weltschmerz
Community Leader
Joined: Jul 25, 2011 13:37:39 GMT -5
Posts: 38,962
|
Post by weltschmerz on May 14, 2023 16:28:56 GMT -5
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,479
|
Post by billisonboard on May 14, 2023 16:29:17 GMT -5
Re runoff election: With about 85% of ballots counted, Ogan, who is an ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had only about 5% of the vote, according to preliminary results reported by state-run news agency Anadolu. That support could make Ogan a potential kingmaker in the runoff. link
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 14, 2023 17:11:48 GMT -5
probably the inevitable loss of power in Iraq and Afghanistan is making the armed forces consider a plan B. i would like to know where the $$ came from.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 14, 2023 17:14:11 GMT -5
this just came over the CNN wire:
The opposition mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, has said he expects Kemal Kilicdaroglu to finish ahead of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
"According to our data, the ratio of officially signed ballot reports is at 69.67%. Proportionally, Kemal Kilicdaroglu's vote is 47.7% and Recep Tayyip Erdogan's vote is at 45.8%," Yavas, a senior member of Kilicdaroglu's opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), told a news conference in the party headquarters in Ankara. "We will wait for the result, it is our duty to seek justice for even one vote."
if this is correct, then i take back my last several posts about the runoff. i think i should shut up now, and wait for the remaining vote to come in.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 14, 2023 17:15:15 GMT -5
PS- this is the first word i have heard from Kemal's campaign in hours, so i WRONGLY assumed they were comfortable with the published tally.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 14, 2023 17:21:39 GMT -5
i just can't hold back.
if the mayor of Ankara is right, his math doesn't work. if the vote REMAINING breaks 7:3 for Kemal, he will still LOSE the first round. but it does leave him in a MUCH better position to win the second round.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 14, 2023 18:58:56 GMT -5
oh boy. here it comes.
Erdogan:
“We believe we will finish this round with over 50% of the votes,” he said.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 16, 2023 18:53:04 GMT -5
|
|
Opti
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 10:45:38 GMT -5
Posts: 39,719
Location: New Jersey
Mini-Profile Name Color: c28523
Mini-Profile Text Color: 990033
|
Post by Opti on May 16, 2023 18:58:40 GMT -5
This does not surprise me. Isn't he known for this?
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 16, 2023 19:08:46 GMT -5
This does not surprise me. Isn't he known for this? yep. but like most leaders, there is a limit to how much he can get away with.
|
|
Opti
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 10:45:38 GMT -5
Posts: 39,719
Location: New Jersey
Mini-Profile Name Color: c28523
Mini-Profile Text Color: 990033
|
Post by Opti on May 16, 2023 19:54:09 GMT -5
This does not surprise me. Isn't he known for this? yep. but like most leaders, there is a limit to how much he can get away with. I do really hope the tide is turning but sometimes it is one step forward, two back until we get forward momentum again.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 16, 2023 20:45:09 GMT -5
yep. but like most leaders, there is a limit to how much he can get away with. I do really hope the tide is turning but sometimes it is one step forward, two back until we get forward momentum again. if Kemal can convince the third party candidate to back him, there is a good chance he will win. i previously expressed doubts about that, because Organ, it is said, is an "ally" of Erdogan. but reading about him, he is for a SECULAR Turkiye. Erdogan is NOT, and Kemal IS. so, it really will boil down to how important that vision of Turkiye is to Organ.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 19, 2023 15:24:30 GMT -5
so, Erdogan is at least not fighting the primary, now.
he won by 4%, but we are heading to a runoff.
there is 6% up for grabs in the runoff, so Kemal needs to win 2/3 of that.
the polling says he will win all of it PLUS some of Erdogan's vote.
i don't see that happening. i think Erdogan wins by about 2%. that is extremely disappointing, and will be widely contested. but it is one thing for the ruling party to contest. it is another for the opposition to contest. unfortunately for Turkiye, this will probably die a quiet death.
|
|
Opti
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 10:45:38 GMT -5
Posts: 39,719
Location: New Jersey
Mini-Profile Name Color: c28523
Mini-Profile Text Color: 990033
|
Post by Opti on May 19, 2023 16:09:57 GMT -5
so, Erdogan is at least not fighting the primary, now. he won by 4%, but we are heading to a runoff. there is 6% up for grabs in the runoff, so Kemal needs to win 2/3 of that. the polling says he will win all of it PLUS some of Erdogan's vote. i don't see that happening. i think Erdogan wins by about 2%. that is extremely disappointing, and will be widely contested. but it is one thing for the ruling party to contest. it is another for the opposition to contest. unfortunately for Turkiye, this will probably die a quiet death. If Kemal does lose, I hope it is by very little. Always hard to tell what is going to happen in close races. Will come down to turnout, voter intimidation, etc. I would like to see Kemal win, but that's up to Türkiye's voters.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 19, 2023 17:00:43 GMT -5
so, Erdogan is at least not fighting the primary, now. he won by 4%, but we are heading to a runoff. there is 6% up for grabs in the runoff, so Kemal needs to win 2/3 of that. the polling says he will win all of it PLUS some of Erdogan's vote. i don't see that happening. i think Erdogan wins by about 2%. that is extremely disappointing, and will be widely contested. but it is one thing for the ruling party to contest. it is another for the opposition to contest. unfortunately for Turkiye, this will probably die a quiet death. If Kemal does lose, I hope it is by very little. Always hard to tell what is going to happen in close races. Will come down to turnout, voter intimidation, etc. I would like to see Kemal win, but that's up to Türkiye's voters. the part of the country most affected by the earthquake is a stronghold of Erdogan. Kemal is strong in urban areas, which is FAR FAR away from the earthquake. HOWEVER, Erdogan is messing with those precincts. so....yeah. this is probably not going to end well. but as l said, it is swimming downstream when the result does NOT unseat Erdogan. it will be much more chaotic if Kemal DOES win. if this sounds like me supporting Erdogan, it is NOT.
|
|
Opti
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 10:45:38 GMT -5
Posts: 39,719
Location: New Jersey
Mini-Profile Name Color: c28523
Mini-Profile Text Color: 990033
|
Post by Opti on May 19, 2023 17:31:32 GMT -5
It was chaotic when Obama won. It will play out however it will. If Kemal does lose, it doesn't stop him from learning lessons from that loss and being more successful next time.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 19, 2023 22:18:42 GMT -5
It was chaotic when Obama won. It will play out however it will. If Kemal does lose, it doesn't stop him from learning lessons from that loss and being more successful next time. true. but keep in mind that Kemal will be 79 in that election. i am really not certain that he should be running at all. and i say that with great reluctance, because i believe that Turkiye needs him.
|
|
Opti
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 10:45:38 GMT -5
Posts: 39,719
Location: New Jersey
Mini-Profile Name Color: c28523
Mini-Profile Text Color: 990033
|
Post by Opti on May 19, 2023 23:02:38 GMT -5
It was chaotic when Obama won. It will play out however it will. If Kemal does lose, it doesn't stop him from learning lessons from that loss and being more successful next time. true. but keep in mind that Kemal will be 79 in that election. i am really not certain that he should be running at all. and i say that with great reluctance, because i believe that Turkiye needs him. What day is the primary? Haven't spoken to my former co-worker yet who is native to Turkey. but apparently my other co-worker I asked about her/this did. I'd love to find out my nurse co-worker's opinion on this, but might not be before the runoff election. I do hope Kemal wins, but just like 2016 and 2020 here, much of it is out of our hands. I can only vote in my state and influence a few local people here and there. At least in Turkiye if you are there, you can try to influence people to vote for Kemal. Will you be living there b4 this runoff election?
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 20, 2023 0:07:45 GMT -5
true. but keep in mind that Kemal will be 79 in that election. i am really not certain that he should be running at all. and i say that with great reluctance, because i believe that Turkiye needs him. What day is the primary? Haven't spoken to my former co-worker yet who is native to Turkey. but apparently my other co-worker I asked about her/this did. I'd love to find out my nurse co-worker's opinion on this, but might not be before the runoff election. I do hope Kemal wins, but just like 2016 and 2020 here, much of it is out of our hands. I can only vote in my state and influence a few local people here and there. At least in Turkiye if you are there, you can try to influence people to vote for Kemal. Will you be living there b4 this runoff election? primary is over. 14th. the runoff election is the 28th.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,479
|
Post by billisonboard on May 20, 2023 7:42:55 GMT -5
Looks like the Parliament election set up an interesting situation for governance, particularly if Erdogan were to lose the Presidential runoff. Those alliances sound like they might be tricky to maintain if tensions rise. 2023 Turkish parliamentary election
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 20, 2023 11:36:45 GMT -5
the runoff election will be held the 28th.
admins: you can combine the OTHER thread with THIS one, as the title of the other thread is no longer relevant!
|
|
moon/Laura
Administrator
Forum Owner
Joined: Dec 17, 2010 15:05:36 GMT -5
Posts: 10,043
Mini-Profile Text Color: f8fb10
|
Post by moon/Laura on May 20, 2023 11:42:58 GMT -5
Note- if this thread seems a little disjointed, it's because DJ asked to have the other thread re: Turkish Primaries merged with this one. It automatically sorts by post date and time so they're all mixed up in here, basically.
~moon/Laura
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 20, 2023 11:46:32 GMT -5
thanks, moon. it puts all of the info in one place!
|
|
haapai
Junior Associate
Character
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 20:40:06 GMT -5
Posts: 5,893
|
Post by haapai on May 20, 2023 14:32:29 GMT -5
dj isn't answering, so I'll pitch in my two cents.
Those rooftops look like runways. Can anyone here tell whether there's enough space to land and launch a Hurkeybird on one or more of them? Is this space designed for Ospreys to operate, or is it merely optimized for multiple helicopters to operate at the same time.
It's definitely a space designed with evacuation in mind. It might look siege-resistant from the ground, but the aerial view shows just how much it was designed to be evacuated from.
This goes well beyond the (often under-used) tennis courts, soccer fields, and volley-ball courts that I remember.
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 21, 2023 11:10:21 GMT -5
haapai- i answered in post 32!
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,479
|
Post by billisonboard on May 24, 2023 8:33:58 GMT -5
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 28, 2023 16:05:33 GMT -5
so, the third party candidate threw his weight behind Erdogan, and the undecided vote split about evenly. Erdogan is going to win by 4%, just like he did in the primary. having dispensed with that, we can assume that Turkiye will continue down the path to authoritarianism, nationalism, and Islamism. the economy will continue to deteriorate, and there is no way in HELL that Turkiye will be allowed to join the UN. in short, it is kinda over for Turkiye until the next election, and possibly far longer. so that is the "bad". the good is that they won't have to endure what might had happened if Erdogan lost. which would have been very chaotic, imo. there is STRONG evidence that he would have pulled a "Trump". so, this will offer some short term stability to Turkiye. sufficient time for me to evaluate my plans.
|
|
billisonboard
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:45:44 GMT -5
Posts: 37,479
|
Post by billisonboard on May 28, 2023 16:17:50 GMT -5
FWIW: As a founding member of the United Nations, Türkiye has actively and significantly contributed to facilitating effective implementation of the UN mandate, ranging from peacekeeping and peace building to improving the lives and livelihoods of the poor world-wide. The UN in Türkiye Perhaps NATO? Nope. Turkey joined NATO in 1952, and has the second-largest military in the alliance after the United States. link djlungrot has me on ignore so someone else would need to check with him to see what he meant. I think I got it: European Union. Bet that is it.
|
|
Opti
Community Leader
Joined: Dec 18, 2010 10:45:38 GMT -5
Posts: 39,719
Location: New Jersey
Mini-Profile Name Color: c28523
Mini-Profile Text Color: 990033
|
Post by Opti on May 28, 2023 16:56:16 GMT -5
so, the third party candidate threw his weight behind Erdogan, and the undecided vote split about evenly. Erdogan is going to win by 4%, just like he did in the primary. having dispensed with that, we can assume that Turkiye will continue down the path to authoritarianism, nationalism, and Islamism. the economy will continue to deteriorate, and there is no way in HELL that Turkiye will be allowed to join the UN. in short, it is kinda over for Turkiye until the next election, and possibly far longer. so that is the "bad". the good is that they won't have to endure what might had happened if Erdogan lost. which would have been very chaotic, imo. there is STRONG evidence that he would have pulled a "Trump". so, this will offer some short term stability to Turkiye. sufficient time for me to evaluate my plans. Malta has far better stats than Turkey and the US. Still thinking of heading there?
|
|
djAdvocate
Member Emeritus
only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
Posts: 75,135
Mini-Profile Background: {"image":"","color":"000307"}
|
Post by djAdvocate on May 28, 2023 17:58:48 GMT -5
so, the third party candidate threw his weight behind Erdogan, and the undecided vote split about evenly. Erdogan is going to win by 4%, just like he did in the primary. having dispensed with that, we can assume that Turkiye will continue down the path to authoritarianism, nationalism, and Islamism. the economy will continue to deteriorate, and there is no way in HELL that Turkiye will be allowed to join the UN. in short, it is kinda over for Turkiye until the next election, and possibly far longer. so that is the "bad". the good is that they won't have to endure what might had happened if Erdogan lost. which would have been very chaotic, imo. there is STRONG evidence that he would have pulled a "Trump". so, this will offer some short term stability to Turkiye. sufficient time for me to evaluate my plans. Malta has far better stats than Turkey and the US. Still thinking of heading there? yep. it is on my "top five" list. i need to revise that list in view of this election, and changes in the situation in quite a few of my possible destinations. for the record, it is quite difficult/expensive to get CITIZENSHIP in Malta, and accessing the medical system is impossible without it.
|
|