General Election 2016: Clinton -vs- Trump

[djAdvocate]

this has been a slow polling weekend.  very little has changed.

the good news for Trump: the LA Times national poll has him at +2% again.
the good news for Clinton: the latest Ohio poll has her at +6%, and gaining.

net impact: nil.

Clinton is still 3:1 to beat Trump.  tossup states are still NV, OH, FL, IA, and NC.  Clinton still leads in all of them.

[djAdvocate]

the polling data is still moving very slowly, but we have some more trickling in.

Clinton has dropped about 1% from a week ago, and is settling in at +5.5%

Trump got a good poll in NC which shows him +1%

Clinton got good polls in VA and OH, the former of which shows her +16%

i am taking NV out of the tossups and marking it "leans Democrat".

the new tosssup list is the same as the old one (before NV was added):

OH, IA, NC, FL

Clinton seems to have bottomed out here, but remains at 3:1 favourite.  time is starting to work against Trump.

[steff]

Been an interesting week so far when it comes to family on Facebook. 

On my mom's side, I have a cousin who lives in Houston & her job is as a judicial activist (something like that).  She is with an organization that helps blacks coming out of prison to find jobs & housing & adjust to being out along with helping low income blacks find legal council for criminal trials.   She went to counter protest the white activists that were outside the NAACP headquarters this past weekend.  she posted videos from it.  Her group stood across the street & sung hymns.  The things that were said to their group were unbelievable.  My cousin also happens to be 1/8th native American, so she's more "brown" than most, has very short spiky hair & has a black boyfriend.  She was called a dyke, told to go back where she came from, to swim back across the river, an 'n' lover, and told that she'd be sent back where she came from when Trump was elected.  In the video you can hear her laugh at that one. 


On my dad's side, my 2nd cousin (I think, my grampa's brother's kid) and her husband went to the Trump rally in Austin tonight.  Posted lots of pictures from it.  Including pics with the couple dressed in prison stripes trying to represent Bill & Hillary.  Comment with that pic "Is so great to meet up with family".  Dear Gawd, I could be related to those 2 idiots that I had already seen on twitter in pics.  I know that my great aunt (I think, my grampa's brother's wife) is a Texas Republican delegate who was initially for Cruz.  She was on the floor at the convention & NOT happy about no roll call.  But I guess she got over it because that whole family are now Trump followers. 

Just to be hysterically confusing...

on my mom's side, my great aunt (my gramma's sister) is a rabid Trump supporter.  Her husband is a former Texas Deputy & prison guard.  We've all had to just mute her on Fb because she's become bat shit crazy.

on my dad's side, my aunt (my dad's sister) was a huge Bernie supporter.  She is a retired 1st grade teacher (35 years) & a never married (possibly heavily closeted) old maid.  She has all but given up posting on Fb because she got so much crap from family over being a Bernie supporter. 

[Pants]

steff- I feel you. My father in law is going to vote trump. My husband asked him why:
DH: Why are you voting trump?
FIL: Hillary and Bill signed a pact with the devil.
DH: Like, metaphorically?
FIL: No.
DH:...
FIL: BENGHAZI!

[Wisconsin Beth]

I assume my MIL and FIL are voting Trump. Happily, the usual political conversations at their house are down by about 75%. This may change as the election gets closer though. But the last 2 presidential elections cycles were pretty vocal at their house.

My family tends to not discuss politics at all.

[Tennesseer]

Aug 24, 2016 7:36:13 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

I assume my MIL and FIL are voting Trump. Happily, the usual political conversations at their house are down by about 75%. This may change as the election gets closer though. But the last 2 presidential elections cycles were pretty vocal at their house.

My family tends to not discuss politics at all.

I believe all of us are happy the presidential election will take place before Thanksgiving and Christmas. The damage will already be done depending upon who everyone supported for president. Less chatter at family gatherings on which candidate is the bigger jerk.

If the election was after Thanksgiving and Christmas, it would be time to bring in the big guns: Adele.

[happyhoix]

Aug 24, 2016 9:09:25 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Aug 24, 2016 7:36:13 GMT -5 Wisconsin Beth said:

I assume my MIL and FIL are voting Trump. Happily, the usual political conversations at their house are down by about 75%. This may change as the election gets closer though. But the last 2 presidential elections cycles were pretty vocal at their house.

My family tends to not discuss politics at all.

I believe all of us are happy the presidential election will take place before Thanksgiving and Christmas. The damage will already be done depending upon who everyone supported for president. Less chatter at family gatherings on which candidate is the bigger jerk.

If the election was after Thanksgiving and Christmas, it would be time to bring in the big guns: Adele.

Awesome!

[Tennesseer]

Aug 24, 2016 10:46:50 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Aug 24, 2016 9:09:25 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I believe all of us are happy the presidential election will take place before Thanksgiving and Christmas. The damage will already be done depending upon who everyone supported for president. Less chatter at family gatherings on which candidate is the bigger jerk.

If the election was after Thanksgiving and Christmas, it would be time to bring in the big guns: Adele.

Awesome!

Later on in that episode of SNL last November, the musical guest was Adele singing....'Hello'! I imagine Adele found the video funny.

[djAdvocate]

Clinton continues slipping in the national polls, but her state poll numbers look good.

Trump got a very nice poll out of Florida today, but from a low rated poster.

the time factor is starting to figure in, now.  i am putting Clinton back to 7:2 favourite.

[djAdvocate]

interesting article:

www.globaltimes.cn/content/1002157.shtml

Asked by which presidential candidate would do the best job as president of managing the US economy, 55 percent of economists picked Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, while 15 percent chose Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and 14 percent selected Republican nominee Donald Trump.

DT came in 3rd! 

[steff]

Aug 24, 2016 5:38:32 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

You must have interesting get togethers at Thanksgiving.

Thankfully, our Thanksgiving dinners have gotten smaller & smaller.  I'm getting too old for bat shit crazy extended family. 

[djAdvocate]

Aug 24, 2016 13:03:16 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

I am no polling expert, but I read on the mainline news feed this morning that a new Reuters Ipsos poll has Clinton up 12% over Trump with a poll of likely voters. That is a big spread.


An interesting aside on that poll was that 20+% indicated they were not voting for either of them.  That could portend some instability I would think.  Is it normal for that number to be that high at this point?


ETA- Again, to emphasize, Not undecided, but would not vote for either- big difference!

yeah, it is a big number, but it probably won't matter.  the dirty secret of the political parties is that 3rd party candidates tend to draw equally from both major parties.  the deleterious effects are slightly in Trump's favor, for some reason, but it is less than 1%.  in other words, if the race is within 1%, it favors Trump, otherwise, it will have no impact on the outcome.

if you can link that poll, i would appreciate it.  i have not seen ANYTHING that favorable for Clinton in WEEKS.

[weltschmerz]

Aug 24, 2016 13:55:11 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 24, 2016 13:03:16 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

I am no polling expert, but I read on the mainline news feed this morning that a new Reuters Ipsos poll has Clinton up 12% over Trump with a poll of likely voters. That is a big spread.


An interesting aside on that poll was that 20+% indicated they were not voting for either of them.  That could portend some instability I would think.  Is it normal for that number to be that high at this point?


ETA- Again, to emphasize, Not undecided, but would not vote for either- big difference!

yeah, it is a big number, but it probably won't matter.  the dirty secret of the political parties is tHillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 12 points in latest pollhat 3rd party candidates tend to draw equally from both major parties.  the deleterious effects are slightly in Trump's favor, for some reason, but it is less than 1%.  in other words, if the race is within 1%, it favors Trump, otherwise, it will have no impact on the outcome.

if you can link that poll, i would appreciate it.  i have not seen ANYTHING that favorable for Clinton in WEEKS.

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 12 points in latest poll

globalnews.ca/news/2899619/hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-by-12-points-in-latest-poll/

[Tennesseer]

Eric Trump on Wednesday dismissed arguments that his father, Donald Trump, should release his tax returns, saying doing so would be "foolish."

“You would have a bunch of people who know nothing about taxes trying to look through and trying to come up with assumptions on things they know nothing about,” Eric Trump said Wednesday on CNBC.

“It would be foolish to do. I’m actually the biggest proponent of not doing it.”

Eric Trump: It would be 'foolish' for my dad to release tax returns

Does Eric Trump think there are no tax experts able to correctly decipher his father's tax returns? Really?

[djAdvocate]

Georgia and Arizona are the next line of defense for Trump.  if things go badly for him, these states will turn tossup.  so far, he has not faltered in either place, so, i have left these two states in his column.

today, Trump got (2) polls which bolstered this position in Arizona.  this state is now more out of reach for Clinton than at any time in the campaign.

Georgia remains a possibility for her, but there is no polling data to support this position at this juncture.  the last positive poll she had was over two weeks ago.

these are not really safe states for Trump, yet, but they are not tossups, either.  they are leaning Trump, and today reinforced that perspective.

edit: i just noticed that Missouri is a closer contest than Arizona at this point- just to show you how far Arizona moved today (this morning, it was the most likely Trump state to go Clinton, now it is 3rd most likely, behind GA and MO).

[Opti]

Aug 24, 2016 18:02:54 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Eric Trump on Wednesday dismissed arguments that his father, Donald Trump, should release his tax returns, saying doing so would be "foolish."

“You would have a bunch of people who know nothing about taxes trying to look through and trying to come up with assumptions on things they know nothing about,” Eric Trump said Wednesday on CNBC.

“It would be foolish to do. I’m actually the biggest proponent of not doing it.”

Eric Trump: It would be 'foolish' for my dad to release tax returns

Does Eric Trump think there are no tax experts able to correctly decipher his father's tax returns? Really?

OK, he's playing the party line and possibly umm the stupid card. From your link:

Eric Trump said on Wednesday that there is "no tax attorney in the world who will tell you to release your tax returns while you're under a standard routine audit."

He added, "You don't learn that much from a tax return.

"You learn a lot more when you look at somebody's assets. You know how many hotels we have around the world. You know how many golf courses we have around the world. You know every single building we have."

I'd learn more from a tax return than just guessing how useful your assets were from year to year and even if they were your assets.   Well at least we have someone in the family to carry on with silly statements should Donald J. falter.

[Tennesseer]

Aug 24, 2016 18:14:22 GMT -5 Opti said:

Aug 24, 2016 18:02:54 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Eric Trump: It would be 'foolish' for my dad to release tax returns

Does Eric Trump think there are no tax experts able to correctly decipher his father's tax returns? Really?

OK, he's playing the party line and possibly umm the stupid card. From your link:

Eric Trump said on Wednesday that there is "no tax attorney in the world who will tell you to release your tax returns while you're under a standard routine audit."

He added, "You don't learn that much from a tax return.

"You learn a lot more when you look at somebody's assets. You know how many hotels we have around the world. You know how many golf courses we have around the world. You know every single building we have."

I'd learn more from a tax return than just guessing how useful your assets were from year to year and even if they were your assets.   Well at least we have someone in the family to carry on with silly statements should Donald J. falter.

Trump claims his golf courses are worth tens of millions. Until the tax bill arrives.

When Donald Trump submitted financial disclosure forms to election regulators, he bragged that his portfolio included some of the “finest and most iconic properties in the world.” Among them was Trump National Golf Club Jupiter in Jupiter, Fla., which Trump valued at more than $50 million.

That came as a surprise to officials in Palm Beach County, where the golf course is located. A few months earlier, for the third straight year, Trump’s attorney had gone to court to argue that, for the sake of calculating his tax bill, the property was worth “no more than $5 million.”



Full article here. Trump claims his golf courses are worth tens of millions. Until the tax bill arrives

[Deleted]

Aug 24, 2016 19:33:20 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Aug 24, 2016 18:14:22 GMT -5 Opti said:

OK, he's playing the party line and possibly umm the stupid card. From your link:

Eric Trump said on Wednesday that there is "no tax attorney in the world who will tell you to release your tax returns while you're under a standard routine audit."

He added, "You don't learn that much from a tax return.

"You learn a lot more when you look at somebody's assets. You know how many hotels we have around the world. You know how many golf courses we have around the world. You know every single building we have."

I'd learn more from a tax return than just guessing how useful your assets were from year to year and even if they were your assets.   Well at least we have someone in the family to carry on with silly statements should Donald J. falter.

Trump claims his golf courses are worth tens of millions. Until the tax bill arrives.

When Donald Trump submitted financial disclosure forms to election regulators, he bragged that his portfolio included some of the “finest and most iconic properties in the world.” Among them was Trump National Golf Club Jupiter in Jupiter, Fla., which Trump valued at more than $50 million.

That came as a surprise to officials in Palm Beach County, where the golf course is located. A few months earlier, for the third straight year, Trump’s attorney had gone to court to argue that, for the sake of calculating his tax bill, the property was worth “no more than $5 million.”



Full article here. Trump claims his golf courses are worth tens of millions. Until the tax bill arrives

devaluing for tax purposes isn't exactly anything new. if anyone owns a home... look at the "assessed value for property tax purposes" on your home. It's likely less than you think it is.

Last home I owned was listed on the tax rolls as being worth about 35% of what I paid for it (and that wasn't my doing... that was the official value on record, as decided and entered into the system by the county tax assessor!).

[djAdvocate]

a treasure trove of polls came out tonight from Reuters-Ipsos.

they are a mixed bag for both candidates.  in some states they show major gains for Clinton (most notably MO, OH, MT, WV and the states that she was already slated to win handily).  in others they show major gains for Trump (most notably MI, PA, WI, CO, NH, ME*, and the states he was already doing well in).  i think the net result was favorable to Trump, so.....

i am taking Clinton back to 3:1; no changes in tossups = still OH, FL, NC, and IA.

i also think that NC is the most interesting state at this juncture.  it is hard to predict who will win that right now.  the last FOUR surveys there were ALL within polling error.  it is an incredibly tight race.

one final note: there has been basically no movement in the race in (3) weeks.  we have (4) more weeks before the first presidential debate.  if Trump KILLS Clinton, it will make a HUUUUUUUUUGE difference for him.  the first debate is always the largest impact, so if he fails to score points in that debate, he is probably done-for, unless something major breaks AGAINST Clinton in the meantime.

*regarding Maine:  there is 30% undecided in that race, which is unusually large.  i would not rely on the Ipsos poll, there.

[djAdvocate]

today was a fantastic polling day for Clinton:

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Quinnipiac has been a rough poll for her, so the fact that she is +10 in that survey is big.

no change to the odds, but it appears that her "slippage" has indeed stopped at approximately +6%

[tallguy]

Not only being +10, but being at 51.  Is that the first time either have polled at over 50 nationally?

[djAdvocate]

Aug 25, 2016 19:43:01 GMT -5 tallguy said:

Not only being +10, but being at 51.  Is that the first time either have polled at over 50 nationally?

no.  Trump has never crossed 50, but back in March, Clinton's polling AVERAGE was over 50.

edit: strike that- Trump was over (50) on the Gravis survey on July 22nd- which was pretty much his high water mark for the campaign.

[djAdvocate]

two good polls for Trump today: one in FL and one national.  both show he has gained a couple of % in the last week.

so, this is drifting back Trump's direction, but nothing has really changed.  it is just slightly closer.

[Tennesseer]

PENCE RECAPTURED AFTER FLEEING TRUMP CAMPAIGN BUS
By Andy Borowitz

VIRGINIA (The Borowitz Report)—Calling it a “scary moment” and a “close call,” Donald Trump’s campaign officials confirmed that they had recaptured Mike Pence after the Indiana governor attempted to flee the campaign bus in the early hours of Friday morning.

According to the campaign, Pence had asked to stop at a McDonald’s in rural Virginia so that he could use the bathroom, but aides grew concerned when the governor failed to reappear after twenty minutes.

After determining that Pence had given them the slip, Trump staffers fanned out across the Virginia backcountry, where the governor was believed to have fled.

News that Pence had vanished touched off a panic in Indiana, where residents feared that he might return to resume his political career.

After forty-five minutes of searching, however, campaign officials located a bedraggled and dazed Pence walking along Virginia State Route 287, where the Republican Vice-Presidential nominee was attempting unsuccessfully to hitch a ride.

A confrontation that Trump aides characterized as “tense” ensued, after which a sobbing Pence returned to the bus.

In the aftermath of Pence’s disappearance, Hope Hicks, Trump’s press secretary, attempted to downplay the severity of the incident. “This is the kind of thing that happens in the course of a long and demanding campaign,” she said. “Having said that, we’re grateful to have Mike Pence back with us, and we won’t let him get away again.”

Reportedly, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie offered to fill in for Pence in the event that he became unable to fulfill his duties. That offer was declined.

PENCE RECAPTURED AFTER FLEEING TRUMP CAMPAIGN BUS

[Icelandic Woman]

[djAdvocate]

so, the Ipsos poll puts NH at Trump +15- which is obviously an outlier, but also can't be ignored.

i am putting that one back in the swing category.  so now it is NH, FL, IA, NC, and OH.

odds remain Clinton 3:1, but it is a softer 3 than a week ago.

edit: the latest IPSOS polls were generally more favorable for Trump than Clinton, and show some stuff that hasn't been seen in a while, if ever during the campaign.  namely, it shows the upper midwest "in play".  it also shows Trump competitive in NH and ME, which is not shown in any other polls.

either IPSOS is right, or they are making some demographic assumptions that don't hold nationally.  the latter is what 538 has assumed.

[djAdvocate]

if you are wondering why i am not altering my odds on Clinton winning, this is why:

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Clinton is now at her best polling numbers in FOUR MONTHS.  so, what we see now is that the state data and the national data are diverging again.  based on prior experience, the state data tends to LAG the national data, and i think i know WHY that is true now: it is much easier to collect national data, and much more COMMON to do so.

what do i mean by that?  it is easy to find 500 people WHOSE DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES MATCH THE NATIONAL ELECTORATE in a pool of over 100M than it is to, say, do so in a state like NH, which has 316,000 registered voters.  this is WHY many of the Ipsos surveys have taken THREE WEEKS to complete.  it is a very interesting problem that i had not considered before this cycle, but i am thinking about it strenuously today. 

[Deleted]

Can you post a link to the IPSOS NH poll?  +15 in NH just seems unbelievable.  

[djAdvocate]

Aug 27, 2016 16:07:39 GMT -5 @pooks said:

Can you post a link to the IPSOS NH poll?  +15 in NH just seems unbelievable.  

sure thing- but it is an IMMENSE survey.  it covers something like (25) states.  brb.

[djAdvocate]

good luck weeding through this.  i could not find the SPECIFIC data for NH anywhere here.  if you find it, post it, because, like you, i would love to read it:

www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/states-of-the-nation-explainer/