Senate 2014: GOP favored to win majority

[Value Buy]

Bookmark this post

Senate numbers after the election

Republicans 51

Democrats 49

Could be 52 to 48, but will stick with 51 to 49

I know this is a huge swing, and hard to actually do.

Some polls are beginning to see Democrats in big trouble with American voters

[djAdvocate]

Sept 11, 2014 17:26:29 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Bookmark this post

Senate numbers after the election

Republicans 51

Democrats 49

Could be 52 to 48, but will stick with 51 to 49

I know this is a huge swing, and hard to actually do.

Some polls are beginning to see Democrats in big trouble with American voters

the prediction has been 51:49 for the last six months, VB. 

so, good prediction, i guess? 

[djAdvocate]

the Kansas court is going to hear the Democrat's appeal to be removed from the ballot, but the wording indicates that he will go strictly off what is written, and if so, Todd is going to lose this fight, and will remain on the ballot.

this is really a weird one.

[EVT1]

Sept 11, 2014 22:05:21 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the Kansas court is going to hear the Democrat's appeal to be removed from the ballot, but the wording indicates that he will go strictly off what is written, and if so, Todd is going to lose this fight, and will remain on the ballot.

this is really a weird one.

Save me some time- what is going on here?

[djAdvocate]

Sept 11, 2014 22:39:58 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Sept 11, 2014 22:05:21 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the Kansas court is going to hear the Democrat's appeal to be removed from the ballot, but the wording indicates that he will go strictly off what is written, and if so, Todd is going to lose this fight, and will remain on the ballot.

this is really a weird one.

Save me some time- what is going on here?

Kansas has a relatively weak incumbent Republican Senator, but has not voted Democrat since 1932.
There is a strong independent in the race that is dividing the anti-incumbent vote.
If BOTH of the players stay in the game, they will likely lose, and the GOP will maintain the seat.
The Democrat, noting this fact, and noting the futility of it, decided to drop out.
However, the wording of his withdrawal is not marrying well with the standards for withdrawal.
Recent polling indicates that the Independent is leading the GOP candidate as of today.

The status of the Democrat on the ballot is to be determined by 9/19/14.

[EVT1]

Got it thanks

[djAdvocate]

Sept 11, 2014 23:39:48 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Got it thanks

np.  there are a few other small wrinkles here, but that is the basic thumbnail.

[djAdvocate]

updates:

there has been a LOT of poll movement in the last week.

in favor of Democrats:

Michigan, Colorado, NC, and Iowa

in favor of Republicans:

Kentucky, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Alaska

if the trends continue, the GOP will win 51.  however, a lot could happen in the following states to rock the applecart:

North Carolina
Iowa
Alaska
Louisiana
Arkansas
Kansas
Georgia
Kentucky

if i HAD TO GUESS, i would bet that the GOP wins the last (5) on this list, and the Dems win the first three.  but i have considerable uncertainty at this point with ALL of these.  in other words, i think the top (3) are leaning Dem (i would have to go to considerable lengths to explain why i think so in the case of Alaska), and the bottom (5) are favoring the GOP.

i honestly don't see any way the GOP can get more than 51 at this point.  they could end up getting a lot less, however. 

[djAdvocate]

to put it another way:

Georgia, Kansas and Arkansas are GOP states.  however, the polling has not gone well, and there are some issues going on in those three states that might make them competitive for Democrats (or "non-Republicans" in the case of Kansas).  however, a lot has to go wrong with the GOP in those three states and the margin of error for Democrats is nil.

Michigan, Iowa and Colorado have been trending Democrat for two months now.  the GOP would have to do a lot right and nothing wrong to win them at this point.

Louisiana and Kentucky have been trending GOP for two months now.  the Democrats would have to do a lot right and nothing wrong to win them at this point.

this leaves NC and Alaska.  recently, Rasmussen, which had a 4% GOP bias in the last election, showed Hagen up big.  with two months to go, and most of the polls leaning her way, that one appears to be out of reach for the GOP.  therefore, this whole race might hinge on Alaska, where Begich is trailing in most of the polls.  however, ALL of the polls he is trailing in are GOP leaning polls.  the absence of good quality polls in this race make it especially difficult to call.  Begich might be up by as much as 4%, or trailing by about the same amount.  and since the election polls in AK close last, it may be that the GOP is unable to declare victory (if there is to be one) until well after everyone other than us left-coasters has gone to bed.

i think the range here is 51=GOP to 55=Dem- but i think 51=GOP is way more likely than 55=DEM.  the most likely result is right around 50/50.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 31, 2014 22:10:31 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

ok, just two months away now.  not much has changed, but here are the factors for the GOP:

POSITIVE: Obama's approval has softened a couple of points in the last month or two.  not good for Democrats.  is now around 41-42% approval.  not a good number.
POSITIVE: out of the 4 poll watchers out there, three of them are predicting the GOP will take over the Senate- but most are saying it will be 51-49.  very thin margin.
POSITIVE: the situation in Syria is a no-win for Obama.  i think this hurts him going forward, and this will rub off on Democrats.
POSITIVE: in most of the close battles, the Democrats are losing ground.  there are either going to be a lot of close races, or it will be a bad year for Democrats, or both.

NEGATIVE: polling for Democrats has been stronger than expected.  races like Kentucky, which appeared to be runaways for the GOP are close.
NEGATIVE: the straw polling numbers for the GOP pretty much suck.  in May they were tied with the Dems, and now they are trailing by 1-3 points in generic balloting.
NEGATIVE: every month this recovery goes on is bad for the GOP.  people will take the losers they know over those they don't.  that means "not flipping".
NEGATIVE: the tipping point state is now NC, where the GOP leads by 1%.  it is going to be that kind of a year.

for those of you out there that are Democrats, and scared about the Fall, here is the ONE GUY that thinks they are going to win:

election.princeton.edu/2014/08/28/senate-democrats-are-outperforming-expectations/

oh, and for the record, that guy is really good.  his record is better than Nate Silver on Senate races.  think his name is Wang or something.

of the above, written 2 weeks ago, the following has changed:

the situation in Syria is getting overshadowed by other issues = + for democrats
straw polling numbers are +2% for the GOP = + for republicans
continued good economic numbers = - for republicans
tipping point state is now Alaska = - for republicans

this has shifted slightly in favor of dems, and the polling compilers are reflecting it.  of the four agencies out there tracking the senate, three of them are now saying the democrats will hold on (KOS, Princeton, and Upshot) and only one is saying the GOP will take over (Nate Silver's 538).  interestingly, silver does not view the development in Kansas as altering the landscape (+2% chance to dems).  the other three all boosted the chance 7-10%, however.  the reasons for all of this are too complicated to discuss here, but keep in mind that several swing states, CO, IA, and NC have all polled really well for the dems in the last week, and that has had at least as much to do with this shift as what is going on in Kansas.

one last thing about KS.  KS may vote out the GOP for governor, secretary of state, AND for senator this year, making a very unusual sweep in a very red state.  this FACT may make the GOP's job even harder in that state (that democrats are going to the polls in larger than expected numbers).

in any case, as i said all along in this thread, i still think the landscape favors Republicans- but there is some hope for Democrats out there at this point that they MAY retain the senate, albeit by the thinnest of margins.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Sept 7, 2014 13:41:40 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 7, 2014 13:31:21 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

I'd be willing to bet the farm they'd be worse.

so would Nate Silver- and he said so.
no, this is about as well as the GOP could do.
but the Democrats are proving to be crafty opponents.
if they succeed in getting their candidate off the ballot in Kansas, it is a real game changer.
it puts the GOP in the position of having to win another swing state, and unable to
dedicate resources to a state that is leaning against them, like Colorado.

in short, the race just got a helluvalot more interesting.

Conservatives are the country's largest ideological group. Alienating them is not a good strategy. I don't think that TEA Party candidates, or supposed self-identifying TEA Party candidates are an "automatic" win, but I know RINOs, moderate to liberal Republicans are a damn-near an automatic loss. If the GOP is to win, conservatism is the way. I don't know how many more RINOs will have to go down in flames to get this message across, and I frankly don't really care. You're right about one thing, though- it will be interesting to watch. I am actually voting in Florida in November. I wasn't going to, but we've got Amendment 2- decriminalizing marijuana, and a Libertarian candidate for governor that I like- Adrian Wyllie- wyllieforgovernor.com/ , and I don't mind my US Rep Bill Posey- he's spot on on man-made climate change-- a regular "denier" that drives the neo-pagan earth-worshipers nuts, so I'll probably vote for him.

[kadee79]

I live rural Ga.....far away from Atlanta, Athens, Savannah, and even Macon.

We may have a majority of GOP down here, but the last primary (not the run off) showed me that there were a lot of folks who are changing their minds.

We had several independents that got WAY more votes than ever in the past.

I also happen to think that a lot of folks "crossed over" in the run off and will be voting for Nunn come election day!

And yes, her commercials that are running down here are hitting home.  I haven't even seen a one for that other dude!

And BTW, I live fairly close to Saxby's home town!  

[djAdvocate]

Sept 13, 2014 14:10:55 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Sept 7, 2014 13:41:40 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

so would Nate Silver- and he said so.
no, this is about as well as the GOP could do.
but the Democrats are proving to be crafty opponents.
if they succeed in getting their candidate off the ballot in Kansas, it is a real game changer.
it puts the GOP in the position of having to win another swing state, and unable to
dedicate resources to a state that is leaning against them, like Colorado.

in short, the race just got a helluvalot more interesting.

Conservatives are the country's largest ideological group. Alienating them is not a good strategy. I don't think that TEA Party candidates, or supposed self-identifying TEA Party candidates are an "automatic" win, but I know RINOs, moderate to liberal Republicans are a damn-near an automatic loss. If the GOP is to win, conservatism is the way. I don't know how many more RINOs will have to go down in flames to get this message across, and I frankly don't really care. You're right about one thing, though- it will be interesting to watch. I am actually voting in Florida in November. I wasn't going to, but we've got Amendment 2- decriminalizing marijuana, and a Libertarian candidate for governor that I like- Adrian Wyllie- wyllieforgovernor.com/ , and I don't mind my US Rep Bill Posey- he's spot on on man-made climate change-- a regular "denier" that drives the neo-pagan earth-worshipers nuts, so I'll probably vote for him.

neither conservatives NOR liberals have enough votes to win on their own.  they need moderates.  engaging in a ritual purification rite in the GOP is not a way to win majority favor.

[happyhoix]

Sept 13, 2014 14:43:46 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

I live rural Ga.....far away from Atlanta, Athens, Savannah, and even Macon.

We may have a majority of GOP down here, but the last primary (not the run off) showed me that there were a lot of folks who are changing their minds.

We had several independents that got WAY more votes than ever in the past.

I also happen to think that a lot of folks "crossed over" in the run off and will be voting for Nunn come election day!

And yes, her commercials that are running down here are hitting home.  I haven't even seen a one for that other dude!

And BTW, I live fairly close to Saxby's home town!  

Interesting that you are seeing even a rural GA area making a shift. I also live in a very rural GA area and it doesn't feel like there is much of a political shift occuring - the people who make the biggest noise policially around here are the TEA partiers - but now that you've said this, I'm interested to see how the next election goes.

One problem our little rural area has is there is not much industry or jobs, other than fast food, so we have a large ratio of older retired people here - most of the young adults move someplace else when they graduate. I can't think of any of DS's friends that stayed here post high school. I'm curious if that will continue to keep our county pointed in such a strongly conservative way or if maybe there is some change creeping in here, too.

I think last time we were 89% republican. Let's see what our next election brings.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 15, 2014 14:15:12 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Sept 13, 2014 14:43:46 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

I live rural Ga.....far away from Atlanta, Athens, Savannah, and even Macon.

We may have a majority of GOP down here, but the last primary (not the run off) showed me that there were a lot of folks who are changing their minds.

We had several independents that got WAY more votes than ever in the past.

I also happen to think that a lot of folks "crossed over" in the run off and will be voting for Nunn come election day!

And yes, her commercials that are running down here are hitting home.  I haven't even seen a one for that other dude!

And BTW, I live fairly close to Saxby's home town!  

Interesting that you are seeing even a rural GA area making a shift. I also live in a very rural GA area and it doesn't feel like there is much of a political shift occuring - the people who make the biggest noise policially around here are the TEA partiers - but now that you've said this, I'm interested to see how the next election goes.

One problem our little rural area has is there is not much industry or jobs, other than fast food, so we have a large ratio of older retired people here - most of the young adults move someplace else when they graduate. I can't think of any of DS's friends that stayed here post high school. I'm curious if that will continue to keep our county pointed in such a strongly conservative way or if maybe there is some change creeping in here, too.

I think last time we were 89% republican. Let's see what our next election brings.

there are 700k unregistered black voters in GA.  the Democrats are making a big push to register them.  so far, they have registered 90k.  run a quick calculation, based on standard voting patterns (40% participation, 80-90% democratic voting pattern) and see how it makes the coming senatorial election look for Nunn.

[happyhoix]

there are 700k unregistered black voters in GA. the Democrats are making a big push to register them. so far, they have registered 90k. run a quick calculation, based on standard voting patterns (40% participation, 80-90% democratic voting pattern) and see how it makes the coming senatorial election look for Nunn.

Well, that will work in the state as a whole, but I live in the smallest, poorest, most white and most republican county in the State - I think we are 99% white, and the rest are the Indian family that runs one of the gas stations and the Asian family that runs the Chinese restaurant and about five Hispanic families. There is one black kid at the HS but I think he's adopted and I don't know if he's old enough to vote so I don't know if he counts (seriously, this is a REALLY small town). 

We don't have enough black voters to make any kind of a difference in this county, but I will be really interested to see if more than 11% of the county population votes democratic - and also what percentage votes for the libertarian candidate (and I think there will be a goodly amount of those).  I would love our little county to become more mixed - economically, politically, religiously, racially mixed.

[deziloooooo]

Sept 1, 2014 15:37:46 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 1, 2014 13:13:32 GMT -5 The Captain said:

DJ!!! - I really appreciate your enthusiam for the subject matter...

But - may I gently suggest you try and get out more?

(BTW - yes, I checked it out - it is a really cool site, but the coolest?)

i have a moniker to live up to, cap.

Funny but I was thinking along the same lines...


"DJ!!! - I really appreciate your enthusiam for the subject matter...But - may I gently suggest you try and get out more? "

If I can remember correctly , you , DJ, where not   very supportive or appreciative of our current POTUS from before day one..so I guess this , midterms, Senate race, is important to you..like all inclusive , most important..almost world ending type of importance..?

If the Senate changes, do you feel this will really change anything considering how  polar  opposites the executive and legislative branches are today...{ remember only two years left after elections till 2016..}  How much Reid and his opposite literally hate each other and if they where not  so old and decrepide they probably would have been doing real physical harm to each other ...but because of who and what they are they just refuse to have anything to do with each other...our legislative departments in all their glory..and we allow it by sending them and their followers back rather then sh*t canning them and starting all over...{sigh}

[djAdvocate]

Sept 15, 2014 16:21:58 GMT -5 deziloooooo said:

Sept 1, 2014 15:37:46 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i have a moniker to live up to, cap.

Funny but I was thinking along the same lines...


"DJ!!! - I really appreciate your enthusiam for the subject matter...But - may I gently suggest you try and get out more? "

If I can remember correctly , you , DJ, where not   very supportive or appreciative of our current POTUS from before day one..

i made up my mind that anyone that was in favor of the surge was not going to get my vote.

so I guess this , midterms, Senate race, is important to you..like all inclusive , most important..almost world ending type of importance..?

no, i don't think it is that important.  if the GOP wins, the Obama administration is kinda over.  but it is already 90% over because of all the partisanship.

If the Senate changes, do you feel this will really change.......

well, of course.  the Senate has unilateral authority for a number of things.  anything that the Senate does now under this president (ie, judicial appointments) will no longer get done if the GOP wins.  some view that as a good thing.  i have mixed feelings.  ie- not having an ambassador to Russia is not really a great idea.

[djAdvocate]

the polls are close in Arkansas, but Pryor is pulling away, and i don't think that he is @ risk any more.

Republican solid : 46
Democrat solid: 47

Leaning Democrat: NC, IA
Leaning Republican: AR, GA

Tossup: LA, KS, AK

the decision in Kansas looms large.
Louisiana is closer than most people think.  all polls have favored the GOP, but are within margin of error.
i have already commented about Alaska.

we are going to know a lot more by the end of this week.  KS supremes are hearing arguments tomorrow, and rendering decision by Friday.

[EVT1]

An argument was made today that even if they have to let him off the ballot then the Democrats must run someone?!?!

Did not know our system worked like that.   Nice try.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 16, 2014 13:38:01 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

An argument was made today that even if they have to let him off the ballot then the Democrats must run someone?!?!

Did not know our system worked like that.   Nice try.

they should run someone totally unqualified.  someone who is a total f(*king joke.

edit: OOH@!  they should run a COMMUNIST!  that would be awesome.  or a drug addict!

edit2: on days like this, i wish i was chair of the Democratic Party of Kansas.

[EVT1]

     Kobach argues that even if he's forced to remove Taylor's name from the ballot, Democrats are obligated under state law to find another nominee. The court did not address that issue during the arguments.

     Kobach said after the the hearing that he's ready to file his own state Supreme Court petition if Taylor is off the ballot and Democratic leaders won't name a new candidate.

news.yahoo.com/kansas-judges-why-democrat-kept-ballot-163846161--election.html

I don't understand that one at all- why would a state law require a political party to field a candidate?

Question is- which way does the independent lean- is it an unknown?  No idea which way it tilts the Senate if elected? 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 16, 2014 14:22:29 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

     Kobach argues that even if he's forced to remove Taylor's name from the ballot, Democrats are obligated under state law to find another nominee. The court did not address that issue during the arguments.

     Kobach said after the the hearing that he's ready to file his own state Supreme Court petition if Taylor is off the ballot and Democratic leaders won't name a new candidate.

news.yahoo.com/kansas-judges-why-democrat-kept-ballot-163846161--election.html

I don't understand that one at all- why would a state law require a political party to field a candidate?

i think it is stupid, myself.  but if that is how they want it, i think they should run someone completely idiotic, just to show how little respect they have for this particular rule.

Question is- which way does the independent lean- is it an unknown?  No idea which way it tilts the Senate if elected? 

yes, i know all about that. 

he leans Democrat, but he has already said that he will "quorum with the majority".  this means that if the GOP gets 51 seats, he will quorum with the GOP.  if the Democrats get 50 seats, he will quorum with the Democrats.

the tricky issue is "what will he do if the Democrats win 49 seats", and most political observers believe that he would quorum with the Democrats.  if i were Taylor, i would have got him to agree to that before i withdrew, but i don't believe he did that.

[EVT1]

Muy importante! I can see why this race could be a game changer. 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 16, 2014 14:31:40 GMT -5 EVT1 said:

Muy importante! I can see why this race could be a game changer. 

yeah, there are two things about this race that are BIG.

one is that the GOP guy is really really conservative.  so, getting a moderate in there would be a blow to the GOP.
the second is in the event of a tie.  in that case, i think the GOP loses, as well.

for the record, i think the GOP is going to lose this seat.  but none of the pollsters do, at this point.

[EVT1]

The court seems to think that he should be off the ballot- not a qualifier in it.

[djAdvocate]

if the GOP loses KS, i think they are in trouble in the Senate.

[djAdvocate]

some more changes today (update from post 79):

on the strength of a new poll out in IA, i am moving that state from "Leans Democrat" to "Tossup".
and on the strength of a new poll out in LA, i am moving that state from "Tossup" to "Leans Republican".
    NOTE: this latest poll looks REALLY BAD for Landreiu.  if she gets one more like this, i am calling LA for the GOP.

so, the sure things stay the same, here are the new totals for less than sure:

Leaning Democrat: NC
Leaning Republican: AR, GA, LA

Tossup: IA, KS, AK

GOP needs to win (5) of those seven to take over.  that looks a lot more possible today than it did a few days ago.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 18, 2014 12:46:15 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the Kansas SC just voted that the Democrat had the right to withdraw, and did it properly enough.
on the basis of this, i am moving KS to Leaning Independent.  i am almost ready to pull the trigger on
LA and GA and give them to the GOP.  but i am close to pulling the trigger for NC, as well.

Leaning Independent: KS
Leaning Democrat: NC
Leaning Republican: AR, GA, LA

Tossup: IA, AK

GOP needs to win (5) of those seven to take over.  that looks a lot more possible today than it did a few days ago.

[Value Buy]

Don't worry dj

The GOP is primed to disappoint on election day

If only we could get 53 and really have a strong majority.

Gives us 2 years to show the nation the way to sanity

Not that we would be able to do it........