How do they count Covid deaths?

[pulmonarymd]

Jul 28, 2020 13:16:50 GMT -5 @x said:

Jul 28, 2020 10:41:02 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

 Just venting about the lack of critical thinking in the US population.---------------- We truly are in trouble if Trump is re-elected, because this nonsense will just get worse

Slippery slope fallacy.

Lack of critical thinking indeed.  

Wondering when you would try to provoke a response from me. I guess you enjoy it for some reason. Take care.

[Deleted]

Jul 28, 2020 13:44:18 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Jul 28, 2020 13:16:50 GMT -5 @x said:

Slippery slope fallacy.

Lack of critical thinking indeed.  

Wondering when you would try to provoke a response from me. I guess you enjoy it for some reason. Take care.

Reminds me of your first time on this forum when you singled out O.C. and me.  (I guess you enjoyed it for some reason)

I enjoy being correct.    

I couldn't care less about provocation.


Have a great day.

[NastyWoman]

Jul 28, 2020 13:48:38 GMT -5 @x said:

Jul 28, 2020 13:44:18 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Wondering when you would try to provoke a response from me. I guess you enjoy it for some reason. Take care.

Reminds me of your first time on this forum when you singled out O.C. and me.  (I guess you enjoyed it for some reason)

I enjoy being correct.    

I couldn't care less about provocation.


Have a great day.

I'm so sorry that you are correct so seldom in life that you need to post here - where you still are not succeeding

[Tiny]

Jul 28, 2020 13:48:38 GMT -5 @x said:

Jul 28, 2020 13:44:18 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Wondering when you would try to provoke a response from me. I guess you enjoy it for some reason. Take care.

Reminds me of your first time on this forum when you singled out O.C. and me.  (I guess you enjoyed it for some reason)

I enjoy being correct.    

I couldn't care less about provocation.


Have a great day.

Correct?   I feel like you are grasping at straws with that accusation of "slippery slope" 
From the wikipedia: 

A slippery slope argument (SSA), in logic, critical thinking, political rhetoric, and caselaw, is often viewed as a logical fallacy   
[1] in which a party asserts that a relatively small first step leads to a chain of related events culminating in some significant (usually negative) effect.

[2] The core of the slippery slope argument is that a specific decision under debate is likely to result in unintended consequences.

Trump has been President for 4 years ... so another  4 years isn't a "small first step" 
 
And the point being debated is the "lack of critical thinking" CURRENTLY happening will continue/get worse if Trump is elected again   that's not an unintended consequence....  

So, how is the proposition that the bad stuff that is being experienced now will only continue and perhaps get worse in the future if Trump is re elected    a 'slippery slope fallacy'??     Trump will continue to do Trump things... and his adherents will continue to say he's good and right and an awesome president. 

Please explain why you think what was said was an example of a slippery Slope fallacy.  

PS:  I heard there's an newly revised version of the "How to be a Successful Internet Troll" from a relative - he's been trying out some of the new updated tips and techniques.  You should look into it.  
 

[laterbloomer]

Please don't turn this into a thread about jma. It stops us talking about an important topic, which is what he wants.

[Deleted]

Jul 28, 2020 14:38:51 GMT -5 NastyWoman said:

Jul 28, 2020 13:48:38 GMT -5 @x said:

Reminds me of your first time on this forum when you singled out O.C. and me.  (I guess you enjoyed it for some reason)

I enjoy being correct.    

I couldn't care less about provocation.


Have a great day.

I'm so sorry that you are correct so seldom in life that you need to post here - where you still are not succeeding

Because you said so...

[Deleted]

Jul 28, 2020 15:13:33 GMT -5 Tiny said:

Jul 28, 2020 13:48:38 GMT -5 @x said:

Reminds me of your first time on this forum when you singled out O.C. and me.  (I guess you enjoyed it for some reason)

I enjoy being correct.    

I couldn't care less about provocation.


Have a great day.

[2] The core of the slippery slope argument is that a specific decision under debate is likely to result in unintended consequences.

 
 

(snipped for brevity) 

Right here. 

[Deleted]

Jul 28, 2020 20:19:32 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Please don't turn this into a thread about jma. It stops us talking about an important topic, which is what he wants.

Not really.    

You would have to go back to my first post on this thread, reply #27

[laterbloomer]

This is the kind of stuff that freaks me out COVID-19 patients will be ‘sent home to die’

Starr County once went about three weeks without a COVID-19 case at the beginning of the pandemic. It banned large gatherings, tested hundreds of residents a day, issued stay-at-home orders and required face masks — many of the same mandates now commonplace across the U.S. The poor and mostly Latino county on the Mexico border was containing COVID-19...But after Gov. Greg Abbott issued orders for the reopening of the state, overriding local control and decision-making, COVID-19 cases surged. Now Starr County is at a dangerous “tipping point,” reporting an alarming number of new cases each day, data show. Starr County Memorial Hospital — the county’s only hospital — is overflowing with COVID-19 patients.

[mmhmm]

Jul 28, 2020 20:19:32 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Please don't turn this into a thread about jma. It stops us talking about an important topic, which is what he wants.

The ongoing tit-for-tat between two posters (who know who they are) on this thread is to stop. Others are reading here and sharing their opinions. They're not interested in seeing the thread taken over by a spat between two posters. In short - cut it out, boys!

mmhmm, Administrator

[Deleted]

Jul 29, 2020 11:23:12 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

This is the kind of stuff that freaks me out COVID-19 patients will be ‘sent home to die’

Starr County once went about three weeks without a COVID-19 case at the beginning of the pandemic. It banned large gatherings, tested hundreds of residents a day, issued stay-at-home orders and required face masks — many of the same mandates now commonplace across the U.S. The poor and mostly Latino county on the Mexico border was containing COVID-19...But after Gov. Greg Abbott issued orders for the reopening of the state, overriding local control and decision-making, COVID-19 cases surged. Now Starr County is at a dangerous “tipping point,” reporting an alarming number of new cases each day, data show. Starr County Memorial Hospital — the county’s only hospital — is overflowing with COVID-19 patients.

I have a hard time believing that the people of that county do not know what is going on. 

What is stopping them from using virus avoidance protocol on their own ? 

If it's that bad in that county. 

Why do they need a local government to tell them what to do, outside of providing information of how to avoid infection. 

[laterbloomer]

Jul 30, 2020 11:23:55 GMT -5 @x said:

Jul 29, 2020 11:23:12 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

This is the kind of stuff that freaks me out COVID-19 patients will be ‘sent home to die’

I have a hard time believing that the people of that county do not know what is going on. 

What is stopping them from using virus avoidance protocol on their own ? 

If it's that bad in that county. 

Why do they need a local government to tell them what to do, outside of providing information of how to avoid infection. 

Because some people are idiots. My area has all the regulations and we have assholes that still won't follow it. I really don't understand what is going through their heads. So now we have gone from no cases to 24 this week, most of them "under 19", 6 of them not knowing where they made contact. Lovely. 

[Deleted]

Jul 30, 2020 11:59:07 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Jul 30, 2020 11:23:55 GMT -5 @x said:

I have a hard time believing that the people of that county do not know what is going on. 

What is stopping them from using virus avoidance protocol on their own ? 

If it's that bad in that county. 

Why do they need a local government to tell them what to do, outside of providing information of how to avoid infection. 

Because some people are idiots. My area has all the regulations and we have assholes that still won't follow it. I really don't understand what is going through their heads. So now we have gone from no cases to 24 this week, most of them "under 19", 6 of them not knowing where they made contact. Lovely. 

LOL, OK I can believe that.  (bolded)

Now I know what you were trying to say with your post.

I was in Wal-Mart recently before the store's mask requirement. 

Everyone I had seen was wearing a mask, except for one guy who blithely ignored distancing and wasn't wearing a mask. 

We shop during 'retiree time' while everyone is at work. 

We kept our distance, needless to say.

He was maybe 30 ? 

[mmhmm]

Jul 30, 2020 11:59:07 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Jul 30, 2020 11:23:55 GMT -5 @x said:

I have a hard time believing that the people of that county do not know what is going on. 

What is stopping them from using virus avoidance protocol on their own ? 

If it's that bad in that county. 

Why do they need a local government to tell them what to do, outside of providing information of how to avoid infection. 

Because some people are idiots. My area has all the regulations and we have assholes that still won't follow it. I really don't understand what is going through their heads. So now we have gone from no cases to 24 this week, most of them "under 19", 6 of them not knowing where they made contact. Lovely. 

I'm so sorry, later. This has to be really scary for everybody. Please, just stay safe and stay well.

[laterbloomer]

Aug 2, 2020 7:09:16 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Jul 30, 2020 11:59:07 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Because some people are idiots. My area has all the regulations and we have assholes that still won't follow it. I really don't understand what is going through their heads. So now we have gone from no cases to 24 this week, most of them "under 19", 6 of them not knowing where they made contact. Lovely. 

I'm so sorry, later. This has to be really scary for everybody. Please, just stay safe and stay well.

So apparently some teen travelled out of the community to a popular beach spot and picked it up. They came back and went to a pit party and passed it on to a bunch of other teens. This week we will see who those teens passed it on to.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 2, 2020 10:00:32 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

Aug 2, 2020 7:09:16 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

I'm so sorry, later. This has to be really scary for everybody. Please, just stay safe and stay well.

So apparently some teen travelled out of the community to a popular beach spot and picked it up. They came back and went to a pit party and passed it on to a bunch of other teens. This week we will see who those teens passed it on to.

I have heard of a pity party, but what is a pit party?

[mollyc]

Up here, it's a party in a gravel pit (active or retired).  I'm assuming it's the same back east but I might be wrong.

[laterbloomer]

Aug 2, 2020 14:25:42 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 2, 2020 10:00:32 GMT -5 laterbloomer said:

So apparently some teen travelled out of the community to a popular beach spot and picked it up. They came back and went to a pit party and passed it on to a bunch of other teens. This week we will see who those teens passed it on to.

I have heard of a pity party, but what is a pit party?

What molly said. We are a mining community. We have pits.

[flutterby]

I don't know how other places count COVID-related deaths, but in my state they give us two numbers - those who died WITH the virus (but it wasn't the cause of death) and those who died OF the virus (was the cause of death). I assumed that was the norm everywhere.

[pulmonarymd]

Aug 2, 2020 18:27:57 GMT -5 flutterby said:

I don't know how other places count COVID-related deaths, but in my state they give us two numbers - those who died WITH the virus (but it wasn't the cause of death) and those who died OF the virus (was the cause of death). I assumed that was the norm everywhere.

No, that is a political move to make things look better. What did these people who died “with” it for of?

[flutterby]

What did they die of? Reportedly, anything and everything - car accident, heart attack, murder, cancer, etc. It sounds like they test all deaths for COVID; that's the only reason I can think of that they'd know if someone was positive when they died of something unrelated to the virus.

[pulmonarymd]

Aug 2, 2020 19:27:10 GMT -5 flutterby said:

What did they die of? Reportedly, anything and everything - car accident, heart attack, murder, cancer, etc. It sounds like they test all deaths for COVID; that's the only reason I can think of that they'd know if someone was positive when they died of something unrelated to the virus.

That’s not it. No, they don’t test everybody who dies. They do test everyone admitted to the hospital. If you saw my post earlier, if they died from a surgical complication, tested positive, but it was unrelated to the cause of death, it is reported as present, but not related to cause of death. Again, doing what they are doing is nothing but politics

[flutterby]

Oh, I believe you about it being political. I was just under the (possibly delusional) impression we were doing pretty well compared to other states and being able to easily see the reported statistics.

[pulmonarymd]

Aug 2, 2020 20:08:14 GMT -5 flutterby said:

Oh, I believe you about it being political. I was just under the (possibly delusional) impression we were doing pretty well compared to other states and being able to easily see the reported statistics.

Here, in the paper every day, we have charts on number of deaths, hospitalizations, positives/cases, and number of tests so we can see positivity rate. None of the nonsense of positives but died from other causes. Also how many nursing home patients who tear positive and number of deaths. No hiding cases, no attempt at explaining away deaths, just straight damage data. That is being transparent

[Spellbound454]

I think a lot of Countries are lying about their death rates.......... Iran in the news this morning with 3x their published figures.

God knows how many there are in India.....they have a bad infection and 1.3bn population..... recording 38K deaths........ I don't even think they know

Many Countries just reporting in-hospital deaths and ignoring the rest.

Others are just burying their dead...no questions asked.

We don't have deaths here at the moment but receive..... County infections/100,000 population..... Nationally its 8..... ours is in the 20/30 and we are in lock down (again)

There is a grey area around nursing homes...... Some people are terminal and go to the nursing home at the end of their life.

I'm not sure if they are counted as dying "of covid"on the record........... or "with covid" off the record.

Our opposition are looking at ways to get the figures as high as possible so they can get re-elected

Whilst the government are trying to keep the figures down. So party politics isn't really helping with the search for the truth.

[Deleted]

If you have a car accident and die, they aren't testing you for COVID. In my state, unless you have symptoms and contact with someone who had it, they won't test you.

Whatever state you live in is cooking the books to make it appear people die "with" covid and not "of" it. It's made to make it appear this is not as deadly as it is. Whatever state you live in, FL?, TX? is completely lying to you. 

It's a Trump talking point that people die with COVID and not of it, though it's complete BULLSHIT.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 2, 2020 21:06:10 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Aug 2, 2020 20:08:14 GMT -5 flutterby said:

Oh, I believe you about it being political. I was just under the (possibly delusional) impression we were doing pretty well compared to other states and being able to easily see the reported statistics.

Here, in the paper every day, we have charts on number of deaths, hospitalizations, positives/cases, and number of tests so we can see positivity rate. None of the nonsense of positives but died from other causes. Also how many nursing home patients who tear positive and number of deaths. No hiding cases, no attempt at explaining away deaths, just straight damage data. That is being transparent

this method will capture some people that died of other procuring causes, but it will also fail to capture some who die and are not tested.

if a person dies of unknown causes, I am guessing they are not testing for COVID, right?

[pulmonarymd]

Aug 3, 2020 9:49:18 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 2, 2020 21:06:10 GMT -5 pulmonarymd said:

Here, in the paper every day, we have charts on number of deaths, hospitalizations, positives/cases, and number of tests so we can see positivity rate. None of the nonsense of positives but died from other causes. Also how many nursing home patients who tear positive and number of deaths. No hiding cases, no attempt at explaining away deaths, just straight damage data. That is being transparent

this method will capture some people that died of other procuring causes, but it will also fail to capture some who die and are not tested.

if a person dies of unknown causes, I am guessing they are not testing for COVID, right?

Depends on a number of factors, test availability, desire to actually be honest and truthful, whether there is another obvious cause of death. I read something that in MS, the coroners are not getting enough test kits to test everyone they need to. So, if you die in a hospital, the cause of death is accurate. Outside of that, who knows. Another reason we are clearly undercounting

[haapai]

The COVID tracking project recently posted an interesting blog post regarding the difference between death certificate method and the case classification  method of reporting COVID-19 deaths. 

Okay, "interesting" might not be the right word to use.  It's very nerdy and technical and it made my head spin.  After I regained my balance, this is what I took away. 

The cumulative difference in the number of confirmed deaths determined by using either of the two methods should be quite small as long as only a small portion of the population has a current case of COVID-19 (which is currently true), the persons filling out death certificates are reasonably competent (also true) and COVID-19 testing is not being rationed (which depends on when and where the death occurred). 

However, when that last criteria is not met, both methods will under-count the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths and may or may not create a large number of probable COVID-19 deaths depending on just how overwhelmed our healthcare system is and how tightly testing is rationed with the goal of preserving life.  We've been in that situation before and we may be headed for it again, but my head starts spinning when I think about it. 

I'll give the part about how the death certification method and the case definition method affects probable COVID-19 death reporting another shot once my stomach settles.  I don't want to think about returning toe situation that we were in earlier this year and I can't see how how reporting large numbers of probable COVID-19 deaths could possibly create a significant, over-count.    

[Deleted]

Aug 3, 2020 11:05:40 GMT -5 haapai said:

The COVID tracking project recently posted an interesting blog post regarding the difference between death certificate method and the case classification  method of reporting COVID-19 deaths. 

Okay, "interesting" might not be the right word to use.  It's very nerdy and technical and it made my head spin.  After I regained my balance, this is what I took away. 

The cumulative difference in the number of confirmed deaths determined by using either of the two methods should be quite small as long as only a small portion of the population has a current case of COVID-19 (which is currently true), the persons filling out death certificates are reasonably competent (also true) and COVID-19 testing is not being rationed (which depends on when and where the death occurred). 

However, when that last criteria is not met, both methods will under-count the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths and may or may not create a large number of probable COVID-19 deaths depending on just how overwhelmed our healthcare system is and how tightly testing is rationed with the goal of preserving life.  We've been in that situation before and we may be headed for it again, but my head starts spinning when I think about it. 

I'll give the part about how the death certification method and the case definition method affects probable COVID-19 death reporting another shot once my stomach settles.  I don't want to think about returning toe situation that we were in earlier this year and I can't see how how reporting large numbers of probable COVID-19 deaths could possibly create a significant, over-count.    

I don't get what your saying. 

If you report 'large' numbers of probable, wouldn't that create a significant over count ?  (deaths)

I believe we are undercounted as an infection rate.