Roll call unretired! What is your timeline? Contingencies??

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Sept 16, 2023 13:42:45 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

I'll run different scenarios with different rates just to see what it "could" be, but as tractor said, it's just guessing.  I'm thinking of retiring in about 5 years and it could just as easily be negative or flat the next 5 years as positive.  If it IS negative, I'll probably not be retiring in 5 years.

So I just noticed this goose egg MPL laid! What? Where is the hope? the optimism?

We YMers getting to be an old crowd here....what is your timeline and what is your contingency IFF MPLs prediction on the 5 year market being a flatliner comes to be? Will you just keeeeeeeeeeeeep working for the man? He's a dirty old bastard! Can't you figure out a way out of there?

If you have a plan...what is it??

I've had one foot out the door since the market/my portfolio peaked before the fall. I just need to get back to that ATH plus maybe 10%......To think it might not happen even in 5 years is.....disturbing!!!  It's already been about 2 years.....so 7 and no recovery? No  new ATH? 

Is anyone planning a road out....that doesn't entail "just keep working"? Wondering what it may be?

Unfortunately - the worse the market is, the more valuable waiting till 70 to take social security is....and having a bridge fund until 70 that is all cash/low risk - or mostly so! - is also, contrarily, risky to have so much money out of the market and potential recovery.......

I also need to work on lowering the monthly budget....while also still have that long list of house repairs/upgrades I need to get to before retiring....so spending a lot of money and/or taking on debt.....

It always seems a catch 22!

I think having 5 years of cash/low risk money is the outside of what I would do.....but that would have me working for 6 more years if no significant market recovery/new bull run. This would have me retiring at 65, with 5 years of cash til 70/social security....

[minnesotapaintlady]

Hey!  I wasn't predicting a flat stock market.  I just pointed out that it's just as likely as it going up...nobody really knows.   But if it does plummet 30% instead of going up, yeah...probably not going to retire early.  I'm 90% stocks, so that would be a big hit and I don't have a lot of wiggle.   If it is just FLAT the next 5 years I'm probably ok.  I've technically reached FI already, so even if I don't contribute another dime the next 5 years I'd be able to draw enough to pay my expenses, but I'd have to draw SS at 62 to make it work so it's not the preferred plan.

So, I just keep trudging along and hoping for the best. I do think (unless it's REALLY bad) that I can probably get a little demanding in 5 years. Tell them I'm working 30 hours a week and ask for one or two days be work from home...stuff like that.  We get full benefits at 30 hours, so I could keep insurance and bonuses and 401K match.  I could also just get any job that maybe doesn't pay much. Walk dogs, stock shelves, go back to the production floor...just taking home a few hundred a week for awhile instead of straight up retiring entirely could make a huge difference.

[laterbloomer]

Has the stock market ever not recovered and grown over a 7 year span?
ETA - other than 1929

[laterbloomer]

To answer your questions;
7 year timeline (I'll be 65)
My house is my contingency plan. I can rent out 3 rooms. I always did have a Golden Girls kind of retirement planned. The way rents are around here I could easily have over $2000/mth income that way. That with my CPP, OAS and GIC (altogether about another $2000) would cover expenses and modest spending.
My mind doesn't allow for the market to be in the negative from today so my investments would allow for a few nice trips.

[resolution]

Sept 23, 2023 17:07:37 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Has the stock market ever not recovered and grown over a 7 year span?
ETA - other than 1929

2000 through 2010 was pretty rough. It worked out in the end for me because i kept buying, but it was pretty discouraging at the time.


www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

[busymom]

DH most likely won't retire until he's 70, and frankly the man is so stubborn that unless he has some unexpected medical issues, he'll probably work longer.


We need a thread on what happens with Medicare when you keep working, because I haven't a clue, and he'll be "of age" to sign up next year.  But then, if you keep working & get insurance through your employer, how does that work?     He works crazy long days.  Which means I'll end up being the one who has to do the research...

[resolution]

I have given notice to my supervisor that I plan to retire in January. I had agreed to stay on through the end of my current project, and it is on track to be completed toward the end of this year. My husband plans to keep working for at least another 8 years, so in theory our finances should be fine for at least that long. If the market doesn't go back up and inflation runs rampant, I have a few ideas.

One is that I might try to write a web serial novel. I have never pursued writing fiction because I do a lot of work related writing every day. Once I retire I might try my hand at writing some xianxia or litrpg and posting it up on Royal Road.  It is relatively common to monetize it on patreon, and then later to post the books on kindle unlimited. 

Another possibility would be to do some video editing on my husband's YouTube channel.  He has been taking cell phone videos of himself while he is working on the window project.  Right now its just cell phone videos that he puts up for his friends, but I bought some decent editing software that I use at work, so I could make them a bit fancier and then start publicizing them on different woodworking and renovating forums.

The last idea is that I just go back to work somewhere local, hopefully with a slower pace than my current job.

[pulmonarymd]

I just turned 63. My wife just turned 64.

My wife is trying to decide if she will resign/retire from her current job since it is a shit show. She needs to give them 90 days notice.

I think I have 4 years. Hopefully, 2 more at my current pace, and then hopefully cutting back to 4 days a week. That brings me to 67. I realistically need to give them a years notice so they can replace me.

Mortgage done by end of the year. I can also cancel my disability and supplement what we are putting into a high yield account to use to tide us over until my wife turns 70 to start social security. If necessary, we can take some out of the 401k to supplement. That can minimize taxes on our withdrawals and let our SS increase. I will also wait to 70 to collect.

If needed I can do some locus tenens work if I have too. But we should be in a “good enough” position if I go to 67. Looking for perfect can mean you never pull the trigger. The nightmare scenario happened to a fellow physician. Retired at 70. They were updating their beach house. His wife died less than a year after he retired.

The people on this board are head and shoulders better than their peers, most of whom have not planned at all. I think you will all do well regardless of what the markets do

[giramomma]

I have 8 more years until full retirement from my current job. I'll be 56. I can retire with like 90% of a pension at 55.

I'll need to downshift and likely work part time, as the missy will be just starting HS.

If the market is flat, I don't think it will change anything. I'll have about 4 years of paid health insurance premiums if I retire at 56. Our income might be lower, and we'll have three kids out of the house then, so it's all likely to even out. I suppose, we could pay off the mortgage if that was the one thing we needed to do to make retirement work.

I used to be all like "let's get all the projects done before I retire." That was of course, before I had the missy.

Now I'm more like eh. We'll deal as we need to.

I dunno. I still consider everything to be a crap shoot, even 8 years out.

DH is looking at full time work. I may completely retrain and end up working longer. Or I may quit entirely and just teach.

While we never planned on inheritances, we're also getting to the age where an inheritance is going to move the needle in our favor. I'd rather stop working early. With the missy, we're not going to be able to take incredible, fabulous vacations until our early 60s, if we are lucky. I'd rather not entirely p*ss away my 50s working and parenting, if I can help it.

We'll also see if my health holds. Prognosis I think should be good. And I'm still not even two years out yet from last day of treatment. So I'm not too eager to count all my chickens before they hatch.

I dunno. We'll just stay the course and do what we always do. It's served us well so far, in 20+ years of marriage and a very unpredictable life. I can't imagine that it will stop serving us well just because retirement is less than a decade away.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Sept 23, 2023 16:45:37 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

Hey!  I wasn't predicting a flat stock market.  I just pointed out that it's just as likely as it going up...nobody really knows.   But if it does plummet 30% instead of going up, yeah...probably not going to retire early.  I'm 90% stocks, so that would be a big hit and I don't have a lot of wiggle.   If it is just FLAT the next 5 years I'm probably ok.  I've technically reached FI already, so even if I don't contribute another dime the next 5 years I'd be able to draw enough to pay my expenses, but I'd have to draw SS at 62 to make it work so it's not the preferred plan.

Seems reasonable. Would there be any lifestyle tradeoffs for this? Or thinking you could potentially live even keel?

I've been torn between this on planning, as I menitoned, while taking at 62 certainly does protect a lot of the portfolio, the gains in soc sec payments between 62 and 70 are so generous, and permanent (alledgedly!), that it really does make it a tough thing to give up.

In your case, I think that ss money will pay a lot larger proportion of your expenses than in my case. At 62 years, my porjected ss benefit would pay about 23% of my expected expenses, whereas at 70 it would be over 40%.

We are both going the route of higher risk portfolios. And seems to pair better with high soc sec payments!

Of course the issue is you just never know which path will be best, you jusst have to take one!

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Sept 23, 2023 17:07:37 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Has the stock market ever not recovered and grown over a 7 year span?
ETA - other than 1929

One thing that freaked me out during the 2008 GFC was in looking at the stock market indices I realized that the market hadn't really gained much of anything over the 2000 high point, just kind of took 8 years to get back to it and then dropped even lower than it had in 2000 crash.

I think it took until 2013 to gain new ground.

These more recent, more volatile ups and downs may be more predictive of now than 1929, so it is a worrisome thought for those of us that would like to retire sooner rather than <excuse me!> later.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Sept 23, 2023 17:16:38 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

To answer your questions;
7 year timeline (I'll be 65)
My house is my contingency plan. I can rent out 3 rooms. I always did have a Golden Girls kind of retirement planned. The way rents are around here I could easily have over $2000/mth income that way. That with my CPP, OAS and GIC (altogether about another $2000) would cover expenses and modest spending.
My mind doesn't allow for the market to be in the negative from today so my investments would allow for a few nice trips.

LOL, if the market is in the tank for a prolonged period, maybe me and MPL can be the renters.....

earn extra income live streaming the golden girl antics

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Sept 23, 2023 17:31:35 GMT -5 busymom said:

DH most likely won't retire until he's 70, and frankly the man is so stubborn that unless he has some unexpected medical issues, he'll probably work longer.


We need a thread on what happens with Medicare when you keep working, because I haven't a clue, and he'll be "of age" to sign up next year.  But then, if you keep working & get insurance through your employer, how does that work?     He works crazy long days.  Which means I'll end up being the one who has to do the research...

he has to sign up and then employer is supplement...


I think!!

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Sept 23, 2023 16:45:37 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

I've technically reached FI already, so even if 

oooo, nice! Do you feel freer??

so FI in terms of 25xcurrent expenses?? Whacha waiting for - Carrot's eduction plans to be sorted out?

Or is it an FI number that relies on the eventual soc sec income? I forgot that I had figured out my FI numbers with taking ss at various ages after teen persuasion outlined how to do that on another thread. Just realized its all in my spreadsheet!

based on that i am pretty close, but really warry of counting on absolutely every dollar of projected sos sec income...

[debthaven]

as I menitoned, while taking at 62 certainly does protect a lot of the portfolio, the gains in soc sec payments between 62 and 70 are so generous, and permanent (alledgedly!), that it really does make it a tough thing to give up.

I believe that "perfect is the enemy of good". There are eight years between 62 and 70. 64/65/66/67 would all give you bigger soc sec payments than 62 (albeit not as much as 70).  

Congratulations on pulling the trigger resolution ! 

[laterbloomer]

Sept 24, 2023 14:09:06 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

Sept 23, 2023 17:07:37 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Has the stock market ever not recovered and grown over a 7 year span?
ETA - other than 1929

One thing that freaked me out during the 2008 GFC was in looking at the stock market indices I realized that the market hadn't really gained much of anything over the 2000 high point, just kind of took 8 years to get back to it and then dropped even lower than it had in 2000 crash.

I think it took until 2013 to gain new ground.

These more recent, more volatile ups and downs may be more predictive of now than 1929, so it is a worrisome thought for those of us that would like to retire sooner rather than <excuse me!> later.

What about Phil promising 12% returns?!?!🫨

[laterbloomer]

Sept 24, 2023 14:09:06 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

Sept 23, 2023 17:07:37 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Has the stock market ever not recovered and grown over a 7 year span?
ETA - other than 1929

One thing that freaked me out during the 2008 GFC was in looking at the stock market indices I realized that the market hadn't really gained much of anything over the 2000 high point, just kind of took 8 years to get back to it and then dropped even lower than it had in 2000 crash.

I think it took until 2013 to gain new ground.

These more recent, more volatile ups and downs may be more predictive of now than 1929, so it is a worrisome thought for those of us that would like to retire sooner rather than <excuse me!> later.

But if you bought in 2001 the value increased right?

[minnesotapaintlady]

Sept 24, 2023 14:39:43 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

Sept 23, 2023 16:45:37 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

I've technically reached FI already, so even if 

oooo, nice! Do you feel freer??

so FI in terms of 25xcurrent expenses?? Whacha waiting for - Carrot's eduction plans to be sorted out?

Or is it an FI number that relies on the eventual soc sec income? I forgot that I had figured out my FI numbers with taking ss at various ages after teen persuasion outlined how to do that on another thread. Just realized its all in my spreadsheet!

based on that i am pretty close, but really warry of counting on absolutely every dollar of projected sos sec income...

Yes, 25X expenses.  But, pretty non-fluffy, basic living expenses of 3K/month (SS assumed at 0)  It also doesn't "work" per firecalc unless I wait until 59.  That extra 5 years of drawing drops my "success rate" from 98% to 77%.  I mean, I guess 77% is still in my favor, especially if I don't live to the assumed 100, but not a sure enough thing for me.   Plus, lots of reasons quitting now doesn't make sense.  Still insuring the kids and paying for high school/college for Carrot are the biggies. Then there are all the tax credits that I still get with the kids.  That might even keep me working past 59 if Carrot goes to college because then there's 10K in education tax credits added on as well.  I also think working will be easier once he's out of the house. I will have so much of my time back that I spend doing kid stuff now and I can adjust my schedule to something that suits me and not around getting a kid to school at 7am and picked up at 4 and home with him in the evenings.

I do feel freer though.  It's nice to know if I get laid off or just fed up, I could stock shelves at Hyvee and be fine.

[TheOtherMe]

Sept 23, 2023 17:31:35 GMT -5 busymom said:

DH most likely won't retire until he's 70, and frankly the man is so stubborn that unless he has some unexpected medical issues, he'll probably work longer.


We need a thread on what happens with Medicare when you keep working, because I haven't a clue, and he'll be "of age" to sign up next year.  But then, if you keep working & get insurance through your employer, how does that work?     He works crazy long days.  Which means I'll end up being the one who has to do the research...

Do some research.  My friend worked well in to her 70's.  She had an exemption from Medicare Part B until she no longer had coverage.  

Her cost through her employer was cheaper than Part B and a supplement.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Sept 24, 2023 14:44:47 GMT -5 debthaven said:

as I menitoned, while taking at 62 certainly does protect a lot of the portfolio, the gains in soc sec payments between 62 and 70 are so generous, and permanent (alledgedly!), that it really does make it a tough thing to give up.

I believe that "perfect is the enemy of good". There are eight years between 62 and 70. 64/65/66/67 would all give you bigger soc sec payments than retiring 62! 

Yeppers!

rough plan fomenting right now is to hit "the number", whatever that is! Then convert to 5 years cash and/or treasuries. This will give 80/0/20 AA. So if stocks go down, draw from case, if stocks go up, draw from stocks and then if at some point stocks are down and cash is gone, file for soc sec benefits?


maybe? 

Finding it all kind of confusing, a bit scary if I make a mistake that ends up with my struggling the last 15 years of life..... 

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Sept 24, 2023 15:12:41 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Sept 24, 2023 14:09:06 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

One thing that freaked me out during the 2008 GFC was in looking at the stock market indices I realized that the market hadn't really gained much of anything over the 2000 high point, just kind of took 8 years to get back to it and then dropped even lower than it had in 2000 crash.

I think it took until 2013 to gain new ground.

These more recent, more volatile ups and downs may be more predictive of now than 1929, so it is a worrisome thought for those of us that would like to retire sooner rather than <excuse me!> later.

What about Phil promising 12% returns?!?!🫨

I think you might need a 30 year time frame for that? But I think he used to say 10 years!


from 2000 to now, only 6.9%

If you invested $1000 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2000, you would have about $4,796.43 at the end of 2023, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 379.64%, or 6.90% per year.



This lump-sum investment beats inflation during this period for an inflation-adjusted return of about 169.01% cumulatively, or 4.30% per year.



If you used dollar-cost averaging (monthly) instead of a lump-sum investment, you'd have $5,211.04.

Closer to 10% for 30 years! but certainly not 12%.

If you invested $1000 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1993, you would have about $18,158.61 at the end of 2023, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 1,715.86%, or 9.97% per year.



This lump-sum investment beats inflation during this period for an inflation-adjusted return of about 754.62% cumulatively, or 7.29% per year.



If you used dollar-cost averaging (monthly) instead of a lump-sum investment, you'd have $16,857.75.

I think Phil got pretty blessed with his investing. He put the money in over a very long flat market, and had a lot in there when it took off. 

1960 to 1999 was over 12% average for 40 years. Wow. I guess we all missed that boat....

If you invested $1000 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1960, you would have about $96,657.28 at the end of 1999, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 9,565.73%, or 12.11% per year.



This lump-sum investment beats inflation during this period for an inflation-adjusted return of about 1,617.32% cumulatively, or 7.37% per year.



If you used dollar-cost averaging (monthly) instead of a lump-sum investment, you'd have $89,643.39.

[tallguy]

Sept 24, 2023 14:13:39 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

Sept 23, 2023 17:31:35 GMT -5 busymom said:

DH most likely won't retire until he's 70, and frankly the man is so stubborn that unless he has some unexpected medical issues, he'll probably work longer.


We need a thread on what happens with Medicare when you keep working, because I haven't a clue, and he'll be "of age" to sign up next year.  But then, if you keep working & get insurance through your employer, how does that work?     He works crazy long days.  Which means I'll end up being the one who has to do the research...

he has to sign up and then employer is supplement...


I think!!

No.  If one is still working past 65 and gets health insurance through their job, they can wait to enroll in Part B and not have to pay the monthly premium should they choose.  They will have to enroll after they either stop working or lose their insurance, but they are not penalized for delaying if they have qualifying coverage.  One is probably eligible for Part A so can take that since there is no cost.  Depending on the size of the employer (under 20 employees), an employee may have to sign up for Medicare at 65 even with employer coverage.  Anyone in that situation needs to talk to their benefits administrator to understand the requirements of their plan and how coordination of benefits works under that plan. 

[countrygirl2]

We were in the situation of hubs working past the medicare age.

They encourage you to take part A at 65, its free and also than you will not be in danger of a penalty on it later, just in case. Who knows what can change.

As far as B and D, as long as  you show you still have those coverages through work you are fine and no late drawing penalties will be tacked onto your future premiums.  You just need to supply proof of continuous coverage is all.

[bean29]

Sept 23, 2023 17:31:35 GMT -5 busymom said:

DH most likely won't retire until he's 70, and frankly the man is so stubborn that unless he has some unexpected medical issues, he'll probably work longer.


We need a thread on what happens with Medicare when you keep working, because I haven't a clue, and he'll be "of age" to sign up next year.  But then, if you keep working & get insurance through your employer, how does that work?     He works crazy long days.  Which means I'll end up being the one who has to do the research...

If he works for a smaller employer (Under 50 emplyees?) he should ask for a raise to cover his medicare premium, end enroll. The employer’s cost of his insurance will go way down. If you enroll in medicare after 65? 67? And can’t show continuous credible coverage, there is a lifetime penalty, do as soon as he is out of a group plan, he needs to enroll

[bean29]

Sept 24, 2023 14:09:06 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

Sept 23, 2023 17:07:37 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Has the stock market ever not recovered and grown over a 7 year span?
ETA - other than 1929

One thing that freaked me out during the 2008 GFC was in looking at the stock market indices I realized that the market hadn't really gained much of anything over the 2000 high point, just kind of took 8 years to get back to it and then dropped even lower than it had in 2000 crash.

I think it took until 2013 to gain new ground.

These more recent, more volatile ups and downs may be more predictive of now than 1929, so it is a worrisome thought for those of us that would like to retire sooner rather than <excuse me!> later.

This is why I have s portion of my 401k in bonds. But I am trying to see if I can move it to something with s better return.

[djAdvocate]

i got a pleasant surprise in the last month.  an insurance settlement will make up my remaining balance in my retirement fund.  this was AFTER i negotiated a 3 year contract with my former employer.  i am training my replacement and my hours fall to consulting only, less than 20 hours per pay-period, before Thanksgiving.

while i was in Turkiye this time, i got an offer to rent out one of my two apartments.  that would create $685/month in rental income.  that was ALSO unexpected.  the other apartment is 90% completed, and could ALSO produce rental income, but i am thinking of just keeping it for myself for travel.  no point, given the insurance settlement.

NOTE: i am still a bit in disbelief about the insurance money.  i will believe it when i see it.  which, according to them, will happen almost concurrently with my retirement.  it really is some kind of crazy miracle. i don't need to liquidate ANY hard assets to make retirement happen, if it all goes according to plan, just draw down on existing liquid investment accounts.

edit: oh, i am 60.  i guess i should have mentioned that.  

[tractor]

I still like what I do, however I also am one of the lucky ones who still has a traditional pension that will max out in eight years. It will be hard not to take it. Everything else is on auto pilot, and I am confident even with a flat market my wife and I will be all set. She was going to retire this year, but decided to take it year by year until she can't stand it anymore. Her full pension benefits kick in in two weeks should she decide to walk out the door.

[busymom]

Sept 25, 2023 4:44:22 GMT -5 bean29 said:

Sept 23, 2023 17:31:35 GMT -5 busymom said:

DH most likely won't retire until he's 70, and frankly the man is so stubborn that unless he has some unexpected medical issues, he'll probably work longer.


We need a thread on what happens with Medicare when you keep working, because I haven't a clue, and he'll be "of age" to sign up next year.  But then, if you keep working & get insurance through your employer, how does that work?     He works crazy long days.  Which means I'll end up being the one who has to do the research...

If he works for a smaller employer (Under 50 emplyees?) he should ask for a raise to cover his medicare premium, end enroll. The employer’s cost of his insurance will go way down. If you enroll in medicare after 65? 67? And can’t show continuous credible coverage, there is a lifetime penalty, do as soon as he is out of a group plan, he needs to enroll

     He works for a large employer.  Again, we don't have anyone in the family who has signed up for Medicare recently (like, in the last 20 years), so not sure how the process works when you continue working.  I guess I'll need to find one of those books (is there a "Medicare for Dummies"?).  The only thing I've learned is, to NOT sign up for an Advantage plan, just because they're cheaper.  Stick with a Medicare supplement.  So, do you go to the Social Security Office to sign up?  (That's gonna s*ck if that's how the process goes, because our Social Security office is in one of the worst crime-filled neighborhoods down in the city.  We can't even take care of business in the 'burbs.)  

[busymom]

For example, if DH continues to work, and isn't taking Social Security yet, how does Medicare get their money from him?

[TheOtherMe]

I signed up for Medicare online.  

However, I don't think he will need to sign up for Medicare at 65 as he will have coverage.  He needs to talk to the people at his job and figure out how it works.  I know my friend didn't sign up for Medicare until past 70 and she did not have to pay a lifetime penalty because she had coverage through her job.

There are probably online articles about how this works.  I don't know if Minnesota has a SHIP office, but they can also advise on Medicare.