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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2016 20:13:33 GMT -5
the trend is still bad for Clinton, so i am going to push her back to 5:4 favorite. she is very close to even odds. Colorado is nearly tossup, as is NH. if Trump were to win both and all of the other states he leads, he will win. the "Blue Wall" has gotten really thin. for those of you looking for hope, here it is: a trend reversal would increase Clinton's odds considerably, and SOME polls seem to be indicating she has turned the corner: there are 1-2 of them that are showing her UP in the last few days.that having been said, this is a wild news cycle, and so it is very difficult to say how it will all play out. i will add this one caveat: uncertainty tends to make people more conservative, and these are very uncertain times. the debate is 6 days off. i think it is safe to say that the candidates will either be tied, or Clinton will have a slight advantage going into them, though there is an outside chance that Trump will be leading by then. How is that "for those of you looking for hope"? |
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 20, 2016 20:35:14 GMT -5
the trend is still bad for Clinton, so i am going to push her back to 5:4 favorite. she is very close to even odds. Colorado is nearly tossup, as is NH. if Trump were to win both and all of the other states he leads, he will win. the "Blue Wall" has gotten really thin. for those of you looking for hope, here it is: a trend reversal would increase Clinton's odds considerably, and SOME polls seem to be indicating she has turned the corner: there are 1-2 of them that are showing her UP in the last few days.that having been said, this is a wild news cycle, and so it is very difficult to say how it will all play out. i will add this one caveat: uncertainty tends to make people more conservative, and these are very uncertain times. the debate is 6 days off. i think it is safe to say that the candidates will either be tied, or Clinton will have a slight advantage going into them, though there is an outside chance that Trump will be leading by then. How is that "for those of you looking for hope"? i meant "those of you Clinton supporters". most people probably got that.  |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2016 21:12:23 GMT -5
How is that "for those of you looking for hope"? i meant "those of you Clinton supporters". most people probably got that. Clinton supporters aren't looking for "hope" they are looking for "more of the same".   |
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 20, 2016 22:58:36 GMT -5
i meant "those of you Clinton supporters". most people probably got that. Clinton supporters aren't looking for "hope" they are looking for "more of the same". i am not sure that a Clinton supporter would know the difference. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2016 23:00:26 GMT -5
Actually all the betting odds I have seen have never dropped below 67 to 33...
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 20, 2016 23:12:31 GMT -5
Actually all the betting odds I have seen have never dropped below 67 to 33... i am playing the TREND right now. the oddsmakers don't buy the trend. and they might be right. also, the NYT has her at nearly 3:1, so there is that, too. odds are all over right now. i strongly suspect that i am being very conservative right now. and no doubt, it is sending a thrill down the legs of those that want to bash Hillary's brains in. i am enjoying the reaction candidly. i am a very bad person.  |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2016 23:52:41 GMT -5
Clinton supporters aren't looking for "hope" they are looking for "more of the same". i am not sure that a Clinton supporter would know the difference. Probably not... |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2016 6:00:37 GMT -5
I'm waiting to see how the debate goes Monday.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Sept 21, 2016 6:37:06 GMT -5
Actually all the betting odds I have seen have never dropped below 67 to 33... i am playing the TREND right now. the oddsmakers don't buy the trend. and they might be right. also, the NYT has her at nearly 3:1, so there is that, too. odds are all over right now. i strongly suspect that i am being very conservative right now. and no doubt, it is sending a thrill down the legs of those that want to bash Hillary's brains in. i am enjoying the reaction candidly. i am a very bad person. sometimes we have to be amused where we can. |
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 21, 2016 12:53:03 GMT -5
i am playing the TREND right now. the oddsmakers don't buy the trend. and they might be right. also, the NYT has her at nearly 3:1, so there is that, too. odds are all over right now. i strongly suspect that i am being very conservative right now. and no doubt, it is sending a thrill down the legs of those that want to bash Hillary's brains in. i am enjoying the reaction candidly. i am a very bad person. sometimes we have to be amused where we can. I used to be amused but I'm becoming tired.
This is such a stupid election cycle.
Every day, there is something disturbing on the Trump side - some really awful comment, or some greasy fact unearthed about his past business deals or his faux charity or his penchant for purchasing self portraits with OPMs. On the Clinton side, she's such a lack luster candidate. About as inspiring as a radish. Her attempts to seem trustworthy make her seem less trustworthy.
I wish I was retired and could go someplace remote for the next six months or so. Let the whole thing die down and resign myself to whatever POTUS we end up with.
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Post by dondub on Sept 21, 2016 13:05:33 GMT -5
I have done that already.  |
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 21, 2016 23:34:07 GMT -5
i am going to start doing this differently. i am only going to talk about the states that are not solidly for one candidate or another. roughly speaking, Clinton has about 200 EV locked up, and Trump has about 150. you can play games with those numbers a bit, and say that one or the other candidate has another 15, but that is about it. if you want to call it 175 a piece, be my guest (but i don't think that is very accurate). as i have said before, there is no way that one candidate skunks another in this election. this country is just too divided for that.
this brings us to the states that are either leaning or tossup. they will decide the election. if you live in one of these states, and you care about one of these candidates, either for or against, i encourage you to consider your vote carefully. it matters. here is the list of states, the relative position, and what either candidate needs to do to win.
leaning Clinton: CO, NH
leaning Trump: NC, IA, OH
tossup: FL, NV
it is really a small list, right? but that is the whole ball of wax. Trump needs to win six of those to win the election. Clinton needs to win two. i don't think a tie is possible with this particular list, so that is how this election will go.
i am raising Clinton's odds to 4:3 today. i stand by what i said earlier: if she CRUSHES Trump in the first debate, i think he is finished. if Trump CRUSHES Clinton, she might still have a chance, but it really changes the math for her.
i will add one final note: despite what Trump (and his surrogates) likes to tell people, the polling is very stable to increasing for both candidates. the vast majority of the states NOT on this list have high single digit or double digit leads for either candidate, and with less than 50 days to go, it is diminishingly unlikely that any of them are in play. part of the reason why a poll like the LAT doesn't matter that much is that if they are polling in the 43 states that are out of reach, their poll is worthless. of course, this goes for every other agency. i would therefore be inclined at this point to focus solely on the state polls listed above (and the national polls for a sense of whether the list is still good. it would take a 5% swing to change the list significantly). when you do that, you will find that NONE of these states CURRENTLY has a better than 5% advantage, and fully FOUR of the seven are within 3%.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 22, 2016 9:03:19 GMT -5
I saw a talking head speculating this morning that because there is a strong dislike on both sides, for both candidates, he thinks voter turnout might be historically low. Not sure if that would favor either or neither of the candidates.
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 22, 2016 11:16:01 GMT -5
Good question. Two groups I can guess would be repressed would be moderate Republicans and young progressives. Beyond that I wouldn't hazard a guess at this point. Do those two counterbalance? I think the young voters are traditionally bad at bothering to vote. One of the reasons Obama won was he was able to galvanize the progressive youth vote. I don't see Hillary getting much enthusiasm from that crowd.
The moderate republicans are harder to judge, I think. I think those that do bother to vote will do it because they are highly motivated against Hillary. Those that won't vote are the ones that don't like Hillary but can't stand Trump so they skip voting completely, or vote for Johnson.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2016 12:46:51 GMT -5
I saw a talking head speculating this morning that because there is a strong dislike on both sides, for both candidates, he thinks voter turnout might be historically low. Not sure if that would favor either or neither of the candidates. despite what some polls are showing, the general consensus is that Trump has a far worse negative rating than Clinton. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 22, 2016 12:48:27 GMT -5
Good question. Two groups I can guess would be repressed would be moderate Republicans and young progressives. Beyond that I wouldn't hazard a guess at this point. Do those two counterbalance? I think the young voters are traditionally bad at bothering to vote. One of the reasons Obama won was he was able to galvanize the progressive youth vote. I don't see Hillary getting much enthusiasm from that crowd.
The moderate republicans are harder to judge, I think. I think those that do bother to vote will do it because they are highly motivated against Hillary. Those that won't vote are the ones that don't like Hillary but can't stand Trump so they skip voting completely, or vote for Johnson.
this is precisely why i had to laugh when Paul posted the article about going for millenial votes. it is kinda like banking on your Drunk Uncle Bob to start leading a responsible life. if Hillary is banking on millenials, she is stupid. if Trump is going after that bloc, he is even dumber. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 23, 2016 3:50:06 GMT -5
there has been some slow improvement this week, but nothing has changed:
leaning Clinton: CO, NH
leaning Trump: NC, IA, OH
tossup: FL, NV
if things keep moving Clinton's way, CO is going to come off the leaning list, and OH is going to move to tossup.
i am moving her back to 3:2 favourite tonight.
if some of you are wondering: what has changed? the answer is: NOTHING- and that is great for CLINTON, because up until about a week ago, she was in a freefall- but that suddenly stopped- and because of that, the TREND is more even, which means that time starts to work in her favor again (since she has a small but durable lead). she is still polling very weak in the states listed above, just not as weak as a week ago.
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Post by mmhmm on Sept 23, 2016 12:23:08 GMT -5
I like THIS SITE if I'm looking for a quick take on what's going on. It's a good overall look and I have some faith in Nate Silver.  |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2016 19:09:55 GMT -5
there has been some slow improvement this week, but nothing has changed: leaning Clinton: CO, NH leaning Trump: NC, IA, OH tossup: FL, NV if things keep moving Clinton's way, CO is going to come off the leaning list, and OH is going to move to tossup. i am moving her back to 3:2 favourite tonight. if some of you are wondering: what has changed? the answer is: NOTHING- and that is great for CLINTON, because up until about a week ago, she was in a freefall- but that suddenly stopped- and because of that, the TREND is more even, which means that time starts to work in her favor again (since she has a small but durable lead). she is still polling very weak in the states listed above, just not as weak as a week ago.  |
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Post by tallguy on Sept 24, 2016 11:28:42 GMT -5
Why do I find this amusing? In the newest Breitbart/Gravis poll, the Donald Trump approval question does not even have a Favorable result listed. It is either Strongly Favorable, Unfavorable, or Strongly Unfavorable. Apparently nobody just "likes" Trump. His core supporters love him, but that is all he has, and leaves little room to appeal to more. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2016 12:30:28 GMT -5
there has been some slow improvement this week, but nothing has changed: leaning Clinton: CO, NH leaning Trump: NC, IA, OH tossup: FL, NV if things keep moving Clinton's way, CO is going to come off the leaning list, and OH is going to move to tossup. i am moving her back to 3:2 favourite tonight. if some of you are wondering: what has changed? the answer is: NOTHING- and that is great for CLINTON, because up until about a week ago, she was in a freefall- but that suddenly stopped- and because of that, the TREND is more even, which means that time starts to work in her favor again (since she has a small but durable lead). she is still polling very weak in the states listed above, just not as weak as a week ago. improvement in odds. sorry if that was unclear. |
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Post by dezailoooooo on Sept 24, 2016 14:34:24 GMT -5
I like THIS SITE if I'm looking for a quick take on what's going on. It's a good overall look and I have some faith in Nate Silver. never knew about that site...have to take a look.......oooowwww...nice, I like that site too...think will make it one of my faverites too... |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2016 16:13:20 GMT -5
I have a geek crush on Nate Silver. 538 and realpolitics.com are my daily check ins.
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2016 16:21:25 GMT -5
I have a geek crush on Nate Silver. 538 and realpolitics.com are my daily check ins. i like him, too. i think it is great that the right is laughing at him right now. it will make it funner when he is right again. Clinton's national numbers are firming up. she is now 3% ahead- her best lead in 3 weeks. since the state numbers lag, we are really not seeing it translate downstream yet, so she remains 3:2. furthermore, the debate throws considerable uncertainty into the picture. Clinton could bury Trump, or he might throw it back into a tie. it is really impossible to say, so i will simply watch and make up my own mind about it. i encourage everyone here to do the same. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2016 19:13:54 GMT -5
improvement in odds. sorry if that was unclear. Improvement in who's/what's odds though? Our odds of getting a worthy President? Nope Johnson's odds? Probably not Stein's odds? Also unlikely Trump's odds? Hah! You call that an "improvement"? Never ever gonna happen. Hillary's odds? Probably... but an increase in her odds isn't an improvement to people that think she's a poor choice. |
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Post by Opti on Sept 24, 2016 19:27:37 GMT -5
Correct. But it is good for us who want to avoid Trumpeggedon. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2016 19:35:22 GMT -5
Correct. But it is good for us who want to avoid Trumpeggedon. My point was saying it's an "improvement" without a qualifier is a very bad choice of phrasing. Some of us would like the country to start recovering from 16 years of bad Presidents... Hillary is as likely to cause that to happen as Trump is. (for the record, that means there's NO chance of it with either of them) |
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2016 20:17:05 GMT -5
Correct. But it is good for us who want to avoid Trumpeggedon. My point was saying it's an "improvement" without a qualifier is a very bad choice of phrasing. Some of us would like the country to start recovering from 16 years of bad Presidents... Hillary is as likely to cause that to happen as Trump is. (for the record, that means there's NO chance of it with either of them) i meant it purely from HER perspective, Richard. if you would prefer, i will simply say "gone up" from now on. can you please put this down, now? i find it really upsetting that you are so agitated about such a small thing. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2016 20:23:04 GMT -5
Imprecision and falsehoods presented as facts are a pet peeve of mine (this was a little of both)... sorry. If Johnson wins, I promise to work on that!
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 24, 2016 20:25:21 GMT -5
Imprecision and falsehoods presented as facts are a pet peeve of mine (this was a little of both)... sorry. If Johnson wins, I promise to work on that! please forgive my imprecisions, Richard. i am by no means perfect. TYIA. when i talk about odds, i use "improving" OFTEN, to the point that i don't actually think about it. please accept that. |
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