haapai
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Joined: Dec 20, 2010 20:40:06 GMT -5
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Post by haapai on Aug 3, 2020 12:07:47 GMT -5
I believe that the same conditions that create a large under-count of confirmed cases i.e. and overwhelmed healthcare system and rationing of tests tend to also lead to under-reporting of probable cases. Bluntly put, when things get overwhelmed, the dead do not get reported as probable COVID deaths unless there are some pretty good reasons to think that it was COVID -- like a history of symptoms or known exposure to a confirmed COVID case.
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swamp
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Joined: Dec 19, 2010 16:03:22 GMT -5
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Post by swamp on Aug 3, 2020 12:14:13 GMT -5
No matter how it's tracked, some idiots are still convinced this is a hoax and it's not a serious virus.
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pulmonarymd
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Joined: Feb 12, 2020 17:40:54 GMT -5
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Post by pulmonarymd on Aug 3, 2020 12:33:35 GMT -5
Lack of testing will lead to an undercount of infections, as well as an undercount of deaths. Infections will be undercounted as mild infections will not fit criteria for testing, as the tests need to be reserved for more severely ill people. In addition, if we do not test widely enough, since this disease has a large number of asymptomatic carriers who spread the disease, we will not have a complete picture of the penetration of the disease in a population. In severe disease, again, if testing is not is not available, or unavailable in a timely manner, we can only presume people have the disease. This will lead to an undercount. For example, if people in a nursing home are tested, and the results take 10 days to come back, someone can be dead and the death certificate will be completed before the test results return. Unless the medical examiner corrects the death certificate, that death is not confirmed. Finally, as the MS situation illustrates, if test kits are unavailable to coroners, the cannot test people who dies out of the hospital, so, unless an autopsy is done, and the cause of death can be determined from that, those cases can be missed.
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