Turkish Elections 2023

[djAdvocate]

Erdogan has chosen the earliest possible date for the elections: May 14th.  that date might be changed as the chaos from the last earthquake (which impacts Erdogan more than his competition) is still being felt in Turkiye. 

There are six declared candidates from Turkiye's six major parties.  No party ever wins a clear majority, but Erdogan has come very close to a clear majority, and has easily won the runoff election.

This election APPEARS to be different, according to polls.  the opposition party (CHP) has been leading since last November.  and the earthquake has driven down approval of Erdogan even further.  he now trails by double digits, though not enough to lose outright.  he is suffering from three major problems and a few minor ones.

first, his handling of the economy has been atrocious.  Turkiye has led the world in inflation, and the Lira has fallen this week to a record low of 19.  he keeps flipping his finance people, because they audaciously disagree with his monetary policy (his policies make supply side economics seem sensible), and it has made that aspect of his presidency very troublesome to most Turks.

second, he is getting quite old, after 20 years in office, and there is some sense that it is time to change things.  

and then there was the earthquake, which has led to persistent questions about the governments implentation of the new seismic standards put in place after the massive Izmit Earthquake in 1999 (shortly before Erdogan took power).  that quake killed 18k.  this one killed at least 53k.  so, there are some serious questions about what, if anything, was done to upgrade national seismic standards, and if something was done, what was done, and what impact did it have?

it should be noted that criticizing the government is against the law in Turkiye, so running for office is.....different.  you have to state what you would do, and the problems you see in Turkiye, without formally criticizing the government.  this also makes polling difficult, by the way.

having said that, this guy is leading in the polls:


en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemal_K%C4%B1l%C4%B1%C3%A7daro%C4%9Flu

i just call him Kemal.  and i kind of like him, apart from the anti-immigration talk.  he belongs to a mystical part of Islam that is non-dogmatic.  think of a Muslim Buddhist, and you kind of got it.  and he is an economist, which would be really good for Turkiye.  so, i HOPE he wins.  but we will see.

[happyhoix]

I didn’t realize Turkey still has actual elections. I thought they had the Russian type elections - show elections.

So that’s good.

I imagine Trump will be heartbroken if one of his strong men buddies loses his job.

[djAdvocate]

i think the main problem with Turkish elections is that there is no protected speech.

that allows rulers to stay in power far longer than they probably should.

[djAdvocate]

i have concluded that this will be an interesting election.  it will show which direction Turkiye wants to move.

in 2017, they narrowly opted for a presidential system.  in that election, some civil rights were scaled back, and separation of powers were breached.

in the 2018/2019 parliamentary elections, Kemal's party asserted itself for the cause of increasing separation of powers and restoring civil rights.  he even participated in a march of civil disobedience which had over 100k in it, which is unheard of in Turkiye.

Erdogan's coalition is center right, far right, ultranationalist and islamist.  some of the more extreme members of the coalition are frightening.

Kemal's coalition is center left, center right, and right wing.  none of the coalition strikes me as terrifying, and Kemal himself is a moderate.

there are three other coalitions, and they are all far left.  there is also an Independent running.

if Kemal wins, i think he stands an excellent chance of attaining a governing majority in Parliament simply by coalescing everyone OTHER than Erdogan's coaltion.  since that would constitute a majority CURRENTLY, it makes sense to me that it would do so even more easily IF Kemal wins.

the May 14th election will almost certainly produce a runoff between Erdogan and Kemal.  and since Kemal is already leading, and the other 3 coalitions are far left, they will have nobody to vote for other than Kemal.  

it is still by no means certain that there will BE an election on the 14th.  and if there isn't, all bets are off.  Erdogan may very well try to hold on to power using emergency provisions.  however, he himself has sunset those provisions BEFORE the election.  so, the first and most unnerving possibility is that he will extend them.  i have not been in Turkieye since the provisions went into place, so i have no idea what it is like there, now.

[djAdvocate]

the history of Kemal's party is interesting.

the CHP was the first political party in Turkiye, and ran the country for it's first 25 years.  after that, Turkiye became a multiparty democracy, which eventually led to two coups, and the BANISHMENT of the CHP.  the CHP re-emerged in 1992, and has grown from non-existent to around 30-40% of the electorate since, depending on the eleciton.

the opposition to the CHP is anti-democratic, by and large.

at it's post one party rule peak, the CHP was approximately half the electorate.  it seems reasonable to assume that it might have a shot at getting back there, if it does NOT get shut down again.

[Spellbound454]

Erdogan is in trouble over the earthquakes.

When you look at the aftermath... some buildings are standing and some are not.

There was no need for all those buildings to come down because regulation to make earthquake safer was in place,

but it had been corrupted and flouted.

Erdogan has taken Turkey further away from Europe and more towards the Islamic countries.

Which is a shame but if that's what the people want then so be it.

I expect he'll try to cling on to power by his finger nails......, Just like leaders of the World so often do

but we'll just have to hope that whatever comes next is better.
.

[djAdvocate]

good article on it, here:


www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65467117


i think they make an improper assertion about Erdogan in the fourth paragraph, and don't say enough about his opponent.   

Erdogan is not an Islamist, in the strictest sense.  he is a religious conservative that has ALIGNED himself with Islamist elements in Turkish society to maintain and expand power.  and, of course, to someone from the BBC, this may seem like parsing.  but Islamism is militant and expansive.  Erdogan is far more insular than that.

the other thing i don't like about this article is that they don't mention that Kemal's background is in economics.  he would qualify as a moderate Republican in the US or a moderate conservative in most European countries- a slot sometimes referred to (outside the US) as LIBERAL.  his religious sect comes from mystical Islam, so he is absolutely Islamic, but he is about as close to Islam as Quakerism is to Christianity.

if Kemal wins, Erdogan will likely contest the election.  it has become customary for center right (this is how I would describe Erdogan) to far right conservatives to do so.  so what happens after that remains to be seen.

there is palpable tension in Turkiye.  we will see how it gets resolved.  Turkiye is a very important country in the region.  to see it fall into chaos would be unfortunate.

[djAdvocate]

this is a fantastic article by Rueters.
i have to say that Reuters does a GREAT job of not only covering Turkiye, but delivering English language economic news to Turks.  it is incredibly well crafted, honest, and excellent reporting.  and they brought that edge to this review of the elections, and it's likely impact on the economy, interest rates, the Lira, and the Turkish Borsa.  highly recommended reading if you are only CASUALLY interested in Turkiye.  essential if you are more interested than that.

NOTE: this article also points out why the stock market rallies in the native currency during downturns, and explains "negative interest rates" (how you can borrow money and make money by paying back in deflated currency) as well as can be done.  challenging, thoughtful, and painfully accurate economics reporting.

www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/investors-buckle-up-pivotal-turkey-elections-2023-05-11/

[Opti]

May 6, 2023 14:07:27 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

good article on it, here:


www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65467117


i think they make an improper assertion about Erdogan in the fourth paragraph, and don't say enough about his opponent.   

Erdogan is not an Islamist, in the strictest sense.  he is a religious conservative that has ALIGNED himself with Islamist elements in Turkish society to maintain and expand power.  and, of course, to someone from the BBC, this may seem like parsing.  but Islamism is militant and expansive.  Erdogan is far more insular than that.

the other thing i don't like about this article is that they don't mention that Kemal's background is in economics.  he would qualify as a moderate Republican in the US or a moderate conservative in most European countries- a slot sometimes referred to (outside the US) as LIBERAL.  his religious sect comes from mystical Islam, so he is absolutely Islamic, but he is about as close to Islam as Quakerism is to Christianity.

if Kemal wins, Erdogan will likely contest the election.  it has become customary for center right (this is how I would describe Erdogan) to far right conservatives to do so.  so what happens after that remains to be seen.

there is palpable tension in Turkiye.  we will see how it gets resolved.  Turkiye is a very important country in the region.  to see it fall into chaos would be unfortunate.

There are so many sects and beliefs in Islamic faiths. I think it is a mistake to believe there is one dominant strain instead of sometimes certain sects or Islamic leaders come to power and control various regions. Christianity is far from unified, and I really don't like the GOP/Trump party line that it is unified belief wise. It is not. 

I believe mystical Islam is less dogmatic that the power-hungry sects and less into controlling the population. Sufis are often favored by parts of the metaphysical and internal martial arts communities. I think there were some Sufis at one time came to NYC every December. The person I knew who used to go, is now in their 80s, so probably doesn't attend any more if in fact they have restarted coming to NYC post Covid.

Are you hoping Kemal will win? 

[Opti]

Posting from your URL in the OP for those who won't open the link.


He is the Islamist leader's main rival in elections on 14 May and has a narrow lead in opinion polls. This tight race is expected to go to a second round two weeks later.



Currently Turks can go to jail for "insulting the president". Many have.



"I am telling young people they can criticise me freely. I will make sure they have this right," says the 74-year-old, who leads the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).



Some of Mr Kilicdaroglu's supporters fear for his safety but he says it comes with the territory.



"Being in politics in Turkey means choosing a life with risks. I will walk my path whatever Erdogan and his allies do. They can't put me off. They can't scare me. I made a promise to this nation."

[djAdvocate]

May 12, 2023 6:31:55 GMT -5 Opti said:

May 6, 2023 14:07:27 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

good article on it, here:


www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65467117


i think they make an improper assertion about Erdogan in the fourth paragraph, and don't say enough about his opponent.   

Erdogan is not an Islamist, in the strictest sense.  he is a religious conservative that has ALIGNED himself with Islamist elements in Turkish society to maintain and expand power.  and, of course, to someone from the BBC, this may seem like parsing.  but Islamism is militant and expansive.  Erdogan is far more insular than that.

the other thing i don't like about this article is that they don't mention that Kemal's background is in economics.  he would qualify as a moderate Republican in the US or a moderate conservative in most European countries- a slot sometimes referred to (outside the US) as LIBERAL.  his religious sect comes from mystical Islam, so he is absolutely Islamic, but he is about as close to Islam as Quakerism is to Christianity.

if Kemal wins, Erdogan will likely contest the election.  it has become customary for center right (this is how I would describe Erdogan) to far right conservatives to do so.  so what happens after that remains to be seen.

there is palpable tension in Turkiye.  we will see how it gets resolved.  Turkiye is a very important country in the region.  to see it fall into chaos would be unfortunate.

There are so many sects and beliefs in Islamic faiths. I think it is a mistake to believe there is one dominant strain instead of sometimes certain sects or Islamic leaders come to power and control various regions. Christianity is far from unified, and I really don't like the GOP/Trump party line that it is unified belief wise. It is not. 

I believe mystical Islam is less dogmatic that the power-hungry sects and less into controlling the population. Sufis are often favored by parts of the metaphysical and internal martial arts communities. I think there were some Sufis at one time came to NYC every December. The person I knew who used to go, is now in their 80s, so probably doesn't attend any more if in fact they have restarted coming to NYC post Covid.

Are you hoping Kemal will win? 

of course!  Kemal would be a huge step forward in converting Turkiye into a modern democracy.  they are still struggling with governance in Turkiye.  there was a coup attempt in 2016.  open elections are still a new concept there.  in addition, Kemal's economics are far better for Turkiye than Erdogans bass akwards economics.

[djAdvocate]

May 12, 2023 6:33:57 GMT -5 Opti said:

Posting from your URL in the OP for those who won't open the link.


He is the Islamist leader's main rival in elections on 14 May and has a narrow lead in opinion polls. This tight race is expected to go to a second round two weeks later.



Currently Turks can go to jail for "insulting the president". Many have.



"I am telling young people they can criticise me freely. I will make sure they have this right," says the 74-year-old, who leads the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).



Some of Mr Kilicdaroglu's supporters fear for his safety but he says it comes with the territory.



"Being in politics in Turkey means choosing a life with risks. I will walk my path whatever Erdogan and his allies do. They can't put me off. They can't scare me. I made a promise to this nation."

it is somewhat mollifying that Kemal has been ALLOWED to run.  but shutting him down would create massive unreset, so Erdogan has let it go.  moreover, he has a CHANCE at beating him fairly.  and finally, expect Erdogan to pull a Trump if he loses.  he will claim election fraud, and throw the election system into chaos.  and their election system is FAR MORE fragile than ours.  so this is a strange moment for Turkiye.  a nervous moment.  

[Opti]

May 12, 2023 12:15:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

May 12, 2023 6:33:57 GMT -5 Opti said:

Posting from your URL in the OP for those who won't open the link.


He is the Islamist leader's main rival in elections on 14 May and has a narrow lead in opinion polls. This tight race is expected to go to a second round two weeks later.



Currently Turks can go to jail for "insulting the president". Many have.



"I am telling young people they can criticise me freely. I will make sure they have this right," says the 74-year-old, who leads the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).



Some of Mr Kilicdaroglu's supporters fear for his safety but he says it comes with the territory.



"Being in politics in Turkey means choosing a life with risks. I will walk my path whatever Erdogan and his allies do. They can't put me off. They can't scare me. I made a promise to this nation."

it is somewhat mollifying that Kemal has been ALLOWED to run.  but shutting him down would create massive unreset, so Erdogan has let it go.  moreover, he has a CHANCE at beating him fairly.  and finally, expect Erdogan to pull a Trump if he loses.  he will claim election fraud, and throw the election system into chaos.  and their election system is FAR MORE fragile than ours.  so this is a strange moment for Turkiye.  a nervous moment.  

Well I will pray for them, and you that Kemal does win and does get power and transforms Turkiye. It is an important historic nation, and it would be a positive sign for global politics. 

[djAdvocate]

May 13, 2023 15:05:54 GMT -5 Opti said:

May 12, 2023 12:15:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

it is somewhat mollifying that Kemal has been ALLOWED to run.  but shutting him down would create massive unreset, so Erdogan has let it go.  moreover, he has a CHANCE at beating him fairly.  and finally, expect Erdogan to pull a Trump if he loses.  he will claim election fraud, and throw the election system into chaos.  and their election system is FAR MORE fragile than ours.  so this is a strange moment for Turkiye.  a nervous moment.  

Well I will pray for them, and you that Kemal does win and does get power and transforms Turkiye. It is an important historic nation, and it would be a positive sign for global politics. 

it would also be a HIGHLY UNUSUAL step to the left.
most nations are moving right as we speak.

[Opti]

May 13, 2023 15:40:39 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

May 13, 2023 15:05:54 GMT -5 Opti said:

Well I will pray for them, and you that Kemal does win and does get power and transforms Turkiye. It is an important historic nation, and it would be a positive sign for global politics. 

it would also be a HIGHLY UNUSUAL step to the left.
most nations are moving right as we speak.

The move to the right will rubber band into a move to the left. How quickly and when and how TBD. 

[tbop77]

Twitter users are blasting the social media platform for “censoring” content in Turkey the day before its presidential election.



Twitter announced Friday it would limit access in the country without specifying the type of content or accounts that would be affected.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/elon-musk-blasted-for-censoring-twitter-in-turkey-ahead-of-pivotal-election/ar-AA1b9Ajh?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=63608b105fa24779bd593ee5d0d73405&ei=51

Mr Free Speech?  

[djAdvocate]

May 14, 2023 7:42:17 GMT -5 tbop77 said:

Twitter users are blasting the social media platform for “censoring” content in Turkey the day before its presidential election.



Twitter announced Friday it would limit access in the country without specifying the type of content or accounts that would be affected.


www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/elon-musk-blasted-for-censoring-twitter-in-turkey-ahead-of-pivotal-election/ar-AA1b9Ajh?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=63608b105fa24779bd593ee5d0d73405&ei=51

Mr Free Speech?  

not defending Mr. Free Speech here, but Twitter will get shut down if it doesn't follow the rules.  not that it should NOT get shut down.  it probably should.

[Spellbound454]

I don't think Erdogan will respect the result if he loses.

Turkey could be in for a rough few weeks.

[djAdvocate]

May 14, 2023 12:10:46 GMT -5 Spellbound454 said:

I don't think Erdogan will respect the result if he loses.

Turkey could be in for a rough few weeks.

there is a 95% chance that the election won't be decided today.
if it IS decided today, Erdogan will win.

the opposition is a coalition.  on paper it has over 50%.  but with five candidates running, the only clear winner will be Erdogan, and he will PROBABLY get less than 50%, which forces a runoff election in 2 weeks.

so, yes, Turkiye may be in for a rough time, but it won't be this month.

[djAdvocate]

having said that, the Turkish stock market and Lira are going to be bouncing all over like a basketball, imo.  not a good time for Turkish investors without strong stomachs.

[djAdvocate]

this is an unusually good analysis by CNN on what are the pivotal factors:


www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/turkey-election-05-14-23/index.html

[djAdvocate]

i think Kemal's positioning here is somewhat dangerous.  he is calling the state run media's analysis of the returns a fraud.  but what choice does he have?  if he says nothing, they can cheat the election- which they are going to try to do anyway.

it is pretty clear at this moment that Erdogan does NOT want a runoff.  he fears losing the runoff.  as well he should.

[djAdvocate]

PS- for those of you wondering, his last name is pronounced kil-ich-DA-ro.  the glu is ducked.

[djAdvocate]

the NEXT report from state run media will be interesting.
the reason is that Erdogan has lost 7% from the first ballot, and is now polling at 52%.
as the day wears on, this should result in neither candidate getting 50%, which would force a runoff.

the question now becomes whether state run media will report on that, or choose to abstain from comment and let the opposition assume the dialog.

state run media has not commented in the last hour.  that is a LONG interval.  i think they know that the runoff is coming.  but i am just guessing.

edit: the last election had Erdogan starting off at 66.5% and finishing at 52%.  this election had him starting at 59.5%, which SHOULD mean that he ends up below 50%.  if this is a repeat of last time, he would end up at 45%, which would be pretty much in a dead heat with Kemal, with the balance going to 3rd parties.  that would force a runoff election in 14 days.  this is the result i EXPECT.  but that may not be the result i get.

update: it has been 90 minutes since last comment by state run media.  that is a lifetime during elections.  unusual.  and probably a bad sign for Erdogan.  state run media better figure out how to handle the news CORRECTLY, or things will get bad.  they should simply address the runoff rather than debating the results.  but we will see.

[djAdvocate]

NOTE: based on reports from the opposition, it is POSSIBLE that Kemal will win the majority on the first round.  but i doubt it.  i think that Kemal might win the vote in the first round, however.  and that would be a disaster for Erdogan.  he won't handle it well.

i am predicting Kemal will get 45-49%, as will Erdogan.  i am candidly surprised that Kemal is doing this well.  i felt he would lose by about 5%, but force a runoff.  now, it appears that the 3rd party vote is falling in line in this election.  that is the biggest surprise for me.  i predicted 10% would go third party.  now, it appears that significantly less than 10% will.  this is similar to what i have seen in the US.  which is ALSO a good sign for Turkiye.  polling was reasonably accurate:


en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_general_election

note that the latest first round poll has Kemal at 50%.  so, again, it is possible he will win TODAY.  i didn't realize how much ground he had gained THIS MONTH.  again, surprising.

[djAdvocate]

ok, state run media just commented.  this is how they are playing it:

1) the race is "too close to call" AND
2) both candidates the opposition expected to get 53%, and it looks like that is "not going to happen".

i actually agree with both of those assessments.  this is promising.  

[djAdvocate]

ok, here comes the stupid talk.  this is from AK headquarters, a voter interview:

"I am afraid. I am worried about him losing. I am worried that someone else will win. I worry because we are Muslims and we wish for someone Muslim to to be our president," said Seda Yavuz.

there are no non-Muslims running, for the record.  what she means is "a Muslim sympathetic to Islamism".  and it is true that 2 of the five candidates are NOT.

[djAdvocate]

Al Jazeera is reporting that Erdogan's vote has fallen below 50% in counting:


www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/5/14/turkey-election-results-live-news-vote-count-under-way


edit: if this is accurate, Erdogan will finish at 49%, about 5% ahead of Kemal.
that would NOT be good for Kemal.  he really needs something closer to a tie.
the remaining opposition candidate is an ally of Erdogan.

[djAdvocate]

big news: the Turkish state run news agency is conceding that this is heading to a runoff.

the bad news is that unless turnout increases, or people shift their vote, Kemal will lose.

so, we will see.  this will be a very tense two weeks.  and probably for some time after.

this is Turkiye's first ever runoff, btw.  so there is no model for what might happen.

[djAdvocate]

i don't think that Kemal has a chance unless the final margin in the first round is less than 3%.  but i could well be wrong.  

my new prediction based on the incoming data is that Kemal ends behind by 4%, not 5.  that means he would need to win nearly all of the remaining vote to win, which seems impossible.

Erdogan is doing about 2% better than i predicted.  and that 2% is probably the game.