Are we headed to WW3?

[laterbloomer]

I was chatting with a friend yesterday and they think WW3 is likely. Their logic is "I'm just guessing. But Europe is arming itself now for some reason. Yemen is saying it will block to other shipping lanes besides the Red Sea/ suez. China wants Taiwan back. Taiwan makes our computer chips and Chinese can't do that bc they don't have the knowledge even if they have the factories. Israel is committing genocide now and has nukes. China has a demographic nightmare happening no matter what and will decline. Everything is a mess and a weak president or a president that wants war is just a recipe for disaster"
What do you think?

[Tennesseer]

So what was your friend's solution to avoiding WW3-electing donald trump?

[busymom]

Do they think Trump isn't having cognitive issues?      I'd be more worried about Trump "pushing the button" than I ever would Biden.  


I agree that there is a LOT of crazy in the world right now.  If another big war starts, it won't be Biden who starts it.  If I was a betting person, it'll either be Putin, China, or some terrorist organization.  JMHO.  

[laterbloomer]

Jan 23, 2024 16:13:11 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

So what was your friend's solution to avoiding WW3-electing donald trump?

That is really not what I am asking about. If we really are heading to WW3 for these reasons I don't think Trump will avoid it.

[laterbloomer]

Jan 23, 2024 16:31:48 GMT -5 busymom said:

Do they think Trump isn't having cognitive issues?      I'd be more worried about Trump "pushing the button" than I ever would Biden.  


I agree that there is a LOT of crazy in the world right now.  If another big war starts, it won't be Biden who starts it.  If I was a betting person, it'll either be Putin, China, or some terrorist organization.  JMHO.  

I should have left the last line off. Do you think things are headed to a World War?

[laterbloomer]

I edited the post to take Presidential candidates out of it.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 23, 2024 15:11:51 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

I was chatting with a friend yesterday and they think WW3 is likely. Their logic is "I'm just guessing. But Europe is arming itself now for some reason. Yemen is saying it will block to other shipping lanes besides the Red Sea/ suez. China wants Taiwan back. Taiwan makes our computer chips and Chinese can't do that bc they don't have the knowledge even if they have the factories. Israel is committing genocide now and has nukes. China has a demographic nightmare happening no matter what and will decline. Everything is a mess and a weak president or a president that wants war is just a recipe for disaster"
What do you think?

fervently disagree, for everyone other than Trump.  here is why:

a president is not unitary in his command or authority.
a wise president (and i think Biden is such a president) surrounds himself with
people that are capable of assuming command, in accordance with
our laws and protocol, at a moment's notice.

i think the people have the WRONG impression that a president can act alone or even worse SHOULD do so.  those people don't really have any respect for government, particularly ours, and should have no say in government, particularly ours.  but i digress:

ONLY a president who thinks OTHERWISE should be kept out of office.
ergo, Biden is INFINITELY better as a bulwark against this debate than Trump.

[happyhoix]

I agree with DJ. Pretty much any ‘regular’ politician like Biden or Haley would work hard to avoid WW3. Look at how hard Biden has been funneling money and arms to Ukraine to keep Russia from over running them and potentially moving onto other free states, once Ukraine is gone. That doesn’t mean WW3 won’t start, but it means they would be sending diplomats globally to try to hold everything together right up until the end.

If Trump gets elected again, though, he’s already said he won’t do a thing for the Ukraine or Taiwan or for anyone in Europe, for that matter. Our allies know this, and know they’ll be on their own when things go sideways. Our enemies know this as well, and know this is their chance to act, while the US is sitting on the sidelines.

[Tennesseer]

trump would probably destroy NATO.  minimally pulling the U.S. out of it.

NATO Braces for Donald Trump Returning 'With a Vengeance'

NATO leaders are war gaming a potential second term for former President Donald Trump, with a former senior member of the organization telling Newsweek that many in its upper echelons fear he could be back "with a vengeance."

The runaway leader for the Republican nomination is barreling toward the November presidential election showing no sign of easing his criticism of the 74-year-old alliance, and its European members in particular.

"Look, NATO has taken advantage of our country," Trump said last week. "The European countries took advantage." Asked about his commitment to defending NATO nations while in office, Trump replied: "Depends if they treat us properly."

Some NATO officials publicly welcomed such criticism when Trump was in office, crediting the president with pushing national leaders—several of whom chafed at White House coercion—closer to agreed defense spending targets. But the majority of alliance members have still not reached the 2 percent of GDP military spending target set in 2014.

The latest remarks could be considered ominous given Trump's past assertions that NATO is "obsolete," and his reported threats to pull the U.S. out of the alliance unless other members rapidly expanded their military expenditure.

Such criticism came before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine revitalized the trans-Atlantic bloc. But many in the NATO establishment fear President Vladimir Putin's historic gamble has not necessarily swung Trump behind the trans-Atlantic cause, not least because of the former's president's repeated calls for Ukraine to make concessions to Russia.

Rest of article here:  NATO Braces for Donald Trump Returning 'With a Vengeance'

[Opti]

Jan 23, 2024 15:11:51 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

I was chatting with a friend yesterday and they think WW3 is likely. Their logic is "I'm just guessing. But Europe is arming itself now for some reason. Yemen is saying it will block to other shipping lanes besides the Red Sea/ suez. China wants Taiwan back. Taiwan makes our computer chips and Chinese can't do that bc they don't have the knowledge even if they have the factories. Israel is committing genocide now and has nukes. China has a demographic nightmare happening no matter what and will decline. Everything is a mess and a weak president or a president that wants war is just a recipe for disaster"
What do you think?

No I don't think WW3 is likely as you did not even mention the most likely place for the war theatre.

If one pays attention there are always wars somewhere on the globe. Israel/Palestine which are next to each other have been fighting for thousands of years. I don't see more countries being willing to be drawn in the morass. Yemen is a tricky wicket and I have not really investigated that yet. 

China is always having issues with parts of itself and parts it has let go of kinda sorta. Nothing new about that at all. I missed where the US or a US president fights into all of the above. Now for reality, the below is old but China built a huge computer chip factory around the beginning of the pandemic. If anything they are likely more dominant than they were in building computer chips for countries around the globe.


www.opportimes.com/top-10-semiconductor-chip-producers-in-the-world/


China leads the production of semiconductor chips in the world, according to data from the United Nations.

Other outstanding producers are: South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, the United States, Japan, Germany, the Philippines, the Netherlands, and Thailand.

[Opti]

Jan 23, 2024 17:22:55 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

trump would probably destroy NATO.  minimally pulling the U.S. out of it.

NATO Braces for Donald Trump Returning 'With a Vengeance'

NATO leaders are war gaming a potential second term for former President Donald Trump, with a former senior member of the organization telling Newsweek that many in its upper echelons fear he could be back "with a vengeance."

The runaway leader for the Republican nomination is barreling toward the November presidential election showing no sign of easing his criticism of the 74-year-old alliance, and its European members in particular.

"Look, NATO has taken advantage of our country," Trump said last week. "The European countries took advantage." Asked about his commitment to defending NATO nations while in office, Trump replied: "Depends if they treat us properly."

Some NATO officials publicly welcomed such criticism when Trump was in office, crediting the president with pushing national leaders—several of whom chafed at White House coercion—closer to agreed defense spending targets. But the majority of alliance members have still not reached the 2 percent of GDP military spending target set in 2014.

The latest remarks could be considered ominous given Trump's past assertions that NATO is "obsolete," and his reported threats to pull the U.S. out of the alliance unless other members rapidly expanded their military expenditure.

Such criticism came before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine revitalized the trans-Atlantic bloc. But many in the NATO establishment fear President Vladimir Putin's historic gamble has not necessarily swung Trump behind the trans-Atlantic cause, not least because of the former's president's repeated calls for Ukraine to make concessions to Russia.

Rest of article here:  NATO Braces for Donald Trump Returning 'With a Vengeance'

Trump is a Russian asset. He already proved from day one in the WH he would put Russia's interests above the US. I don't understand why anyone is debating this or waiting for him to wake up. He won't. He's been on this track since before the Oprah interview. 

[Spellbound454]

We have been attacking Houti rebel bases in Yemen ... because they have been pirating and bombing our ships in the Red Sea 
They say it is support of the Palestinians..... but its got nothing to do with that.
They are just another Iranian proxy being encouraged and supported to cause trouble for the West.
and it could cause a global monetary crisis.

US has been attacked today in Jordan..... by another bunch of Islamist nutters.


We are having land based nukes here from the US.... and the rest of Europe are gearing up for a threat from Russia... giving their land grab in Ukraine.

As for Israel causing a genocide...... The Hamas chant "from the river to the sea" is a call to get rid of all the Israelis there, blast them off the face of the Earth
So if there is any genocide going on.... its from Hamas.


Things have changed..... and there is a hornets nest brewing.

[Opti]

Jan 28, 2024 13:10:19 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

We have been attacking Houti rebel bases in Yemen ... because they have been pirating and bombing our ships in the Red Sea 
They say it is support of the Palestinians..... but its got nothing to do with that.
They are just another Iranian proxy being encouraged and supported to cause trouble for the West.
and it could cause a global monetary crisis.

US has been attacked today in Jordan..... by another bunch of Islamist nutters.


We are having land based nukes here from the US.... and the rest of Europe are gearing up for a threat from Russia... giving their land grab in Ukraine.

As for Israel causing a genocide...... The Hamas chant "from the river to the sea" is a call to get rid of all the Israelis there, blast them off the face of the Earth
So if there is any genocide going on.... its from Hamas.


Things have changed..... and there is a hornets nest brewing.

I agree certain countries are trying to cause trouble for the West, but why would that cause a monetary crisis?

Personally I think there are leaders in Israel and Hamas that are genocidal maniacs. There needs to be an agreement for a Palestine state. And I think Trump escalated tensions in the area by making Jerusalem Israel's for the most part. That city is holy to multiple religions, it is wrong to have any one country own it IMO.

[billisonboard]

Jan 28, 2024 13:44:17 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jan 28, 2024 13:10:19 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

We have been attacking Houti rebel bases in Yemen ... because they have been pirating and bombing our ships in the Red Sea 
They say it is support of the Palestinians..... but its got nothing to do with that.
They are just another Iranian proxy being encouraged and supported to cause trouble for the West.
and it could cause a global monetary crisis.

US has been attacked today in Jordan..... by another bunch of Islamist nutters.


We are having land based nukes here from the US.... and the rest of Europe are gearing up for a threat from Russia... giving their land grab in Ukraine.

As for Israel causing a genocide...... The Hamas chant "from the river to the sea" is a call to get rid of all the Israelis there, blast them off the face of the Earth
So if there is any genocide going on.... its from Hamas.


Things have changed..... and there is a hornets nest brewing.

I agree certain countries are trying to cause trouble for the West, but why would that cause a monetary crisis?

Personally I think there are leaders in Israel and Hamas that are genocidal maniacs. There needs to be an agreement for a Palestine state. And I think Trump escalated tensions in the area by making Jerusalem Israel's for the most part. That city is holy to multiple religions, it is wrong to have any one country own it IMO.

The Houthi attacks negatively impact trade routes creating a financial effect.

[Opti]

Jan 28, 2024 13:58:32 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Jan 28, 2024 13:44:17 GMT -5 Opti said:

I agree certain countries are trying to cause trouble for the West, but why would that cause a monetary crisis?

Personally I think there are leaders in Israel and Hamas that are genocidal maniacs. There needs to be an agreement for a Palestine state. And I think Trump escalated tensions in the area by making Jerusalem Israel's for the most part. That city is holy to multiple religions, it is wrong to have any one country own it IMO.

The Houthi attacks negatively impact trade routes creating a financial effect.

Of course, an attack or restriction of trade routes usually causes financial and other issues. It is rare though that they would cause a monetary crisis. For me a monetary crisis is when a currency experiences extreme devaluation quickly. Or in sci fi scenarios gets blown to bits on a wild ride like Game Stop stock.

[billisonboard]

Jan 28, 2024 14:26:52 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jan 28, 2024 13:58:32 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

The Houthi attacks negatively impact trade routes creating a financial effect.

Of course, an attack or restriction of trade routes usually causes financial and other issues. It is rare though that they would cause a monetary crisis. For me a monetary crisis is when a currency experiences extreme devaluation quickly. Or in sci fi scenarios gets blown to bits on a wild ride like Game Stop stock.

Got it. A question of appropriate terminology.

[Spellbound454]

Jan 28, 2024 14:26:52 GMT -5 Opti said:

Jan 28, 2024 13:58:32 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

The Houthi attacks negatively impact trade routes creating a financial effect.

Of course, an attack or restriction of trade routes usually causes financial and other issues. It is rare though that they would cause a monetary crisis. For me a monetary crisis is when a currency experiences extreme devaluation quickly. Or in sci fi scenarios gets blown to bits on a wild ride like Game Stop stock.

The shipping has to go down and round the cape of Africa (Instead of up the red sea and through the Suez canal....... It adds 10 days and costs many millions extra.

[Spellbound454]

 There needs to be an agreement for a Palestine state.

An agreement?
Between who? Hamas are terrorists and they aren't going to agree to anything.
They don't want a ceasefire, they don't want a two state solution.
They want Israel of the face of the earth.

I don't know what the answer is tbh.......... Lots of people are calling for a ceasefire.

but that's not going to happen.

It would mean unilaterally from Israel, letting Hamas win..... and still getting bombed everyday.

140 are still being held hostage, and nothings going to stop it happening next year and the next.


Sometimes there just isn't an answer.

[billisonboard]

I have a simple solution. Set a clear deadline. If the Gods involved don't deliver a solution by then, we mere mortals need to reject them all and start new religions with smarter, more reasonable Gods. 

[djAdvocate]

Jan 28, 2024 13:10:19 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

We have been attacking Houti rebel bases in Yemen ... because they have been pirating and bombing our ships in the Red Sea 
They say it is support of the Palestinians..... but its got nothing to do with that.
They are just another Iranian proxy being encouraged and supported to cause trouble for the West.
and it could cause a global monetary crisis.

US has been attacked today in Jordan..... by another bunch of Islamist nutters.


We are having land based nukes here from the US.... and the rest of Europe are gearing up for a threat from Russia... giving their land grab in Ukraine.

As for Israel causing a genocide...... The Hamas chant "from the river to the sea" is a call to get rid of all the Israelis there, blast them off the face of the Earth
So if there is any genocide going on.... its from Hamas.


Things have changed..... and there is a hornets nest brewing.

forgive me for saying so, but "so what"?

i mean sure, it deligitimizes them.  just like it deligitimzes Roger Stone when he said that we should kill Eric Swalwell.  

what is more likely, Spell?  Hamas wiping Israel off the face of the Earth, or the opposite?

we should really worry about those that have the MEANS to carry out these threats.  i am not at all sure that is the case, here.  and i think "feeding into that" is a tragic error on the part of ANY observer.

until Israel recognizes SOME SORT of legitimate representative for Palestine, i am not convinced that the case you are making is anything other than cover for Israeli atrocities.  and i am not saying that to disparage Israel.  i am saying it because i believe that is what we are seeing.

[billisonboard]

what is more likely, Spell?  Hamas wiping Israel off the face of the Earth, or the opposite?

Not that either will be wiped out but, FWIW, it is easier to eliminate an entity with specific physical existence than an entity without such specificity.

[djAdvocate]

Jan 28, 2024 15:09:34 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Jan 28, 2024 14:26:52 GMT -5 Opti said:

Of course, an attack or restriction of trade routes usually causes financial and other issues. It is rare though that they would cause a monetary crisis. For me a monetary crisis is when a currency experiences extreme devaluation quickly. Or in sci fi scenarios gets blown to bits on a wild ride like Game Stop stock.

The shipping has to go down and round the cape of Africa (Instead of up the red sea and through the Suez canal....... It adds 10 days and costs many millions extra.

not to minimize what you are saying, but the capacity of a cargo ship is about 720000 tons.  that means that "millions of dollars" might conceivably end up equating to 3 dollars per ton.  and yes, that is something.  the average person consumes about a ton of food a year.  that means that they would have to skip that double espresso once a year.  which, i will be the first to admit, is a crisis that must be addressed.  

[djAdvocate]

(i think the bigger issues is time extra time. an increase in transportation time of 10 days equates to roughly 25% from the far East to Europe. that mean that on paper, it cuts transportation capacity by about 25% along that corridor, which is significant. that will create backlogs on the end of the transporter. but i would also add that the overland route is quicker- though far more expensive. in other words, this argument continually boils down to cost, which is shaving nickles, imo. it is often blown wildly out of proportion because people don't understand what it really means in terms of time and money)

[billisonboard]

Jan 28, 2024 17:03:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jan 28, 2024 15:09:34 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

The shipping has to go down and round the cape of Africa (Instead of up the red sea and through the Suez canal....... It adds 10 days and costs many millions extra.

not to minimize what you are saying, but the capacity of a cargo ship is about 720000 tons.  that means that "millions of dollars" might conceivably end up equating to 3 dollars per ton.  and yes, that is something.  the average person consumes about a ton of food a year.  that means that they would have to skip that double espresso once a year.  which, i will be the first to admit, is a crisis that must be addressed.  

Hopefully readers will look for more information on this situation.

[Spellbound454]

Jan 28, 2024 17:07:46 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

(i think the bigger issues is time extra time. an increase in transportation time of 10 days equates to roughly 25% from the far East to Europe. that mean that on paper, it cuts transportation capacity by about 25% along that corridor, which is significant. that will create backlogs on the end of the transporter. but i would also add that the overland route is quicker- though far more expensive. in other words, this argument continually boils down to cost, which is shaving nickles, imo. it is often blown wildly out of proportion because people don't understand what it really means in terms of time and money)

Many businesses operate a "just in time" system where the materials immediately prior to productions.
That's not going to work if you cant get hold of the parts.
Transported food will potentially spoil and the price of goods will increase to cover the cost of extra distance.
Lots of freight will end up being flown at an increased price.

The Sahara desert is a barrier so overland is not an option...... (plus all numbers of bandits)... even if you got permission from Egypt which seems unlikely.

Thats going to be time and money.


The oil producing countries are not happy that their tankers can't get through, Egypt is losing revenue from the Suez canal

These Houthis are not the government of Yemen, they are just local criminals. Who the heck do they think they are?

[djAdvocate]

Jan 28, 2024 17:51:10 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

Jan 28, 2024 17:07:46 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

(i think the bigger issues is time extra time. an increase in transportation time of 10 days equates to roughly 25% from the far East to Europe. that mean that on paper, it cuts transportation capacity by about 25% along that corridor, which is significant. that will create backlogs on the end of the transporter. but i would also add that the overland route is quicker- though far more expensive. in other words, this argument continually boils down to cost, which is shaving nickles, imo. it is often blown wildly out of proportion because people don't understand what it really means in terms of time and money)

Many businesses operate a "just in time" system where the materials immediately prior to productions.
That's not going to work if you cant get hold of the parts.
Transported food will potentially spoil and the price of goods will increase to cover the cost of extra distance.
Lots of freight will end up being flown at an increased price.

The Sahara desert is a barrier so overland is not an option...... (plus all numbers of bandits)... even if you got permission from Egypt which seems unlikely.

Thats going to be time and money.


The oil producing countries are not happy that their tankers can't get through, Egypt is losing revenue from the Suez canal

These Houthis are not the government of Yemen, they are just local criminals. Who the heck do they think they are?

i think you misunderstood me.  i meant ground transportation (train, truck) FROM CHINA.  not some silly docking and offloading idea.  that is absurd.

and, not to be a dick or anything, but i really hate JIT.  it is a bad way to run a business.  so if that is what "businesses are doing" they need to stop doing that.  period.  i mean it.  it is a bad idea.  really really bad.  it makes businesses very vulnerable to dozens of variables.  terrible idea/concept.

[Spellbound454]

  Hamas wiping Israel off the face of the Earth, or the opposite?

Israel have made no secret that they want rid of Hamas.
There has even been mass demonstrations in Gaza from the population who want rid of Hamas.

If they weren't there, people could actually use their schools and hospitals without them being a target because there are combatants underneath.

If, how and why that's going to happen is anyone's guess.

but right now....... I just cant see an end to this

[djAdvocate]

and i was not talking about Yemen and the Houthi. i was talking about Palestine and Hamas, to answer your last question.

[djAdvocate]

again, to be clear. trucking and rail is quicker from China than via ocean. in fact in most places it is. if the issue is time/spoilage, there is an elegant solution. it is just MORE COSTLY.

so really, this comes down to cost. the capacity is there in transportation.

[Spellbound454]

terrible idea/concept

Thats what they do.

Couldn't tell you why, saves on storage I suppose..... and wages, they bring in operatives to cover a large order.

but not being an industrialist I wouldn't really know.

I had to wait 2 weeks for a part for my French car...... and France is across the channel, all of 27 miles.