happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 19, 2020 6:49:24 GMT -5
It looks like a lot of incumbents lost their primaries yesterday, are there any trends there or simply voters disgusted with the current state of government ?
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Aug 19, 2020 6:57:28 GMT -5
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Aug 19, 2020 18:00:34 GMT -5
I wonder if trump will bring back the USA Freedom Kids to entertain during his virtual convention. The girls have probably aged out to interest donald trump but maybe he can trick them again into entertaining Republicans for free. Didn't they get stiffed payment-wise? Or am I thinking of other acts that had to go to court to get paid?
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Aug 19, 2020 18:05:40 GMT -5
It looks like a lot of incumbents lost their primaries yesterday, are there any trends there or simply voters disgusted with the current state of government ? I only saw a few, but I could be working off outdated info. I heard there were 8 total, 5 Republicans. And at least 2 of those R's are because they were not conservative enough. 🙄
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 19, 2020 18:08:05 GMT -5
I wonder if trump will bring back the USA Freedom Kids to entertain during his virtual convention. The girls have probably aged out to interest donald trump but maybe he can trick them again into entertaining Republicans for free. Didn't they get stiffed payment-wise? Or am I thinking of other acts that had to go to court to get paid? trump stiffed them.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 26, 2020 9:49:13 GMT -5
Unfortunately it looks like hurricane Laura is going to be a category 3 when it makes landfall - could be very dangerous. Having to reduce the number of people on each evacuation bus due to Covid is an additional complication.
Interesting to see how trump handles it, and if that will help or hurt his election chances
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 26, 2020 9:50:00 GMT -5
By the way, wasn’t anonymous going to out himself prior to the election?
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Aug 26, 2020 22:09:09 GMT -5
Unfortunately it looks like hurricane Laura is going to be a category 3 when it makes landfall - could be very dangerous. Having to reduce the number of people on each evacuation bus due to Covid is an additional complication. Interesting to see how trump handles it, and if that will help or hurt his election chances "I take no responsibility".
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2020 15:56:24 GMT -5
I hear some Democrats worrying about Biden in places like Michigan, so I took some time this afternoon to review a few purple states. let's start with Michigan.
in Michigan, Biden has lead since I started tracking the polling in March. initially, Trump was pretty close there, but as time wore on, Biden eventually had a commanding double digit lead in late June. on July 22nd, a poll came out which showed Trump up 4%, and since then, Biden has lead by 7-8%. although there is recent deterioration in Biden's lead, it is all accruing to undecided, not to Trump. the undecided vote is quite large in Michigan, but only half of what it was last time. even if the undecided vote goes 2:1 for Trump, he would lose by 4%, there if the vote was held today.
I STILL think the entire basket of eggs is Florida for Trump. I can't think of any way he can win (due to demographic linkeage) without winning Florida. and he is trailing there, trailing consistently, and has gained ZERO ground there in the last 3 weeks. furthermore, the undecided vote is even smaller in FL than in MI. if it breaks for Trump as it did in the last election, he would lose by 3% if the vote were held today- and with as little GOOD as is happening there for him, I would very much NOT count on it.
I could go through the other states. but I think the most interesting one is still North Carolina, which is too close to call, and will likely remain that way right up until election day.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2020 16:06:16 GMT -5
PS- on a separate note of unknown but probably considerable importance, is the fact that only TWO presidents have had approval numbers lower than Trump at this point in their term in the last half century:
Carter and GHWB
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justme
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Post by justme on Aug 29, 2020 16:54:22 GMT -5
I hear some Democrats worrying about Biden in places like Michigan, so I took some time this afternoon to review a few purple states. let's start with Michigan. in Michigan, Biden has lead since I started tracking the polling in March. initially, Trump was pretty close there, but as time wore on, Biden eventually had a commanding double digit lead in late June. on July 22nd, a poll came out which showed Trump up 4%, and since then, Biden has lead by 7-8%. although there is recent deterioration in Biden's lead, it is all accruing to undecided, not to Trump. the undecided vote is quite large in Michigan, but only half of what it was last time. even if the undecided vote goes 2:1 for Trump, he would lose by 4%, there if the vote was held today. I STILL think the entire basket of eggs is Florida for Trump. I can't think of any way he can win (due to demographic linkeage) without winning Florida. and he is trailing there, trailing consistently, and has gained ZERO ground there in the last 3 weeks. furthermore, the undecided vote is even smaller in FL than in MI. if it breaks for Trump as it did in the last election, he would lose by 3% if the vote were held today- and with as little GOOD as is happening there for him, I would very much NOT count on it. I could go through the other states. but I think the most interesting one is still North Carolina, which is too close to call, and will likely remain that way right up until election day. His big problem with Florida is a lot of people there hate desantis right now and he's all buddy buddy with trump and half their hate comes from desantis following trump's say so. Another chunk hate desantis and scott for the unemployment debacle - which both lead back to trump. And there's not really a silver lining yet because tourism is being hit hard. I know Florida unemployment is back on the rise - theme parks are getting to the point of making furloughs permanent layoffs, the ports are talking about laying off a lot of people due to cruises not happening, I'm sure a chunk of the people airlines lay off will be in Florida too since we have so many less flights due to lack of tourists.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2020 20:47:25 GMT -5
I seriously think Florida is IT for him.
for those of you that don't remember this state in 2016, I never called it for Clinton. ever. the polling was just way too close. the polling was tied there in July, September, and November.
let's contrast this to 2020. Trump has not been tied there since APRIL 3RD. it remained fairly close until mid-June there. since that time, Trump has never been closer than 5%, and he has not moved the needle in THREE WEEKS.
I wouldn't be optimistic, if I were Trump. you can move the polls about 1% per week in Florida, so he has about a month to close the gap, or he is toast there. he might be toast already, since he has not been able to close the gap since April.
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Aug 29, 2020 21:33:35 GMT -5
I think he's on his way to make a fatal mistake in Wisconsin. Being pro violence against black protestors is a great way to get the black vote out in Wisconsin for Biden.
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Aug 29, 2020 21:50:10 GMT -5
Yes, but I worry about the vote getting in. With all trump is doing and his chronies to suppress and keep it from getting in, well, I worry.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 30, 2020 0:41:09 GMT -5
Yes, but I worry about the vote getting in. With all trump is doing and his chronies to suppress and keep it from getting in, well, I worry. I think that is fair, but in the past, the GOP has had a higher percent of mail in than Democrats.
is it not possible that the GOP will LOSE more votes if the mail in vote is suppressed?
I am asking as someone who GENUINELY doesn't know.
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 1, 2020 16:32:56 GMT -5
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Sept 1, 2020 19:20:28 GMT -5
Don’t get cop shot in a blue state. Just sayin’.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2020 23:03:42 GMT -5
$4m? is that some kind of sick joke?
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 2, 2020 5:34:33 GMT -5
Gotta get those check out ASAP: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is hoping to give vulnerable GOP colleagues political cover by voting as soon as next week on a pared-down Republican bill that would provide coronavirus relief to schools, businesses and unemployed Americans. The GOP leader told fellow Senate Republicans during a conference call Tuesday morning with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows that senators in tough races want to vote on a rescue package ASAP, according to a person familiar with the call. "McConnell wants it. McConnell said today is that every member who's up [for reelection] who has any hint of vulnerability wants a bill that gets 51 votes," the source said on Tuesday. www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mcconnell-seeks-to-protect-vulnerable-republicans-with-covid-19-vote/ar-BB18CX0C?ocid=msedgntp
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tbop77
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Post by tbop77 on Sept 2, 2020 5:35:46 GMT -5
Don’t get cop shot in a blue state. Just sayin’. Isn't that the truth?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 2, 2020 8:16:20 GMT -5
Gotta get those check out ASAP: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is hoping to give vulnerable GOP colleagues political cover by voting as soon as next week on a pared-down Republican bill that would provide coronavirus relief to schools, businesses and unemployed Americans. The GOP leader told fellow Senate Republicans during a conference call Tuesday morning with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows that senators in tough races want to vote on a rescue package ASAP, according to a person familiar with the call. "McConnell wants it. McConnell said today is that every member who's up [for reelection] who has any hint of vulnerability wants a bill that gets 51 votes," the source said on Tuesday. www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mcconnell-seeks-to-protect-vulnerable-republicans-with-covid-19-vote/ar-BB18CX0C?ocid=msedgntp This will not result in checks being sent. The Republican majority in the Senate currently has no agreed upon stimulus plan. Nothing. This is simply an attempt to give individual Senators some cover with their constituents back home. I am sure it isn't playing well when those in tight races have to admit that fact.
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Icelandic Woman
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Sept 3, 2020 11:07:10 GMT -5
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Icelandic Woman
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Sept 3, 2020 11:07:43 GMT -5
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Icelandic Woman
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Sept 3, 2020 11:08:07 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 7, 2020 13:46:36 GMT -5
so, for the past couple of weeks, I have been sensing some Democrats getting worried about this election. and it is GOOD for them to worry. please don't misunderstand anything I am to say further on this subject. worry is way better than complacency, and complacency will cost them the election, imo.
but I don't see much in the polling to justify it. sure, Biden's lead is down from 9% to 7.5% on the strength of the GOP convention. but keep in mind that Biden's polling has not really slipped AT ALL. the gain is 100% in the fence sitters that are squarely in Trump's camp. they will probably never vote for Biden. the only hope is that they might stay home, if you are Biden.
if anything, the drift SINCE the conventions has been slightly toward Biden.
I think the outcome is the same, if the vote were held today. and I think that Trump is running out of time to catch up. in 2016 he was basically TIED with Clinton on September 15th. it is not going to be anywhere close to that on September 15th, 2020.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 7, 2020 16:03:08 GMT -5
there are three really interesting states right now:
Texas, NC, and GA
these ALL surprise me for different reasons.
NC should be a shoo-in for Biden, and he is struggling there. GA and TX should be a shoo-in for Trump, and he is struggling there.
I am trying to understand WHY these are the way they are, so if any of you can comment, I would appreciate it.
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justme
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Post by justme on Sept 8, 2020 9:12:43 GMT -5
Been seeing this and variations of it for the last few days. Cracks me up.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Sept 8, 2020 10:49:57 GMT -5
Allan Lichtman Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready to Call 2020. nyti.ms/30tXQ28You have to stay all the way to the end - when he puts an asterisk on it. It is a 7 minute video, but super easy to listen to - a good explanation of his process.
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Sept 8, 2020 11:14:08 GMT -5
I just got into it with a trump supporter at the drug store. He actually told me that Harris could not be president if Biden died because of her lineage. I said what are you talking about? He said Pelosi would have to be instead and she scares him to death. I said Harris is a citizen or she could not run. Where are these folks getting this stuff? I need to be quiet, I am just appalled at the lack of knowledge of those folks. Sorry I'm on a rant, again.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 8, 2020 11:24:16 GMT -5
I just got into it with a trump supporter at the drug store. He actually told me that Harris could not be president if Biden died because of her lineage. I said what are you talking about? He said Pelosi would have to be instead and she scares him to death. I said Harris is a citizen or she could not run. Where are these folks getting this stuff? I need to be quiet, I am just appalled at the lack of knowledge of those folks. Sorry I'm on a rant, again. Newsweek. Some Questions for Kamala Harris About Eligibility
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