Trump’s media company

[billisonboard]

What will happen in the lead-up to the first date he can sell? If people think he will sell a lot or all of his stock, how many will sell to cut their loss before that date?

[djAdvocate]

Sept 3, 2024 13:49:26 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

I'm really interested to see what he does once he's eligible to sell near the end of the month.  Will he unload a bunch and completely tank it?

if he is smart, he will dvmp about 25 million shares.
if he is dumb, he will hold onto all of it, and watch it crater.

edit: it hit an interim low of $17.72 today before bouncing back to $18.25 and closing around $18.  it is unchanged in after hours markets, indicating a steady opening.

i would not count on $18 holding.  there is no floor for this one until it goes to the 52 week low of $14.50

[happyhoix]

Sept 3, 2024 13:49:26 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

I'm really interested to see what he does once he's eligible to sell near the end of the month.  Will he unload a bunch and completely tank it?

Probably. Then find some one to sue over it.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 3, 2024 17:40:01 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Sept 3, 2024 13:49:26 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

I'm really interested to see what he does once he's eligible to sell near the end of the month.  Will he unload a bunch and completely tank it?

Probably. Then find some one to sue over it.

objectively, it is more likely he will get sued- but even that is a long-shot.  that is why i said "buyer beware" earlier in the thread.

[resolution]

It's down to the price it was before the deal to merge with Trump Media. I think it should continue to go lower since truth social should have negative value at this point.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 4, 2024 10:10:07 GMT -5 resolution said:

It's down to the price it was before the deal to merge with Trump Media. I think it should continue to go lower since truth social should have negative value at this point.

....and no prospects for turning that around.

they have a bunch of ideas- like a video platform that has been roundly criticized for being too late, costly, and unlikely to win new users.  the issue with DJT is that it has no expertise in social media on the board.  that is because it is a giant grift machine.  that will be clear very soon, if it is not already clear.

[djAdvocate]

DJT crashed through $17.72 and set a new low below $17 today, before closing above that level, a new post-merger low.

as i said before, the support for this thing (if you believe in such things) is around $14.50 there is literally ZERO support for any price above that level.

LOOK OUT BELOW!!!!

[djAdvocate]

for those of you not keeping track, the stock opened at $46 the day after Trump was shot. in less than two months, it has fallen over 60% from that level, liquidating $6B in investor value. Trump's share is worth over $1B now. by the time he can sell, he might lose his entire stake in the company just to pay his bills.

actually, if he holds too long, it will be worse than that.

[happyhoix]

Sept 3, 2024 21:59:28 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 3, 2024 17:40:01 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Probably. Then find some one to sue over it.

objectively, it is more likely he will get sued- but even that is a long-shot.  that is why i said "buyer beware" earlier in the thread.

I’m sure he’ll get sued over it - but I also have confidence he’ll find someone or some thing to sic his lawyers on. His ability to cast himself as a victim is practically limitless. 

Of course, it will probably get tossed out of court, he won’t pay his lawyers, and he’ll bog the courts down with motions, probably until he dies. He legal habits are so well known at this point. 

Sad. 

[minnesotapaintlady]

I have so enjoyed watching this stock tank.

It's not only what Trump decides to do in as little as two weeks once he's eligible to sell, but what are the other major shareholders that are also blocked until then going to do?

"A Florida judge has denied a motion by Donald Trump’s Truth Social to block the sale of 18 million shares by two of the company’s co-founders, determining that the company would not suffer irreparable harm and that any potential damage could be addressed through financial compensation. The ruling came from Sarasota County Circuit Judge Hunter Carroll on Friday, who dismissed Truth Social’s arguments for a temporary injunction.

"Truth Social, officially known as Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (TMTG), sought to prevent Arc Global Investments II LLC and United Atlantic Ventures LLC from selling their shares when a lock-up restriction expires on September 19."

www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2024/08/31/trump-media-stock-djtdisgruntled-18m-shares-join-the-great-unlocking/

[Opti]

From your URL, it looks like the "we can do it but you can't defense" is no longer working even in FL courtrooms.

"Kevin Jacobs, representing Arc Global, argued that the temporary injunction was akin to an impermissible asset freeze under Florida law. The defense also highlighted that TMTG recently issued 37 million shares to another entity for unrestricted market sale, undermining claims that the company would be significantly harmed by the sale of 18 million shares."

[djAdvocate]

interesting.

these suits have to be engendered by shareholders to have standing. my impression is that DJT investors are MAGA. therefore, i doubt that a suit will be brought that will prevent him from selling his shares.

my hope is that he uses the sale to pay off NY, and ends up with a minority stake in DJT. that would mean that he could not be in a position to block a merger, if it comes, which would be hilarious.

[dondubble]

Sept 5, 2024 10:17:38 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

I have so enjoyed watching this stock tank.

It's not only what Trump decides to do in as little as two weeks once he's eligible to sell, but what are the other major shareholders that are also blocked until then going to do?

"A Florida judge has denied a motion by Donald Trump’s Truth Social to block the sale of 18 million shares by two of the company’s co-founders, determining that the company would not suffer irreparable harm and that any potential damage could be addressed through financial compensation. The ruling came from Sarasota County Circuit Judge Hunter Carroll on Friday, who dismissed Truth Social’s arguments for a temporary injunction.

"Truth Social, officially known as Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (TMTG), sought to prevent Arc Global Investments II LLC and United Atlantic Ventures LLC from selling their shares when a lock-up restriction expires on September 19."

www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2024/08/31/trump-media-stock-djtdisgruntled-18m-shares-join-the-great-unlocking/

Hmmmm…the judges first name is Hunter. Just sayin’.

[minnesotapaintlady]

A Yahoo Finance discussion comment:

"Maybe Trump is the guy to bring down inflation in the US. After all, he took DJT from $70/share to under $19 in just weeks!"

[djAdvocate]

Sept 5, 2024 14:42:30 GMT -5 dondubble said:

Sept 5, 2024 10:17:38 GMT -5 minnesotapaintlady said:

I have so enjoyed watching this stock tank.

It's not only what Trump decides to do in as little as two weeks once he's eligible to sell, but what are the other major shareholders that are also blocked until then going to do?

www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2024/08/31/trump-media-stock-djtdisgruntled-18m-shares-join-the-great-unlocking/

Hmmmm…the judges first name is Hunter. Just sayin’.

sounds like someone else is going to tank the stock first!
i just noticed that DJT only has $70M cash on hand.
that is less than a year at their current burnout rate.

[happyhoix]

So will Trump go ahead and cash out as soon as possible to be able to capture some of the money - knowing that if he does that, everyone else will probably also pull their money out as soon as they can, with bankruptcy the ultimate destination, or will he not want his media company to go bankrupt this close to the election, when the Dems could make a lot of hay taunting him as a serial bankrupted?

What are they changes he gets lavish stock buys from foreign investors eager to curry favor with the potential next president?

[djAdvocate]

Sept 8, 2024 11:15:20 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

So will Trump go ahead and cash out as soon as possible to be able to capture some of the money - knowing that if he does that, everyone else will probably also pull their money out as soon as they can, with bankruptcy the ultimate destination, or will he not want his media company to go bankrupt this close to the election, when the Dems could make a lot of hay taunting him as a serial bankrupted?

What are the changes he gets lavish stock buys from foreign investors eager to curry favor with the potential next president?

his media company won't go bankrupt before the election.  he has enough reserves to make it through mid-2025.

i think the chances of him getting lavish stock buybacks are zero.  but i think he will be able to exit the stock at or above $14.50 per share.  if he is smart, he will do that, because holding this stock for the long term is a loser for him.  but then again, i will never tire of him losing, so ultimately, i don't care.  but i do recognize DJT as a huge conduit for grift for him, as well.

[djAdvocate]

side note: if it were ME (and it is not, it is Trump), i would recognize THREE simple things:

1) cash today is worth more than cash tomorrow
2) DJT is probably going to go bankrupt, and when it does, the stock will be worthless, so the best time to sell is now.
3) if he had the cash to pay his judgments, he could appeal them easily.

i think that trifecta gets him out to the tune of 20-30M shares. keep in mind that it won't reduce his stake in the company, because he made a 36 million share "earnout bonus" when the stock stayed above $17.50 for 20 consecutive days (it has stayed above that level for almost 200 days). it will just bring him back to where he was before the bonus.

again, that is me. that is the smart thing to do. let's see if he is smart or not. i think he is smart. about his money, and little else.

[thyme4change]

Went down again after the debate.

Down to 16 bucks.

How is this election so close??

[djAdvocate]

Sept 12, 2024 15:20:26 GMT -5 thyme4change said:

Went down again after the debate.

Down to 16 bucks.

How is this election so close?[img src="https://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff155/JiminiChristmas/ymamsmiles/idunno.gif" class="smile" src="//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png" alt=""]?

i have two answers for you.

1) a large majority of the US public doesn't really start paying attention to this stuff until after Labor Day.  so, this is really early in the "non-political class voting season".
2) it is tough to leave a cult*.

*i can elaborate, if you wish.

[djAdvocate]

the chart for this stock is quite telling.

DJT had been rallying for one week prior to the debate, pulling from a low of $16.75 up to about $19-20.

the first trade on Wednesday was at $15.75. that is about a 20% gap on open. it covered back to the previous low, and was down again today, this time to $15.50, which is exactly $1 ahead of my predicted interim low (which i think it hits in the next week).

the news only gets worse, as Trump is allowed to sell shares starting the 20th. he has to file first, of course. but i expect that notice to go out any day now.

[thyme4change]

Trump announced he wouldn’t sell and the stock ticked up.

Lord knows he would never lie about something like that.

[djAdvocate]

that comment got him about half a billion dollars in equity. of course, half of that was gone in the next hour. but still. pretty amazing how much money he can make (on paper) spewing bullshit.

[djAdvocate]

PS- either he is telling the truth, and he is dumb, or he is lying, and he is smart.

candidly, i am not sure which it is, in this case.

[pulmonarymd]

There is no doubt he will it as soon as he can, because anyone who holds on to it will be taking a huge loss. Have to keep grifting

[tallguy]

Sept 13, 2024 17:42:30 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

PS- either he is telling the truth, and he is dumb, or he is lying, and he is smart.

candidly, i am not sure which it is, in this case.

Doesn't he still have to file the intent to sell before he can actually do it, even after the lockout date?  Still would be time for the stock to crash if that is true.  

[djAdvocate]

Sept 14, 2024 20:57:16 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Sept 13, 2024 17:42:30 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

PS- either he is telling the truth, and he is dumb, or he is lying, and he is smart.

candidly, i am not sure which it is, in this case.

Doesn't he still have to file the intent to sell before he can actually do it, even after the lockout date?  Still would be time for the stock to crash if that is true.  

yeah.  and let's be clear- he doesn't give fuck one about retail investors.  he is getting their shirts one way or another.  only 7% of the shares are held by retail investors.  he is not beholding to them at all.

[tallguy]

Sept 14, 2024 22:12:55 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 14, 2024 20:57:16 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Doesn't he still have to file the intent to sell before he can actually do it, even after the lockout date?  Still would be time for the stock to crash if that is true.  

yeah.  and let's be clear- he doesn't give fuck one about retail investors.  he is getting their shirts one way or another.  only 7% of the shares are held by retail investors.  he is not beholding to them at all.

True, but there are other insiders who hold a number of shares.  They could help tank the price.  Trump holds what after the secondary grant, 60%?  That would leave about a third of the outstanding shares available if everybody bails.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 14, 2024 22:22:12 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Sept 14, 2024 22:12:55 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

yeah.  and let's be clear- he doesn't give fuck one about retail investors.  he is getting their shirts one way or another.  only 7% of the shares are held by retail investors.  he is not beholding to them at all.

True, but there are other insiders who hold a number of shares.  They could help tank the price.  Trump holds what after the secondary grant, 60%?  That would leave about a third of the outstanding shares available if everybody bails.

insiders are 67%, institutions are 26%.  Trump is almost all of the 67%.  he is mostly hurting himself, which is perfect.


finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/holders/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHxj_uilJCWklq4PpBVgXM_GuJTx0O1sJUrG0m6vUnOT1YgU6EiyXBr1fZinJR5JCEWJPvlBjCo2Q-IGISk_QRZ_u4LHzzG7EBfXiGqEzV88xvKYAhm6fCXf2cKtoGAgHFW52L3bwqesN5qefuLsXihc6pTKLt0K6cNATZJ8L44F

[tallguy]

I was surprised that institutions held such a large percentage.  Didn't even think about index funds that basically had to buy it to reflect the index.  

Hope they at least hated having to do it.