kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Jun 13, 2020 20:29:15 GMT -5
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 13, 2020 21:06:19 GMT -5
in he four "tossup" Senate races: 1) Maine: Collins has a commanding lead, with or without a 3rd party independent in the race in the ONE poll done to date. 2) Colorado: Hickenlooper has a commanding lead over Gardner. 3) NC: Smith has a comfortable lead over Tillis. 4) AZ: Kelley has been slowly expanding his very narrow lead over McSalley. this is the race with the MOST polling data in it- there have been six polls in the last 10 months. in short, the Democrats chances of retaking the Senate are likely to fall to Maine, and they are not looking very good there. but there is only one poll, and it is getting quite old at this juncture. it's interesting how much the landscape has changed since Jan. Colorado and AZ are not tossups anymore. they are now either leaning or safe Democrat. Maine and Iowa (not on this list) indicate a steady downturn for the incumbent. however, the primary has not yet been held in Maine, and that will strongly impact the chances of who wins. the establishment candidate has nearly a 10 point lead, but her main opponent is closely tied.
the NC race appears to me to be a true tossup, as well as MT, and possibly ME, as mentioned.
those three races would pad the Democrats chances of retaking the Senate. in a landslide year, they might end up with as many as 53. worst case scenario for Democrats?, Republicans hang on by a seat.
edit: based on today's polling, I would put the Democratic takeover at 7:5
I heard a rumor that McConnell is directing ad money for McSally, but she has a window to turn around her poll numbers, or else he will declare it a lost cause and put the funds elsewhere. I can't imagine AZ having both Senators be D's. If that isn't a sign for these far right looney-birds that have hijacked the Republican party, I'm not sure what it will take.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 13, 2020 21:34:29 GMT -5
it's interesting how much the landscape has changed since Jan. Colorado and AZ are not tossups anymore. they are now either leaning or safe Democrat. Maine and Iowa (not on this list) indicate a steady downturn for the incumbent. however, the primary has not yet been held in Maine, and that will strongly impact the chances of who wins. the establishment candidate has nearly a 10 point lead, but her main opponent is closely tied.
the NC race appears to me to be a true tossup, as well as MT, and possibly ME, as mentioned.
those three races would pad the Democrats chances of retaking the Senate. in a landslide year, they might end up with as many as 53. worst case scenario for Democrats?, Republicans hang on by a seat.
edit: based on today's polling, I would put the Democratic takeover at 7:5
I heard a rumor that McConnell is directing ad money for McSally, but she has a window to turn around her poll numbers, or else he will declare it a lost cause and put the funds elsewhere. I can't imagine AZ having both Senators be D's. If that isn't a sign for these far right looney-birds that have hijacked the Republican party, I'm not sure what it will take. her opponent has been widening the lead since the first poll. he now leads by 13.
keep in mind that she didn't win this seat. in fact, she lost it. and then was appointed.
Arizona never wanted her.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 13, 2020 22:08:42 GMT -5
I heard a rumor that McConnell is directing ad money for McSally, but she has a window to turn around her poll numbers, or else he will declare it a lost cause and put the funds elsewhere. I can't imagine AZ having both Senators be D's. If that isn't a sign for these far right looney-birds that have hijacked the Republican party, I'm not sure what it will take. her opponent has been widening the lead since the first poll. he now leads by 13.
keep in mind that she didn't win this seat. in fact, she lost it. and then was appointed.
Arizona never wanted her.
True, but she lost by a pretty small margin, less than 60k people. So, it isn't like none of Arizona wanted her. Just slightly more voters didn't want her. I know Kelly is doing well, but he has an anti-gun stance in a pro gun state. He isn't a slam dunk.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 13, 2020 22:10:53 GMT -5
her opponent has been widening the lead since the first poll. he now leads by 13.
keep in mind that she didn't win this seat. in fact, she lost it. and then was appointed.
Arizona never wanted her.
True, but she lost by a pretty small margin, less than 60k people. So, it isn't like none of Arizona wanted her. Just slightly more voters didn't want her. I know Kelly is doing well, but he has an anti-gun stance in a pro gun state. He isn't a slam dunk. might have something to do with the several rounds unloaded into his wife's head, yes?
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 14, 2020 10:02:03 GMT -5
True, but she lost by a pretty small margin, less than 60k people. So, it isn't like none of Arizona wanted her. Just slightly more voters didn't want her. I know Kelly is doing well, but he has an anti-gun stance in a pro gun state. He isn't a slam dunk. might have something to do with the several rounds unloaded into his wife's head, yes? Yup. If my spouse gets shot in the face point blank, I expect everyone to understand why I am anti-gun. You don't have to agree, but don't tell me why I am wrong, unless your spouse was also shot point blank in the face.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 20, 2020 3:46:39 GMT -5
I am moving the Senate race to 5:3 Democrats today.
the polling for Trump has been miserable, and it is dragging his supporters down.
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Jun 22, 2020 21:28:41 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 22, 2020 23:17:41 GMT -5
holy crap. hadn't seen that one. they have Biden +9
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 23, 2020 8:41:55 GMT -5
holy crap. hadn't seen that one. they have Biden +9 Wait he until he starts talking. Then it will go down. 😂😂
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 23, 2020 9:13:41 GMT -5
When your opponent continues to self-inflict wounds, no reason to do anything different. Biden can only hurt himself by talking. The negotiations for the debate should take forever, blame the virus, so he doesn't have to do them either. Trump is his own worst enemy right now, and the virus is preventing him from changing the subject. Just go with the flow.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 23, 2020 11:56:59 GMT -5
i think that pmd has it right. most people who are against Trump would vote for a sack of wet potatoes over Trump. wet potatoes are not known for their scintillating speeches, either.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 23, 2020 13:15:26 GMT -5
i think that pmd has it right. most people who are against Trump would vote for a sack of wet potatoes over Trump. wet potatoes are not known for their scintillating speeches, either. And we kinda got the human version of a sack of wet potatoes- so let's hope that theory holds up.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 23, 2020 13:28:31 GMT -5
i think that pmd has it right. most people who are against Trump would vote for a sack of wet potatoes over Trump. wet potatoes are not known for their scintillating speeches, either. And we kinda got the human version of a sack of wet potatoes- so let's hope that theory holds up. Boring sounds good about now. Had enough of chaos
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 2, 2020 0:56:08 GMT -5
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jul 2, 2020 9:46:18 GMT -5
That document is hard and I'm lazy. Is that for Senate? Or just on general?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 2, 2020 16:33:56 GMT -5
That document is hard and I'm lazy. Is that for Senate? Or just on general? it is a generic ballot. it is actually a really powerful indicator of party status.
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Bob Ross
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Post by Bob Ross on Jul 2, 2020 17:41:45 GMT -5
Bah, who needs numbers, stats and figures, and ratings when undying faith in the silent majority will see us through.😋
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 8, 2020 14:32:32 GMT -5
this is the no-toss-up map for the Senate. it shows D51 R49.
i think this is optimistic. i doubt that Democrats will beat Ernst.
that having been said, i expect a surprise or two, this time, and they are not likely going to be GOP surprises, based on how things are trending.
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html
edit: i apologize. i was a little hasty, here. Ernst is looking terrible in IA. a recent poll showed here down by 12%.
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Oct 8, 2020 14:47:33 GMT -5
I'm glad you found this... I got tired of looking for it yesterday. What I find hopeful is 538's national view on the senate race ( link). A month or so ago, I recall that it had Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 and 53 seats... now it is 55 seats.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 8, 2020 14:53:05 GMT -5
I'm glad you found this... I got tired of looking for it yesterday. What I find hopeful is 538's national view on the senate race ( link). A month or so ago, I recall that it had Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 and 53 seats... now it is 55 seats. they also show Biden at 85%. i disagree with that. i have him about 2:1.
my reason is that there is a lot that Trump can do to mess this up. I think that Nate Silver is assuming that this will be a normal election, where people are allowed to cast their votes unencumbered.
it won't be that way.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
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mary2029
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Post by mary2029 on Oct 8, 2020 15:11:46 GMT -5
Agreed. I have been thinking that 538 is a little too liberal (or hopeful for a liberal stance) the last few weeks. Real clear politics seems to be a bit more realistic. Anyway, that's why I like reading your posts on this and the presidential thread. Thanks for answering/responding to my ignorant questions/statements.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 8, 2020 15:29:13 GMT -5
i have gotten way more cynical in the last four years about prognosticators.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Oct 17, 2020 15:52:03 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 17, 2020 17:30:03 GMT -5
she is still a wild longshot.
but in better news, I think that the resident pig castrator of Iowa is quite vulnerable this time around.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 18, 2020 19:28:23 GMT -5
Senator Perdue (R) of Georgia pulled aTrumpian move by saying Kamala several times, all of them wrong and insulting.
Sure he gave the white good old boys a laugh but he further alienated women, blacks, and people who hate third grade bullies.
Ossoff is running good ads against him, refusing to accept PAC money, playing clips of Perdue minimizing the virus, and pointing out that Perdue attended a secret meeting with the president in March and found out how bad the virus was, and his first action was to sell hotel and casino stock and buy stock in Netflix and pharma.
If Perdue keeps running his mouth, Ossoff might win.
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tcu2003
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Post by tcu2003 on Oct 18, 2020 19:57:38 GMT -5
I’m in Kansas, and we at least have a better shot than anytime in recent memory (or really, my lifetime) to send a Democratic senator to Washington, but based on the link above, looks like Roger Marshall is favored again. Whatever poll I was looking at a week or two ago had Barbara Bollier up, but still within the margin of error. If she does win, it’ll be because of 3-4 counties. I’d love to see her win, and definitely see way more of her signs up, but I’m also in a county that will likely vote for her.
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Oct 18, 2020 20:06:07 GMT -5
Senator Perdue (R) of Georgia pulled aTrumpian move by saying Kamala several times, all of them wrong and insulting. Sure he gave the white good old boys a laugh but he further alienated women, blacks, and people who hate third grade bullies. Ossoff is running good ads against him, refusing to accept PAC money, playing clips of Perdue minimizing the virus, and pointing out that Perdue attended a secret meeting with the president in March and found out how bad the virus was, and his first action was to sell hotel and casino stock and buy stock in Netflix and pharma. If Perdue keeps running his mouth, Ossoff might win. I've also heard that Warnock (D-Ga.) is leading both Loeffler & Collins in the other Senate race in Ga. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he gets more than 50%.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 18, 2020 20:22:33 GMT -5
Senator Perdue (R) of Georgia pulled aTrumpian move by saying Kamala several times, all of them wrong and insulting. Sure he gave the white good old boys a laugh but he further alienated women, blacks, and people who hate third grade bullies. Ossoff is running good ads against him, refusing to accept PAC money, playing clips of Perdue minimizing the virus, and pointing out that Perdue attended a secret meeting with the president in March and found out how bad the virus was, and his first action was to sell hotel and casino stock and buy stock in Netflix and pharma. If Perdue keeps running his mouth, Ossoff might win. I've also heard that Warnock (D-Ga.) is leading both Loeffler & Collins in the other Senate race in Ga. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he gets more than 50%. Yes - I hope enough people remember his name, because there’s like 15 people listed on that one race. I wish they could have listed him as Reverend Warnick, that would help people like me with bad memories. Loeffler is another one who moved stocks to cash in on Covid. And she just seems to stand there like a blond Barbie, grinning in her commercials.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Oct 24, 2020 12:42:50 GMT -5
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