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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 25, 2011 19:52:24 GMT -5
President Barack Obama is likely to be defeated in 2012. The reason is that he faces four serious threats. The economy is very weak and unlikely to experience a robust recovery by Election Day. Key voter groups have soured on him. He's defending unpopular policies. And he's made bad strategic decisions. Let's start with the economy. Unemployment is at 9.1%, with almost 14 million Americans out of work. Nearly half the jobless have been without work for more than six months. Mr. Obama promised much better, declaring that his February 2009 stimulus would cause unemployment to peak at 8% by the end of summer 2009 and drop to roughly 6.8% today. After boasting in June 2010 that "Our economy . . . is now growing at a good clip," he laughingly admitted last week, "Shovel-ready was not as shovel-ready as we expected." The humor will be lost on most. In Wednesday's Bloomberg poll, Americans believe they are worse off than when Mr. Obama took office by a 44% to 34% margin. The last president re-elected with unemployment over 7.2% was FDR in 1936. Ronald Reagan overcame 7.2% unemployment because the rate was dropping dramatically (it had been over 10%) as the economy grew very rapidly in 1983 and 1984. Today, in contrast, the Federal Reserve says growth will be less than 3% this year and less than 3.8% next year, with unemployment between 7.8% and 8.2% by Election Day. Mr. Obama also has problems with his base. For example, Jewish voters are upset with his policy toward Israel, and left-wing bloggers at last week's NetRoots conference were angry over Mr. Obama's failure to deliver a leftist utopia. Weak Jewish support could significantly narrow Mr. Obama's margin in states like Florida, while a disappointed left could deprive him of the volunteers so critical to his success in 2008. Mr. Obama's standing has declined among other, larger groups. Gallup reported his job approval rating Tuesday at 45%, down from 67% at his inaugural. Among the groups showing a larger-than-average decline since 2009 are whites (down 25 points); older voters (down 24); independents and college graduates (both down 23), those with a high-school education or less, men, and Southerners (all down 22); women (down 21 points); married couples and those making $2,000-$4,000 a month (down 20). This all points to severe trouble in suburbs and midsized cities in states likes Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Karl Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush. He is a Fox News contributor and author of "Courage and Consequence" (Threshold Editions, 2010). To continue reading his column in The Wall Street Journal, click here. Read more: www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/06/23/why-obama-will-likely-lose-2012-presidential-election/#ixzz1QL4z8Z4hwww.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/06/23/why-obama-will-likely-lose-2012-presidential-election/
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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 25, 2011 19:55:42 GMT -5
Mr. Obama also has problems with his base. For example, Jewish voters are upset with his policy toward Israel,"Upset" mayb be an understatement...Jewish voter don't like the huge distance that Obama has placed between him and Netanyahu...They think Obama is Pro Palestinian and Anti-Israel... To date, Obama's stewardship of US foreign policy has been marked by gross naivete, incompetence and a marked willingness to demean and weaken his country's moral standing in the world.
Imagine what will happen if in the next year and a half Obama embarks on a course that makes his Israel policy the norm rather than the exception in US foreign policy.Originally published in The Jerusalem Post. www.carolineglick.com/e/2011/06/an-obama-foreign-policy.php
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 25, 2011 20:08:14 GMT -5
President Barack Obama is likely to be defeated in 2012. The reason is that he faces four serious threats. The economy is very weak and unlikely to experience a robust recovery by Election Day. Key voter groups have soured on him. He's defending unpopular policies. And he's made bad strategic decisions.
i disagree. his stragegy of working with the GOP rather than against them, and letting congress lead policy is ONE CONCEPTION, not many. it is a very poor conception, and he has paid for it repeatedly, but it is only ONE bad strategy decision, imo. Let's start with the economy. Unemployment is at 9.1%, with almost 14 million Americans out of work. Nearly half the jobless have been without work for more than six months. Mr. Obama promised much better, declaring that his February 2009 stimulus would cause unemployment to peak at 8% by the end of summer 2009 and drop to roughly 6.8% today.
no disagreement here, but he can always say that he didn't get the stimulus he wanted, therefore the economy wasn't stimulated as much as he wanted. people might not believe that, but it is a fact. After boasting in June 2010 that "Our economy . . . is now growing at a good clip," he laughingly admitted last week, "Shovel-ready was not as shovel-ready as we expected." The humor will be lost on most. In Wednesday's Bloomberg poll, Americans believe they are worse off than when Mr. Obama took office by a 44% to 34% margin.
this is a serious problem for him. he has to get that number up 10%, or he is going to have a very hard time. The last president re-elected with unemployment over 7.2% was FDR in 1936. Ronald Reagan overcame 7.2% unemployment because the rate was dropping dramatically (it had been over 10%) as the economy grew very rapidly in 1983 and 1984. Today, in contrast, the Federal Reserve says growth will be less than 3% this year and less than 3.8% next year, with unemployment between 7.8% and 8.2% by Election Day.
Rove was well to mention FDR. it is that kind of campaign that Obama has to run. one that highlights the slow improvement of a crippled economy. Mr. Obama also has problems with his base. For example, Jewish voters are upset with his policy toward Israel, and left-wing bloggers at last week's NetRoots conference were angry over Mr. Obama's failure to deliver a leftist utopia. Weak Jewish support could significantly narrow Mr. Obama's margin in states like Florida, while a disappointed left could deprive him of the volunteers so critical to his success in 2008.
i think Rove is dead wrong here, and is likely to become wronger as the year progresses. the first indication will be August in Wisconsin. Mr. Obama's standing has declined among other, larger groups. Gallup reported his job approval rating Tuesday at 45%, down from 67% at his inaugural. Among the groups showing a larger-than-average decline since 2009 are whites (down 25 points); older voters (down 24); independents and college graduates (both down 23), those with a high-school education or less, men, and Southerners (all down 22); women (down 21 points); married couples and those making $2,000-$4,000 a month (down 20). This all points to severe trouble in suburbs and midsized cities in states likes Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
cherry picking the data. Obama is +8% off his low last summer. another 8% by election day and he will have no problems getting re-elected. Karl Rove is a former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush. He is a Fox News contributor and author of "Courage and Consequence" (Threshold Editions, 2010). To continue reading his column in The Wall Street Journal, click here.
Rove is strictly partisan. he makes some good points here, but he also is clearly a creature of his background.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2011 20:17:22 GMT -5
Likely?? Good thread, PI, but I prefer he is out of here in 2012 rather than likely out of here. He's so bad I am actually surprised the Dems are not running someone against him.
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hello fromWarsaw
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Post by hello fromWarsaw on Jun 25, 2011 20:23:56 GMT -5
OP: wishful thinking horse patoot His approval hasn't changed in a year, and his personal approval is in the upper 50's...FOX NOISE!
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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 25, 2011 20:28:17 GMT -5
Rove is indeed deeply partisan but you have to admit he is not dense, stupid, or have a lot of lies or misinformation with his political views.. The White House would nail Rove to a cross if he printed false or misleading information about Obama since FOX is on their "hit" list from what I understand..
They will ask Rachel Maddow to go after Rove now and if she strikes out then Dennis O'Donnell will try to denigrate Rove again and the games go on and on as you know??
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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 25, 2011 20:37:50 GMT -5
Hey Mr HFW....
Are you aware of all the newspapers editorials calling for Obama to intervene in the negotiations for debt reduction because the Dems and Repubs cannot work with Joe Biden?? Even liberal newspapers on the West Coast and East Coast are crying out for Obama to do something next week to raise the debt limits or else the stock and bond markets could go into free fall....check it out..
I read the editorials in the San Jose Mercury, San Francisco Chronicle, Wall St Journal, USA Today and New York Times today at Starbucks and they all said essentially the same thing "Obama you need to do something or be lambasted by the Liberal Media"...
I think he finally got the message so let's see what he does next week
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Post by deziloooooo on Jun 25, 2011 20:40:08 GMT -5
Economy and Jobs...that will be the biggie, IMHO....also who his competition will be and how the electorate feel the pubs and the Tea party are doing now in congress...
To listen to the same vocals ones here , there are about six or so..same old, same old , one gets the feeling he is toast..however..glad to say, after a while, the vitriol doesn't even register, as the same BS is spouted as if by rote...no thought as to what is being said , and then when they jump all over the alleged dissing of the queen by a toast, the limo which gets stuck in a drive way, a vegetable garden planted on the white house grounds, a golf game played weekly, not sure if he gets 18 holes in or nine, stories of 60 % of our navy being sent to Indian waters as a personal escort,[Not true}, his cuffs are to long or was it to short..never got which one that complaint was about, also a problem as to who he sat next to, then visiting Arlington, nope not visiting Arlington, then oops, yep he did visit Arlington but his "hand salute " was not up to snuff..or was it, and did he hold it long enough or just go up and down, lordy can't we get a drill Sgt to give him lessons, and if they did , then I am sure objections about the expense of moving the DI from say Paris Island, or another basic training facility and wasting the D.I.'s valuable time...[sigh}
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2011 21:01:27 GMT -5
Just as liberals HATED President Bush, President Obama is HATED by the right. I think that those in the left & right are close to equal in number. So it comes down to those are aren't under the sway of either party as far as popular vote. Actually electing the president with electoral votes is another matter. There was a huge backlash against Republicans the last presidential election because of the dislike of President Bush. My prediction is that there will another huge backlash against President Obama this time. Had President Obama done a really good job this term I think we would have had a Democrat in the white house for another 2 & maybe 3 presidential elections.
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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 25, 2011 21:03:22 GMT -5
Hey djlungrot.
Good stuff in reply #2...you made a lot of good points refuting Karl Rove..but don't forget Rove has some good contacts in congress that you and I don't ...so let's revisit this discussion when we get more data from the meeting next week with Obama, Reid and McConnell Re: Debt Limit...that could be a game changer if nothing happens which is a big concern in the financial communities as you probably know...
Does you moniker indicate you are still a heavy smoker...lungrot?? it reminds me of the pictures on cigarette packs..
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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 25, 2011 21:05:33 GMT -5
Just as liberals HATED President Bush, President Obama is HATED by the right. [/b][/i][/u]
Hate might be a strong term but don't forget his biggest critics re: Libya last week were the Liberal Elites led by Dennis Kucinich...you cannot get more liberal than Dennis the Menace...And Harry Reid had been asking for Obama to Biden from the debt reduction meetings and for him to chair them.. But I guess to call Reid a Liberal would give Liberals a bad name IMHO
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Post by deziloooooo on Jun 25, 2011 21:13:57 GMT -5
From what I have been reading , the idea of Biden meeting with pubs was to get a consensus as to what they could come up with...agree on, live with, what ever one wants to call it.
After that was done, then the final negotiations would get under way.
I believe the POTUS concern is not that there will be areas of entitlements visited and dealt with, but that they are not so drastic initially that it makes things worse then they are in the short run..something that really is on his plate, not the others..he's the POTUS , it is all on his shoulders, his responsibility..
Economy and recovery is still very fragile..it depends on what he other side wants..mostly concerned with the 2012 election, ready to make it so bad that they take the chance the populace will turn on the POTUS and put all the blame there, OR..there is also the chance , as has been done before..it goes on the other side as being uncooperative ONLY interested in the upcoming election, not making it easier on the folks back home, being just another obstacle in the way and again just because of the political out come..and as one said, suggested, if both sides are about even here, then the independents, those on the fence will be the deciding ones on this election..IMHO of course.
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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 25, 2011 21:15:58 GMT -5
My prediction is that there will another huge backlash against President Obama this time. Had President Obama done a really good job this term I think we would have had a Democrat in the white house for another 2 & maybe 3 presidential elections
The RNC just announced on CBS Radio News that they have megabucks ready to be spent for Political Attacks Ads aimed at Obama..so he is going to be pilloried on TV and Radio in the next few days...
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Post by marshabar1 on Jun 25, 2011 22:11:09 GMT -5
Well gee, let's see. . . Right and left and center and military all dissatisfied with politically motivated choices concerning Afghanistan draw down. Pelosi coming into a negotiation Obama is seen as INCAPABLE of handling. Oh yeah, he's doing REAL well. ;D
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Post by marshabar1 on Jun 25, 2011 22:12:01 GMT -5
Great thread P.I. Great followup.
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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 25, 2011 22:22:10 GMT -5
“This election is going to be about the economy and the president’s record on it — or lack thereof,” RNC Communications Director Sean Spicer said in an interview.
JoshuaMiller@rollcall.com | @jm_dc
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Post by Bluerobin on Jun 26, 2011 6:05:47 GMT -5
The pubs will still have to find a viable candidate to defeat him. So far they have failed to do so.
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Post by Bluerobin on Jun 26, 2011 6:26:43 GMT -5
Snerdley, I am all in favor of a viable third party. Last one we had was the Perotistas back in 1992. Too bad their leader didn't really want the job.
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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 26, 2011 9:12:03 GMT -5
The RNC strategy is becoming clear to me since they don't have a strong candidate to challenge Obama in 2012 they will spend millions to attack his vulnerabilities, and he is definitely vulnerable for his domestic and foreign policies..
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Politically_Incorrect12
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Post by Politically_Incorrect12 on Jun 26, 2011 9:26:38 GMT -5
The RNC strategy is becoming clear to me since they don't have a strong candidate to challenge Obama in 2012 they will spend millions to attack his vulnerabilities, and he is definitely vulnerable for his domestic and foreign policies.. All they really have to do is show former President Bush and some of his agendas, and then show President Obama and some of those same agendas...and then for a good finish, show some of Obama's campaign ads attacking McCain as a third Bush term.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2011 9:28:04 GMT -5
Oh i disagree Snerd. There are definately people who are unelectable... and PI, they RNC can run attack ads all they want... Bauchmann still won't win...
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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 26, 2011 9:28:38 GMT -5
The RNC negative campaign ads are due to hit the airways in the next few weeks so stay tuned...you can bet they will be controversial and only led to more divisiveness in this country which we don't need.
But if Obama had performed well for the past 2 & 1/2 years there would be no need for negative ads by the RNC but instead would be all about Obama's policies..
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2011 11:33:42 GMT -5
and military all dissatisfied
Just my opinion but I don't think the military vote counts at all. There just aren't enough military (both active duty & retired) in any one place to have their votes count. If "any" politician were to seek the military vote (to me) it would mean that they were desperate.
The pubs will still have to find a viable candidate to defeat him. So far they have failed to do so.
I don't think that's true. I don't think President Obama was elected because of his platform or what he stood for. He was elected because to many people hated President Bush & what he stood for. I doubt that George Washington would have been elected if he had run on the Republican ticket against Obama. I think that the reverse will be true this next election. People will vote for anybody rather than President Obama. I know that's the way that I feel & so does the majority of people that I know (I do live in a republican state though).
Long ago in a thread I stated that I would vote for Carrot top rather than President Obama. That wasn't a joke, but rather a true statement. I would still vote for him rather than President Obama (or anybody else that ran against him. I would probably vote for Charles Manson (who's a killer & a nut for those that are to young to know) rather than President Obama. People would be in more danger but I think that the country would be in a lot less danger.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 26, 2011 12:54:58 GMT -5
Rove is indeed deeply partisan but you have to admit he is not dense, stupid, or have a lot of lies or misinformation with his political views.. The White House would nail Rove to a cross if he printed false or misleading information about Obama since FOX is on their "hit" list from what I understand.. They will ask Rachel Maddow to go after Rove now and if she strikes out then Dennis O'Donnell will try to denigrate Rove again and the games go on and on as you know?? did my reply seem disrespectful, PI? i just call it like i see it. he is right about half the time, and cherry picking data the rest. i don't mind actually. it does not inform OR affect my opinion to read this stuff. i just worry about the impact it has on those that don't exercise their heads. those that believe in Obama as some sort of liberal saviour will just ignore it. and the GOP faithful will have unmerited happy moments. the reality is that Obama is going to be hard to beat for a number of reasons, not the least of which is a lack of viable opponent. and this is coming from a Republican.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 26, 2011 12:57:43 GMT -5
Hey djlungrot. Good stuff in reply #2...you made a lot of good points refuting Karl Rove..but don't forget Rove has some good contacts in congress that you and I don't ...so let's revisit this discussion when we get more data from the meeting next week with Obama, Reid and McConnell Re: Debt Limit...that could be a game changer if nothing happens which is a big concern in the financial communities as you probably know... Does you moniker indicate you are still a heavy smoker...lungrot?? it reminds me of the pictures on cigarette packs.. i was thinking of stupid names for DJ's. i thought this one would be funny and sick. i used to smoke, but quit in 1991.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 26, 2011 12:59:39 GMT -5
Well gee, let's see. . . Right and left and center and military all dissatisfied with politically motivated choices concerning Afghanistan draw down. Pelosi coming into a negotiation Obama is seen as INCAPABLE of handling. Oh yeah, he's doing REAL well. ;D i would rather that everyone political dislike Obama than love him. that would concern me far more.
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Post by privateinvestor on Jun 26, 2011 13:01:10 GMT -5
the reality is that Obama is going to be hard to beat for a number of reasons, not the least of which is a lack of viable opponent. and this is coming from a Republican.
Yes but he may not be so tough to beat should the economy tank and unemployment remain where it has been for the past year..
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 26, 2011 13:01:31 GMT -5
Snerdley, I am all in favor of a viable third party. Last one we had was the Perotistas back in 1992. Too bad their leader didn't really want the job. that would be a wonderous and transformign event for US politics. it would shake up every race, if a viable third party could be formed. preferably one that was not in the lap of monied interests. a true populist party.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 26, 2011 13:03:33 GMT -5
and military all dissatisfied Just my opinion but I don't think the military vote counts at all. There just aren't enough military (both active duty & retired) in any one place to have their votes count. If "any" politician were to seek the military vote (to me) it would mean that they were desperate. The pubs will still have to find a viable candidate to defeat him. So far they have failed to do so. I don't think that's true. I don't think President Obama was elected because of his platform or what he stood for. He was elected because to many people hated President Bush & what he stood for. I doubt that George Washington would have been elected if he had run on the Republican ticket against Obama. I think that the reverse will be true this next election. People will vote for anybody rather than President Obama. I know that's the way that I feel & so does the majority of people that I know (I do live in a republican state though). Long ago in a thread I stated that I would vote for Carrot top rather than President Obama. That wasn't a joke, but rather a true statement. I would still vote for him rather than President Obama (or anybody else that ran against him. I would probably vote for Charles Manson (who's a killer & a nut for those that are to young to know) rather than President Obama. People would be in more danger but I think that the country would be in a lot less danger. tex- i felt the same way about Bush. but when the time came, i could not stomach a vote for Kerry. so i voted third party. i did the same thing in 2008. and i will probably do it again in 2012.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 26, 2011 13:05:16 GMT -5
the reality is that Obama is going to be hard to beat for a number of reasons, not the least of which is a lack of viable opponent. and this is coming from a Republican. Yes but he may not be so tough to beat should the economy tank and unemployment remain where it has been for the past year.. point already conceded. but i can tell you right now, that if Bachmann were the candidate, i would have strong inclinations for voting for him, no matter what the economic conditions.
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