General Election 2016: Clinton -vs- Trump

[Tennesseer]

Sept 1, 2016 18:39:55 GMT -5 dondub said:

Who here besides me thinks that gilded interior BS is Tackytown Deluxe?

Garish Baroque and a Rococo furnishings fit for the pretender to the throne and his queen.

[tallguy]

Sept 1, 2016 17:52:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

humility is not his strong suit.

He would never wear a suit that costs less than ten grand, and humility is free.  (Which is also why he has so little respect for it.)  

Trying to decide if it would even be a good look for him, or just completely out of place.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 1, 2016 18:39:55 GMT -5 dondub said:

Who here besides me thinks that gilded interior BS is Tackytown Deluxe?

it looks like some weird Egyptian fantasy.  i honestly am baffled by it.  not really disgusted.  just confused.

[Deleted]

Sept 1, 2016 17:20:35 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 1, 2016 16:00:13 GMT -5 dondub said:

Can you see his White privilege?

If it wasn't for his kid being in the picture... I'd be thinking it was a tacky Flesh Gordon knock-off of Wang's throne room.

(some will get that reference... other's won't)

[djAdvocate]

i am moving NH and NV back to swing as of today.

there is slow but steady erosion in Clinton's numbers, but her odds of winning remain at 7:3

Trump also got a favorable poll in IA, so i am moving that one to his side.  so here are the (6) swing states:

NH, NV, IA, OH, FL, NC

Trump needs to win all of them, and he is favored in two: IA and NC.

he also got a very favorable moderator draw for the first and most important debate, which is additional good news for him.  if he could keep his mouth shut, he would have a real shot at winning.

this should be interesting to watch. 

[djAdvocate]

on the basis of a revision from Ipsos, i am taking NV off the swing state list.  new swing state list:

OH, NH, NC, FL, IA

of these, Trump leads in two: IA and NC.  he is trending especially well in IA.

the national polls are still moving in Trump's favor.  hard to say where that ends up.  some of the poll aggregators show it leveling off.  others don't.

edit: i just noticed that WMUR has Clinton +11% in NH in the last month.  i am taking that off the swing list too.  we are back to the standard four:

OH, NC, FL, IA

two are leaning Trump (IA/NC), two are leaning Clinton (FL/OH).  if you are Trump, you would rather it were the other way around.

[djAdvocate]

i just noticed that IPSOS posted a whole bunch of polls, and they are a mixed bag for Trump/Clinton

Positives for Trump:

ME, OH, OR, MO, IA, WI, NH, MI

Positives for Clinton:

PA, FL, VA, NC, MN, NV, NC

there are important states for both on each list.  Clinton should be concerned about losing MI, WI, and OR.  but i think that the concern is greater for Trump, who can ill afford to lose NC, NV, FL, and PA.

all-in-all, the state polls are starting to look a bit more favorable to Clinton of late, though the national numbers continue to erode.

edit: MO, MT, and GA were within reach for Clinton a couple of weeks ago, but they are pretty solid for Trump, now.  i should also note that the divisions in the electorate are really stark.  the red states are getting redder by the day, and the blue states, bluer.  really, only the tossup states are interesting any longer, plus the upper midwest, and Maine.  most of the mid Atlantic, deep south, Virginia, New Mexico, the West Coast and midwest are already too far gone to be contested.

[Wisconsin Beth]

I spent 4 hours driving north in Wisconsin yesterday. I saw a grand total of 3 signs for presidential candidates. 2 of those were Trump but they may have been from the same house/land. One was covering someone's big sign go 80 acres of land for sale and the second Trump one was a yard sign nery near it.

I am seeing more signs for other races on the ballot though.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 3, 2016 13:10:42 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

I spent 4 hours driving north in Wisconsin yesterday. I saw a grand total of 3 signs for presidential candidates. 2 of those were Trump but they may have been from the same house/land. One was covering someone's big sign go 80 acres of land for sale and the second Trump one was a yard sign nery near it.

I am seeing more signs for other races on the ballot though.

most of WI is rural and conservative, just like CA.

then there is Madison and Milwaukee.

[Wisconsin Beth]

Yep, I live there. There are damn few signs for either of them that ive seen.

No one is putting signs out for either of them, except a Spanish signs outside one of the Union halls saying something about Hilary. I'm assuming it's a vote Hilary sign but haven't cared enough to translate.

I see Russ Feingold signs and Ron Johnson signs.

I'm also hearing Johnson/Weld ads on the radio up here in northern Wisconsin.

[djAdvocate]

yeah, i hear a lot about voter enthusiasm on both sides, but it is highly partisan.

most Americans are holding their noses.  that will keep the election close, but it doesn't really help Trump.

there is still one shoe to drop for Clinton: Julian Assange.  other than that, i don't think she has a lot to worry about.

[Wisconsin Beth]

Yeah and I hate waiting...

[djAdvocate]

the national polls continue to deteriorate for Clinton, but the state polls are still pretty solid.

the swing states remain the same: OH, NC, IA, FL

Clinton still leads in two, Trump still leads in two.

however, the slow erosion of Clinton's numbers brings her odds of winning down to 2:1

[djAdvocate]

topping for D23.

i am moving Clinton back to 7:3 without further comment. 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 9, 2016 13:55:52 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Not bad for a deaf and mentally impaired lesbian killer from ArkillNY who coughs all over the children that she is about to sacrifice for the Devil herself!

anyone who can dodge 100 lawsuits and still find time to weed her minions with her handgun is doing ok, in my book. 

[djAdvocate]

i just remembered Obama joking about Clinton being "Annie Oakley".  but i digress.....

the four tossup states are truly tossup now: IA, NC, FL, OH.  they are all "too close to call", although i am pretty sure that Trump is going to take IA (though many firms are predicting he will lose it).

in addition, NV and, surprisingly, AZ are close to moving into this category.  the latter is a surprise, because AZ was trending for Trump for a very long time.  keeping a close eye on both.

NH is out of range for Trump at this point, and MT, MO, and GA are out of range for Clinton.

Trump needs to win all of the tossup states, NV, and NH to win.  and yes, that is certainly possible. 

[Tennesseer]

I got a good laugh out of Trump yesterday when he said the following:

"She could walk into this arena right now and shoot somebody with 20,000 people watching," Trump hypothesized, miming a gun with his fingers. "Right smack in the middle of the heart, and she wouldn't be prosecuted, okay? That's what happened. That is what's happened to our country."


Did he forget he said on January 23 of this year he said the following?

"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters"

[Opti]

Sept 10, 2016 16:40:33 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I got a good laugh out of Trump yesterday when he said the following:

"She could walk into this arena right now and shoot somebody with 20,000 people watching," Trump hypothesized, miming a gun with his fingers. "Right smack in the middle of the heart, and she wouldn't be prosecuted, okay? That's what happened. That is what's happened to our country."


Did he forget he said on January 23 of this year he said the following?

"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters"

We can always count on Trump coming up with a new outrageous statement. If we link them end to end I wonder how many times they go around the earth.

[Deleted]

Sept 10, 2016 16:40:33 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I got a good laugh out of Trump yesterday when he said the following:

"She could walk into this arena right now and shoot somebody with 20,000 people watching," Trump hypothesized, miming a gun with his fingers. "Right smack in the middle of the heart, and she wouldn't be prosecuted, okay? That's what happened. That is what's happened to our country."


Did he forget he said on January 23 of this year he said the following?

"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters"

In fairness though he never said he wouldn't be prosecuted... just that he wouldn't lose voters.

[Tennesseer]

Sept 10, 2016 19:44:07 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Sept 10, 2016 16:40:33 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I got a good laugh out of Trump yesterday when he said the following:

"She could walk into this arena right now and shoot somebody with 20,000 people watching," Trump hypothesized, miming a gun with his fingers. "Right smack in the middle of the heart, and she wouldn't be prosecuted, okay? That's what happened. That is what's happened to our country."


Did he forget he said on January 23 of this year he said the following?

"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters"

In fairness though he never said he wouldn't be prosecuted... just that he wouldn't lose voters.

In all fairness he was bragging about shooting people and maybe even winning the election. In all fsirness.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 30, 2016 13:16:47 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

poll nerd graph. 

ok, we are on this graph now.  what this graph says is that neither candidate (if averages hold) will win by double digits.  so despite what SOME people are saying, this will not be a rout.  we are not going to see 400+ EV on either side.  well, certainly not Trumps. 

edit: Trumps best chance is the first debate.  if he really clobbers Hillary, he can catch up.  if not, he is probably finished.  on the other hand, if Hillary crushes Trump in the first debate, it is probably over for him.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 10, 2016 11:58:06 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i just remembered Obama joking about Clinton being "Annie Oakley".  but i digress.....

the four tossup states are truly tossup now: IA, NC, FL, OH.  they are all "too close to call", although i am pretty sure that Trump is going to take IA (though many firms are predicting he will lose it).

in addition, NV and, surprisingly, AZ are close to moving into this category.  the latter is a surprise, because AZ was trending for Trump for a very long time.  keeping a close eye on both.

NH is out of range for Trump at this point, and MT, MO, and GA are out of range for Clinton.

Trump needs to win all of the tossup states, NV, and NH to win.  and yes, that is certainly possible. 

i am adding NV to the tossup column, but i should also mention that IA is back in play again for Clinton.  so we have (4) tossups, with NV leaning Clinton and the rest (in bold above) too close to call.

[Wisconsin Beth]

Sept 11, 2016 20:32:49 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 30, 2016 13:16:47 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

poll nerd graph. 

ok, we are on this graph now.  what this graph says is that neither candidate (if averages hold) will win by double digits.  so despite what SOME people are saying, this will not be a rout.  we are not going to see 400+ EV on either side.  well, certainly not Trumps. 

edit: Trumps best chance is the first debate.  if he really clobbers Hillary, he can catch up.  if not, he is probably finished.  on the other hand, if Hillary crushes Trump in the first debate, it is probably over for him.

what I've learned in the last year is to never count Trump out, sadly.

[djAdvocate]

thanks to a favorable poll in OH, Trump is now ahead in 3 of the four swing states: OH, IA, and NC.

i suspect that he will hang onto IA and NC.  OH is the big one.  Clinton needs to really work that state.

Trump still trails in FL, but just barely.  he trails significantly in NV and NH, both of which he has to win.

i still have him at 1:2 longshot.

[djAdvocate]

the people seem to be taking this "health issue" stuff seriously.

Clinton is now behind in all four of the swing states, and barely ahead in NV.

she is still strongly ahead in NH, but that is the "tipping point state".  the polls are in freefall right now.  i noticed it first with the LA Times poll, which is down 5% in two days.

if it were not for the fact that there are (9) weeks left, i would be giving this whole thing a lot more merit.

instead, i am scaling Clinton back to 5:3 to win.

[djAdvocate]

this is as tight as the race has been, yet.  i am dropping Clinton back to 3:2 favourite.

[djAdvocate]

Clinton is looking a bit better now.  9 of the last 10 national polls show her up.

as pointed out previously, the state polls lag, so things still look very grim and close for her in those.

of the five swing states: IA, FL, NC, OH, and NV, Trump leads in (4).  Clinton leads narrowly in Nevada.

there are now THREE states barely out of range of tossup: CO (this is new), NH, and AZ.  of these three, Trump leads in AZ.

Trump would need to win seven of those 8 to win the presidency.

Clinton remains 3:2 favorite

edit: i would rate her at 5:3 today, were it not for FLORIDA, which she continues to show very poorly in.  things also continue to deteriorate for Clinton in OH, NC, and IA*.  of those three, i think that OH is a state that she SHOULD be able to win.  i think that the other two are much bigger lifts.

on the other end of the spectrum, i am almost prepared to declare PA out of reach for Trump. he is polling really badly there.  some people say Oregon is in play, but i seriously doubt it.

the "next level" for Trump is MI, WI, and MN- but Clinton is holding steadily there.

i would also note that states that candidates have pretty well locked up are either trending for either candidate or holding steady.  those states are listed earlier in the thread, but roughly speaking the mid-Atlantic, West Coast, Illinois, and Virginia are solid Clinton, the Upper Midwest is leaning Clinton; the Mid-West and Deep South are Trump territory.
of the remaining states, i am going to say that IA is "Leaning Trump".  i never really thought this state was good for Clinton, but many polling firms predicted earlier she would win it, so we will see.

of the remaining states: OH, NC, FL, NV are tossup, and CO and NH are leaning Clinton.

[Wisconsin Beth]

I spent more time on freeways heading northeast this time - Sheboygan and Door County had some Trump signs. I only saw 3 signs for Hillary, all homemade. I saw a 20-30 signs for Russ Feingold and only 5-10 for Ron Johnson. And a ton of signs in Door County for Gallagher and Kitchens, of whom I know nothing.

My take is that very few people want to admit their Presidential leanings. Which leads into the holding their noses while they vote.

Eta to fix autocorrect of Russ from Russian

[djAdvocate]

the predicted range is still fairly wide: Trump +4 to Clinton +8. 

a week after the debate, we are going to have a much better idea of what is going to happen.

[djAdvocate]

the trend is still bad for Clinton, so i am going to push her back to 5:4 favorite.  she is very close to even odds.

Colorado is nearly tossup, as is NH.  if Trump were to win both and all of the other states he leads, he will win.

the "Blue Wall" has gotten really thin.

for those of you looking for hope, here it is: a trend reversal would increase Clinton's odds considerably, and SOME polls seem to be indicating she has turned the corner: there are 1-2 of them that are showing her UP in the last few days.

that having been said, this is a wild news cycle, and so it is very difficult to say how it will all play out.  i will add this one caveat: uncertainty tends to make people more conservative, and these are very uncertain times.

the debate is 6 days off.  i think it is safe to say that the candidates will either be tied, or Clinton will have a slight advantage going into them, though there is an outside chance that Trump will be leading by then.