Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Sept 2, 2021 15:29:20 GMT -5
It looks like electric cars will be the norm by 2035 (maybe even 2030). How about some brainstorming/hivemind ideas? Do you need to start preparing for the change over to electric? How will this change homes (will they need a charging station? Will having solar panels help keep the cost of electricity in a reasonable range considering it's also charging one's vehicle?) Something else? When do you think we will see the change over? How will this change "gas stations"? Here's the long story: If the preponderance of personal vehicles on the road are electric by say 2035 (14-15 years away) does it mean I will be charging my car at home and should this mean I should be looking into adding solar panels to my house? Not that the solar panels will charge my vehicle for "free" but rather that it might help keep my cost of electricity down? www.bbc.com/news/business-57253947 My current vehicle is 10 years old - I expect to drive it for another 3 to 5 years. I will be 60 to 62y when I purchase my next vehicle (which may be electric). It's highly likely I will be driving an electric vehicle before I am too old to drive. I can see someone buying a new gas powered car in the next 2 to 3 years who will then be faced with replacing it in 10 to 15 years with an electric car. I'm guessing once only electric cars are available for sale - gas powered "everyday driver" cars will go by the wayside fairly quickly (within 10 years).
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resolution
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Post by resolution on Sept 2, 2021 17:25:06 GMT -5
I live on a busy road, so we have some road noise and the front of our house gets dirty from the exhaust. I am wondering if the switch to electric will alleviate some of this or delivery trucks and such will still be diesel.
My current vehicle is 2 years old and has under 10k miles on it. My husband's truck is 15 years old, but its a compact truck which apparently they don't make anymore, so we plan to keep it as long as possible. I am hoping to hold out on replacing my car until there is some real self driving functionality, so it will likely be after they are all electric. The truck may not last that long, and will probably be replaced with another gas powered truck.
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sesfw
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Post by sesfw on Sept 2, 2021 18:59:00 GMT -5
I think electric vehicles will be the norm in the future. Right now they need to develop a battery that isn't so expensive, and I know that will come.
People, and myself, that I have talked to say it's cost right now. I know the cost will come down and the vehicles will get larger. Definitely in the future.
If I live that long, I will be beyond the driving stage of my life.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2021 19:03:36 GMT -5
I'm a household of one and electric vehicles as they are now are a second car. They don't have the range I need for road trips so I'd have to rent a gas vehicle for those. That could change in the future, I know, but when I'm doing a day-long drive from KC to just past Nashville I don't want to stop for a long recharge session. I'm not crazy enough about cars to own two.
I'm also on the fence about solar power whether to charge the car or any other purpose. Most of these deals involve taking out a giant loan to install them and supposedly you save more than enough on your electric bill to pay on the loan. No guarantees and when you sell the house someone has to pay off the loan- either you or the buyer takes on a new loan for the balance.
We're also going to need to change the tax structure since electric vehicle drivers don't pay gasoline taxes so they don't support the roads and bridges they use.
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Sept 3, 2021 0:43:00 GMT -5
A vision of a country with only electric vehicles is unrealistic. Due to the lengthy charge times required by electric vehicles, a completely electric vehicle is really suitable only for fairly short trips (less than 200 to 300 miles), not for long distances (in the range of 750 to 1,000 miles per day).
By my best estimate, it would take about twice as long to drive from LA to New York in an electric car vs. a fossil fuel powered vehicle. Using current rapid charging technology, it takes about 30 minutes to rapid charge an electric vehicle battery to 80% of capacity (delivering a driving range of about 200 miles). To charge the battery to 100% of capacity takes several hours. There is hopeful speculation that improved battery/charging technology some decades in the future might be able to reduce charging time to 10 minutes. But you would still have a fairly limited driving range. By comparison, today less than 5 minutes at the gas pump provides a driving range of about 400 miles in most passenger vehicles.
Fortunately it’s not a one or the other situation. Hybrid vehicles combined with improvements in battery and charging technology may make long distance travel by personal vehicle more carbon efficient in the future.
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buystoys
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Post by buystoys on Sept 3, 2021 7:42:54 GMT -5
It's going to take a lot of massive infrastructure change to have electric cars be the primary mode of transportation. One example: every hotel will need to have multiple charging stations put in. They're not going to be able to get away with a small number if they're a sizeable hotel. They'll need to have enough to service all their guests. I can't even imagine the cost of just that one item. We'd have to run power to our carport in a different spot than we currently use. That will be difficult as we have blown insulation in the attic and someone would have to crawl through all that to run the wires. We'd have to upgrade and move one outlet and then run a second outlet to the other side of the car port. Can it be done? Of course. I don't think it would be cheap to do, though.
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Regis
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Post by Regis on Sept 3, 2021 7:53:29 GMT -5
For the reasons stated above, I don't see total electric vehicles being the norm in ten years. However, my next vehicle will most likely be a hybrid.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Sept 3, 2021 8:31:36 GMT -5
I have a Tesla model S, bought late 2017 and love it! We already had a 240 outlet in garage, Jerseyguy used it for occasionally welding. Also have Tesla super chargers, 10, in a strip mall with Acme grocery store that I use. So I charge up when I’m grocery shopping. When I bought, Tesla was still encouraging people to buy by giving them free supercharging for life of car. So free for me, I don’t know how much others pay. Before the supercharger station was put in, I charged overnight and probably cost about $10/month. I have about 230 miles/charge newer models more like 260. The two 100 mike trips I regularly take, I charge up on way home at supercharger stations at gas stations on the way home, both have big CVS and restaurants, nail salons etc. So I usually go for restroom break and buy something to eat or drink. Takes about 20 minutes. Most supercharger stations here in NJ have 10 places and always available positions. So infrastructure already starting. In California where there are many Teslas there are supercharger stations with at least 30 positions and some kind of restaurant or quick checkbtype store. I have the Tesla app on my phone and also in car where you can find nearest supercharger and how many free positions. So for me, charging is simple Electric cars also require much less maintenance, no oil changes and mechanics are much simpler so fewer parts to break, Braking is regenerative so adds energy back. Also when you take your foot off the accelerator, the car slows so much less need for using brakes - less need for brake maintenance and replacement. In the almost 4 years I’ve owned the car, the only maintenance is replacing battery in the fob And it’s so fun to drive, acceleration is fantastic and smooth / no gears. I usually don’t use the assisted driving, I find it boring and I enjoy driving. Buying the car was simple. I took test drives in the model S and Y, the SUV with the gull wing doors. Doors are supercool but I don’t need the size. The model Y is heavy enough to qualify for BIG tax deduction if you have a business. I did get the $7500 deduction from sales price So no traditional show rooms. I bought from Tesla store in the Short Hills mall. Took the test drives with cars kept in mall garage. Just sit with rep and choose model, colors, wheel types etc if you want other than the basics. All a set price so no negotiation. Then your car is built with messages sent about progress and date. Mine took about a month. When delivered I went to big Tesla service center in Paramus about 15 miles away. The rep gives a tutorial about the car systems and will go with you for a test drive. Tesla took care of the registration, license etc Think you can return within 3 days for no costs So the future- driving range is increasing with newer models, more companies and competition. Much bigger change was from horses to cars than internal combustion to electric
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Sept 3, 2021 9:17:47 GMT -5
I have a shit ton of money invested in electric car companies and companies that provide the infrastructure for electric vehicles. As 2030 is around my estimated retirement date, I’m hoping electric cars are ubiquitous by then.
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giramomma
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Post by giramomma on Sept 3, 2021 9:21:22 GMT -5
Part of my job is to provide education to those in the auto industry.
Last year, our IAB was pretty ho-hum on electric vehicles. This year, our IAB requested that courses on electric vehicles be required in our curriculum. That's a pretty big shift. We have 15 different companies on our IAB. I don't know them off hand, but one of the "Big 3" is on there.
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tractor
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Post by tractor on Sept 3, 2021 9:22:12 GMT -5
I don't think we will ever be 100% electric. However, how many Americans drive less than 50 miles a day? I'd guess 60%? That's a lot of EV vehicles that could help reduce air pollutants.
The next challenge will be how to charge them. Most urban dwellers don't have garages, much less a place to plug them in overnight. I suspect it will take some time for the buildout to happen, but we will get there.
There's billions of dollars to be spent over the next 10-15 years to build out the infrastructure, and the process has already started. Early estimates of quick adoption and overestimated, but even if we move the needle a little more, it's progress.
I'm might get an EV next, however, with a 120 mile round trip daily commute, in a cold climate, a decent range is needed. We have chargers at the office now, so that helps with the back-forth driving, but any business travel will require more planning and/or another vehicle to be feasible.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Sept 3, 2021 11:06:10 GMT -5
I see that "trip length" is an issue. Would this be where train or some other sort of "public transportation" service would pick up the slack? If you were traveling for business - would you take a train or bus or something else? to your destination "area" and then rent an electric car while you are there? I know "America" in general is pro-car and anti-mass transit (be it quick train service between large cities in the same geographical area or across the country). I'm guessing that with the advent and adoption of being able to work from anywhere that a long train ride (maybe 24 hours or less) wouldn't necessarily mean a "lost day" of work. So long distance business (and vacation) travel by trains might make a come back. I know America doesn't have the infrastructure for this and no "big company" or "support" to get it done. So it's probably not a good option as it would need Federal help and it would require States to work together. And we seem to be in a "every State for themselves" frame of mind these days. So some big Marketing and getting American minds to make a paradigm shift would need to happen.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Sept 3, 2021 13:01:44 GMT -5
US doesn’t have high speed trains like Europe, Japan or China. So don’t see this type of train travel but continued air flights between cities. But agree, for longer trips use train or air with electric car rental - no difference than using ICE (internal combustion engine) cars Right now I don’t drive if trip is more than 250 miles one way so electric car range is fine with this. For longer, need to use super chargers, maybe 30 -40 minutes instead of 15 minutes for gas fill? So stop, get something to eat and bathroom break can be done while charging. It’s unusual for people to commute more than 50 miles each way so with charging at home or at work fine with charge filled at 250 miles. I’ve charged at supercharger site in westchester whike visiting son. He doesn’t have charger. Met folks from Manhattan who live in apartments and go there to charge. It’s in a mall so they grocery or other shop. Would be great to have high speed trains but don’t see it happening with the federal and state red tape and property rights. To build anything in the US requires huge effort and time and money to deal with the myriad of environmental and regulatory issues
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2021 8:30:02 GMT -5
I see that "trip length" is an issue. Would this be where train or some other sort of "public transportation" service would pick up the slack? If you were traveling for business - would you take a train or bus or something else? to your destination "area" and then rent an electric car while you are there? There's a limit to how much time I can stand on a train. I've used them a lot in Europe- never had the guts to rent a car- and they were fine but the only overnights I took, I didn't sleep well. When I lived in NJ it was a no-brainer to take the train to Philadelphia or DC. I tried it once for Boston and it was about 5 hours- that was getting to be too long, although I was VERY glad to have used that option when a bad snowstorm in Boston messed up the trip home for many of my colleagues. So- higher-speed would work between major cities. It's not much of an option now except on the NE corridor.
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finnime
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Post by finnime on Sept 4, 2021 11:43:11 GMT -5
I'm very happy driving our 2013 Prius hybrid. On a recent trip to Maine we got 48 mpg. More than that in-town, where we can often drive EV only: up to 65 mpg. The default is to the most efficient method given the speed being maintained. EV only is something I can envision and have no doubt manufacturers will create long-lasting batteries that are increasingly small, requiring a charge maybe once per day.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Sept 4, 2021 12:02:26 GMT -5
I'm very happy driving our 2013 Prius hybrid. On a recent trip to Maine we got 48 mpg. More than that in-town, where we can often drive EV only: up to 65 mpg. The default is to the most efficient method given the speed being maintained. EV only is something I can envision and have no doubt manufacturers will create long-lasting batteries that are increasingly small, requiring a charge maybe once per day. Already have batteries that charge once/day or more likely only need 2-3 times/week Full charge already 250 miles on my Tesla S, if say 2 way commute is 100 miles (which is more than most) then every other day charging would be fine. With a smaller commute or a commute to a Mall or Company with a charger then also easy. Most malls and bigger companies already have chargers available. I have an in home charger using a 240 line already in my garage so I can easily charge overnight.
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busymom
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Post by busymom on Sept 4, 2021 12:09:48 GMT -5
My concern with electric vehicles, especially here in the Midwest, is how they perform on a very cold day. Sometimes a "normal" car won't start when it's 30 below. How reliable will a fully battery operated car be in the month of February? I'll wait until most of my neighbors get one first.
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jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on Sept 4, 2021 12:15:27 GMT -5
My concern with electric vehicles, especially here in the Midwest, is how they perform on a very cold day. Sometimes a "normal" car won't start when it's 30 below. How reliable will a fully battery operated car be in the month of February? I'll wait until most of my neighbors get one first. Visited my son in westchester and parked outside in 0 degree weather for 4 days. No problems but I was surprised that regenerative braking wasn’t working till car ran about 10 miles as it was cold. So had to use regular braking , same thing use the brake pedal but with regenerative braking just taking foot off accelerator the car slows down without applying foot to brake (and adds energy back to battery) I never have lived where it’s 30 below!!!
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mollyc
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Post by mollyc on Sept 4, 2021 12:30:19 GMT -5
My concern with electric vehicles, especially here in the Midwest, is how they perform on a very cold day. Sometimes a "normal" car won't start when it's 30 below. How reliable will a fully battery operated car be in the month of February? I'll wait until most of my neighbors get one first. When Tesla did the promotion for the Tesla Truck, one of the commenters on the article was from my city. In response to someone else, he said he was happy with his car's performance even in winter and that he would buy one of the trucks if/when a heavy duty version came out. His business was all in the city so he didn't need to worry about distance. He didn't provide any more details so I don't know if the car was kept in a driveway, a heated garage or something inbetween. I just looked it up and electric cars can come with a system that works like a block heater to keep everything from freezing up. The only issue is that currently batteries can't hold their charge as well in low temperatures so you get less distance.
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mollyc
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Post by mollyc on Sept 4, 2021 12:39:46 GMT -5
The closest I've ever come to a new car was when we bought the Impala. We were both working still so we could afford the payments. It was a former lease that still had 1 year/120,000 kms on its original 3 year/can't remember the kms warranty. Which was a good thing because we had a couple of major problems that first year that the warranty covered.
Unless hybrids or electric cars are worth buying second hand, I doubt I will ever own one. 2030 is the year I've set to retire and a new vehicle is just never going to be in the budget. I've driven a couple of hybrid rental cars and quite liked them.
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azucena
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Post by azucena on Sept 4, 2021 20:32:06 GMT -5
Neighbor has tesla. He commutes 50 to 60 mins each way so it makes sense for him. Installing charger in garage didn't seem to be an issue. They take the minivan for long trips so it's really just his commuter car. No problem in winter in garage in Stl. He's super happy with it and will never go back. DH talks to him about it all the time but we each commute 10 mins.
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Sept 5, 2021 13:28:46 GMT -5
I don't think we will ever be 100% electric. However, how many Americans drive less than 50 miles a day? I'd guess 60%? That's a lot of EV vehicles that could help reduce air pollutants. The next challenge will be how to charge them. Most urban dwellers don't have garages, much less a place to plug them in overnight. I suspect it will take some time for the buildout to happen, but we will get there. There's billions of dollars to be spent over the next 10-15 years to build out the infrastructure, and the process has already started. Early estimates of quick adoption and overestimated, but even if we move the needle a little more, it's progress. I'm might get an EV next, however, with a 120 mile round trip daily commute, in a cold climate, a decent range is needed. We have chargers at the office now, so that helps with the back-forth driving, but any business travel will require more planning and/or another vehicle to be feasible. Tractor, good point about urban dwellers who use on street parking and the like. Your comment about cold climates caused me to think about the impact of cold weather on battery capacity. Cold weather reduces the “capacity” of batteries. Then you have to consider the draw on the car’s batteries from running heaters. I’m thinking that on a 20 below January day in Minneapolis or Minot, your normal 250 mile driving range would be reduced to something like 50 or 60 miles.
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on Sept 5, 2021 18:27:23 GMT -5
We have a lot of electric vehicles in town, mostly Teslas. The infrastructure is being built where I live, and so many of our trips are local that it does make sense for one of our cars at least to be electric. We are not planning on jumping anytime soon though.
When we drove across the country in 2019, I specifically looked for charging stations. There were incredibly long stretches of highway where there were none, unlike going up or down I-5.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 5, 2021 20:21:12 GMT -5
I have thought about this a lot - but have no real knowledge.
The first thing that has to happen is for the standard battery to have a range of 300+ miles. And, they would need that range on all types of vehicles- including a large pick up truck loaded with tools and pulling a trailer. As weight is a consideration in today's EVs, I am not sure how long away that is.
The second thing would be that anywhere someone sleeps would have to have charging stations. Hotels, apartments, houses, hospitals, etc. Given that most cars charge in 2-3 hours, maybe there could be technology where you can plug in multiple cars and they could charge in a queue or some other clever technology that would allow the charger to be active without human intervention at 3 am or whatever.
Level 2 chargers could also be encouraged at offices, factories, schools and other places people work a full shift. So if you live in a place that doesn't have chargers, you could still get charged predictably and reliably. You can also put them in restaurants, shopping and theaters.
The third thing would be installation of level 3 chargers in places you can stop on a road trip and eat. Level 3 would also have to improve a bit. Sitting at 5 guys for 30 minutes in the middle of a 6 hour journey wouldn't be a tragedy for travelers. If you know that charging stations are ubiquitous as gas stations are now, you can make choices. Level 3s are pretty fast, but not quite fast enough. I got a full charge in like 20 minutes. Granted I have a short range and I wasn't fully drained - but I was still surprised how fast it charged.
I love my electric car - but hate that I can't road trip. My family's mountain house is 120 miles, all uphill. My sister takes her Tesla up. There is a Super charger at the grocery store, so they recharge while buying groceries. I haven't found even a level 2 charger in that town. My Dad said that we could re-purpose the circuit he has for a dryer (we never installed laundry up there - but the 240 is there.) But even then, I need a car that gets miles double or triple what my car gets before I head up that hill.
I don't think all of that will happen in 8 or even 12 years. I do see that it will be a viable option for many people in 10 years. And even more viable for families that own two cars - they can have one road trip car with gas, and the other be electric.
I love driving electric - so quiet and zippy. No smell, no standing at the gas pump when it is 100 degrees (and gas stinks too!) I am excited for the technology to just get better and better.
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saveinla
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Post by saveinla on Sept 5, 2021 21:16:12 GMT -5
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 6, 2021 10:49:35 GMT -5
I would love for us to have more long distance, fast, ground options, but there is a pretty big catch. If you are going to a place that doesn't have decent local public transportation, you need a car when you get there. Right now, rental rates for cars is so high, it would make no sense for my family to pay for 4 tickets on a high speed train, and then rent a car and drive around. We go to LA quite a bit - it costs us ~$200 in gas, round trip. I know there is wear and tear on cars, and blah, blah, whatever - the fact is out of pocket for something like this would be thousands - assuming we stay for a week. That is why we drive instead of buying tickets for the extremely short and fairly inexpensive flight. Now, create a pod where we could put our car on it - like one of those ferries- and it starts making sense.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Sept 7, 2021 15:00:21 GMT -5
If they start putting charging stations in places where people spend a lot of time, like near a group of restaurants, gyms, and of course at peoples workplaces, that would help the folks who don’t have a garage be able to charge conveniently. For example, the local fitness center by me has a few charging stations.
I could definitely see a lot of couples having one electric car and another gas/hybrid car. .
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Sept 7, 2021 16:20:41 GMT -5
When you "road trip" do you really drive 15 hours (65mph *15 hours = 975 miles approximately - probably fewer.)?
If electric charging stations were common (and if it really does take about 20 minutes to fully charge a vehicle) could you just plan your "go pee, get food, and stretch your legs stops" every 2 to 3 hours? Don't most cars get about 250 to 300 miles to a full tank of gas? (I do mostly city driving so I get between 23 and 30 miles per gallon with a little highway driving thrown in every week. )
FWIW: The only "road trips" I have been in the 150 to 300 miles range. We drove straight thru (1 pee break) on the 300 mile trip and I was ready to "kill people" by the time we got to our destination - I was tired, headachy, stiff, grumpy, and ANGRY (as in She Hulk anger) for some reason. The people I traveled with were not the source of the ANGER. I can't imagine a 10 or 15 hour drive time... I can't sleep in the car (or airplane or bus).
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 7, 2021 20:53:42 GMT -5
When you "road trip" do you really drive 15 hours (65mph *15 hours = 975 miles approximately - probably fewer.)? If electric charging stations were common (and if it really does take about 20 minutes to fully charge a vehicle) could you just plan your "go pee, get food, and stretch your legs stops" every 2 to 3 hours? Don't most cars get about 250 to 300 miles to a full tank of gas? (I do mostly city driving so I get between 23 and 30 miles per gallon with a little highway driving thrown in every week. ) FWIW: The only "road trips" I have been in the 150 to 300 miles range. We drove straight thru (1 pee break) on the 300 mile trip and I was ready to "kill people" by the time we got to our destination - I was tired, headachy, stiff, grumpy, and ANGRY (as in She Hulk anger) for some reason. The people I traveled with were not the source of the ANGER. I can't imagine a 10 or 15 hour drive time... I can't sleep in the car (or airplane or bus). Yup - I know plenty of people who have taken their Tesla on road trips. They stop in the same places that a regular car would stop for gas (and people stop for food and to pee). But, you do kinda have to go and sit and eat, instead of grabbing something and eating in the car. That would be no skin off my nose - I have stopped eating in the car. But, you are limited to the restaurants that are near the charging station. That is why I think you ask Burger King and Starbucks to electrify a couple of spots in their parking lot. Win-win-win!!
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bookkeeper
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Post by bookkeeper on Sept 8, 2021 7:42:55 GMT -5
I live in farm country and it's hard to put a big round bale in a Prius. Electric vehicles are handy for moving people around on short trips, but are not appropriate for hauling any kind of load. For that reason, I don't see combustion engines disappearing any time soon.
Our house in AZ is in an area that is being developed for electric vehicle manufacturing. It is exciting to watch the technology develop and the associated jobs and infrastructure that will be brought to the area. When I bought the AZ house, compressed natural gas was being promoted as the next best thing as an alternative to unleaded or diesel. I don't see many vehicles on the road anymore advertising the compressed natural gas fuel source. There used to be a cab company that promoted CNG used in their vehicles.
Most electricity is produced in this country from natural gas or coal. Solar and wind energy make up a small percentage of the total generation. If America moves to a larger percentage of electric vehicles, we will also need to ramp up electric generation. It takes 10 years to bring a power plant from the design stage to producing power. We will need more electric generation plants, however, no one wants it built in their back yard. Technology moves pretty fast, in the 10 years it takes to build a power plant, will transportation technology have another power source that is not electricity? With no national energy policy, there are a lot of unknowns with regard to the electric grid. As illustrated in Texas last winter.
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