djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2020 12:57:46 GMT -5
Senator Perdue (R) of Georgia pulled aTrumpian move by saying Kamala several times, all of them wrong and insulting. Sure he gave the white good old boys a laugh but he further alienated women, blacks, and people who hate third grade bullies. Ossoff is running good ads against him, refusing to accept PAC money, playing clips of Perdue minimizing the virus, and pointing out that Perdue attended a secret meeting with the president in March and found out how bad the virus was, and his first action was to sell hotel and casino stock and buy stock in Netflix and pharma. If Perdue keeps running his mouth, Ossoff might win. I've also heard that Warnock (D-Ga.) is leading both Loeffler & Collins in the other Senate race in Ga. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he gets more than 50%. yeah, this is really unexpected. this is a RUNOFF election that Warnock might actually win. even if he loses, Warnock is looking pretty good for the January 5th general election. and Ossoff is actually overperforming in GA, as well.
would it not be just if Abrahams efforts flips GA totally blue? that would be wonderful.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2020 12:59:31 GMT -5
pets eat their masters.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2020 13:15:14 GMT -5
because of the Georgia Dynamic (I now think the Dems are going to pick up at least one seat there), I am going to move the spread to
D49-53
the Cook Political report lists SEVEN as tossups: GA (2), ME, IA, MT, NC
let's look at each one. we already discussed the two in GA. they are both tossups. I will agree to that. the odds below are provided by 538:
ME: Sarah Gideon is 5:3 favourite according to 538. I agree with that. IA: Greenfield is a 9:7. I think that is too low. I rate this at 5:3 also. MT: Daines is 2:1 favourite. I agree with that. NC: Cunningham is a 2:1 favourite. I agree with that.
if we exclude GA, that is 51. if Democrats win one of those, that would be 52. I would not count on them winning both. most likely it will be split.
I felt that Graham had a chance of being beat until this week's Sienna poll, which shows him +6%. they are a terrific pollster, so that kinda shoots that one down.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Oct 24, 2020 13:23:34 GMT -5
What’s the deal with Mitch McConnell’s seemingly bruised hands and lips? The fact-checking website, Snopes, confirms the authenticity of this Associated Press-distributed photograph of the 78-year-old Senate Majority Leader’s hands, which was taken on Tuesday after a Senate Republican Conference lunch. In the photograph, both of the Kentucky senator’s hands are bandaged, mottled, purplish, and seemingly swollen. McConnell refuses to provide an explanation, having declined to discuss it in front of reporters. His office has not issued a statement about the disconcerting pictures. washingtonmonthly.com/2020/10/23/we-always-knew-mitch-mcconnell-was-odd-but-now-this/
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2020 13:27:50 GMT -5
wow. um. I have no idea.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 24, 2020 14:31:42 GMT -5
I've also heard that Warnock (D-Ga.) is leading both Loeffler & Collins in the other Senate race in Ga. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he gets more than 50%. yeah, this is really unexpected. this is a RUNOFF election that Warnock might actually win. even if he loses, Warnock is looking pretty good for the January 5th general election. and Ossoff is actually overperforming in GA, as well.
would it not be just if Abrahams efforts flips GA totally blue? that would be wonderful.
Warnock needs to get 50% so it won’t go to a run off. If loeffler wins GA we’ll be stuck with one of those one percenters hiding as a Christian that we have so many of in the Southern GOP. Plus she has the appearance and personality of a department store mannequin. Fingers crossed.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2020 14:32:49 GMT -5
yeah, this is really unexpected. this is a RUNOFF election that Warnock might actually win. even if he loses, Warnock is looking pretty good for the January 5th general election. and Ossoff is actually overperforming in GA, as well.
would it not be just if Abrahams efforts flips GA totally blue? that would be wonderful.
Warnock needs to get 50% so it won’t go to a run off. If loeffler wins GA we’ll be stuck with one of those one percenters hiding as a Christian that we have so many of in the Southern GOP. Plus she has the appearance and personality of a department store mannequin. Fingers crossed. the head to head polls don't bear that out. have you seen them?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 24, 2020 15:02:57 GMT -5
Warnock needs to get 50% so it won’t go to a run off. If loeffler wins GA we’ll be stuck with one of those one percenters hiding as a Christian that we have so many of in the Southern GOP. Plus she has the appearance and personality of a department store mannequin. Fingers crossed. the head to head polls don't bear that out. have you seen them? I haven't seen them nor can I find any head to head results. Might you have a link to what you have seen?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2020 15:14:40 GMT -5
the head to head polls don't bear that out. have you seen them? I haven't seen them nor can I find any head to head results. Might you have a link to what you have seen? sure thing!
this is Sienna:
int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ga101320-crosstabs/96723fae2a9846ed/full.pdf
it is on page 3. this is an A+ pollster. I would definitely put this within 3% accurate, but there is 14% undecided here.
there is a second one out, but I can't find the data.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 24, 2020 15:24:06 GMT -5
I haven't seen them nor can I find any head to head results. Might you have a link to what you have seen? sure thing!
this is Sienna:
int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ga101320-crosstabs/96723fae2a9846ed/full.pdf
it is on page 3. this is an A+ pollster. I would definitely put this within 3% accurate, but there is 14% undecided here.
there is a second one out, but I can't find the data.
seems to not be a forgone conclusion either GOP candidate would win a runoff election if there is one.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 24, 2020 15:38:59 GMT -5
Warnock needs to get 50% so it won’t go to a run off. If loeffler wins GA we’ll be stuck with one of those one percenters hiding as a Christian that we have so many of in the Southern GOP. Plus she has the appearance and personality of a department store mannequin. Fingers crossed. the head to head polls don't bear that out. have you seen them? Warnock is around 50%, I think Loeffler is around 27% and Doug Collins at 17% in this round. If there is a run off, we can assume the GOP voters for Collins will switch and vote for Loeffler, which makes it 50% vs 44%, then you have all the votes that are currently going to the remaining 12 people running in the run off, which I assume will also mostly line up behind Loeffler, because Georgia, plus the amount of black voter suppression Kemp will use, because Warnock is black and also democratic, and therefore must be stopped by all legal and illegal means, also because Georgia. Voters in Atlanta have to stand 8 to 10 hours in line to vote - in early voting. I live in a rural area and didn't have to wait at all. Because Georgia. So I would very much prefer Warnock win right here and now, no run off.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Oct 24, 2020 16:11:24 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 25, 2020 6:23:11 GMT -5
seems to not be a forgone conclusion either GOP candidate would win a runoff election if there is one. that's true. they have hypotheticals with both GOP candidates. she wins both.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 25, 2020 6:25:01 GMT -5
the head to head polls don't bear that out. have you seen them? Warnock is around 50%, I think Loeffler is around 27% and Doug Collins at 17% in this round. If there is a run off, we can assume the GOP voters for Collins will switch and vote for Loeffler, which makes it 50% vs 44%, then you have all the votes that are currently going to the remaining 12 people running in the run off, which I assume will also mostly line up behind Loeffler, because Georgia, plus the amount of black voter suppression Kemp will use, because Warnock is black and also democratic, and therefore must be stopped by all legal and illegal means, also because Georgia. Voters in Atlanta have to stand 8 to 10 hours in line to vote - in early voting. I live in a rural area and didn't have to wait at all. Because Georgia. So I would very much prefer Warnock win right here and now, no run off. of course! but the race polling is not generally showing Warnock anywhere near 50%. my point is that the runoff polling looks favorable to Warnock at this point, as well.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Nov 1, 2020 17:55:57 GMT -5
So many exciting Senate races this year. Which is your favourite? * Kelly vs McSally in AZ? AZ will have 2 Democratic senators again if this happens. * GA's Perdue vs. Ossoff? I can't help supporting the geek. * IA's Ernst vs. Greenfield? * Collins vs Gideon? Maine's moderate senator isn't bad, but I think she kowtows to Trump and doesn't support her state. * Harrison vs. Graham in SC? * Long-shot of Bollier against Marshall in KS? * Others? My fav is Harrison vs Graham. I like Harrison quite a bit, but I love the idea that Graham can lose.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2020 18:03:12 GMT -5
So many exciting Senate races this year. Which is your favourite? * Kelly vs McSally in AZ? AZ will have 2 Democratic senators again if this happens. * GA's Perdue vs. Ossoff? I can't help supporting the geek. [img src="https://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff155/JiminiChristmas/ymamsmiles/smile.gif" alt=" " src="//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png" class="smile"] * IA's Ernst vs. Greenfield? * Collins vs Gideon? Maine's moderate senator isn't bad, but I think she kowtows to Trump and doesn't support her state. * Harrison vs. Graham in SC? * Long-shot of Bollier against Marshall in KS? * Others? My fav is Harrison vs Graham. I like Harrison quite a bit, but I love the idea that Graham can lose. my picks are highlighted where I have them above/\ I have not been following KS, and GA is too close to call, though I will add that Ossoff has all the momentum. I would have counted him out a month ago.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Nov 1, 2020 18:06:23 GMT -5
I was really excited about Greenfield winning... her debate response to the price of corn vs. Ernst's response to the price of soybeans... fantastic. However, Ernst is polling ahead now, so I don't think this seat will flip.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Nov 1, 2020 18:07:46 GMT -5
Yeah, I know... Lindsey will probably get elected again, but I continue to hope.
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tcu2003
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Post by tcu2003 on Nov 2, 2020 0:25:02 GMT -5
Bollier vs Marshall - but mostly because it’s local to me and I happily cast my ballot for Bollier.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 2, 2020 2:24:51 GMT -5
I was really excited about Greenfield winning... her debate response to the price of corn vs. Ernst's response to the price of soybeans... fantastic. However, Ernst is polling ahead now, so I don't think this seat will flip. after reviewing the data this morning, I think this one is a tossup.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 3, 2020 12:33:03 GMT -5
270towin added a very cool feature at their site. it allows you to monitor election results in all 50 states in real time: www.270towin.com/2020-election-results-live/senate/there has been some babble about the Senate races changing, but I don't really see it. the Democrats will still get between 49 and 54 seats, with the median toggling between 51 and 52. there are some real wildcard races out there, for certain. but it is safe to say that whoever wins the presidency will probably win the senate. in the case of Democrats, it is a near certainty. in the case of Republicans, less so.
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Nov 3, 2020 20:19:35 GMT -5
Off course Kentucky Re-elects McConnell to the senate.
Color me NOT surprised.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Nov 3, 2020 20:45:48 GMT -5
Off course Kentucky Re-elects McConnell to the senate. Color me NOT surprised. We will just have to hope the blood clots gets him.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Nov 3, 2020 22:30:31 GMT -5
Colorado is going with Hickenlooper. That's a flip.
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oped
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Post by oped on Nov 3, 2020 22:38:46 GMT -5
But we lost one we thought we were going to keep.
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Nov 3, 2020 23:52:54 GMT -5
How the flip does Lindsey Graham gets to keep his seat?
Mind blown.... nope this is America after all.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 4, 2020 2:34:29 GMT -5
But we lost one we thought we were going to keep. which one is that?
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TheHaitian
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Post by TheHaitian on Nov 5, 2020 0:46:45 GMT -5
Folks WTF?
We need to get the senate because if we don’t all this would be a waste of time. McConnell is going to put a stop to everything and basically nothing moves.
DC and PR need to become states
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oped
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Post by oped on Nov 5, 2020 0:57:55 GMT -5
But we lost one we thought we were going to keep. which one is that? I think I made a mistake here...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2020 1:48:05 GMT -5
I still think Democrats could win 51, but it is a very twisty path, now. best hope is 50/50 in 2020
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