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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 29, 2018 15:02:16 GMT -5
so, three months to go to midterms. here are my predictions: 1) Russian interference is a given. 2) despite that, i suspect that Democrats will retake the House. current odds i am giving are 5:3 3) GOP will hold on to the Senate. current odds i am giving are 7:3 4) i don't have any governership predictions, but the GOP will probably maintain a majority. anyone want to contradict me on the above? if so, why? NOTE: losing the house will have major ramifications for legislation, investigation, and legal oversight of the presidency. and yes, that would be really helpful at this point, as we can't rely upon Trey Gowdy and his cronies to defy this president, and do the right thing, should the hour come. it will NOT, however, help Democrats in terms of judicial appointments. so, Trump is going to win that one, unless Democrats can ALSO flip the Senate, which they are favored to do in 2020.
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Jul 29, 2018 15:02:47 GMT -5
CAP IT UP!!!!!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 29, 2018 15:03:38 GMT -5
we do our best. i forgot to add one thing to the OP: the odds of removing Trump before 2020 are the same as retaking the Senate, for obvious reasons.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 30, 2018 8:20:50 GMT -5
I'm not educated enough in predicting election results (and have been wrong plenty of times before) so I won't venture a guess at the potential outcome.
However, it's interesting to look at poll results (even though they don't necessarily predict the election). Trump's poll numbers are down in three key Midwestern states that he won in 2016 - Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all think, by 60% or more, that Trump does not deserve a second term. Don't know if it's his poor performance in the press conference with Putin or the impact of his tariffs on farm commodities.
Those three states are what helped put him over his narrow edge to victory in 2016. www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/trump-2020-support-mid-west-poll-us-voters-re-election-a8464931.html
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 30, 2018 8:45:10 GMT -5
This House candidate over that House candidate in this Congressional District, 435 times, then total the results. This Senate candidate over that Senate candidate in this State, 35 times, then total the results. Anything other than that level of analysis is whistling Dixie.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Jul 30, 2018 9:02:02 GMT -5
Even if,, big if, the demo, succeed in gaining back the House, everything will be lock up, one passes the other, The Senate doesn't,,,, But Trump has that fantastic Executive Order pen close at hand!!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2018 9:14:18 GMT -5
we do our best. i forgot to add one thing to the OP: the odds of removing Trump before 2020 are the same as retaking the Senate, for obvious reasons. This is the only one I disagree with you on only because it’s takes a two thirds senate vote to remove.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 30, 2018 10:56:30 GMT -5
Even if,, big if, the demo, succeed in gaining back the House, everything will be lock up, one passes the other, The Senate doesn't,,,, this is precisely the outcome i am hoping for. divided government works well in the US. one party rule doesn't.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 30, 2018 10:57:58 GMT -5
we do our best. i forgot to add one thing to the OP: the odds of removing Trump before 2020 are the same as retaking the Senate, for obvious reasons. This is the only one I disagree with you on only because it’s takes a two thirds senate vote to remove. i am not predicting anything, aj. but here is what i think: i think doofus is guilty as hell. i think that once it is known how guilty he is, that there will be enough votes in the Senate- IF IT EVER COMES UP. but it won't come up under GOP control. that is MY OPINION. and yeah, it is highly speculative.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 30, 2018 10:58:56 GMT -5
This House candidate over that House candidate in this Congressional District, 435 times, then total the results. This Senate candidate over that Senate candidate in this State, 35 times, then total the results. Anything other than that level of analysis is whistling Dixie. i love whistling, bill. if you don't, there are several thousand other threads that you can enjoy.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 30, 2018 15:40:46 GMT -5
This House candidate over that House candidate in this Congressional District, 435 times, then total the results. This Senate candidate over that Senate candidate in this State, 35 times, then total the results. Anything other than that level of analysis is whistling Dixie. i love whistling, bill. if you don't, there are several thousand other threads that you can enjoy. I plan on enjoying the whistling on this thread along with all the others. I will be reading it without illusion so I can avoid disillusionment following the election.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 30, 2018 18:29:01 GMT -5
i love whistling, bill. if you don't, there are several thousand other threads that you can enjoy. I plan on enjoying the whistling on this thread along with all the others. I will be reading it without illusion so I can avoid disillusionment following the election. you should be able to avoid it beforehand, given that 47 of 50 states were called correctly in the last one, and 49 of 50 in 2012. this is all a numbers game. i am guessing you are not much of a gambling man.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jul 30, 2018 19:01:22 GMT -5
so, three months to go to midterms. here are my predictions: 1) Russian interference is a given. 2) despite that, i suspect that Democrats will retake the House. current odds i am giving are 5:3 3) GOP will hold on to the Senate. current odds i am giving are 7:3 4) i don't have any governership predictions, but the GOP will probably maintain a majority. anyone want to contradict me on the above? if so, why? NOTE: losing the house will have major ramifications for legislation, investigation, and legal oversight of the presidency. and yes, that would be really helpful at this point, as we can't rely upon Trey Gowdy and his cronies to defy this president, and do the right thing, should the hour come. it will NOT, however, help Democrats in terms of judicial appointments. so, Trump is going to win that one, unless Democrats can ALSO flip the Senate, which they are favored to do in 2020.
1. The Russians had ZERO impact on the 2016 elections, and they'll have ZERO impact on 2018-- though it is encouraging that Democrats, whose party was decimated under Obama and which party is still careening towards collapse and obscurity, has a built-in excuse. 2. Odds of Democrats winning the House are 50/50. They should be blown out, but one can never underestimate the Republican Party's ability to blow an easy win. 3. The GOP will PICK UP US Senate seats. Conservatively- 2. But 6 is not out of the question. I've explained this several times before- I won't bother doing it again. Suffice it to say Senate math is not good for Democrats. 4. When they basically have them all, it's going to be tough to gain any. Odds are good they'll lose a few.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jul 30, 2018 19:09:25 GMT -5
This is the only one I disagree with you on only because it’s takes a two thirds senate vote to remove. i am not predicting anything, aj. but here is what i think: i think doofus is guilty as hell. i think that once it is known how guilty he is, that there will be enough votes in the Senate- IF IT EVER COMES UP. but it won't come up under GOP control. that is MY OPINION. and yeah, it is highly speculative. It is a violation of the CoC to refer to President Trump as a doofus. That being said, pray tell: guilty of what, exactly- and do be kind and cite the statute. For example, Hillary Clinton violated the following statutes: 18 U.S. Code § 2232 — Destruction or removal of property to prevent seizure(a) Destruction or Removal of Property To Prevent Seizure Whoever, before, during, or after any search for or seizure of property by any person authorized to make such search or seizure, knowingly destroys, damages, wastes, disposes of, transfers, or otherwise takes any action, or knowingly attempts to destroy, damage, waste, dispose of, transfer, or otherwise take any action, for the purpose of preventing or impairing the Government’s lawful authority to take such property into its custody or control or to continue holding such property under its lawful custody and control, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both. (b) Impairment of In Rem Jurisdiction Whoever, knowing that property is subject to the in rem jurisdiction of a United States court for purposes of civil forfeiture under Federal law, knowingly and without authority from that court, destroys, damages, wastes, disposes of, transfers, or otherwise takes any action, or knowingly attempts to destroy, damage, waste, dispose of, transfer, or otherwise take any action, for the purpose of impairing or defeating the court’s continuing in rem jurisdiction over the property, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both. 18 U.S. Code § 1512 — Tampering with a witness, victim, or an informant(c) Whoever corruptly (1) alters, destroys, mutilates, or conceals a record, document, or other object, or attempts to do so, with the intent to impair the object’s integrity or availability for use in an official proceeding; or (2) otherwise obstructs, influences, or impedes any official proceeding, or attempts to do so, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both. 18 U.S. Code § 1519 — Destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in Federal investigations and bankruptcyWhoever knowingly alters, destroys, mutilates, conceals, covers up, falsifies, or makes a false entry in any record, document, or tangible object with the intent to impede, obstruct, or influence the investigation or proper administration of any matter within the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the United States or any case filed under title 11, or in relation to or contemplation of any such matter or case, shall be fined under this title, imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both. 18 U.S. Code § 2071 — Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally(a) Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both. (b) Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States. 18 U.S. Code § 641 — Public money, property or recordsWhoever embezzles, steals, purloins, or knowingly converts to his use, or the use of another, or without authority, sells, conveys or disposes of any record, voucher, money, or thing of value of the United States or of any department or agency thereof, or any property made or being made under contract for the United States or any department or agency thereof, … Shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned not more than ten years or both. 18 U.S. Code § 793 — Gathering, transmitting or losing defense information (f) Whoever, being entrusted with or having lawful possession or control of any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, note, or information, relating to the national defense, (1) through gross negligence permits the same to be removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of his trust, or to be lost, stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, or (2) having knowledge that the same has been illegally removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of its trust, or lost, or stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, and fails to make prompt report of such loss, theft, abstraction, or destruction to his superior officer — Shall be fined not more than $10, 000 or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both. (g) If two or more persons conspire to violate any of the foregoing provisions of this section, and one or more of such persons do any act to effect the object of the conspiracy, each of the parties to such conspiracy, shall be subject to the punishment provided for the offense which is the object of such conspiracy.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 30, 2018 19:10:44 GMT -5
I plan on enjoying the whistling on this thread along with all the others. I will be reading it without illusion so I can avoid disillusionment following the election. you should be able to avoid it beforehand, given that 47 of 50 states were called correctly in the last one, and 49 of 50 in 2012. this is all a numbers game. i am guessing you are not much of a gambling man.
Spot on, not a gambling man. Actually I am a social scientist. Vastly different mindset. Here is what I think happened in past presidential elections to which you refer. Polls were taken in each state asking who people would vote for in the presidential election and that data allowed for states to be called correctly. If someone uses polling data taken in each state that has a Senate seat election that asks which of the candidates running for Senate people are likely to vote for, they could come really close to getting the final seat count correct. If they do the same in each congressional district, they could come really close to getting the final House count correct. If they rely on something like President Trump's approval rating in national or even state polling, I would consider that very unreliable data.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Jul 30, 2018 19:16:44 GMT -5
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said: It is a violation of the CoC to refer to President Trump as a doofus. Actually, it's not. If someone had posted "President Doofus", that would have been a violation. Referring to a public figure as a doofus, or a fool, or a snake, etc., is not a violation. If we require you to interpret our CoC for us at any time in the future, we'll contact you. Until then, that sort of thing is done by staff. mmhmm, Politics Moderator
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jul 30, 2018 19:19:31 GMT -5
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said: It is a violation of the CoC to refer to President Trump as a doofus. Actually, it's not. If someone had posted "President Doofus", that would have been a violation. Referring to a public figure as a doofus, or a fool, or a snake, etc., is not a violation. If we require you to interpret our CoC for us at any time in the future, we'll contact you. Until then, that sort of thing is done by staff. mmhmm, Politics Moderator I appreciate the clarification. I shall store this reply with the rest. You know- in case of a future need to clarify anything.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Jul 30, 2018 19:20:59 GMT -5
AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said: It is a violation of the CoC to refer to President Trump as a doofus. Actually, it's not. If someone had posted "President Doofus", that would have been a violation. Referring to a public figure as a doofus, or a fool, or a snake, etc., is not a violation. If we require you to interpret our CoC for us at any time in the future, we'll contact you. Until then, that sort of thing is done by staff. mmhmm, Politics Moderator I appreciate the clarification. I shall store this reply with the rest. You know- in case of a future need to clarify anything. Happy to oblige, Paul. It was obvious you needed clarification here.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jul 30, 2018 19:39:07 GMT -5
Henceforth, there will be no issue in referring to Lying Crooked Hillary as Lying Crooked Hillary.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Jul 30, 2018 20:09:16 GMT -5
Henceforth, there will be no issue in referring to Lying Crooked Hillary as Lying Crooked Hillary. Yes, there will. That isn't saying Hillary is a liar. That's like using Lying as a first name, Crooked as a middle name, and Hillary as a surname. That will not be allowed, Paul. Your ploys aren't going to work here. I know you're intelligent enough to read and understand the rules, and I know you've been here long enough to see them applied (to your posts if to no others). You may say what you wish. I will clarify for the rest of our members, as necessary, since you do not make the rules. mmhmm, Politics Moderator who is through with this discussion and will remove further posts related to this conversation
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steff
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Post by steff on Jul 30, 2018 20:22:01 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 30, 2018 20:41:43 GMT -5
so, do you think Abrams will win? or are you so enthralled with it, you dare not speak?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 30, 2018 20:48:14 GMT -5
I appreciate the clarification. I shall store this reply with the rest. You know- in case of a future need to clarify anything. two things: 1) who died and elected you Miss Manners? 2) you seem to think i don't know the rules here. i don't recall ever ratting you out, Paul. but this is the second time in the last few months you have taken it upon yourself to rat me out. just stop. now, if you want to make a NEW rule, you go right ahead. slowly, perceptibly, and incrementally we are losing our ability to speak freely on this board. you guys took it too far in 2016, imo. but apparently that is not enough. that is the way of fascism. it is never enough.
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steff
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Post by steff on Jul 30, 2018 21:26:07 GMT -5
so, do you think Abrams will win? or are you so enthralled with it, you dare not speak? I hope Abrams will win, but I know with Brian Kemp our voting machines are not safe & that he cannot be trusted to not mess with them. I plan to vote early so I can do it by paper ballot.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2018 0:49:38 GMT -5
you should be able to avoid it beforehand, given that 47 of 50 states were called correctly in the last one, and 49 of 50 in 2012. this is all a numbers game. i am guessing you are not much of a gambling man.
Spot on, not a gambling man. Actually I am a social scientist. Vastly different mindset. Here is what I think happened in past presidential elections to which you refer. Polls were taken in each state asking who people would vote for in the presidential election and that data allowed for states to be called correctly. If someone uses polling data taken in each state that has a Senate seat election that asks which of the candidates running for Senate people are likely to vote for, they could come really close to getting the final seat count correct. If they do the same in each congressional district, they could come really close to getting the final House count correct. If they rely on something like President Trump's approval rating in national or even state polling, I would consider that very unreliable data. it is not quite as simple as "bad modeling", but you are closer to the facts than most, and i commend you for it. enough that i would rather not resort to the arcane analysis of surveying the polls of Wisconsin. but i will add one thing: i doubt they learned a fucking thing from last time. but i learned a couple things.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 31, 2018 0:51:59 GMT -5
so, do you think Abrams will win? or are you so enthralled with it, you dare not speak? I hope Abrams will win, but I know with Brian Kemp our voting machines are not safe & that he cannot be trusted to not mess with them. I plan to vote early so I can do it by paper ballot. i can't tell whether you are interested in my opinion or not. in case you are, i think this is going to be a close race. i think Abrams has some VERY SLOW momentum, and Kemp appears to have topped out. i would not count on her winning. she is a black female Democrat in a Republican state. but i am not convinced that Georgia is as red as most people think. Atlanta is a real melting pot, as an example. if they can drive turnout, she might just win. but it is truly an uphill battle for her.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 31, 2018 7:20:15 GMT -5
Number one is your red herring that you so eloqently use in your debates here. They interfered, but had no effect on the outcome, so no relevance. As far as the House, it should be interesting. I originally thought the dems would win bigly, but like you say, should be close. I too, prefer two parties holding an even number, as it stops some of the stupid stuff one party seems to think they can get away with. Problem with the republicans, they just could not believe Trump won, and privately wished to be flogged for four years as penance instead of running with the chance to do the right thing for four years.
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Post by Opti on Jul 31, 2018 7:32:39 GMT -5
we do our best. i forgot to add one thing to the OP: the odds of removing Trump before 2020 are the same as retaking the Senate, for obvious reasons. Agreed. I think the 2020 Presidential election at this time is likely to be as twisty and turny as the 2016 one. I won't even make odds for it. Even for Democrat/Republican or Trump/Democratic eventual candidate.
Now, I think a compelling ticket for the Democrats would be composed of a white woman and a black man. Trump, or even the GOP won't be able to use this strategy IMO nor will it play sincere.
Political thought problem: Trump runs in 2020 for his second term. He chooses a black woman as a VP. He also targets some offices pre 2021, such as Sec of State, for unique selling points Trump style.
1) What does a black woman bring to this ticket? Net? (I think its a net fail because despite the fake msg of love, picking a VP with this background would like show the cracks instead of acting as effective window dressing. However, I do not have a conservative mind, so I may be incorrect on this.)
2) What's Trump's campaign message except more of the same?
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Jul 31, 2018 11:57:06 GMT -5
I hope Abrams will win, but I know with Brian Kemp our voting machines are not safe & that he cannot be trusted to not mess with them. I plan to vote early so I can do it by paper ballot. i can't tell whether you are interested in my opinion or not. in case you are, i think this is going to be a close race. i think Abrams has some VERY SLOW momentum, and Kemp appears to have topped out. i would not count on her winning. she is a black female Democrat in a Republican state. but i am not convinced that Georgia is as red as most people think. Atlanta is a real melting pot, as an example. if they can drive turnout, she might just win. but it is truly an uphill battle for her.
Abrams is trying to reach out to all the lower income and female voters in the state, not just sticking to the more democratic parts around the urban areas. She has stated she will visit every single district in GA as part of her campaign.
I've heard her talk and she's got a good message that I think should appeal to at least SOME of the rural white voters (especially the female ones). Will that be enough to push her past Kemp? Not sure.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 31, 2018 14:31:52 GMT -5
so, do you think Abrams will win? or are you so enthralled with it, you dare not speak? Here is a good article I read this morning on the Georgia race. personalliberty.com/georgia-governors-race-look-lot-like-2020-presidential-contest/Another particularily interesting Governor's race is in Illinois, Rauner versus Pritzker, multi millionaires duking it out, and polar opposites. Just not sure enough voters will come out in either race to be able to actually measure whether it is a test of Trump's election viability in 2020
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