billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 8, 2020 11:28:11 GMT -5
“I heard it today that she doesn’t meet the requirements,” Trump told reporters at a White House briefing on Thursday. link
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 8, 2020 12:02:17 GMT -5
there are three really interesting states right now: Texas, NC, and GA these ALL surprise me for different reasons. NC should be a shoo-in for Biden, and he is struggling there. GA and TX should be a shoo-in for Trump, and he is struggling there. I am trying to understand WHY these are the way they are, so if any of you can comment, I would appreciate it. for Georgia it’s the suburbs. Two large mostly white counties north of Atlanta (Cobb and Gwinnett) which usually go GOP went for Clinton in 2016. If the dems get them again, plus if a lot of black voters come out for Biden, he could get GA.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 8, 2020 12:06:52 GMT -5
I just got into it with a trump supporter at the drug store. He actually told me that Harris could not be president if Biden died because of her lineage. I said what are you talking about? He said Pelosi would have to be instead and she scares him to death. I said Harris is a citizen or she could not run. Where are these folks getting this stuff? I need to be quiet, I am just appalled at the lack of knowledge of those folks. Sorry I'm on a rant, again. Last election we had some people who kept writing to the local newspaper claiming it is illegal to not vote a straight ticket. Vote only for Dems, or vote for the GOP, but you can’t vote a mixed ticket. They must have skipped civics in school.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Sept 8, 2020 12:27:48 GMT -5
I just got into it with a trump supporter at the drug store. He actually told me that Harris could not be president if Biden died because of her lineage. I said what are you talking about? He said Pelosi would have to be instead and she scares him to death. I said Harris is a citizen or she could not run. Where are these folks getting this stuff? I need to be quiet, I am just appalled at the lack of knowledge of those folks. Sorry I'm on a rant, again. Last election we had some people who kept writing to the local newspaper claiming it is illegal to not vote a straight ticket. Vote only for Dems, or vote for the GOP, but you can’t vote a mixed ticket. They must have skipped civics in school. Or they're thinking of the primaries. I'm fairly sure my state's primaries are straight ticket.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 8, 2020 13:02:36 GMT -5
Last election we had some people who kept writing to the local newspaper claiming it is illegal to not vote a straight ticket. Vote only for Dems, or vote for the GOP, but you can’t vote a mixed ticket. They must have skipped civics in school. Or they're thinking of the primaries. I'm fairly sure my state's primaries are straight ticket. FWIW (poli sci major here): The proper term would be a "closed primary" - when one is limited to vote in only the party primary of whatever party they identify themselves as belonging.
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 8, 2020 13:17:37 GMT -5
Primaries are usually just one party. That is where just the registered party members vote on who they want to put in the general. In some states you don't have to be registered, but usually you can only vote in either Republicans or Democrat. You can't do both. You can't vote for a non-Republican in the Republican primary, as they wont be on the ballot.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 8, 2020 13:31:58 GMT -5
Primaries are usually just one party. That is where just the registered party members vote on who they want to put in the general. In some states you don't have to be registered, but usually you can only vote in either Republicans or Democrat. You can't do both. You can't vote for a non-Republican in the Republican primary, as they wont be on the ballot. Here is a link with great information for those who are interested: State Primary Election Types
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Post by countrygirl2 on Sept 8, 2020 14:12:48 GMT -5
I told the guy if it hadn't been for pelosi he would have had no stimulus and no health care. They have no idea, I didn't get the chance to tell him much more but what trump is doing to the military and how he made fun of a disabled reporter. He was all bent out of shape about her tearing up the state of the union. Not a good moment but I understand why she did it, but probably should have not.
He started it or I would have said nothing. He goes I think this virus is engineered. He said they want to get rid of old people so they can't draw SS. Well that backfired on him. I said I wouldn't doubt it a bit that trump caused that, as its killing tons of minorities, and trump doesn't care about that. You should have seen his face, noone had ever told him this kind of stuff before. I hope he thinks about it.
The pharmacist came out to give us our shots and he moved on. DD did get her flu shot. I was hot, I whispered to the pharmacist I hope he wasn't a trump supporter. He said I have to be apolitical here, but no I'm not. He said my mom and I got into it about him last night. We had to talk low. He is younger and he and I used to have discussions when he worked at the other pharmacy, a really nice guy.
Ok, about ready to go out again, I need to water those poor strawberries, they are DRY.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 8, 2020 14:13:42 GMT -5
I just got into it with a trump supporter at the drug store. He actually told me that Harris could not be president if Biden died because of her lineage. I said what are you talking about? He said Pelosi would have to be instead and she scares him to death. I said Harris is a citizen or she could not run. Where are these folks getting this stuff? I need to be quiet, I am just appalled at the lack of knowledge of those folks. Sorry I'm on a rant, again. Newsweek. Some Questions for Kamala Harris About EligibilityI encourage folks to read the editors note on that article, rather than the article itself.
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Sept 8, 2020 14:20:15 GMT -5
I did get the opportunity to tell him trump was a no good treasonous SOB. I said listen to his sons they already said they can get all the money they want from Russia. I said you think putin does that with no strings? I know this guy had never heard any of this before. Like I said you could see his face. He like me said we had both voted for different parties over time. But I told him the repub party is responsible for trumps excesses, they could have stopped him. I said the only thing is if he gets in again his supporters will be treated as bad as the rest of us as he won't care, has nothing to lose.
I hope he goes home and thinks about it, but probably not.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 8, 2020 14:23:06 GMT -5
I encourage folks to read the editors note on that article, rather than the article itself.
Gaining awareness of the false argument used against her eligibility is good thing in my opinion so I encourage people to read both.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 8, 2020 15:00:22 GMT -5
Last election we had some people who kept writing to the local newspaper claiming it is illegal to not vote a straight ticket. Vote only for Dems, or vote for the GOP, but you can’t vote a mixed ticket. They must have skipped civics in school. Or they're thinking of the primaries. I'm fairly sure my state's primaries are straight ticket. They knew exactly what they were doing - a popular ex sheriff was the Dem running again a serial bankrupt goober who was a GOPer. This was when Obama was on the ticket, not popular in this rural southern mostly white area, so goobers supporters kept mailing letters to the paper stating if you voted for the ex-sheriff you we’re legally obligated to vote for Obama. Of course the serially bankrupt goober won and has probably been siphoning cash from the country ever since. That’s what happens when a whole town believes rumor and internet claptrap.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 8, 2020 15:01:26 GMT -5
I encourage folks to read the editors note on that article, rather than the article itself.
Gaining awareness of the false argument used against her eligibility is good thing in my opinion so I encourage people to read both. i read dozens of articles about this and wrote hundreds (thousands?) of posts about this when it was Obama, McCain, and Cruz that were called into question rather than Harris. i was being generous and assuming that others here have, as well.
if you haven't, the argument against everyone listed above is kinda fundamentally stupid. there is no formal definition for "natural born" or "native born", so these terms have been debated in the courts. the best case is probably the Ark case from 1898. you can read about that, if you are like me, and develop unhealthy obsessions with political issues.
i think this really amounts to whether you view the amendments as superseding the original(ist) text of the constitution. i think that anyone who understands how amendments work in legal documents agrees that it does. and if it does, then the 14th amendment is superseding law.
if we all agree with that, then it devolves to an even STUPIDER argument about what "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" means. simply put it means "adherent to the laws of the US". and clearly, Harris and her parents were at the time of her birth.
it really is pretty simple. but racists get hung up on the vocabulary.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 8, 2020 18:34:25 GMT -5
Gaining awareness of the false argument used against her eligibility is good thing in my opinion so I encourage people to read both. i read dozens of articles about this and wrote hundreds (thousands?) of posts about this when it was Obama, McCain, and Cruz that were called into question rather than Harris. i was being generous and assuming that others here have, as well.
if you haven't, the argument against everyone listed above is kinda fundamentally stupid. there is no formal definition for "natural born" or "native born", so these terms have been debated in the courts. the best case is probably the Ark case from 1898. you can read about that, if you are like me, and develop unhealthy obsessions with political issues.
i think this really amounts to whether you view the amendments as superseding the original(ist) text of the constitution. i think that anyone who understands how amendments work in legal documents agrees that it does. and if it does, then the 14th amendment is superseding law.
if we all agree with that, then it devolves to an even STUPIDER argument about what "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" means. simply put it means "adherent to the laws of the US". and clearly, Harris and her parents were at the time of her birth.
it really is pretty simple. but racists get hung up on the vocabulary.
Wasn't there questions with Goldwater too? He was born in the AZ territory 3 years before statehood. Was he American enough? (Apparently not, given the outcome of the election! 😁)
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Post by kadee79 on Sept 8, 2020 19:41:05 GMT -5
Or they're thinking of the primaries. I'm fairly sure my state's primaries are straight ticket. They knew exactly what they were doing - a popular ex sheriff was the Dem running again a serial bankrupt goober who was a GOPer. This was when Obama was on the ticket, not popular in this rural southern mostly white area, so goobers supporters kept mailing letters to the paper stating if you voted for the ex-sheriff you we’re legally obligated to vote for Obama. Of course the serially bankrupt goober won and has probably been siphoning cash from the country ever since. That’s what happens when a whole town believes rumor and internet claptrap. www.usnews.com/news/best-states/georgiaWhen we go to vote in a primary in Ga., we declare which ballot we want...GOP, Democrat or Independent. We are not registered with any party like some states.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 9, 2020 7:56:10 GMT -5
They knew exactly what they were doing - a popular ex sheriff was the Dem running again a serial bankrupt goober who was a GOPer. This was when Obama was on the ticket, not popular in this rural southern mostly white area, so goobers supporters kept mailing letters to the paper stating if you voted for the ex-sheriff you we’re legally obligated to vote for Obama. Of course the serially bankrupt goober won and has probably been siphoning cash from the country ever since. That’s what happens when a whole town believes rumor and internet claptrap. www.usnews.com/news/best-states/georgiaWhen we go to vote in a primary in Ga., we declare which ballot we want...GOP, Democrat or Independent. We are not registered with any party like some states. Yes - for the primaries. This was main election . The goober supporters were trying to spread the rumor that if you voted a mixed ticket in the main election you would either go to jail or your vote wouldn’t count at all. This was because a popular ex sheriff was running as a dem against a ridiculous gop candidate on the same ballot as the presidential contest. They were hoping that the locals would be so scared their vote would count as a vote for Dems if they voted for the ex sheriff that they would vote for the ridiculous GOP sheriff candidate instead.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 9, 2020 22:01:46 GMT -5
you know what. I am going to retract what I said earlier.
I don't think that the odds on Biden have slipped. YES, the national polling is closer. but that is because he is slipping in the red states, MOSTLY. he is quite stable elsewhere. the state polling is very stable. and what I failed to factor in is that TIME is also slipping.
538 shares my opinion. in fact, they have Biden at 3:1, which I think is crazy, frankly.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
of course, they might be right. who knows? he's better at this than I am. but he was also wrong last time, so I hope he learned.
PS- 538 shows Biden's share of the vote and odds rising in the last few weeks, and now standing at their highest level since mid-July. that tells me that I am not reading the tea leaves right. I should not be growing more cautious. having said that, I am not growing more bold, either.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 10, 2020 6:47:22 GMT -5
How long before we see the polls showing the aftermath of this Woodward thing? I don’t expect much change, maybe a point or two. The Trump minions don’t pay attention to the news.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2020 14:05:38 GMT -5
How long before we see the polls showing the aftermath of this Woodward thing? I don’t expect much change, maybe a point or two. The Trump minions don’t pay attention to the news. I don't expect much movement.
you know what is interesting? in the last month BOTH candidates have gone up 1%. they are soaking up the undecided vote. and that is bad news for Trump, because he is now trailing by 7.5% with only 6.5% of the vote undecided.
that is another reason to backtrack on my odds.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2020 14:06:52 GMT -5
oh, for those of you that didn't go to the 538, the MODE (most probable outcome) for the electoral vote is about 4:1 Biden. again, I don't expect it, but that is what the math says.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 10, 2020 14:35:46 GMT -5
So if there were 5 elections held, the probable outcomes would be Biden wins the eletoral vote 4 times and Trump 1 time. However since there will only be one election, we won't know how 4 additional elections would turn out.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2020 14:59:36 GMT -5
So if there were 5 elections held, the probable outcomes would be Biden wins the eletoral vote 4 times and Trump 1 time. no, sorry that was unclear. i was talking about the EV, not the odds in that last post, bills. in other words, the MODE of the possible outcomes is HIGHEST on the portion of the graph that has Biden with over 400 EV.
make sense?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 10, 2020 15:29:30 GMT -5
So if there were 5 elections held, the probable outcomes would be Biden wins the eletoral vote 4 times and Trump 1 time. no, sorry that was unclear. i was talking about the EV, not the odds in that last post, bills. in other words, the MODE of the possible outcomes is HIGHEST on the portion of the graph that has Biden with over 400 EV.
make sense?
No. The mode is a single number. I did find a graph Here which shows were the mode of 40,000 simulations appears to possibly be a number over 400 (one around 335 looks to be a contender as well). Not sure with the distribution shown that mode is a meaningful indicator of amygdala.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2020 21:02:09 GMT -5
no, sorry that was unclear. i was talking about the EV, not the odds in that last post, bills. in other words, the MODE of the possible outcomes is HIGHEST on the portion of the graph that has Biden with over 400 EV.
make sense?
No. The mode is a single number. I did find a graph Here which shows were the mode of 40,000 simulations appears to possibly be a number over 400 (one around 335 looks to be a contender as well). Not sure with the distribution shown that mode is a meaningful indicator of amygdala. no to what? you basically said that the highest number of possibilities was over 400 EV for Biden, and that the second highest was 335, right?
that is actually what I was trying to say, bills.
listen, if you like to disagree, that is cool. you can have it. I found the data interesting. you seem to find it useless. I am actually not sure I disagree with that. I just like data.
do you?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 10, 2020 21:36:03 GMT -5
No. The mode is a single number. I did find a graph Here which shows were the mode of 40,000 simulations appears to possibly be a number over 400 (one around 335 looks to be a contender as well). Not sure with the distribution shown that mode is a meaningful indicator of amygdala. no to what? you basically said that the highest number of possibilities was over 400 EV for Biden, and that the second highest was 335, right?
that is actually what I was trying to say, bills.
listen, if you like to disagree, that is cool. you can have it. I found the data interesting. you seem to find it useless. I am actually not sure I disagree with that. I just like data.
do you?
I noted the mode could have been the one line on the graph that was over 400 but it might have been the one around 330. The graph was not detailed enough to be positive. All that means is that one specific number came up more than other specific numbers. If you look at all the other possibilities, it is clear that there are more possible outcomes below 400 than above it. You are misreading what the graph shows.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2020 22:03:49 GMT -5
no to what? you basically said that the highest number of possibilities was over 400 EV for Biden, and that the second highest was 335, right?
that is actually what I was trying to say, bills.
listen, if you like to disagree, that is cool. you can have it. I found the data interesting. you seem to find it useless. I am actually not sure I disagree with that. I just like data.
do you?
I noted the mode could have been the one line on the graph that was over 400 but it might have been the one around 330. The graph was not detailed enough to be positive. All that means is that one specific number came up more than other specific numbers. If you look at all the other possibilities, it is clear that there are more possible outcomes below 400 than above it. You are misreading what the graph shows. let's cut this short. do you agree that the mode on that graph is over 400 EV for Biden, or not? I think it is fairly clear that it is.
that was my ONLY point, bills. nothing about odds, whatsoever.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 10, 2020 22:08:33 GMT -5
I noted the mode could have been the one line on the graph that was over 400 but it might have been the one around 330. The graph was not detailed enough to be positive. All that means is that one specific number came up more than other specific numbers. If you look at all the other possibilities, it is clear that there are more possible outcomes below 400 than above it. You are misreading what the graph shows. let's cut this short. do you agree that the mode on that graph is over 400 EV for Biden, or not? I noted the mode could have been the one line on the graph that was over 400 but it might have been the one around 330. The graph was not detailed enough to be positive.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 10, 2020 22:14:25 GMT -5
let's cut this short. do you agree that the mode on that graph is over 400 EV for Biden, or not? I noted the mode could have been the one line on the graph that was over 400 but it might have been the one around 330. The graph was not detailed enough to be positive. thanks, bills. I think it is clearly higher. you don't. I accept that.
edit: I should add that I find that really surprising, if I have not said so already.
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 10, 2020 22:56:34 GMT -5
I noted the mode could have been the one line on the graph that was over 400 but it might have been the one around 330. The graph was not detailed enough to be positive. thanks, bills. I think it is clearly higher. you don't. I accept that.
edit: I should add that I find that really surprising, if I have not said so already.
Some of the bars represent really weird outcomes, but you never know!
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Post by pooks on Sept 11, 2020 14:40:08 GMT -5
This election is so hard to predict. With Covid things are so different from past elections.
I just read a poll where Biden is ahead with college students, not a surprise. But college students have an earned reputation for not voting and this year a number of them are home, because their classes are online. I am not sure if them being home is good, bad, or indifferent as far as getting them to vote, but it is different.
I also think Covid has forced some young people to move, as they couldn't afford their rent. Have they updated their voter registration?
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