Roll call unretired! What is your timeline? Contingencies??

[Rukh O'Rorke]

So - with the 2 scenarios I linked to in above posts, I had taking social security at 70 based on my number for no more earnings after 2022 as that was my last info on that.

I went through both scenarios and plugged in my expected yearly social security income with taking it at each age from 62 through 70 and in both cases, taking the smaller amount earlier decreased the success rate. With itemizing the end of mortgage, SL, and car payments, the success rate ranged from 99% success at 62 and 63, to 100% from age 64 to 70. Changing my retirement age to 59 marginally altered the probabilities of various ending balances, but did not decrease the success rate. Basically - this indicates that if my spend is only 50k above my mortgage, student loans, and car payment, then I could retire when I am 59....checks watch....less than 2 weeks away.....blowing my mind a little bit here!

For the blanket 100k/year spend, the success rate ranged from 63% at 62 and stepped up slowly until it reached the max of 70% success rate at 69 and 70. Chnaging retirement age from 60 to 59 did decrease the success rate. Taking social security at 62 dropped to a sucess rate of 60%to 99, but if I increase the end age to 100 to match the expectations of the other models, success rates drop to 56%.

So - it makes a really big difference! Previously I had used the end of these payments as kind of fudge factors, but if I do model them ending at various years, I am going to need to make sure I am very precise about the rest of the budgeting....

[Happy prose]

Retired at 63, will collect SS at my full age of 66 and 10 months. (64 now) I have a pension, having worked 25 yrs on my job. I will get Medicare at 65, but work benefits becoming secondary. busymom, I was told I'd receive a bill for Medicare. Once I collect SS, I will elect to have jt taken from check.

[TheOtherMe]

You will receive a bill quarterly.  That's how I paid for Medicare from age 65 to 70.

[minnesotapaintlady]

Rukh O'Rorke - What calculator are you using to estimate SS?  The one on the social security site seems kind of useless to me.  After taking all the time to enter in all my annual income amounts, I discovered it doesn't have a way to say you're retiring in X year, but not drawing SS until a different year.  It either assumes I'm drawing ASAP after the retirement year or if I try to trick it by changing the retirement date to the year I want to start drawing it assumes I'm earning an income and paying FICA right up until that date when I actually quit a decade earlier.

Between that and the uncertainty of whether or not we will get the full amount, I've given up on precision with that number.  I get a number I think is fairly close, and then chop 30% off of it to be safe.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Sept 29, 2023 8:21:06 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

Rukh O'Rorke - What calculator are you using to estimate SS?  The one on the social security site seems kind of useless to me.  After taking all the time to enter in all my annual income amounts, I discovered it doesn't have a way to say you're retiring in X year, but not drawing SS until a different year.  It either assumes I'm drawing ASAP after the retirement year or if I try to trick it by changing the retirement date to the year I want to start drawing it assumes I'm earning an income and paying FICA right up until that date when I actually quit a decade earlier.

Between that and the uncertainty of whether or not we will get the full amount, I've given up on precision with that number.  I get a number I think is fairly close, and then chop 30% off of it to be safe.

oooo - I used the one in the social security site. After logging into my account, I used the little graph below, and on the drop down entered expected future income to be 0, and then I see the monthly amount at different ages and *12 for annual.

It isn't very sensitive, so as you said you can't model a whole bunch on it. But I think I got the right info for no future income. The monthly difference between collecting at 62 without specifiy 0 future income is about 100.

So I'm hoping that figure will get a bit of a boost after my 2023 income is posted. I have so many super low earning years to replace. But if working 3 more years to get to 62 is only 100/month....likely won't fulfuil all my dreams! I think the COL increase for the high inflation isn't in there either, so that is something else to look forward to!

A bit depressing! I tried to plan my retirement - lo those many years ago on the original YM! - without soc sec......but now I'm clearly sunk without it! 

Using the model with ending mortgage, SL, etc. my success rate goes from 100% with soci sec at 70, to 59% success rate

[Rukh O'Rorke]

ok....I'm feeling a bit of a shift in my mindset....I just went into my 401k and directed all new money into the liquid fund. Prior contributions are in 50% small/midcap, 40% large cap/sp500, and 10% international....so pretty aggressive. Will leave those funds there, just changing where new money is going. Current balance is a bit below 200k there.

I figure the future is equally likely to be a down market vs an up, and while my plan was for all of this 401k money to be sent to liquid once I decided to pull the plug, I guess I'm starting to enact some contingencies if the market goes south rather than north or west.....and wanting to have some options to quit anyway....

Could change my mind! I always revert to higher risk/reward profile! I've tried a few time to back down....but always go back....

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Sept 27, 2023 13:39:47 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

Sept 25, 2023 14:35:59 GMT -5 tallguy said:

The big thing is to keep your basic and necessary expenses under control.

This is not so straightforward to me right now.

I have a mortgage, student loans, and car loan right now. Those payments are about 50k/year. If I pulled money out of IRAs to pay all that off before retirement, I'd pay a whole lot in taxes vs paying on them as scheduled. even spreading it across a few years

Although the worry of a big market drop when leveraged is a concern, this gives me a 100% success rate if I retire next year at 60....I'll be 59 later this year....

engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/?spend=50000&initsav=1700000&age=60&yrs=40&stockpct=80&bondpct=0&cashpct=20&sex=0&infl=1&taxrate=15&fees=0.1&income=40000&incstart=70&incend=100&expense=25000;15000;10000&expstart=60;60;60&expend=82;66;64&showdeath=0&showlow=1&show2x=1&show5x=1&flexpct=10&spendthreshold=100&mort=ss

I'm not quite confident enough in my budget numbers and the inflation and market conditions to pull the plug quite yet. But I would certainly give it a whirl if I lost the day job......

I love these saved model links!

net worth down over 100k this month, went and plugged in expecting disaster....down to 99% success.....what??

I really need get super accurate with my budget cuz it is getting close to really be doing it! Pulling the plug! Will likely still wait about a year to get to 60, get the house fixes done, observe the market, inflation, social security figures, etc. Also, shore up cash counts and make sure I'm confident in all my numbers...budget values, etc.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

ooooo can I call myself FI?


Ish??

[minnesotapaintlady]

Sept 29, 2023 15:00:37 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

ok....I'm feeling a bit of a shift in my mindset....I just went into my 401k and directed all new money into the liquid fund. Prior contributions are in 50% small/midcap, 40% large cap/sp500, and 10% international....so pretty aggressive.

I'm currently 100% in S&P 500 in my 401K and would LOVE to start directing to something fixed income, but my options suck.  There's a guaranteed income annuity, which return rate is pretty crappy considering how high just money markets are paying.  The fund is at 1.3% YTD and 0.48% for last quarter. 

The other option is a bond fund which has a kind of high expense ratio. 

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Oct 2, 2023 9:17:51 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

Sept 29, 2023 15:00:37 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

ok....I'm feeling a bit of a shift in my mindset....I just went into my 401k and directed all new money into the liquid fund. Prior contributions are in 50% small/midcap, 40% large cap/sp500, and 10% international....so pretty aggressive.

I'm currently 100% in S&P 500 in my 401K and would LOVE to start directing to something fixed income, but my options suck.  There's a guaranteed income annuity, which return rate is pretty crappy considering how high just money markets are paying.  The fund is at 1.3% YTD and 0.48% for last quarter. 

The other option is a bond fund which has a kind of high expense ratio. 

Mine are crappy too, so I have resisted thus far. But if I am targetting to retire in 12-18 months, it is definitely time to shift. I'm hoping for a nice bull run between now and then, of course! But trying to cobble together a strategy in case that doesn't occur. So this would help in the case of your 5 year sideways market to a maybe 10% drop. But if we see a 20+ drop, I will have to work a bit longer. I think if I can build up to 2 years cash and if it isn't like 1929, 1999, 2008, I will wing it at that point. Would be 61/62 with the cash taking me to 63/64 and take soc sec if need be.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

and....another negative day on wall street!

Feel like I'm shaking dice lilting "common! momma needs a new pair of shoes!"

It never works, lol!

[Tiny]

It's the combination of the fear of a Government Shut Down, Student Loans repayment starting, and the Christmas Holiday shopping season kick off. It's giving Wall Street the jitters.

It will pass.

[debthaven]

Rukh O'Rorke , remember you also have Rukh Inc. 

[laterbloomer]

Oct 2, 2023 14:05:16 GMT -5 Tiny said:

It's the combination of the fear of a Government Shut Down, Student Loans repayment starting, and the Christmas Holiday shopping season kick off. It's giving Wall Street the jitters.

It will pass.

No it's not. I just finished my contributions for this year. The price is always up when I'm buying and drops when I'm done. Don't worry, I will be contributing again in January.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Oct 2, 2023 14:56:36 GMT -5 debthaven said:

Rukh O'Rorke , remember you also have Rukh Inc. 

oooo I could do an IPO

[trimatty471]

Sept 24, 2023 15:42:10 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

Sept 24, 2023 14:39:43 GMT -5 Rukh O'Rorke said:

oooo, nice! Do you feel freer??

so FI in terms of 25xcurrent expenses?? Whacha waiting for - Carrot's eduction plans to be sorted out?

Or is it an FI number that relies on the eventual soc sec income? I forgot that I had figured out my FI numbers with taking ss at various ages after teen persuasion outlined how to do that on another thread. Just realized its all in my spreadsheet!

based on that i am pretty close, but really warry of counting on absolutely every dollar of projected sos sec income...

I do feel freer though.  It's nice to know if I get laid off or just fed up, I could stock shelves at Hyvee and be fine.

This is my goal.  I was there 4 years ago, not FI but very low expenses.  But, I moved.    At the moment I am nearly FI if not already there.

[movingforward]

Everyone's situation is different but I can't wrap my head around not taking SS as soon as I possibly can. The average lifespan is around 76, and 90% of my relatives died before the age of 72. If they had waited until 70 to start collecting they would have received very little. Dad is my only older relative still alive at 76 and in good health. He started collecting at 62 and said he has never regretted it.

[minnesotapaintlady]

Oct 8, 2023 8:22:23 GMT -5 movingforward said:

Everyone's situation is different but I can't wrap my head around not taking SS as soon as I possibly can. The average lifespan is around 76, and 90% of my relatives died before the age of 72. If they had waited until 70 to start collecting they would have received very little. Dad is my only older relative still alive at 76 and in good health. He started collecting at 62 and said he has never regretted it.

It depends on how that SS is playing into your plan though.  If you want to retire at 62 and need it to do so, then yeah, it makes sense to draw early and get what you can. 

My plan is more a steady draw of X the entire time I'm retired, only where it's coming from changes.  If you look at SS as just another investment in your arsenal that increases a guaranteed 8%/year for those 8 years it's easier to consider letting it sit while spending down other sources.  The break even point is around age 80 between taking at 62 and taking at 70 so I consider it longevity insurance more than anything.  If I make it past 80 I'll be happy I waited, if I die at 70 I'll be dead and it won't matter.  I might have pulled less (or no) SS, but I spent down more of my savings to compensate.

Now, I'm also coming from this with a background where most of my family live to at least 80...women often into their 90's.  if most died prior to 72 I would probably be more inclined to draw earlier...although that would be more of an emotional decision than a math one.

[laterbloomer]

Oct 8, 2023 8:22:23 GMT -5 movingforward said:

Everyone's situation is different but I can't wrap my head around not taking SS as soon as I possibly can. The average lifespan is around 76, and 90% of my relatives died before the age of 72. If they had waited until 70 to start collecting they would have received very little. Dad is my only older relative still alive at 76 and in good health. He started collecting at 62 and said he has never regretted it.

I'm in Canada so my system is a bit different. CPP =SS, TFSA=Roth, RRSP=401K, I don't know if you have anything like GIS
If I use my Tax Free Savings Account for income from 65 to 70, my net income stays low enough on my income tax return to qualify for Guaranteed Income Suppliment until 70. What I will get in GIS will be the same as what I would get in CPP. Our CPP does not pay out as well as your SS. Then at 70 I get enhanced CPP at the same time I start using my RRSP's. So I get 5 more years growth on everything.

[pulmonarymd]

Oct 8, 2023 8:22:23 GMT -5 movingforward said:

Everyone's situation is different but I can't wrap my head around not taking SS as soon as I possibly can. The average lifespan is around 76, and 90% of my relatives died before the age of 72. If they had waited until 70 to start collecting they would have received very little. Dad is my only older relative still alive at 76 and in good health. He started collecting at 62 and said he has never regretted it.

Wrong way of looking at it. The older you are, the longer you will likely live. Make 60, and life expectancy is late 70’s. Make 70, life expectancy is 83. Make 80, it is 88. And remember, 50% of people live longer.

Americans seriously underestimate how long they will likely live. If you wait to claim and you die early you leave money on the table. If you claim early and live a long time you could be in a serious problem if your savings are not adequate. Which situation is riskier?

[TheOtherMe]

My parents couldn't wait to turn 62 so they could take Social Security.  They lived to be 90 and 95.  That decision was one of my dad's biggest regrets in life.  3 more years of working ad he wouldn't have taken the hit of taking SS at 62.  Mom didn't earn enough to have it make much of a difference.

I am really understanding what I have in my genes when it comes to longevity. In my genealogy research, I am shocked at how many of my family lived into their 80's and 90's and they certainly didn't have the kind of medical care we have today.

[movingforward]

Oct 8, 2023 11:16:01 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Oct 8, 2023 8:22:23 GMT -5 movingforward said:

Everyone's situation is different but I can't wrap my head around not taking SS as soon as I possibly can. The average lifespan is around 76, and 90% of my relatives died before the age of 72. If they had waited until 70 to start collecting they would have received very little. Dad is my only older relative still alive at 76 and in good health. He started collecting at 62 and said he has never regretted it.

Wrong way of looking at it. The older you are, the longer you will likely live. Make 60, and life expectancy is late 70’s. Make 70, life expectancy is 83. Make 80, it is 88. And remember, 50% of people live longer.

Americans seriously underestimate how long they will likely live. If you wait to claim and you die early you leave money on the table. If you claim early and live a long time you could be in a serious problem if your savings are not adequate. Which situation is riskier?

I'm not depending on SS to live on. I put it in the same category as any inheritance I may receive. It's snowflake money and not part of my retirement calculation. I do understand it's not like that for many people. For me, I feel like taking it early makes sense.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

50% of my parents' siblings made it to 90's. My father passed away at 96, my mother is looking at hitting triple digits in a week! She is finally going to go into assisted living after living on her own since my father passed away about 10 years ago. Her SS and pension will cover about 37% of monthly costs.

I don't want to wait till 70, but I think best plan on that and will try to do it. Based on the cost for my mother's AL, my SS at 62 would cover only 29% while my ss at 70 would cover 51% of monthly costs.

Fortunately or unfortunately as it may be, I really should model out my retirement savings to 100. I'm trying to balance out being prudent about my likely longevity, and wanting to hang it all up.....like.......today! My probability of success is higher if I only model to 90 rather than 100.....

But so, my mom is going to be 100 in a week, and while she is hving mobility issues and needs a walker all the time now, otherwise, she seems completely fine (she was in the hospital last month and has been in a rehab place since.....but she has bounced back as usual). Do I need to model out my numbers to 110? Will I just revert to the mean? My life expectancy based on age from today is 25.44 years......Now - I got that covered for retirement......

[giramomma]

Honestly, I think it's all a crap shoot, in terms of how long we live.

Both of my parents should have died 10-15 years ago, if you go by family history. None of my grandparents saw 70. My dad should have died 2-3 years after his cancer diagnosis. Instead, he was about 6 months away from living to the average age for me. With Stage 4, terminal cancer.

Do you need to model your numbers to 110? Probably not. You are a have, and you have been responsible with your money.

You have the flexibility to deal with life.

I mean. We probably make less than half of you, and are worth half of you. (We're still only worth 1mil, give or take).  We are going to be fine, to have enough to deal with life.

I don't understand you aren't in the same position.

[pulmonarymd]

We cannot predict what any one person’s life expectancy is. But we can, with a high degree of accuracy predict a populations. Actuaries do it very well. People on this board try to take all kinds of risk out of life by planning, yet this discussion at times feels like it’s on another board. Longevity risk is real, and not taking it into account is risky to your future self. Remember, dying is only one problem with aging. Disability is the real risk as you get older, and can be exceedingly expensive

[CCL]

Our parents/grandparents lived to late 70s-80s, so we figured we'd likely do the same. Then our siblings started dying. We all like
to think we'll live to an old age, but it doesn't always work out that way. Hubby took his SS as soon as he could get it. I'll do the same.

[Rukh O'Rorke]

Oct 8, 2023 13:00:46 GMT -5 giramomma said:

Honestly, I think it's all a crap shoot, in terms of how long we live.

Both of my parents should have died 10-15 years ago, if you go by family history. None of my grandparents saw 70. My dad should have died 2-3 years after his cancer diagnosis. Instead, he was about 6 months away from living to the average age for me. With Stage 4, terminal cancer.

Do you need to model your numbers to 110? Probably not. You are a have, and you have been responsible with your money.

You have the flexibility to deal with life.

I mean. We probably make less than half of you, and are worth half of you. (We're still only worth 1mil, give or take).  We are going to be fine, to have enough to deal with life.

I don't understand you aren't in the same position.

Strange to hear myself being called a have for sure! Still feeling like the underdog, but I guess maybe thats not true anymore....but I usually don't associate being a have while working constantly like I do....and not resticted m-f, nor to business hours....


I do think I'm in pretty good shape, but i've taken on a lot of risk too. individual stocks, 6 figure student loans late in life, overall, I'm highly leveraged, and leverage is risky.


So, I don't feel so secure....

[Pink Cashmere]

When I went to work yesterday, the very first conversation I had, was a coworker telling me about another death of someone I knew. The man that died was retired, but I’d worked with him for years before he retired. 

Idk if it’s because I work in a building with hundreds of employees, or what, but it seems like people I work and have worked with, have been dying left and right over the last few years. I’ve been there long enough that coworkers dying isn’t really new, and not all of them have been “old” people the whole time, but the pace seems to have accelerated over over the last few years. 

It seems like many of my coworkers that work long enough to retire and especially out of those that continue to work even after they are eligible to retire, don’t get to have decades to enjoy being retired. I have some thoughts about that, but that isn’t my point here, and is a conversation for another space and time.

But it does factor into some of my thoughts concerning retiring myself. As far as family history, I literally know nothing about my biological father’s family regarding health and and longevity, besides the fact that he died when he was in his late 50’s. On my Mom’s side, my great grandmother lived until her mid 90’s, even though she was pretty much a vegetable the last few years of her life. Her mind bailed first, with dementia, and she eventually became bedridden because her body started bailing. But even with her mind and body failing, she lived several more years. Years that my Grandmother was her full time caregiver, and basically had to tend to her like a newborn baby that couldn’t talk or control their body.

Once a (wo)man, twice a child.

My Grandmother started having dementia in her early 80’s, and died when she was 85yo, because her heart gave out. It might sound crazy or callous, but even though losing her was devastating, I am glad that she didn’t linger, just being a shell of the person I knew, and suffering, like my great grandmother did. What might sound even more callous, but I know what it really was, is that I was kind of relieved when my great grandmother died, because it ended her physical suffering. She had been just a shell for so long, that I’d accepted that she was gone, long before she actually died. 

All of that to say that, given all of that, idk how to try to gauge my life expectancy and what I might need later in life. Dementia seems to “run” in my family, but so does getting to be “old”. Even as far as dementia, my Aunt (my Mom’s only sibling), starting showing early signs of it a few years ago, signs that even she recognized and told me “I know what it is, because we’ve seen it before”. She will be 78yo this year, and so far, the signs are still just that she has issues with her memory and repeats herself because she doesn’t remember that she already told you something. It’s not progressing rapidly.

My Mom…. She is not as sharp as she used to be with a lot of things, and the biggest issue with her is still what I think is probably some kind of disorder that she has always had, not dementia. She is 73yo now. 

The paternal side of my genetics, all I know is that my biological father died before he was 60yo. I think he was raised by his Grandmother, but idek why I think that. I have no idea what any of his family’s names are, including his parents or grandparents, or even if he had siblings. So I definitely do not know the history concerning health and longevity. 

So between what I’ve noticed about my coworkers, and knowing that my Mom’s side of the family seems to live longer than the average life expectancy, but there is the risk of dementia, and on my biological father’s side, knowing nothing besides the fact that he died before he was 60yo, I feel like anything can happen, between dying “young”, and living close to 100 years…. but possibly having dementia during many of those later years. 

Because I don’t feel like it’s even possible for me to try to fund a decade or so in a facility if I have dementia, I just focus on trying to be able to retire ASAP. On my own, I will probably apply for SS at age 62, and I am just hoping I actually get there in decent shape. That’s just what it is, so….. whatever. If when I actually get to 62yo, my situation is such that I don’t NEED the money, I will delay it for as long as is reasonable for whatever I need to take care of me. 

Even though it is causing me so many problems, my house that I have, that I don’t need to actually live in, is still the card in my back pocket, that I can play if/when I absolutely have to. It’s there if I ever need somewhere to lay my head, it can be a source of income when I retire, and it is an asset that can help me if my future goes sideways. My blessing is that, property values are increasing in that area, because….. imma just say that some people are starting to come back “home”.

My retirement account has more money in it than my house is worth today, but I still see my house as a valuable asset. It’s value to ME, owning some real estate that gives me options, is just as important as getting all the money I can from my employer by contributing money to my retirement account that they will match, and actually contributing more, for the returns on my investments, and trying to figure out all the other ways I can win, with what I know and have available to me. 

[TheOtherMe]

I saw too many people who lived their job at the IRS who worked past the 70% of their high 3 for retirement.  That's 35 years of service.  That was under CSRS.  They didn't last long after retirement because they had no life.  

I didn't work to die right after I retire.  

[minnesotapaintlady]

Oct 8, 2023 13:00:46 GMT -5 giramomma said:

I mean. We probably make less than half of you, and are worth half of you. (We're still only worth 1mil, give or take).  We are going to be fine, to have enough to deal with life.

I don't understand you aren't in the same position.

But with no pension and being single in a HCOL area she also has to save a lot more than you too.  All while paying a lot more in taxes while trying to do so.