Tracking it's progress to the moon. This thread will be updated when new highs are reached, tracking it's price to the moon Alice. New articles, information and benchmarks will be added and updated. Any newsworthy articles are welcome to add. NEWS UPDATE: Silver is Approaching Stage Two of its Bull Marketwww.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_feb142011.html
Back in April 2007, I wrote about the three stages that appear in every bull market, and more to the point, that gold was approaching the end of stage one.<>http://www.fgmr.com/end-of-stage-is--rapidly-approaching.html<> Gold back then was still trading around $690, and therefore well below its then record high of $850 reached in January 1980. My view was that “gold looks ready to make a new all-time high. When that happens, stage two begins. There will not yet be widespread excitement about gold in the next stage, because that won't occur until stage three. But when gold makes a new record high, and particularly after it breaks into a 4-digit price, people will begin paying attention.” I wrote a follow-up article in November 2009 entitled Welcome to Stage Two of Gold's Bull Market<>http://www.fgmr.com/stage-two-of-golds-bull-market.html<>, just two months after gold broke above $1,000. Focusing on the change in prevailing sentiment, I noted how differently gold was being treated. “During the first stage of a bull market, the media and most investors alike focus on past issues, rather than future potential. Over the past decade one consequently heard all the reasons not to own the gold…But there is a notable difference in this stage compared to stage one. Look how many people are writing and talking about gold. Gold has moved from apathy and neglect – stage one characteristics – to growing attention. But importantly, instead of embracing gold and analyzing it to determine relative value, today’s attention is one of widespread disbelief and skepticism that gold can climb higher. These are exactly the responses one should expect to emanate from stage two.” I concluded by noting that at some unpredictable point in the future, gold will enter stage three “when gold no longer is relatively good value”.
Silver is still in stage one. It won’t advance into stage two until $50 is exceeded, just like gold did not enter stage two until its previous high of $850 was hurdled. I expect that silver will exceed $50 this year, which is a point of view I first mentioned in my outlook for 2010.<>http://www.fgmr.com/outlook-for-2010.html<> Admittedly, I was a little early with my forecast about when gold would enter stage two. So perhaps I will again be early by forecasting that silver will enter stage two of its bull market this year. Regardless of the accuracy of my timing, one thing is clear. Because it is still in stage one, silver remains good value.
That's a nice looking design on that British silver dollar. I don't think I've seen that one before. I was just on Apmex looking for them but couldn't find them. The Silver Eagles are still fetching a $3 to $4 premium over spot even with silver over $30 spot! I was shocked when it topped $25 spot but there's still a lot of fear and uncertainty concerning the possibly severe dollar devaluation and the economy. Just to be up front, I believe silver is way overpriced right now but that's just my opinion.
Is China increasing its gold reserves but without reporting it, yet again? Or is this pure market speculation? The odds would favour the former, but the markets just won't know until the Chinese announce the fact at a point in time of their choice. Such an announcement is politically very sensitive, and if several hundred tonnes of gold have indeed quietly and surreptitiously been moved into the Asian giant's coffers, which this writer feels is more likely than not, then news of this could have a very sharp upwards price impact for the precious metal.
It will be remembered that China's official reserve figure is 1,054 tonnes - an announced increase of over 75%, supposedly achieved over a three-year period to 2009. But there's no particular reason to even believe this figure. Chinese official gold reserves are at whatever level the government is prepared to announce. Even if its official gold holdings are indeed 1,054 tonnes there could be, and probably is, a substantial amount of additional gold in some secondary account which China doesn't feel the need to repor - at least not yett.China can build its reserves without overtly appearing to do so, by buying in its own gold production, which not only includes mine production, but also output from custom refining, either of gold directly, but also from byproduct gold from its vast base metals refining sector. The mining companies will receive payment for their concentrates which may include a premium for contained gold, but no-one, apart from perhaps the Chinese government, knows exactly how much refined gold is produced from these base metals concentrates - the amount could be quite substantial.
With its announced annual mined production at 314 tonnes last year and expected to be around 320 tonnes in 2010, there could well be another 600 to 650 tonnes or perhaps more, moved into ‘unofficial' reserves, since that last announcement and continuing to absorb its own gold at that rate would mean China's reserves would effectively be doubled by end 2011 to some 2,000 tonnes.
But why be so circumspect in the announcement of reserves? The main factor is that confirmation of a substantial increase in Chinese reserves would almost certainly lead to a big jump in the gold price. [glow=red,2,300]A big gold price rise is seen in many financial circles as an effective devaluation of the dollar - and China holds trillions of dollars in its reserves. This is also the reason China did not snap up the IMF gold which was on sale. An overt purchase of a substantial amount of the IMF gold by China would, the Chinese judged, have had a very sharp impact on the gold price.[/glow]
[glow=red,2,300]Meanwhile China is also believed to be offloading dollars to the maximum extent it can without overtly affecting the currency markets. [/glow]
Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson says Washington D.C. is too complacent about China's ability to wean itself off the dollar. With about 1.7 trillion of dollar-denominated assets (mainly Treasuries) in its foreign currency reserves, conventional wisdom goes something like this: If China were to diversify away from the dollar or merely allow the renminbi to float, much less dump its greenbacks wholesale, they would be shooting themselves in the proverbial foot. That's both as investors and because further dollar weakness would put a damper on their biggest export market. (A weaker dollar makes foreign goods more expensive for Americans, meaning Chinese imports would become less "cheap.")
Going back to the gold standard with a huge trade deficit can't happen because gold would flow out of this country into China.
So we need a currency balance. Maybe a global trading tool based on gold standard.
Then China's GNP would skyrocket. As would the trade deficit.(150 billion worth of devalued crap would skyrocket to 400 billion worth of costly crap). Then prices would skyrocket.
And to add insult to injury they are the only solvent country left with enough money to by gold, and are the world leader at gold production..
SO even if we have more(gold) now. They; in the long run, still bankrupt us.
I believe there is no way that the Fed will go this route. The higher gold goes the better position China is in to control it. Everyone on here says that the market pumpers are a threat to America. I believe gold pumpers are more dangerous...
So the only way a gold standard dream comes about is the elimination of free Trade/Market and a end to the American way of life.
You think that China is stupid but they know what areas they control (metals and manufacturing) and we know what areas we control(Oil and Food).
My opinion is that the markets are about to get taken down again (oil hitting 150 a barrel will do that). Just remember company and country are 2 separate things that have very little loyalty to one another.
It's about some down and out unemployed or underemployed workers from Oregon that sell it all to get enough money for some bare bones mining equipment to prospect for gold in Alaska in an old mining camp. So far the show is very entertaining and I think we shall see more people risking it all to do this sort of thing in the future. All in all, great show. Anyone want to go gold mining with me! LOL.
Post by midwesterner (banned) on Jan 6, 2011 12:28:23 GMT -5
Mid, how do you put pics, graphs and so forth on here? Thanks!
I haven't played with graphs yet, but for hyperlinks and pictures you first go to the website of the picture. For instance if you google something, go to images on google, then picture will show up. In most cases the picture will be half a picture, so click on the righthand side where it says full image. Then copy the URL from that single picture you want to use, and paste it in the message. Then you highlight the whole URL from either the hyperlink to the site, or to the picture. If it's a picture then go to the add tags above, you click on insert image. It will wrap tags around the link. This works the same if you use a hyperlink, or a youtube video you want embedded in the message. Just make sure you use the youtube button for youtube, picture for pictures, and hyperlink for websites.
You also have options to bold your text, underline it, make it glow in the add tags. Just highlight what you want glowing, bold or underlined and then click button. when all done you can preview to see if done right, then reply. Hope that helps. It's really cool the stuff you can do.
Never mind the correction in the price of silver, says Silver Strategies Editor Sean Rakhimov; better things are ahead. "It may be volatile; it may be steep; but it should be short-lived," he says, adding that he expects silver to rise well above its 2010 high at some point in 2011. Some of that price support could come from governments entering the silver market. Find out all the reasons for this in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report.
The Gold Report: Sean, it seems that among commodities, silver is getting the biggest headlines. The price of silver hit a 30-year high in late December. Silver was up 83% in 2010. And a high-profile lawsuit was launched by a significant silver investor against JP Morgan for allegedly manipulating the silver market. It seems that silver has, for the time being, wrested the spotlight away from gold. What sort of things do you expect for silver in 2011?
TGR: On SilverStrategies.com, you recently published an article titled Why Governments Will Buy Silver. If things progress as you suspect they will, government-sponsored silver buying could add further momentum to the bull market you just talked about. Could you discuss that premise with us?
SR: Yes. I tried to make the case for why I think governments will come into the silver market and be very prominent players, if not dominant players, in a way that's not too different from the situation in the gold sector, where the Central Banks became net gold buyers.
In the gold sector, developing countries—the ones with the cash—have been turning their paper assets into gold. I expect something similar will happen in the silver sector for a couple of reasons. One reason for this is monetary. Another is that some of these players could be priced out of the gold market. And the other reason that I outlined in the article is silver's use as a strategic metal. It's one of the most versatile industrial metals out there.
I think governments will try to secure access to certain resources, and silver will be on a list of commodities or metals that will be highly sought after. For example, silver is very important in energy production. It's also very big in electronics. Governments may not care about silver's use in consumer electronics, but they are likely to care about electronics for military use. If governments don't have silver in the quantities they need, that may pose some challenges to countries without ready access to silver. Countries that don't mine silver have to buy it in the market and then wait for delivery. And the physical silver market is especially tight right now.
TGR: How long do you see this bull market running?
SR: It's difficult to say. Commodity cycles usually run about 20 years. Arguably, we're about 10 years into this one, so in loose terms, we may have another 10 years left. However, silver and gold are monetary assets, and we're looking at a currency crisis of epic proportions. We may have to rebuild the entire financial system. Who knows how long that would take or when it's going to get underway? Is it going to be the failure of the euro? Is it going to be the failure of the U.S. dollar? Is it going to be something else? We don't know.
What we do know is that gold and silver are money. Unlike other types of money, the value of these metals is historically proven and universally accepted. Gold and silver will play a prominent role in whatever new financial system is established. And I maintain that in real terms, these metals will go up in value.
This is an excellent article explaining some of the stituations we have brewing out there in the market. Silver and Gold are going nowhere downward anytime soon. If we have a downturn, it's either profit taking, or blatant manipulation, which overall can't last forever, cause one day the metal will dry up, and it will be time to pay the piper.
You can listen to the pumpers, or you can take some of that hard earned cash and put it into a metal that was used as money for thousands of years, used to back our USA Dollar, and has a store of wealth in and of itself while the financial markets are falling apart.
To me it's a no brainer, Metals will keep going up so long as the dollar and other world currencies are in danger of inflating or hyper inflating with a low employment, sky-rocking debt and millions on food stamps.
Post by midwesterner (banned) on Jan 16, 2011 22:59:44 GMT -5
Mid...What should I do with all my AIG profit??? Bet on Gold?
First, please don't leave sarcastic remarks when I present intellectually backed up material for a reasonable debate and presented many reasonings of why it's going up here.
Second, how is gold anymore a bet that your phony stock market. You get a piece of paper, I get a piece of rare and not easily replaced metal that has held value for thousands of years. Hardly a bet.
Third, I told you before to ask your God for forgiveness and maybe donate your ill gotten gains to some organization that will help people, instead of leaching off the broken system, and thinking it's cute that you have profited off the future generations tax liabilities and it's all cute and funny to you. I don't think they will find it funny when this unpayable national debt is their burden and people like you supported it with your money.
Post by midwesterner (banned) on Jan 17, 2011 11:41:53 GMT -5
My god is in a mood today. I'll have to ask him later
I'm going to ask you nicely once again, could you refrain from posting unrelated or off topic stuff on my thread, I'm trying to keep it on topic. So unless it's about the topic at hand, please don't post here. Thank you Kman.
On Friday we disclosed that major PM distributor, retailer and trading house BullionVault.com had run out of physical silver inventories in Germany (and possibly elsewhere) and was advising clients to seek the precious metal elsewhere. Today, we find that the UK joins Germany in what is now becoming the second round of the global silver shortage (the first one occuring in May 2010 when it was unclear just how the ECB would deal with insolvent PIIGS). Below is the warning by British BullionByPost notifying clients that the company currently has no silver bars in stock.
Post by midwesterner (banned) on Jan 20, 2011 18:40:59 GMT -5
Silver at $27.37 an ounce!
Dropped over 20% in just a few days!
I KNOW!!! Isn't it fantastic!!! I'm extremely happy with JP Morgan. Thank You PPT. Now I can pick up some more at these lower prices, what a deal.
Oh by the way, as your strutting around like a roaster, why don't you go add your 10 wonderful rationalized thought out and researched points about how this recovery is coming. You could also stamp in digital ink your call on the price of Gold.
See you boys are big on laughs, but short on guts.
That may be a correct call for two years from now. Ties in to the Dow being under 5,000 at that time. In the meantime, we are still able to sell. A reminder that a bird in hand beats two in the bush all day every day.