happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 12, 2020 7:59:14 GMT -5
Meanwhile, in other primary news, my district picked a QAnon nut job for the GOP candidate. And she’s racist.
And since this district is beet red we’re fucked.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 12, 2020 8:19:11 GMT -5
Meanwhile, in other primary news, my district picked a QAnon nut job for the GOP candidate. And she’s racist. And since this district is beet red we’re fucked. She may be marginalized and isolated by her Republican peers in the HoR.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Aug 12, 2020 9:00:32 GMT -5
yeah, maybe. I wish I could be more optimistic. the national polling (which is done with greater regularity) shows Biden dropping off slightly. however, if you weight it based on polling quality, the movement is very slight. he was ahead by about 9.5% around July 4th, and since Trump started his reopening fest, Biden dropped about 2%, but has since regained 1% due to the pushback. I see a winning path for Trump, but it is getting really narrow. it would involve continuing to play down the virus and hoping that everything went right IN SPITE OF THAT. I'm going to continue to be paranoid that he'll win until we get the results on Election Night.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 12, 2020 9:04:11 GMT -5
yeah, maybe. I wish I could be more optimistic. the national polling (which is done with greater regularity) shows Biden dropping off slightly. however, if you weight it based on polling quality, the movement is very slight. he was ahead by about 9.5% around July 4th, and since Trump started his reopening fest, Biden dropped about 2%, but has since regained 1% due to the pushback. I see a winning path for Trump, but it is getting really narrow. it would involve continuing to play down the virus and hoping that everything went right IN SPITE OF THAT. I'm going to continue to be paranoid that he'll win until we get the results on Election Night. I am not that optimistic. I won't be fully convinced until I wake up January 21, 2021 and check the news.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 12, 2020 9:10:45 GMT -5
Meanwhile, in other primary news, my district picked a QAnon nut job for the GOP candidate. And she’s racist. And since this district is beet red we’re fucked. She may be marginalized and isolated by her Republican peers in the HoR. Yes but whenever the media wants to run a clip of the most wingnut member of Congress, there she will be, running her mouth about deep states and conspiracies, making our district look bad. Like how your drunk uncle mooning everyone at the McDonalds drive through makes your family look like hill people.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 12, 2020 9:29:26 GMT -5
She may be marginalized and isolated by her Republican peers in the HoR. Yes but whenever the media wants to run a clip of the most wingnut member of Congress, there she will be, running her mouth about deep states and conspiracies, making our district look bad. Like how your drunk uncle mooning everyone at the McDonalds drive through makes your family look like hill people. Your district might not be the only wingnut district in Congress if Republican and QAnon member Lauren Boebert of Colorado's 3rd District wins in November. Boebert beat her Republican rival five-tetm Congressman Scott Tipton in the state's primary by 10,000 votes.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 12, 2020 9:37:37 GMT -5
She may be marginalized and isolated by her Republican peers in the HoR. Yes but whenever the media wants to run a clip of the most wingnut member of Congress, there she will be, running her mouth about deep states and conspiracies, making our district look bad. Like how your drunk uncle mooning everyone at the McDonalds drive through makes your family look like hill people. From Twitter: You can add Marjorie Taylor Greene to that list.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 12, 2020 10:57:22 GMT -5
Yes but whenever the media wants to run a clip of the most wingnut member of Congress, there she will be, running her mouth about deep states and conspiracies, making our district look bad. Like how your drunk uncle mooning everyone at the McDonalds drive through makes your family look like hill people. From Twitter: You can add Marjorie Taylor Greene to that list. Oh great. They can have their own tin foil hat group meetings
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Aug 12, 2020 11:34:25 GMT -5
There are conflicting data reports, but tossup is a good way to peg it for now, at least officially. However I will say that Maine almost never splits it's vote the way it did in 2016. The cities are going to go for Biden, and I am guessing they will by a margin to do the trick. We'll see! I am showing ME1 20 points more blue than ME2. that seems utterly bizarre to me based on this response.
2nd District is def more conservative, but has always been able to vote for a middle road- cons. Dem. Of course, we could have a new dynamic since 2016 witrh older Dems falling away in the old mill towns, but we also have had a great surge in Dem registrants this year. we'll see if the likes of Lewiston, Bangor and Waterville can bring it home!
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 12, 2020 15:38:58 GMT -5
So she hadn’t even been officially elected yet and Marjorie Green is getting sued for her tin hat conspiracy theories.
The step mom of the Atlanta cop charged with killing Rayshard Brooks got terminated by her employer BEFORE her step son shot Brooks. Because she racist and sexual comments to coworkers.
Stepmom starts complaining that she was wrongfully terminated for being step mom to a cop. Green , the QAnon nut, claimed the company’caved to the mob’ . The company got hate mail, threats and their website was swamped.
So the company is suing both the mom and green for creating a smear Campaign they knew was based on a lie in order to capitalize on Brooks death.
I hope they win a jillion dollars.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 12, 2020 16:06:09 GMT -5
So she hadn’t even been officially elected yet and Marjorie Green is getting sued for her tin hat conspiracy theories. The step mom of the Atlanta cop charged with killing Rayshard Brooks got terminated by her employer BEFORE her step son shot Brooks. Because she racist and sexual comments to coworkers. Stepmom starts complaining that she was wrongfully terminated for being step mom to a cop. Green , the QAnon nut, claimed the company’caved to the mob’ . The company got hate mail, threats and their website was swamped. So the company is suing both the mom and green for creating a smear Campaign they knew was based on a lie in order to capitalize on Brooks death. I hope they win a jillion dollars. Marjorie Taylor Greene is right at home in trump world. Trump calls QAnon GOP primary winner a 'future Republican Star'President Trump on Wednesday offered his full-throated support for a Georgia congressional candidate who has made incendiary comments about Black people and Muslims and believes in the QAnon conspiracy theory. "Congratulations to future Republican Star Marjorie Taylor Greene on a big songressional primary win in Georgia against a very tough and smart opponent," Trump tweeted. "Marjorie is strong on everything and never gives up — a real WINNER!" She has garnered national attention after Politico unearthed past racist, anti-Semitic and Islamophobic comments she made, including comparing Democratic donor George Soros to a Nazi, saying the 2018 midterms were like an “Islamic invasion of our government” and asserting that African Americans "are held slaves to the Democratic Party." Greene also gained attention over comments in which she expressed support for QAnon, a conspiracy theory that posits that President Trump and his allies are working together to expose and arrest an underground cabal of global elites who control the government and run sex trafficking rings. Trump calls QAnon GOP primary winner a 'future Republican Star'
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 12, 2020 17:15:57 GMT -5
I am showing ME1 20 points more blue than ME2. that seems utterly bizarre to me based on this response.
2nd District is def more conservative, but has always been able to vote for a middle road- cons. Dem. Of course, we could have a new dynamic since 2016 witrh older Dems falling away in the old mill towns, but we also have had a great surge in Dem registrants this year. we'll see if the likes of Lewiston, Bangor and Waterville can bring it home! are you saying the polling is off?
I am prepared to believe that.
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Icelandic Woman
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Post by Icelandic Woman on Aug 13, 2020 12:39:34 GMT -5
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on Aug 13, 2020 19:35:40 GMT -5
2nd District is def more conservative, but has always been able to vote for a middle road- cons. Dem. Of course, we could have a new dynamic since 2016 witrh older Dems falling away in the old mill towns, but we also have had a great surge in Dem registrants this year. we'll see if the likes of Lewiston, Bangor and Waterville can bring it home! are you saying the polling is off?
I am prepared to believe that.
No. I'm basically saying that I don't know!
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 16, 2020 18:13:39 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 16, 2020 18:15:51 GMT -5
the can "broadcast" it to their 86% Republican audience.
won't make much difference.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 16, 2020 18:28:04 GMT -5
the can "broadcast" it to their 86% Republican audience. won't make much difference. Assume you meant to type "they". If so who is "they"? Do you mean Fox? While the link is to Fox News, there is no indication at the link they will be broadcasting the campaign ad.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 16, 2020 20:32:05 GMT -5
Saw a poll today where >75% of voters wanted the candidates to state what they plan to do to help the country. Only about 18 percent wanted the candidates to trash their opponents.
I think Trump is screwed, them. He only seems to say shitty things about his opponents anymore. Can’t think of a single thing he’s promising to do in his second term, except the usual MAGA cheers.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 17, 2020 1:31:36 GMT -5
the can "broadcast" it to their 86% Republican audience. won't make much difference. Assume you meant to type "they". If so who is "they"? Do you mean Fox? While the link is to Fox News, there is no indication at the link they will be broadcasting the campaign ad. yes, I meant FOX. I think you are using broadcasting in a more general way than I was thinking of it.
and yes, I meant they.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 17, 2020 9:31:30 GMT -5
I just read an article about QAnon. They have advanced their theories of Hillary and the dems running child sex trafficking rings out of pizza parlors. Now they believe the kids are being harvested for a special drug made from spinal columns that is addicting a bunch of people including tom hanks. But some of the kids are also being sent down into vast secret caverns to be consumed by demons (Democratic demons I’m sure) but don’t worry, trump has sent the military down to fight the demons and if he wins re-election he will defeat them.
Plus, if he wins, he will give free energy to all Americans.
I am not joking. My brain melted a little bit.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 17, 2020 9:37:33 GMT -5
Assume you meant to type "they". If so who is "they"? Do you mean Fox? While the link is to Fox News, there is no indication at the link they will be broadcasting the campaign ad. yes, I meant FOX. I think you are using broadcasting in a more general way than I was thinking of it.
and yes, I meant they.
The linked article simply states "... live broadcast ...". I am just trying to get a fuller picture of what they plan to do. My only personal experience with anything like this is I was the MC for a Talent Show sponsored by our local community radio station. They have a broadcast antenna for audio. They have an internet connection that shows video. There was a live broadcast of the show, to an incredibly small audience. The Trump campaign is planning to put on a show but a political campaign doesn't have a means to broadcast it, other than potentially on the internet. Will Fox give or sell them an hour? If they do give it, would they have to give the Biden and other presidential campaigns equal time? I remember that being a thing when I was younger. And if not Fox, how else would the campaign get the show in front of people? OAN?
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 17, 2020 10:11:56 GMT -5
I just read an article about QAnon. They have advanced their theories of Hillary and the dems running child sex trafficking rings out of pizza parlors. Now they believe the kids are being harvested for a special drug made from spinal columns that is addicting a bunch of people including tom hanks. But some of the kids are also being sent down into vast secret caverns to be consumed by demons (Democratic demons I’m sure) but don’t worry, trump has sent the military down to fight the demons and if he wins re-election he will defeat them. Plus, if he wins, he will give free energy to all Americans. I am not joking. My brain melted a little bit. So not only do we now have a trump Space Force we also have a trump Abyss Force. I bet trump recruited Satan to head that new force because even Satan hates Hillary Clinton, pedophiles, and the Comet Ping Pong pizzeria.
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Aug 17, 2020 14:37:49 GMT -5
So she hadn’t even been officially elected yet and Marjorie Green is getting sued for her tin hat conspiracy theories. The step mom of the Atlanta cop charged with killing Rayshard Brooks got terminated by her employer BEFORE her step son shot Brooks. Because she racist and sexual comments to coworkers. Stepmom starts complaining that she was wrongfully terminated for being step mom to a cop. Green , the QAnon nut, claimed the company’caved to the mob’ . The company got hate mail, threats and their website was swamped. So the company is suing both the mom and green for creating a smear Campaign they knew was based on a lie in order to capitalize on Brooks death. I hope they win a jillion dollars. Sounds like something you Lefties would do.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Aug 17, 2020 14:57:42 GMT -5
So she hadn’t even been officially elected yet and Marjorie Green is getting sued for her tin hat conspiracy theories. The step mom of the Atlanta cop charged with killing Rayshard Brooks got terminated by her employer BEFORE her step son shot Brooks. Because she racist and sexual comments to coworkers. Stepmom starts complaining that she was wrongfully terminated for being step mom to a cop. Green , the QAnon nut, claimed the company’caved to the mob’ . The company got hate mail, threats and their website was swamped. So the company is suing both the mom and green for creating a smear Campaign they knew was based on a lie in order to capitalize on Brooks death. I hope they win a jillion dollars. Sounds like something you Lefties would do. You have a problem with someone being sued for slander?
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Aug 17, 2020 20:51:05 GMT -5
Miles Taylor, a former senior Trump administration official, endorsed Joe Biden's presidential campaign on Monday, becoming one of the highest-ranking former Trump administration officials to do so. Taylor, who served as chief of staff to Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, also accused President Donald Trump of repeatedly using his office for political purposes, including directing officials to cut wildfire relief funding to California because voters there overwhelmingly opposed him in 2016.
Taylor, a longtime Republican and political appointee at DHS from 2017 to 2019, endorsed the former vice president in a video produced by the group Republican Voters Against Trump in which he also made several allegations about Trump's conduct. He also wrote an op-ed published in The Washington Post calling the President "dangerous" for America. "What we saw week in and week out, for me, after two and a half years in that administration, was terrifying. We would go in to try to talk to him about a pressing national security issue -- cyberattack, terrorism threat -- he wasn't interested in those things. To him, they weren't priorities," Taylor says in the video. www.cnn.com/2020/08/17/politics/miles-taylor-trump-joe-biden-endorse/index.html
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 17, 2020 21:12:51 GMT -5
I wonder if trump will bring back the USA Freedom Kids to entertain during his virtual convention. The girls have probably aged out to interest donald trump but maybe he can trick them again into entertaining Republicans for free.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 17, 2020 21:41:34 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 18, 2020 11:19:12 GMT -5
the national polling numbers for Trump have been rising since July 9th, when he polled at 41% nationally. in the 6 weeks since, his numbers are up 1.6%, putting him near 43%. during that same time, Biden's numbers have basically been flat at 51%. however, Biden had a dip to 50% on August 9th, so in the last week, he is up 1%, and now rests at the high water mark of his campaign, at just over 51%, and with a commanding 8% lead: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/the news wires are reporting some deterioration in the state standings, but I would precaution that these are lagging numbers. the national numbers update 1-2 weeks ahead of the state numbers, because of the numbers of surveys, and the presence of daily polling, which does not exist at the state level. in other words, I would expect the state numbers to rise over the next two weeks. watch this space...... based on that, I am not changing the odds, even though the state polling THIS MORNING does not look as favorable as it was a week ago. also of note, Clinton's lead in the national polls on this date in 2016 was 5.7%, about 3% lower than Biden's, and heading in the opposite direction (she was only 1% ahead of Trump on September 16th).
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 18, 2020 11:23:50 GMT -5
Do poll numbers that fluctuate within margins of error reflect true change or do they simply give us something to talk about?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 18, 2020 11:30:12 GMT -5
Do poll numbers that fluctuate within margins of error reflect true change or do they simply give us something to talk about? I don't actually care much about the fluctuations. what I care about, and watch, is the (intermediate to long term) trends in the polls.
the polling for both candidates is fairly flat. if we project out, Trump would gain 3% by election day, and Biden would gain 0%, which would put Biden 5.4% ahead, which is too large of a lead to beat in the rust belt.
what is more on point is that that will probably change. it might get better for Biden, or worse for him, and that would change my outlook considerably.
I know that was not really an answer to your question, but it is only because I don't find the question that interesting. perhaps others will comment on it.
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