jerseygirl
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Post by jerseygirl on May 15, 2020 9:34:10 GMT -5
You could just install a phone tracker app and it would keep track of everywhere you were and the time. They have that available in Germany on a voluntary basis, which is the way I think it should be. They do it in China but you have no choice. And South Korea since SARS in 2003 SK put in place involuntary tracking of peoples GPS from phones AND credit card location tracking. Doubt ver much if Americans would agree with laws being changed to allow this kind of county wide tracing- but it worked in SK
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 9:44:33 GMT -5
They have that available in Germany on a voluntary basis, which is the way I think it should be. They do it in China but you have no choice. And South Korea since SARS in 2003 SK put in place involuntary tracking of peoples GPS from phones AND credit card location tracking. Doubt ver much if Americans would agree with laws being changed to allow this kind of county wide tracing- but it worked in SK I was mainly replying to Drama's post suggesting keeping a journal for personal use rather than using it a government tool. I would burn out of having to physically write something down pretty fast, but the phone could track automatically.
Although, I wouldn't personally be opposed to opting into a government tracking system either.
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hoops902
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Post by hoops902 on May 15, 2020 9:46:16 GMT -5
IDK - I'm kind of to the point of people are going to do whatever they want anyway so why not open things up a bit. There were hair dressers going to people's homes when we were under lock down, people were having house parties, I continuously see construction workers chatting with no masks and very little distance between them. If the hospitals are not overwhelmed then why not open things up. I think opening bars right now is dumb as hell, but my guess is that the people that would go to them are still gathering in some other form.
I am to the point that we are all responsible for ourselves. I am going to try and do what I can do not get this thing for several months (so hopefully health professionals know more about it), but I also don't necessarily judge people that want to get out and about. If they aren't scared of getting it then okay...let them go out and get it. That will allow us to get more useful information about this disease. If the healthcare system in one particular area starts to get overloaded then that area can start putting more restrictions in place. Locking down small down Kentucky because NYC is overloaded doesn't make sense to most people, and that is one reason why people are getting perturbed. I live in a large city where there have been quite a few cases and even out hospitals are far from overloaded.
I think in the beginning people were fine. They thought we would do this for around 4 weeks and be done, but we are way past that and people are getting antsy. The numbers actually did not drop dramatically like they thought. They miss their families, their friends, their co-workers, and normal activities.
The only issue I have from my point of view is the lack of concern for the exposure healthcare workers are expected to assume. So, the people who do not get precautions get sick. They then come into healthcare facilities, expect to be treated, and expect we will voluntarily expose ourselves on a frequent basis, and it is no big deal. I really would like some consideration for our predicament. We do not want to catch this any more than you do, but if people act like idiots,they are directly affecting our risk. On the one hand I don't want to say "it is no big deal", but on the other...it's the job these people chose to do. Most jobs are not just the best parts that we all like...jobs have shitty sides that we dislike and in some cases seem unfair. Healthcare workers are expected to voluntarily expose themselves on a frequent basis because that's the job they get paid to do... If someone doesn't want to be exposed to someone who is sick...being in healthcare probably wasn't the right career choice. I don't want to minimize that it might be scary for some folks. But I don't really see a "predicament". This is the shitty part of the job people chose to have...and it doesn't seem like it would be an unforeseeable part of the job which would take someone by surprise. I see it as similar to someone in the military being sent into battle...often because some idiot is putting them in harm's way by doing so. And I'm sure it's scary for some. But it's also kind of the primary reason their job exists that they signed up for.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on May 15, 2020 9:48:10 GMT -5
And South Korea since SARS in 2003 SK put in place involuntary tracking of peoples GPS from phones AND credit card location tracking. Doubt ver much if Americans would agree with laws being changed to allow this kind of county wide tracing- but it worked in SK I was mainly replying to Drama's post suggesting keeping a journal for personal use rather than using it a government tool. I would burn out of having to physically write something down pretty fast, but the phone could track automatically.
Although, I wouldn't personally be opposed to opting into a government tracking system either.
I admit, I have issues with tracking systems. I think I saw a headline about Europe and tracking apps this morning. I didn't read it though.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 15, 2020 9:48:59 GMT -5
No, it is meant to find who was exposed to a known case. Done correctly, you have enough manpower to track down everyone with a potential signic=ficant exposure, quarantine them for the incubation period so there is no chance of spread, and find who they may have been in contact with, so they know to monitor for symptoms. Again, done right, someone would check in on all the people exposed to see if they are ill. manpower intensive, but it would lead t a decreasing number of infections over time, as you cut off spread by isolating people, and knowing who is sick. Who thinks we would a0 spend the money we need to do this, or b) tolerate the restrictions put in place, or c) give up our privacy or freedom? Same system is done for STD tracking, people are supposed to identify their sexual contacts, so you can find infections. STD Tracking: Makes sense...most people will likely have a limited number of people to trace. And many of those people who get traced will be completed loops (i.e. they don't then have tons of people to track themselves, the loop is closed) Viral infection with a potential 14 day incubation period: This just seems...nearly impossible. It's not really just enough to 'check in on people to see if they are ill' because they likely won't be ill, until they are ill a few days later. If we were talking about "I had a significant period of time in their presence" then great. The moment we get into things like "I rode the bus", it seems like it's insanely difficult. At least with STDs hopefully I at least know the names of the people... But let's say I work at a Wal-Mart in grocery and I have a positive test. Ok, so now we're going to track down all the people who work there, or who shopped there. And that's in the last 2 weeks which is probably a massive number...and then all those people all those people had contact with. A big part of me wonders how "worth it" the tracing is for something like this. If you're in a place that has any outbreaks at all...and you're not a hermit...you've probably had contact, or contact with someone who had contact, etc. Might as well send me a message every day that says someone has been found diagnosed who may have had some kind of contact that I was exposed to. You'd be better off just literally shutting everyone and everything down for 2 weeks. With that long an incubation period, you're just going to be telling everyone constantly they may have been exposed...and it's all going to become meaningless to everyone. Don't disagree with you, was just pointing out how it would work in this case. Your point is the reason we shut down in the first place, and why the risk of reopening needs to be considered in how we do it, because done incorrectly, it could lead to going back to shutting things down again. Better surveillance could lead to catching things at an earlier stage, and possibly avoiding the state we found ourselves in, but that is all theoretical
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 15, 2020 9:53:13 GMT -5
The only issue I have from my point of view is the lack of concern for the exposure healthcare workers are expected to assume. So, the people who do not get precautions get sick. They then come into healthcare facilities, expect to be treated, and expect we will voluntarily expose ourselves on a frequent basis, and it is no big deal. I really would like some consideration for our predicament. We do not want to catch this any more than you do, but if people act like idiots,they are directly affecting our risk. On the one hand I don't want to say "it is no big deal", but on the other...it's the job these people chose to do. Most jobs are not just the best parts that we all like...jobs have shitty sides that we dislike and in some cases seem unfair. Healthcare workers are expected to voluntarily expose themselves on a frequent basis because that's the job they get paid to do... If someone doesn't want to be exposed to someone who is sick...being in healthcare probably wasn't the right career choice. I don't want to minimize that it might be scary for some folks. But I don't really see a "predicament". This is the shitty part of the job people chose to have...and it doesn't seem like it would be an unforeseeable part of the job which would take someone by surprise. I see it as similar to someone in the military being sent into battle...often because some idiot is putting them in harm's way by doing so. And I'm sure it's scary for some. But it's also kind of the primary reason their job exists that they signed up for. Agree with the shitty part of the job. We have all been doing it without complaining, but we are in this for the long haul, and will have to deal with this for without a clear end in sight. Just would be nice to have less of it, that all. It is physically and mentally exhausting, and having even a little less of it to deal with could help prevent burnout. Guess I am just venting, it has been a long 6 weeks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 9:53:47 GMT -5
See, I don't think it's a local decision...unless...every county then is responsible for their own. There's no asking other counties for resources to help.
I also think then that counties/cities/towns/places so small that they are unincorporated or only have a gas station should have the right to completely wall off their borders to non-local residents.
You may choose to use your brain. Honestly, people that choose a reasonable course of behaviors, or doing the right thing, is absolutely in the minority. I support the Native American tribes doing just this. In my area they are more worried about losing tourists' dollars to see what those tourists will eventually do to the health of this area.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 9:54:57 GMT -5
IDK - I'm kind of to the point of people are going to do whatever they want anyway so why not open things up a bit. There were hair dressers going to people's homes when we were under lock down, people were having house parties, I continuously see construction workers chatting with no masks and very little distance between them. If the hospitals are not overwhelmed then why not open things up. I think opening bars right now is dumb as hell, but my guess is that the people that would go to them are still gathering in some other form.
I am to the point that we are all responsible for ourselves. I am going to try and do what I can do not get this thing for several months (so hopefully health professionals know more about it), but I also don't necessarily judge people that want to get out and about. If they aren't scared of getting it then okay...let them go out and get it. That will allow us to get more useful information about this disease. If the healthcare system in one particular area starts to get overloaded then that area can start putting more restrictions in place. Locking down small down Kentucky because NYC is overloaded doesn't make sense to most people, and that is one reason why people are getting perturbed. I live in a large city where there have been quite a few cases and even out hospitals are far from overloaded.
I think in the beginning people were fine. They thought we would do this for around 4 weeks and be done, but we are way past that and people are getting antsy. The numbers actually did not drop dramatically like they thought. They miss their families, their friends, their co-workers, and normal activities.
The only issue I have from my point of view is the lack of concern for the exposure healthcare workers are expected to assume. So, the people who do not get precautions get sick. They then come into healthcare facilities, expect to be treated, and expect we will voluntarily expose ourselves on a frequent basis, and it is no big deal. I really would like some consideration for our predicament. We do not want to catch this any more than you do, but if people act like idiots,they are directly affecting our risk. The problem is the lack of consideration/care for their fellow Americans as well as healthcare workers. As the current situation is going, I hope healthcare providers are planning for massive outbreaks. They are coming.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 9:58:23 GMT -5
See, I don't think it's a local decision...unless...every county then is responsible for their own. There's no asking other counties for resources to help.
I also think then that counties/cities/towns/places so small that they are unincorporated or only have a gas station should have the right to completely wall off their borders to non-local residents.
You may choose to use your brain. Honestly, people that choose a reasonable course of behaviors, or doing the right thing, is absolutely in the minority. I support the Native American tribes doing just this. In my area they are more worried about losing tourists' dollars to see what those tourists will eventually do to the health of this area. Well, and that's just it. Who is going into areas with nothing but a gas station? Unless they're tourist locations, nobody except the guy delivering the gas. It's more likely the people who live in unincorporated towns are traveling to other counties to get their necessities.
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hoops902
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Post by hoops902 on May 15, 2020 10:01:36 GMT -5
I support the Native American tribes doing just this. In my area they are more worried about losing tourists' dollars to see what those tourists will eventually do to the health of this area. Well, and that's just it. Who is going into areas with nothing but a gas station? Unless they're tourist locations, nobody except the guy delivering the gas. It's more likely the people who live in unincorporated towns are traveling to other counties to get their necessities. Exactly, "walling off to outside people" only works if you're also going to force the residents to never leave the area themselves. It's the equivalent of saying "nobody is allowed to come inside my house now during this outbreak"...great...but even if I never leave the house but others who live here do...I'm no safer.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on May 15, 2020 10:04:00 GMT -5
I would like to see temporary mandatory mask laws. Let's take the burden off the shop owners.
Restaurants are tougher. Hard to eat with a mask on.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 10:05:09 GMT -5
I support the Native American tribes doing just this. In my area they are more worried about losing tourists' dollars to see what those tourists will eventually do to the health of this area. Well, and that's just it. Who is going into areas with nothing but a gas station? Unless they're tourist locations, nobody except the guy delivering the gas. It's more likely the people who live in unincorporated towns are traveling to other counties to get their necessities. Who is traveling here? People who want to buy weed from ID where it's illegal, people who want to spend their lockdown time in the woods/desert, the van life/RVers who found themselves with all camping spots closed and scrambling for places to stay, truckers, etc... People here have been asking others not to travel to the larger cities for shopping. Most things people need to live here can be purchased locally or online. However, at any time, we are sharing stores and gas stations with people from out of this area who choose to come here. We already have residents who live 80+ miles away who come to shop. Adding all the tourists/travelers just increases risk for everyone here where there's little to no healthcare resources.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on May 15, 2020 10:07:32 GMT -5
Reading about contact tracing in Nebraska and one health official encourages people to use a calendar to track your movements. That way if you start showing symptoms you have an idea of where you've been without having to rely solely on memory. That's not a bad idea. OK, on Tuesday I was at Joann Fabrics. There must have been at least 30 people in there but could have been more as I was wandering through the store and I didn't know any of them. How on earth can ANYONE know who they came in contact with? This sounds something like a fairy tale of ridiculous day dreams. On edit: last yesterday afternoon Walmart sent me a text saying my Rx was ready. Off I went. As I walked through the store to the pharmacy, people were going up and down the aisles, some were at the Scan and Go lanes, some had masks, some didn't. Oh wait, I'll get my calendar and tell you everyone I came in contact with yesterday at Walmart. I think they meant that if you know you visited the Wal-mart on 45th and Dodge they can put out something on the news that there was a potential exposure at said Wal-mart on 45th and Dodge. If you go there probably not a bad idea to see your physician if you start feeling ill. Or if I visited my grandmother in the nursing home not only do I have the name of the nursing home but it's known I was in direct contact with her. They did not mean literally naming every single person you came in contact with even in passing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 10:08:14 GMT -5
But let's say I work at a Wal-Mart in grocery and I have a positive test. Ok, so now we're going to track down all the people who work there, or who shopped there. And that's in the last 2 weeks which is probably a massive number...and then all those people all those people had contact with. A big part of me wonders how "worth it" the tracing is for something like this. If you're in a place that has any outbreaks at all...and you're not a hermit...you've probably had contact, or contact with someone who had contact, etc. Might as well send me a message every day that says someone has been found diagnosed who may have had some kind of contact that I was exposed to. You'd be better off just literally shutting everyone and everything down for 2 weeks. With that long an incubation period, you're just going to be telling everyone constantly they may have been exposed...and it's all going to become meaningless to everyone. Yeah, that would be my concern. Way too many "maybe" incidents. As it is, every time I cough, or feel a twinge in my throat or a breathe a little heavier after carrying something up a flight of steps I worry that it's COVID-19. I probably don't need to know how many places I've been at the same time as someone who's actually been diagnosed with it. Someone on FB posted a letter to Costco employees at the store I frequent a few weeks ago. They had 7 cases among their employees- they didn't list names, just departments and usual working hours. I had to remind myself that this did not mean Costco was any more dangerous than any other store- it was just that they were being transparent and I had no idea what the incidence was at other places.
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oped
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Post by oped on May 15, 2020 10:08:45 GMT -5
South Korea’s handling of the latest night club outbreak should probably be a lesson on contact tracing and containment.
And yes... they tested like 46000 people due to this outbreak...found 246 traced back I think is the last number...
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souldoubt
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Post by souldoubt on May 15, 2020 10:13:40 GMT -5
Well, and that's just it. Who is going into areas with nothing but a gas station? Unless they're tourist locations, nobody except the guy delivering the gas. It's more likely the people who live in unincorporated towns are traveling to other counties to get their necessities. Exactly, "walling off to outside people" only works if you're also going to force the residents to never leave the area themselves. It's the equivalent of saying "nobody is allowed to come inside my house now during this outbreak"...great...but even if I never leave the house but others who live here do...I'm no safer. My wife works at a senior living facility and this is exactly what they're dealing with. They've locked down and aren't allowing visitors while all vendor deliveries are done at a specific location nowhere near the residents. The residents have everything that they need to survive but like some people in general with all of this they get restless and I don't blame them. Some of them who still drive are going off property to go to the store. They try to have people maintain social distance but they can't watch everyone 24/7 and will find some of them together playing cards or talking.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 10:14:22 GMT -5
Well, and that's just it. Who is going into areas with nothing but a gas station? Unless they're tourist locations, nobody except the guy delivering the gas. It's more likely the people who live in unincorporated towns are traveling to other counties to get their necessities. Who is traveling here? People who want to buy weed from ID where it's illegal, people who want to spend their lockdown time in the woods/desert, the van life/RVers who found themselves with all camping spots closed and scrambling for places to stay, truckers, etc... People here have been asking others not to travel to the larger cities for shopping. Most things people need to live here can be purchased locally or online. However, at any time, we are sharing stores and gas stations with people from out of this area who choose to come here. We already have residents who live 80+ miles away who come to shop. Adding all the tourists/travelers just increases risk for everyone here where there's little to no healthcare resources. That's why I clarified with "unless they're tourist locations".
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on May 15, 2020 10:16:36 GMT -5
I would like to see temporary mandatory mask laws. Let's take the burden off the shop owners. Restaurants are tougher. Hard to eat with a mask on. I would like to see that as well
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2020 10:20:14 GMT -5
I think they meant that if you know you visited the Wal-mart on 45th and Dodge they can put out something on the news that there was a potential exposure at said Wal-mart on 45th and Dodge. If you go there probably not a bad idea to see your physician if you start feeling ill. Or if I visited my grandmother in the nursing home not only do I have the name of the nursing home but it's known I was in direct contact with her. They did not mean literally naming every single person you came in contact with even in passing. Our Public Health Officer does a daily FB report. She mentioned the other day that contact tracing doesn't mean what stores people shopped in, etc... It simply means people who had intimate contact with the infected person. She said there will be no public announcements such as the positive person shopped at X, Y, or Z store because the risk of infection is low for other shoppers and staff. She said further contact tracing isn't possible due to the lack of resources and won't be done because it also violates patients' rights to privacy. Even people who were exposed or who test positive are not required to shelter in place or quarantine. It's apparently against the law to force people to stay home. They are simply called each day and encouraged to stay home until they don't have any symptoms. Not 14 days, not a negative test, until they don't have symptoms. Exposed people who show no symptoms don't have to quarantine at all. Apparently this area no asymptomatic cases are possible.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on May 15, 2020 10:40:33 GMT -5
Exactly, "walling off to outside people" only works if you're also going to force the residents to never leave the area themselves. It's the equivalent of saying "nobody is allowed to come inside my house now during this outbreak"...great...but even if I never leave the house but others who live here do...I'm no safer. My wife works at a senior living facility and this is exactly what they're dealing with. They've locked down and aren't allowing visitors while all vendor deliveries are done at a specific location nowhere near the residents. The residents have everything that they need to survive but like some people in general with all of this they get restless and I don't blame them. Some of them who still drive are going off property to go to the store. They try to have people maintain social distance but they can't watch everyone 24/7 and will find some of them together playing cards or talking.
My cousin's senior living facility has apparently said "you can leave but if you do, you're not coming back here" So while my cousin is going stir crazy, she's not leaving.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on May 15, 2020 10:50:16 GMT -5
Was reading an article today on CNN about how about half of the states are seeing a decline in new cases but is it the right time to open?
Thinking about it myself I don't know if there will ever be a right answer to that. This is a novel virus and we only have so much data. Data and computer models are only as good as the information they are fed. While we are miles ahead of where we were in 1918 when it comes to technology and our understanding of disease we still don't know as much as we like to think we do. The models will continue to be adjusted and adapted as more knowledge is gained.
We should be listening to the CDC because they know this know how to properly analyze/interpret the data to make health policies. There is also a lot of stupid shit going on as arm chair scientists try to push their agendas.
But this is not and never will be a linear process, science never is. We're going to lose live and we're going to lose livlihoods. Nobody is going to escape unscathed in some form. There are no assurances that at any time during this we will pick the "right" time to open.
History will probably be the one to determine if we opened at the "right" time or not. COVID-19 isn't going away and any time you "open" there will be flare ups until enough people have been exposed that herd immunity kicks in. I think we're driving ourselves insane and dividing ourselves up even more by trying to argue about what is the right time to open and what is not. If there is a higher deity only he's the one that 100% knows the answer to that. We'll have to do the best with what we are given.
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hoops902
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Post by hoops902 on May 15, 2020 11:10:04 GMT -5
Was reading an article today on CNN about how about half of the states are seeing a decline in new cases but is it the right time to open? Thinking about it myself I don't know if there will ever be a right answer to that. This is a novel virus and we only have so much data. Data and computer models are only as good as the information they are fed. While we are miles ahead of where we were in 1918 when it comes to technology and our understanding of disease we still don't know as much as we like to think we do. The models will continue to be adjusted and adapted as more knowledge is gained. We should be listening to the CDC because they know this know how to properly analyze/interpret the data to make health policies. There is also a lot of stupid shit going on as arm chair scientists try to push their agendas.But this is not and never will be a linear process, science never is. We're going to lose live and we're going to lose livlihoods. Nobody is going to escape unscathed in some form. There are no assurances that at any time during this we will pick the "right" time to open.
History will probably be the one to determine if we opened at the "right" time or not. COVID-19 isn't going away and any time you "open" there will be flare ups until enough people have been exposed that herd immunity kicks in. I think we're driving ourselves insane and dividing ourselves up even more by trying to argue about what is the right time to open and what is not. If there is a higher deity only he's the one that 100% knows the answer to that. We'll have to do the best with what we are given. The problem is, the CDC makes "health policies" as you point out. But re-opening is not a health policy, it's a balance of health and economic policy. As such, we should fully expect that any re-opening will be against CDC recommendations. And we should expect it will be after economic recommendations to do so. It's a compromise and a balance. They are differing agendas based on their stated goals which do not align...and that's where we run into issues. We should open somewhere between the time economic policy says we should and healthcare policy says we should...but that's likely quite a long spectrum (and it's not as if either policy is done by robots...so even when trying to provide those recommendations there's likely some "leakage" of other factors into those dates).
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 15, 2020 11:11:33 GMT -5
Was reading an article today on CNN about how about half of the states are seeing a decline in new cases but is it the right time to open? Thinking about it myself I don't know if there will ever be a right answer to that. This is a novel virus and we only have so much data. Data and computer models are only as good as the information they are fed. While we are miles ahead of where we were in 1918 when it comes to technology and our understanding of disease we still don't know as much as we like to think we do. The models will continue to be adjusted and adapted as more knowledge is gained. We should be listening to the CDC because they know this know how to properly analyze/interpret the data to make health policies. There is also a lot of stupid shit going on as arm chair scientists try to push their agendas. But this is not and never will be a linear process, science never is. We're going to lose live and we're going to lose livlihoods. Nobody is going to escape unscathed in some form. There are no assurances that at any time during this we will pick the "right" time to open.
History will probably be the one to determine if we opened at the "right" time or not. COVID-19 isn't going away and any time you "open" there will be flare ups until enough people have been exposed that herd immunity kicks in. I think we're driving ourselves insane and dividing ourselves up even more by trying to argue about what is the right time to open and what is not. If there is a higher deity only he's the one that 100% knows the answer to that. We'll have to do the best with what we are given. Where I am we are at a 'tolerable" level of new infections from a health utilization standpoint. If we can have a functioning society and maintain this, we can be ok. The rational way of doing it is in stages, ones that make epidemiologic sense, and then take enough time to evaluate its effect. The problem is not the opening up, the problem is the haphazard nature of the way it is being done. Opening up while wearing masks at least gives us one variable at a time to evaluate. Wouldn't it be sad if we could have more freedom if we were masked, but refused to do so, so infections spiked. Some more patience while this is done would go a long way to seeing us through this. Too much to ask it seems.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on May 15, 2020 11:12:27 GMT -5
IM(not so)HO, I think it is a fine time to reopen. And soon it will be time to shut back down again in areas were the numbers start going up. And then when they start down again, we can open up until we need to shut down again in certain areas. And then ....
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oped
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Post by oped on May 15, 2020 11:14:27 GMT -5
Was reading an article today on CNN about how about half of the states are seeing a decline in new cases but is it the right time to open? Thinking about it myself I don't know if there will ever be a right answer to that. This is a novel virus and we only have so much data. Data and computer models are only as good as the information they are fed. While we are miles ahead of where we were in 1918 when it comes to technology and our understanding of disease we still don't know as much as we like to think we do. The models will continue to be adjusted and adapted as more knowledge is gained. We should be listening to the CDC because they know this know how to properly analyze/interpret the data to make health policies. There is also a lot of stupid shit going on as arm chair scientists try to push their agendas. But this is not and never will be a linear process, science never is. We're going to lose live and we're going to lose livlihoods. Nobody is going to escape unscathed in some form. There are no assurances that at any time during this we will pick the "right" time to open.
History will probably be the one to determine if we opened at the "right" time or not. COVID-19 isn't going away and any time you "open" there will be flare ups until enough people have been exposed that herd immunity kicks in. I think we're driving ourselves insane and dividing ourselves up even more by trying to argue about what is the right time to open and what is not. If there is a higher deity only he's the one that 100% knows the answer to that. We'll have to do the best with what we are given. I don't think when is as important to me as how. I read a good extended analogy today, not about pee in the pool, but poop in the pool... it happens... and when it does, everyone has to exit the pool ... SO THAT someone can isolate the poop and remove it and give the disinfectant time to work. Now this isn't a perfect analogy, except to say that no one has removed the poop from the pool. In this case, we can't actually remove it... but we also can't ignore that its still in the pool. We have to have a plan in place, as other countries do, to deal with the inevitable reality of the poop. Not just ignore it and pretend it isn't there... not just ignore the potential realities of its effects. We COULD have testing and contact tracing and that is HOW and to me WHEN it is 'right' to open. But we don't. So we shall see.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 15, 2020 11:16:10 GMT -5
Was reading an article today on CNN about how about half of the states are seeing a decline in new cases but is it the right time to open? Thinking about it myself I don't know if there will ever be a right answer to that. This is a novel virus and we only have so much data. Data and computer models are only as good as the information they are fed. While we are miles ahead of where we were in 1918 when it comes to technology and our understanding of disease we still don't know as much as we like to think we do. The models will continue to be adjusted and adapted as more knowledge is gained. We should be listening to the CDC because they know this know how to properly analyze/interpret the data to make health policies. There is also a lot of stupid shit going on as arm chair scientists try to push their agendas.But this is not and never will be a linear process, science never is. We're going to lose live and we're going to lose livlihoods. Nobody is going to escape unscathed in some form. There are no assurances that at any time during this we will pick the "right" time to open.
History will probably be the one to determine if we opened at the "right" time or not. COVID-19 isn't going away and any time you "open" there will be flare ups until enough people have been exposed that herd immunity kicks in. I think we're driving ourselves insane and dividing ourselves up even more by trying to argue about what is the right time to open and what is not. If there is a higher deity only he's the one that 100% knows the answer to that. We'll have to do the best with what we are given. The problem is, the CDC makes "health policies" as you point out. But re-opening is not a health policy, it's a balance of health and economic policy. As such, we should fully expect that any re-opening will be against CDC recommendations. And we should expect it will be after economic recommendations to do so. It's a compromise and a balance. They are differing agendas based on their stated goals which do not align...and that's where we run into issues. We should open somewhere between the time economic policy says we should and healthcare policy says we should...but that's likely quite a long spectrum (and it's not as if either policy is done by robots...so even when trying to provide those recommendations there's likely some "leakage" of other factors into those dates). But in the face of unknowns, some sort of modeling, both economic and epidemiologic, could be done to see what approach maximizes economic recovery while minimizing the effects on the health care system. that would be a "win-win". as we would be able to spend the money the health care system is burning in other ways to help the economy. Sure, it could be wrong, but trying to use the best information we have to minimize damage to society would make the most sense. Since no country seems to have the correct blueprint on how to do it, we should at least try to do it intelligently.
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on May 15, 2020 11:19:36 GMT -5
Was reading an article today on CNN about how about half of the states are seeing a decline in new cases but is it the right time to open? Thinking about it myself I don't know if there will ever be a right answer to that. This is a novel virus and we only have so much data. Data and computer models are only as good as the information they are fed. While we are miles ahead of where we were in 1918 when it comes to technology and our understanding of disease we still don't know as much as we like to think we do. The models will continue to be adjusted and adapted as more knowledge is gained. We should be listening to the CDC because they know this know how to properly analyze/interpret the data to make health policies. There is also a lot of stupid shit going on as arm chair scientists try to push their agendas. But this is not and never will be a linear process, science never is. We're going to lose live and we're going to lose livlihoods. Nobody is going to escape unscathed in some form. There are no assurances that at any time during this we will pick the "right" time to open.
History will probably be the one to determine if we opened at the "right" time or not. COVID-19 isn't going away and any time you "open" there will be flare ups until enough people have been exposed that herd immunity kicks in. I think we're driving ourselves insane and dividing ourselves up even more by trying to argue about what is the right time to open and what is not. If there is a higher deity only he's the one that 100% knows the answer to that. We'll have to do the best with what we are given. I don't think when is as important to me as how. I read a good extended analogy today, not about pee in the pool, but poop in the pool... it happens... and when it does, everyone has to exit the pool ... SO THAT someone can isolate the poop and remove it and give the disinfectant time to work. Now this isn't a perfect analogy, except to say that no one has removed the poop from the pool. In this case, we can't actually remove it... but we also can't ignore that its still in the pool. We have to have a plan in place, as other countries do, to deal with the inevitable reality of the poop. Not just ignore it and pretend it isn't there... not just ignore the potential realities of its effects. We COULD have testing and contact tracing and that is HOW and to me WHEN it is 'right' to open. But we don't. So we shall see. And now I'm thinking of Bill Murray in Caddyshack and the pool scene. I feel like we've let the genie out of the bottle and no amount of effort is going to get her to go back in at this point. There are things we can try to do but I think we're going to be headed the herd immunity route whether we want to or not at this point. I would prefer we not go that route and would like to think I'm wrong but if we're going to keep doing this piece meal and react instead of doing as much as we can to proactive I think that's where we're going to end up. For me I want to see an effective treatment that will either keep people out of the ICU or reduce the amount of time spent in it and deaths. I think that's far more likely to happen and happen faster than a vaccine. There ARE diseases we have not been able to develop one for and this could be one of them. We can't base things on our assumptions that science can solve anything/everything. Science is fallible which is what makes it science instead of dogma. So that's where I'd like to see things go and I believe could be done in a reasonable/faster time line than a vaccine likely will. We can't tell everyone stay home till there is a vaccine then say "Ooops our bad we can't make one" and not expect revolution to happen.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on May 15, 2020 11:23:31 GMT -5
Was reading an article today on CNN about how about half of the states are seeing a decline in new cases but is it the right time to open? Thinking about it myself I don't know if there will ever be a right answer to that. This is a novel virus and we only have so much data. Data and computer models are only as good as the information they are fed. While we are miles ahead of where we were in 1918 when it comes to technology and our understanding of disease we still don't know as much as we like to think we do. The models will continue to be adjusted and adapted as more knowledge is gained. We should be listening to the CDC because they know this know how to properly analyze/interpret the data to make health policies. There is also a lot of stupid shit going on as arm chair scientists try to push their agendas.But this is not and never will be a linear process, science never is. We're going to lose live and we're going to lose livlihoods. Nobody is going to escape unscathed in some form. There are no assurances that at any time during this we will pick the "right" time to open.
History will probably be the one to determine if we opened at the "right" time or not. COVID-19 isn't going away and any time you "open" there will be flare ups until enough people have been exposed that herd immunity kicks in. I think we're driving ourselves insane and dividing ourselves up even more by trying to argue about what is the right time to open and what is not. If there is a higher deity only he's the one that 100% knows the answer to that. We'll have to do the best with what we are given. The problem is, the CDC makes "health policies" as you point out. But re-opening is not a health policy, it's a balance of health and economic policy. As such, we should fully expect that any re-opening will be against CDC recommendations. And we should expect it will be after economic recommendations to do so. It's a compromise and a balance. They are differing agendas based on their stated goals which do not align...and that's where we run into issues. We should open somewhere between the time economic policy says we should and healthcare policy says we should...but that's likely quite a long spectrum (and it's not as if either policy is done by robots...so even when trying to provide those recommendations there's likely some "leakage" of other factors into those dates). But would add that a very specific third agenda is an incumbent President running for re-election. His agenda is to make the decisions which will result in people voting him in for a second term. That is not inherently bad. In fact, I see the positive side being he has a huge incentive to get his part right. Time will tell how successful he was.
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pulmonarymd
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Joined: Feb 12, 2020 17:40:54 GMT -5
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 15, 2020 11:27:42 GMT -5
I don't think when is as important to me as how. I read a good extended analogy today, not about pee in the pool, but poop in the pool... it happens... and when it does, everyone has to exit the pool ... SO THAT someone can isolate the poop and remove it and give the disinfectant time to work. Now this isn't a perfect analogy, except to say that no one has removed the poop from the pool. In this case, we can't actually remove it... but we also can't ignore that its still in the pool. We have to have a plan in place, as other countries do, to deal with the inevitable reality of the poop. Not just ignore it and pretend it isn't there... not just ignore the potential realities of its effects. We COULD have testing and contact tracing and that is HOW and to me WHEN it is 'right' to open. But we don't. So we shall see. And now I'm thinking of Bill Murray in Caddyshack and the pool scene. I feel like we've let the genie out of the bottle and no amount of effort is going to get her to go back in at this point. There are things we can try to do but I think we're going to be headed the herd immunity route whether we want to or not at this point. I would prefer we not go that route and would like to think I'm wrong but if we're going to keep doing this piece meal and react instead of doing as much as we can to proactive I think that's where we're going to end up. Herd immunity will be long and painful. If we need about 2/3 of us to get it to see some benefit of herd immunity, 220 million of us need to be infected. If we have 1 million infections a week, it will take 4 years. NYC went through a nightmare, and even after that, about 20-25% of those tested had antibodies. Think they want to go through that again? Sweden is apparently starting to find the number of dead old people difficult to take. Getting to herd immunity quickly without a severe disruption to life is a pipe dream. Unfortunately, we have no plan, we are either putting our head in the sand and ignoring the potential outcome, or hoping it goes away. In which country have we seen it go away?
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on May 15, 2020 11:29:59 GMT -5
This week, a casino that is one county over from me just opened. There are probably a dozen other casinos a stone throw away from this one where I am sure that this is being watched carefully. The county is also one county away from one of the highest number of cases in WA state.
The casino supposedly took out half the machines and spread out the others. They've also banned smoking, which if you've ever been into any of them if you even walk through you leave smelling like an ash tray....lotta smokers there. They are only allowing 800 customers in the casino at a time. I have no idea what they are doing about food and drink, but as some of our local casinos do have some of the best restaurants, I have to wonder about access to both food and drink and how that's being handled. Anyway, on the news they showed a VERY long line of cars waiting to get in, the cars were backed up to the I-5 exit ramps and onto I-5.
The pictures that the news showed had only law enforcement controlling the crowds wearing masks, customers were not. The 2 counties north of Seattle before you hit the Canadian border were pretty much in a position where they could reopen, but I have to wonder if this is not going to cause a whole lot of problems. The casino customers are probably those of higher risk (I'm generalizing) due to age, weight and so many smoke so compromised lungs? (I know that it was thought that smoking might be a risk factor when the early data came out of China about men before more affected, and more likely to smoke in that population).
I don't think that this is what they were figuring, when they talked about slow openings......
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