djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2016 11:20:00 GMT -5
three good polls from Emerson for Trump in PA, OH, and MI. they all show him trailing or tied, and about 3-4% closer than the previous polling done in those places.
i don't put much weight in single polls like this, so i am leaving Clinton at 3:1 for now.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2016 14:42:22 GMT -5
update: a new national poll from Monmouth shows Clinton +7%. Monmouth is a top tier pollster, so i think this poll is both significant and accurate.
the general trend is up for BOTH Clinton and Trump and down for Johnson in the last (2) weeks. Clinton now stands at her best level in (4) months, and Trump is +1% from (2) weeks ago. i am attributing it to the softening of his position on immigration and the black outreach. unfortunately for him, it has not closed the gap.
so, here we are- less than 10 weeks away, and he is still trailing in all of the swing states (although NC is basically tied).
i have also noted something really interesting about Virginia. it is not only not a swing state, it is less likely to than the entire upper midwest and Maine. Trump is about as likely to win New Mexico as Virginia. never thought i would be saying that.
on the other hand, Trump is doing very well in Nevada. that race should not be competitive given the general standing of Clinton in this race, but it is not only competitive, it is within MOE. Trump has maybe a 1/3 chance of winning it- much better than his chances of winning the GE. which is pretty weird.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 29, 2016 16:42:08 GMT -5
update: a new national poll from Monmouth shows Clinton +7%. Monmouth is a top tier pollster, so i think this poll is both significant and accurate. the general trend is up for BOTH Clinton and Trump and down for Johnson in the last (2) weeks. Clinton now stands at her best level in (4) months, and Trump is +1% from (2) weeks ago. i am attributing it to the softening of his position on immigration and the black outreach. unfortunately for him, it has not closed the gap.
I know Trump tried to soften him immigration stance because he's trying to appeal to the non-white voters.
However, I think for every non-white voter he might be gaining with his waffling on 'kicking them all out,' he's losing one of his previous supporters whose enthusiastic support for Trump came from his politically incorrect, anti-Washington, very strong talk about not only closing the border but rounding up and kicking out all the illegals.
I don't think those voters would ever vote for Clinton, but putting myself in their shoes, if illegal immigrants were a really hot button topic for me, I would be pissed as hell that Trump is back peddling on this issue, and I might be disgusted enough not to vote at all, at least not in the POTUS race.
It's the main thing that separated him from the rest of the GOP pack - and now he's sounding almost like what he used to be - a democrat.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 29, 2016 17:07:15 GMT -5
update: a new national poll from Monmouth shows Clinton +7%. Monmouth is a top tier pollster, so i think this poll is both significant and accurate. the general trend is up for BOTH Clinton and Trump and down for Johnson in the last (2) weeks. Clinton now stands at her best level in (4) months, and Trump is +1% from (2) weeks ago. i am attributing it to the softening of his position on immigration and the black outreach. unfortunately for him, it has not closed the gap.
I know Trump tried to soften him immigration stance because he's trying to appeal to the non-white voters.
However, I think for every non-white voter he might be gaining with his waffling on 'kicking them all out,' he's losing one of his previous supporters whose enthusiastic support for Trump came from his politically incorrect, anti-Washington, very strong talk about not only closing the border but rounding up and kicking out all the illegals.
I don't think those voters would ever vote for Clinton, but putting myself in their shoes, if illegal immigrants were a really hot button topic for me, I would be pissed as hell that Trump is back peddling on this issue, and I might be disgusted enough not to vote at all, at least not in the POTUS race.
It's the main thing that separated him from the rest of the GOP pack - and now he's sounding almost like what he used to be - a democrat.
i agree to a large extent. but Trump has power as a protest candidate, and he is not going to lose that no matter how much he waffles. i think that some people will get tired of him, and some will be drawn away from Johnson back to him. but here is what i also think: that for every vote he gains, Clinton gains one, as well. that is not as obvious, until you look at the makeup of Johnson and Stein voters. |
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dezailoooooo
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Post by dezailoooooo on Aug 30, 2016 10:20:25 GMT -5
was wondering how the electorial voting possibilities were shaping up...while popular vote standards are interesting..as is size of crowds attending rallies..[ thinking Donalds sometime large ones ]...for me it's all about electorial college being only real game in town so did a bit,,and it was a quick one..googling and following site has a bunch of different suggested outcomes electorial wise. as a known middle to the left, supporter of Obama from the get go..and supporter of Hillery..possible warts and all..though really don't know what the fuss is about her really...all the polls give me a bit of a relief..understanding it's still ..election day..a ways away and anything can happen..though better to be in the lead rather then play catch up. interesting how all polls seem to be similer % wise in their conclusions of predictability.. thought some might find interesting as i did.... www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/2016 Presidential Election Forecasts How the 2016 electoral map landscape is currently looking from the vantage point of a number of professional and media forecasters. |
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 30, 2016 11:14:30 GMT -5
In other political news today, former Texas governor Rick Perry will be one of the contestants on this fall's Dancing With The Stars.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 30, 2016 11:48:39 GMT -5
was wondering how the electoial voting possibilities were shaping up...while popular vote standards are interesting..as is size of crowds attending rallies..[ thinking Donalds sometime large ones ]...for me it's all about electorial college being only real game in town so did a bit,,and it was a quick one..googling and following site has a bunch of different suggested outcomes electorial wise. as a known middle to the left, supporter of Obama from the get go..and supporter of Hillery..possible warts and all..though really don't know what the fuss is about her really...all the polls give me a bit of a relief..understanding it's still ..election day..a ways away and anything can happen..though better to be in the lead rather then play catch up. interestin how aqll polls seem to be similer % wise in their conclusions of predictability.. thought some might find interesting as i did.... www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/2016 Presidential Election Forecasts How the 2016 electoral map landscape is currently looking from the vantage point of a number of professional and media forecasters. most of the prognosticators are predicting about a 350:175 victory for Clinton right now- but of course this might not hold up. |
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 30, 2016 12:37:43 GMT -5
In other political news today, former Texas governor Rick Perry will be one of the contestants on this fall's Dancing With The Stars. Curious career path for a politician.
Maybe he's going the Sarah Palin route and trying to be a celebrity?
Or maybe he just likes the fat paycheck - I don't blame him.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 30, 2016 13:09:06 GMT -5
In other political news today, former Texas governor Rick Perry will be one of the contestants on this fall's Dancing With The Stars. Curious career path for a politician.
Maybe he's going the Sarah Palin route and trying to be a celebrity?
Or maybe he just likes the fat paycheck - I don't blame him.
i am sure his nice hair will be used to good affect out there on the dance floor. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 30, 2016 13:16:47 GMT -5
 poll nerd graph.  |
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 30, 2016 17:01:08 GMT -5
In other political news today, former Texas governor Rick Perry will be one of the contestants on this fall's Dancing With The Stars. Curious career path for a politician.
Maybe he's going the Sarah Palin route and trying to be a celebrity?
Or maybe he just likes the fat paycheck - I don't blame him.
"Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!" will be another contestant. |
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 30, 2016 17:47:39 GMT -5
Curious career path for a politician.
Maybe he's going the Sarah Palin route and trying to be a celebrity?
Or maybe he just likes the fat paycheck - I don't blame him.
"Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!" will be another contestant. Is Marsha also going to be a contestant?
Because I would dearly love to see the middle sister stomp her foot and say 'Marsha Marsha Marsha' when Marsha scores better than she does.
Might make me watch that show for the first time ever. Might.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 30, 2016 18:08:57 GMT -5
"Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!" will be another contestant. Is Marsha also going to be a contestant?
Because I would dearly love to see the middle sister stomp her foot and say 'Marsha Marsha Marsha' when Marsha scores better than she does.
Might make me watch that show for the first time ever. Might.
No, Jan won't be on. Just Marsha (Maureen McCormick). Maybe a dance will revolve around the famous football scene. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 31, 2016 13:47:13 GMT -5
there were two favorable polls for Trump in Wisconsin today. coupled with two last week, the odds of winning that state have dramatically improved for Trump. he has gone from 1:6 to about 1:3 (about the same as his national average).
based on this, and a very very slow (but perceptable) softening in Clinton's lead, i am changing her odds of winning from 3:1 to 7:3
swing states remain the same, although Trump is now leading in NC: NC, NH, IA, OH
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2016 12:10:26 GMT -5
there was some encouraging polling for Clinton in the last (24) hours, but clearly, she is in the worst position she has been in a month @+4%
i am not saying this because her odds have changed. but i think this is a critical moment in the campaign. Trump has been trying out new immigration positions like new socks, or tapas, or something. and some of them seemed pretty reasonable- the kind that Bush and Rubio proposed. but then, he always pivots back to the round them up and deport them rhetoric, which is just never going to work, in that it is not actually a policy statement, it is a nationalist fantasy.
so, imo, he drifts further into losing territory from here, and Clinton's odds of winning rise.
now, of course, i could be wrong. predicting Trump is like predicting the weather. there is a LOT of uncertainty.
i am banking on the uncertainty being the thing that does him in.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 1, 2016 12:47:47 GMT -5
Normally I'm lukewarm about presidential debates, but I'm looking forward to the first one.
Trump claims he isn't studying because he doesn't need to (due to his fabulous brain and all). I'm sure Hillary is practicing continually, being the cautious person she is.
What are the odds Trump blurts out something so over the top he can't back away from it the next day? Or will Hillary stand there, wooden and uncharismatic, while Trump reels off one clever ad lib line after the other, winning the hearts and minds of all who listen?
I have a prediction, but I'm eager to see if I'm right. |
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ken a.k.a OMK
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Sept 1, 2016 13:03:07 GMT -5
The longer she lets Trump ramble on, the better for her. Assuming the mods tell him he's done or didn't answer the question. She just needs to address the questions and not Trump. There's no teleprompter to keep him on topic. I expect he'll resort to name calling. He can't name countries, their leaders or our military leaders. I hope they ask him about the money donated for vets that he tried to keep.
I expect Trump to go off topic quickly. Clinton's stamina, Benghazi deaths, etc.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2016 13:42:37 GMT -5
you are assuming that there will be debates. i don't think this is certain, yet.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Sept 1, 2016 14:30:06 GMT -5
you are assuming that there will be debates. i don't think this is certain, yet. It would certainly be interesting to see how Americans responded if one or the other refused to attend the scheduled debates. |
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NomoreDramaQ1015
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Sept 1, 2016 14:32:52 GMT -5
We still haven't seen Clinton's long form birth certificate yet.  |
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Sept 1, 2016 15:15:10 GMT -5
Well, we know she was born in the states, but maybe she needs to prove she's still alive?
Maybe her health is so bad she's already dead?
Let's search for the smoking gun death certificate!!!
Watch out if she gets bitey - you know how those zombies are... |
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Sept 1, 2016 15:48:35 GMT -5
Maybe Hillary has made the Clinton Body-Count List!
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ken a.k.a OMK
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They killed Kenny, the bastards.
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Post by ken a.k.a OMK on Sept 1, 2016 15:52:42 GMT -5
I haven't seen Trumps taxes, birth certificate, draft deferment or college diploma.  |
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Sept 1, 2016 16:00:13 GMT -5
Can you see his White privilege?
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 1, 2016 17:03:03 GMT -5
MEXICAN PRESIDENT SAYS HE MADE TRUMP PAY FOR LUNCHBy Andy Borowitz , 12:24 P.M. MEXICO CITY (The Borowitz Report)—The war of words between Donald J. Trump and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto continued on Thursday as Peña Nieto vehemently asserted that he made the Republican Presidential nominee pay for lunch during his visit to Mexico City. “As soon as we sat down to order, I made it very clear that I had no intention of paying for lunch,” Peña Nieto said. “And when the check arrived, I made absolutely no move to pick it up.” To support his claim, Peña Nieto tweeted out a photo of himself seated at a table with an aggrieved-looking Trump, who appears to be placing an American Express card on top of a restaurant check. Responding to the Mexican President’s claim, the Trump campaign issued a statement of its own. “As anyone who has read ‘The Art of the Deal’ knows, Donald J. Trump is a master negotiator,” the statement began. “While he did pay for Peña Nieto’s lunch, he extracted a commitment from the Mexican President to pick up the check the next time they go to dinner. It’s a well-established fact that dinner is far, far more expensive than lunch. Yet again, Donald Trump entered into a negotiation and won big.” Minutes after the Trump campaign released its statement, Peña Nieto took to Twitter again, where he indicated he had “no intention” of ever having dinner with Trump. MEXICAN PRESIDENT SAYS HE MADE TRUMP PAY FOR LUNCH
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2016 17:20:35 GMT -5
Can you see his White privilege?  |
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Sept 1, 2016 17:39:17 GMT -5
That dress is defying the laws of gravity. Is it attached to some sort of fishing line?
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Sept 1, 2016 17:43:03 GMT -5
Can you see his White privilege? In that picture, I can see Muslims dancing on their building roofs in N.J... |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Sept 1, 2016 17:52:10 GMT -5
humility is not his strong suit.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Sept 1, 2016 18:39:55 GMT -5
Who here besides me thinks that gilded interior BS is Tackytown Deluxe?
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