Anyone up for Canadian politics discussion?

[Value Buy]

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/documents-increase-pressure-on-trudeau/ar-BBVpWZp?li=BBnb7Kz

Is this enough to bring the PM Trudeau down in Canada?

[Virgil Showlion]

[link to our previous discussion is here]

It's tough to say whether the scandal will 'bring him down'. It won't end his political career, but it looks like it may cost him the next federal election.

There's little doubt among the electorate that he and other members of his cabinet pressured Ms. Raybould to get SNC off the hook, or that they did it for political reasons, or that her being shuffled out of her position was related to her refusal to bend. But then comes the issue of: Was the PM's conduct a major sin? Some would say, "Absolutely. He acted purely out of self-interest and in clear contravention of the statutes set out to ensure impartiality of the judiciary."  Others would say, "No. He was being pragmatic, zealously defending Quebec jobs, and he can be forgiven for overstepping his authority this once."

I don't know the specific breakdown of Canadian opinion, but I suspect that how any given voter sees the issue correlates strongly with who they voted for in the last federal election.

[mollyc]

Mar 30, 2019 11:20:06 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

I don't know the specific breakdown of Canadian opinion, but I suspect that how any given voter sees the issue correlates strongly with who they voted for in the last federal election.

I don't know that I agree with that statement.  The way I remember it, both the NDP and the Conservatives lost a lot of their regular voters for miscellaneous policy and/or leader's personality reasons near the end of the last election.  I'll see if I can find any data to back up or disprove that thought.  However, my google skills are weak so don't hold your breath.

Anecdotally, the lifelong NDP and Conservative voters I know who switched to the Liberals last election are largely going back to their original parties.  In those instances, it is either because they were disappointed with how the Liberals handled the issues important to them or because they like Jagmeet Singh or Andrew Scheer better than Thomas Mulcair or Stephan Harper.

Not that it really matters who you vote for in my district.  It has firmly belonged to one conservative party or another since the first election after P.E. Trudeau's fuddle-duddle incident (i.e. 1972).  However, the % loss of votes compared to the last election for the Conservatives and the NDP pretty much totaled the increased % of votes for the Liberal candidate.

Prince George-Peace River

Election results

Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies, 2015–present


Canadian federal election, 2015

Party Candidate                         Votes     %         ±%         Expenditures


Conservative Bob Zimmer         27,237     52.52     -9.33         $94,031.80

Liberal Matt Shaw                     12,913     24.90     +19.74     $4,485.98

New Democratic Kathi Dickie        8,014    15.45     -10.40     $3,712.11

Green Elizabeth Biggar                 2,672     5.15     -0.91         $2,593.07


I had to try to respace the data to be readable and I deleted the misc candidates data.  If it doesn't post correctly, go to the link up above the data.

[weltschmerz]

I didn't vote for him last time, and I won't vote for him this time.
A Peace-Love-Groovy yoga teacher in Ramadan socks is not what this country needs.

[weltschmerz]

‘The sun is setting on Justin Trudeau’: Grand Chief Stewart Phillip on ‘arrogant’ PM response to protesters

“Now that he’s under tremendous pressure from the Jody Wilson-Raybould/SNC-Lavalin issue, Mr. Trudeau is really revealing himself to be who he really is, which is a very self-centred, conceited, arrogant individual and I think that was demonstrated with his very smug, mean-spirited response to the Grassy Narrows demonstrators,” said Phillips, who is also president of the B.C. Union of Indian Chiefs.



“He’s such an arrogant individual. It’s very disturbing and very disappointing.”


globalnews.ca/news/5112732/justin-trudeau-snc-lavalin-grassy-narrows-reconciliation/

[mollyc]

Additional information is supposed to come out this week and we can see what happens then.  Despite DH's cackling at Justin Trudeau's ousting, how the majority of the electorate will take things isn't cemented yet.  Lots can happen in 6+ months to make someone else the worst of 2 evils.

Going deeper into Canada's 2015 election

"Total votes


The total number of votes for the parties shows that only the NDP lost a big number of votes — almost a million. The Conservatives stayed at about the same number, while the Liberals gained more than four million, suggesting they may have received the votes of a huge share of the new voters in this election."

The link above suggests that the Liberals gained the most from new voters last election.  Like by millions.  Even without a scandal or crisis, it wouldn't have been guaranteed that all of those new voters would stay with the Liberals this fall.  Or even vote at all.  There were a number of factors on the Liberals side.  There was the "Anyone but Harper issue".  There was the Marijuana issue.  There was the Syrian Refugee issue.  There was Bill C-51 which expanded the ability of CSIS to spy on citizens that the Liberals said they would amend.  Net neutrality reared its head at one point also but I don't know how much it actually mattered in the election.

I have attached a link that suggests the Liberals were likely to have the majority again this election but it's based on info from October 2018.

365 Days to Go - Liberals Have the Edge

I actually found a publication from UBC Press that has over four dozen essays analyzing different aspects of the last election.  If anyone is a policy wonk type person, you may find it interesting.  Note that at least 3 of the essays are in French.  Some of the things brought up may still be in play.  I will check that out later.

Final Analysis of 2015 Election

[Value Buy]

Mar 31, 2019 15:33:44 GMT -5 weltschmerz said:

‘The sun is setting on Justin Trudeau’: Grand Chief Stewart Phillip on ‘arrogant’ PM response to protesters

“Now that he’s under tremendous pressure from the Jody Wilson-Raybould/SNC-Lavalin issue, Mr. Trudeau is really revealing himself to be who he really is, which is a very self-centred, conceited, arrogant individual and I think that was demonstrated with his very smug, mean-spirited response to the Grassy Narrows demonstrators,” said Phillips, who is also president of the B.C. Union of Indian Chiefs.



“He’s such an arrogant individual. It’s very disturbing and very disappointing.”


globalnews.ca/news/5112732/justin-trudeau-snc-lavalin-grassy-narrows-reconciliation/

You really do hate democratically elected leaders from North American countries!
I always considered him just another rich kid from a Canadian family whose citizens always seem to think they will be happy with. Kind of like anyone named KKennsdy here in the states.

[Value Buy]

Mar 31, 2019 15:57:35 GMT -5 mollyc said:

Additional information is supposed to come out this week and we can see what happens then.  Despite DH's cackling at Justin Trudeau's ousting, how the majority of the electorate will take things isn't cemented yet.  Lots can happen in 6+ months to make someone else the worst of 2 evils.

Going deeper into Canada's 2015 election

"Total votes


The total number of votes for the parties shows that only the NDP lost a big number of votes — almost a million. The Conservatives stayed at about the same number, while the Liberals gained more than four million, suggesting they may have received the votes of a huge share of the new voters in this election."

The link above suggests that the Liberals gained the most from new voters last election.  Like by millions.  Even without a scandal or crisis, it wouldn't have been guaranteed that all of those new voters would stay with the Liberals this fall.  Or even vote at all.  There were a number of factors on the Liberals side.  There was the "Anyone but Harper issue".  There was the Marijuana issue.  There was the Syrian Refugee issue.  There was Bill C-51 which expanded the ability of CSIS to spy on citizens that the Liberals said they would amend.  Net neutrality reared its head at one point also but I don't know how much it actually mattered in the election.

I have attached a link that suggests the Liberals were likely to have the majority again this election but it's based on info from October 2018.

365 Days to Go - Liberals Have the Edge

I actually found a publication from UBC Press that has over four dozen essays analyzing different aspects of the last election.  If anyone is a policy wonk type person, you may find it interesting.  Note that at least 3 of the essays are in French.  Some of the things brought up may still be in play.  I will check that out later.

Final Analysis of 2015 Election

I admit I am ill prepared to discuss Canadian political parties.
Is it fair to say the "Liberal party" are our Democratic party, and "Conservative party is our Republican party and does it go centuries back to English political parties from the homeland? The Whig and Tory party?

[weltschmerz]

Mar 31, 2019 16:08:42 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Mar 31, 2019 15:57:35 GMT -5 mollyc said:

Additional information is supposed to come out this week and we can see what happens then.  Despite DH's cackling at Justin Trudeau's ousting, how the majority of the electorate will take things isn't cemented yet.  Lots can happen in 6+ months to make someone else the worst of 2 evils.

Going deeper into Canada's 2015 election

"Total votes


The total number of votes for the parties shows that only the NDP lost a big number of votes — almost a million. The Conservatives stayed at about the same number, while the Liberals gained more than four million, suggesting they may have received the votes of a huge share of the new voters in this election."

The link above suggests that the Liberals gained the most from new voters last election.  Like by millions.  Even without a scandal or crisis, it wouldn't have been guaranteed that all of those new voters would stay with the Liberals this fall.  Or even vote at all.  There were a number of factors on the Liberals side.  There was the "Anyone but Harper issue".  There was the Marijuana issue.  There was the Syrian Refugee issue.  There was Bill C-51 which expanded the ability of CSIS to spy on citizens that the Liberals said they would amend.  Net neutrality reared its head at one point also but I don't know how much it actually mattered in the election.

I have attached a link that suggests the Liberals were likely to have the majority again this election but it's based on info from October 2018.

365 Days to Go - Liberals Have the Edge

I actually found a publication from UBC Press that has over four dozen essays analyzing different aspects of the last election.  If anyone is a policy wonk type person, you may find it interesting.  Note that at least 3 of the essays are in French.  Some of the things brought up may still be in play.  I will check that out later.

Final Analysis of 2015 Election

I admit I am ill prepared to discuss Canadian political parties.
Is it fair to say the "Liberal party" are our Democratic party, and "Conservative party is our Republican party and does it go centuries back to English political parties from the homeland? The Whig and Tory party?

No. Not even close.

[Value Buy]

Mar 31, 2019 16:13:17 GMT -5 weltschmerz said:

Mar 31, 2019 16:08:42 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I admit I am ill prepared to discuss Canadian political parties.
Is it fair to say the "Liberal party" are our Democratic party, and "Conservative party is our Republican party and does it go centuries back to English political parties from the homeland? The Whig and Tory party?

No. Not even close.

Can you supply me with a synopsis of the parties? Or could anyone else supply them?
I want to respond in an adequate way rather than just go "rah rah Trudeau" or "he is a piece of shit" like we see about Trump here in the states on every thread.

[weltschmerz]

Canadian Conservatives have far more in common with US Democrats.

They support public healthcare. They're for LGBTQ rights.
They won't touch our abortion laws. They're for social safety nets. They don't shove religion in your face. The idea of holding a National Prayer Breakfast is a foreign concept and would never happen here, or having a "man of the cloth" opening an event with prayer. Regardless of their personal beliefs, it doesn't enter the public sphere.

Our Liberals, on the other hand, would make you pee blood.

[mollyc]

Mar 31, 2019 16:25:56 GMT -5 weltschmerz said:

Canadian Conservatives have for more in common with US Democrats.

They support public healthcare. They're for LGBTQ rights.
They won't touch our abortion laws. They're for social safety nets. They don't shove religion in your face. The idea of holding a National Prayer Breakfast is a foreign concept and would never happen here, or having a "man of the cloth" opening an event with prayer. Regardless of their personal beliefs, it doesn't enter the public sphere.

Our Liberals, on the other hand, would make you pee blood.

Regional differences kick in on some Conservatives.  Western Conservative candidates can still be left over from the Reform/Alliance eras.  They will open their meetings with prayer.  They will throw "God Bless You" in their newsletters to Constituents.  They have in the past submitted Private Member bills to restrict or ban abortions.  Stephen Harper realized that most Canadians considered abortion to not be the Government's business so he tended to squash attempts to the contrary.

I think the official party line is LGBTQ rights are good but all my relatives that vote Conservative do so in the hopes that they will bring us back to God of the New Testament variety.

[mollyc]

Mar 30, 2019 7:48:41 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/documents-increase-pressure-on-trudeau/ar-BBVpWZp?li=BBnb7Kz

Is this enough to bring the PM Trudeau down in Canada?

Might be.

As Liberal support bleeds to other parties, CPC vote stays solid

Angus Reid poll - March 28, 2019

Conservative Party of Canada holding steady.  Liberals losing votes to all of the other parties.

[weltschmerz]

Mar 31, 2019 20:14:30 GMT -5 mollyc said:

Mar 31, 2019 16:25:56 GMT -5 weltschmerz said:

Canadian Conservatives have for more in common with US Democrats.

They support public healthcare. They're for LGBTQ rights.
They won't touch our abortion laws. They're for social safety nets. They don't shove religion in your face. The idea of holding a National Prayer Breakfast is a foreign concept and would never happen here, or having a "man of the cloth" opening an event with prayer. Regardless of their personal beliefs, it doesn't enter the public sphere.

Our Liberals, on the other hand, would make you pee blood.

Regional differences kick in on some Conservatives.  Western Conservative candidates can still be left over from the Reform/Alliance eras.  They will open their meetings with prayer.  They will throw "God Bless You" in their newsletters to Constituents.  They have in the past submitted Private Member bills to restrict or ban abortions.  Stephen Harper realized that most Canadians considered abortion to not be the Government's business so he tended to squash attempts to the contrary.

I think the official party line is LGBTQ rights are good but all my relatives that vote Conservative do so in the hopes that they will bring us back to God of the New Testament variety.

Maybe a local meeting out west. However, a Federal event will never open with prayer. I didn't even know if Harper WAS religious...I had to look it up to see he's an evangelical. It's never brought up in public.
They can submit all the private member bills they like. To curtail womens' choices would be political suicide on the grand stage.

[mollyc]

That is why I said there are regional differences.  All I know is I will never say never but as the Conservative party stands, I won't vote for them.  I don't trust them.  If there are no other acceptable options, I just won't vote for an MP.