the long trend with McConnell- and i think that is going to make matters very difficult for him. he tends to rely on his standard campaigning style, but as we have seen, this has not played out well for mainstream GOP candidates in the last several cycles. she is new. she is young. she is pretty. she is well liked in KY. in all of those ways, she is about as far away from McConell as you can get. what it will really boil down to is how much change they want.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2014 0:09:58 GMT -5
tg- i think this is the COOLEST site out there: www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/history.htmlthis shows ALL OF THE RACES. you can see the close ones, and you can watch the trends on ALL of them! i think their call for 46 dems is right. however, i think AR and KY are trending badly for the GOP, so i would put them at 47. let's look at these races one at a time: KY: nobody thinks the Dems can win there, but i do. i don't think people get Grimes at all. she is a really good campaigner. i put here at better than 50/50 to win. AR: Prior is polling better lately, but i expect him to lose. pencil this one in for the GOP LA: Landreau has never lead this race, and i expect her to lose, but she is going to make it close. this is one to watch. GOP: 49, Dems 47 NC: this is a dead heat. there is no way i am going to call this, and anyone who does, right now, is a fool. these candidates have literally been tied for months. AK: polling is close on this, but i think Begich is going to win. GOP:49, DEMS:48 IA: this is trending really badly for Democrats, but i think the demographics might play to the Democrats on this: GOP:49, DEM:49 CO: this is ALSO trending badly for Democrats, but again, i think that in a statewide election, even in an off year, the advantage is with Udall. GOP:49, DEM:50 so, IA, CO, and NC are all dead heats, and are all purple states leaning blue. dems need to win two of them. i think it is entirely possible that they will.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2014 0:11:19 GMT -5
note: Georgia and Michigan have been taken off the table for me. these are possible tossups still, but they are in the 10 percentile range, imo.
|
|
tallguy
Senior Associate
Joined: Apr 2, 2011 19:21:59 GMT -5
Posts: 14,193
|
Post by tallguy on Sept 1, 2014 2:02:19 GMT -5
That is good. Thank you.
If this were the Republican Party of years ago I wouldn't really be concerned. The far-right and Tea Party know-nothings though....
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2014 11:34:48 GMT -5
That is good. Thank you.
If this were the Republican Party of years ago I wouldn't really be concerned. The far-right and Tea Party know-nothings though....
the possibility of impeachment and removal is what worries me. then again, who wants Biden?
|
|
zibazinski
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 24, 2010 16:12:50 GMT -5
Posts: 47,869
|
Post by zibazinski on Sept 1, 2014 11:53:50 GMT -5
The senate, even if taken over by republicans will never get rid of obama
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2014 12:00:58 GMT -5
The senate, even if taken over by republicans will never get rid of obama they will if they pass a rules change that allows a simple majority vote. of course, this would be a disaster for Republicans. it would destroy the party, imo. but i would not put it past them. at all. they have done some amazingly stupid stuff this last 5.5 years.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,512
|
Post by billisonboard on Sept 1, 2014 13:02:13 GMT -5
The senate, even if taken over by republicans will never get rid of obama they will if they pass a rules change that allows a simple majority vote. ... The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present. www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2014 13:03:29 GMT -5
they will if they pass a rules change that allows a simple majority vote. ... The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present. www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html oh yeah. that. i totally forgot. yeah, it will never happen. ok.
|
|
The Captain
Junior Associate
Hugs are good...
Joined: Jan 4, 2011 16:21:23 GMT -5
Posts: 8,717
Location: State of confusion
Favorite Drink: Whinnnne
|
Post by The Captain on Sept 1, 2014 13:13:32 GMT -5
DJ!!! - I really appreciate your enthusiam for the subject matter... But - may I gently suggest you try and get out more? (BTW - yes, I checked it out - it is a really cool site, but the coolest?)
|
|
zibazinski
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 24, 2010 16:12:50 GMT -5
Posts: 47,869
|
Post by zibazinski on Sept 1, 2014 13:31:05 GMT -5
Wasnt Clinton impeached? Nothing happened to him.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2014 15:37:00 GMT -5
Wasnt Clinton impeached? Nothing happened to him. true. i even remembered the 2/3 rule. i just forgot that it was constitutional. my bad.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2014 15:37:46 GMT -5
DJ!!! - I really appreciate your enthusiam for the subject matter... But - may I gently suggest you try and get out more? (BTW - yes, I checked it out - it is a really cool site, but the coolest?) i have a moniker to live up to, cap.
|
|
zibazinski
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 24, 2010 16:12:50 GMT -5
Posts: 47,869
|
Post by zibazinski on Sept 1, 2014 15:56:39 GMT -5
They'll never get 2/3rds
|
|
resolution
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:09:56 GMT -5
Posts: 7,001
Mini-Profile Name Color: 305b2b
|
Post by resolution on Sept 1, 2014 15:59:02 GMT -5
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2014 17:38:26 GMT -5
i mentioned that in post 12, albeit obliquely. edit: i should note that Nate uses a weird methodology for the senate. he doesn't do it on a race by race basis. he does it on the basis of probability per state. this is actually a similar model that he used for the elections- but with one caveat. he only gives odds to 5%. so, the two races he considers closest (Alaska and NC) are both rated 50/50. what does that mean, tho? it means that, according to Silver, they could go either way. and of course, that is true. but that also means, with two states in that category, that were they not to be split, the winner would pick up +1 seat. on other words, if one party wins BOTH of those states (i think that fairly likely), the result would EITHER be 52:48 GOP OR 50:50 DEM.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,233
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2014 17:38:54 GMT -5
agreed. hell would freeze over first.
|
|