kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Aug 6, 2016 8:09:59 GMT -5
Just saw on the net (MSN) that a new poll only has Hillary ahead by 3 points.  the Economist poll also has her at +3. it is on the outer fringe of what i think is likely right now. Thanks for the clarification. As you may have guessed....I haven't read all 21 pages of this thread. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 6, 2016 12:07:02 GMT -5
the Economist poll also has her at +3. it is on the outer fringe of what i think is likely right now. Thanks for the clarification. As you may have guessed....I haven't read all 21 pages of this thread. yeah, it is not really necessary. polls are to a presidential race what plumbing the depth of the Mississippi is to a trip to New Orleans: they are only valuable at the instant in time they are taken, and only give you a sense of certainty at that moment (and possibly the next small portion of your journey). in other words, i would not go back more than 2 pages at any point in time. the situation 2 weeks ago was vastly different for Trump. he was at his high water mark of the campaign. now Clinton is. it is amazing how things can change in 2 weeks. |
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Aug 7, 2016 7:07:22 GMT -5
^^^^^ Which is why I really don't pay a lot of attention to polls in general until it's much closer to the actual vote being taken. Also, so many folks are so tired of being polled they will answer anything just to get rid of the poll taker.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 7, 2016 12:02:35 GMT -5
^^^^^ Which is why I really don't pay a lot of attention to polls in general until it's much closer to the actual vote being taken. Also, so many folks are so tired of being polled they will answer anything just to get rid of the poll taker. i think of polls the way i think of maps. they only tell you about where you are. however, if you are heading the opposite direction that you think, that is important to know. pollsters know how to screen out for most indifference and false answers. but this is why polls have error. there are two polls that are wildly inaccurate right now. that doesn't mean the rest are. in fact, i think the most recent IBD/TIPP poll is spot on. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 7, 2016 15:58:03 GMT -5
polls have been pretty steady for four days now. Clinton is +7%.
i think she might rise a tiny bit more, but clearly this is where this bounce stops for her. the big question is: will she lose it. most of the time, after conventions, candidates DO lose their bounce. also, given the size of this bounce, which was +8% for Clinton, it would make sense for her to lose some of it. it would not surprise me if she lost HALF of it. but Trump keeps saying and doing shit that makes him look really unstable, imo. now, this is from someone who thinks he is kinda a lose cannon already- so, i could hardly be considered unbiased on this stuff- but here is my point: i don't think people really pay attention until after the conventions. so, the stuff he says NOW is going to get him a lot more attention than the stuff he said before now.
this next week will be interesting. i think that Clinton will drift higher the first half, and lower the second half, and end up about where she is a week from now- which would be very good for her, with less than 3 months to go.
odds remain the same. Clinton 3:1 favourite.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2016 12:33:21 GMT -5
Clinton's numbers are now +7.5%. if you think that 1/2% doesn't change much, you would think wrong.
i am taking NH off the swing state list and adding IA. if this keeps up for Clinton, i am going to take FLORIDA off the swing state list, which basically means that Trump is out of the running. i can't imagine a scenario where he wins the election without Florida.
but for now, he is hanging by a thread.
but i am putting Clinton at 4:1 to win, as of today.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2016 19:04:14 GMT -5
one very surprising update today:
The Economist updated last week's poll. you might recall me mentioning it earlier in the thread (it was one that showed Clinton +3%). the new poll shows her +7, which is +4% in (8) days.
this doesn't change anything for Clinton- but it does smother one of (3) polls that had her less than 5% up (the other two are the LA Times, which has moved from even to +2 in the last couple of days, and the Reuters poll, which is due to update any day now).
however, it changes things for Trump slightly. his polling average is now below 40% for the first time since June. he is still 1.6% above his campaign low 38.3% on June 15th. Trump has lost 1% on Clinton in the last (3) days, after stabilizing over the last week. this is also his worst decline of the campaign- a full 6% from his peak.
for now, i will stick with what i said earlier, and say that this is likely a temporary blip for Clinton. but for now, she is up a surprising 8%, and has risen 9% since the DNC- a very healthy bounce.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Aug 9, 2016 19:15:14 GMT -5
I haven't really looked into it, but do you know why the LA Times seems to consistently have Trump closer than most others?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2016 19:21:51 GMT -5
The state polls are interesting right now. In looking at the battleground state averages on RCP, Clinton only needs to win the normal D states plus the states she is currently polling at +5 or greater to get above 270 (PA, MI, WI, VA, NH, CO). Trump needs to win all of the others, plus pull one of those 6 away from her to win.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2016 19:31:18 GMT -5
The state polls are interesting right now. In looking at the battleground state averages on RCP, Clinton only needs to win the normal D states plus the states she is currently polling at +5 or greater to get above 270 (PA, MI, WI, VA, NH, CO). Trump needs to win all of the others, plus pull one of those 6 away from her to win. yeah, like i say, Florida is teetering on the edge of unlikely for him right now, and he REALLY needs to win it. Clinton is currently winning PA by 9%, which seems insurmountable- but a month ago, it was much closer. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 9, 2016 19:37:32 GMT -5
I haven't really looked into it, but do you know why the LA Times seems to consistently have Trump closer than most others? i have dug around in that poll, and the only thing i can figure is that they are making some demographic assumptions that are favorable for him. if they are right, then they will become a go-to polling agency for a while. if not, they will be treated like a fringe poll. they are considered an A- rated pollster, but Marist, who is A+ rated, is a full 13% higher than them in the latest survey. i could say that one is wrong, but my money is on both of them being wrong. the number is probably right between them. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 10, 2016 19:01:47 GMT -5
Clinton had a lousy poll in the last day, as Bloomberg put her at +6. this is down from +12 in June, and is the first fairly negative poll she has had in a while. since it might be a harbinger of the regression that i mentioned earlier, i am backing down her odds of winning to 3:1.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 10, 2016 19:12:37 GMT -5
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Post by Opti on Aug 10, 2016 19:42:59 GMT -5
I can't tell if Trump got perhaps one fully true, or I'm just looking for some blue. Looks like Kasich and Jeb Bush did the best of the Republicans.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2016 20:53:58 GMT -5
I'm curious how they picked those "more than 50 statements"... If you pick them correctly you can make them say anything... I could even pick 50 and say "Hillary is 100% honest" It would probably take me a crapload of time to find 50 honest statements from her... but I'm sure she's said at least 50 since 2007. if she only says one statement a day that's at least 3,285 statements to pick from. What are the odds that there aren't at least 50 good, true ones in there? "I had a bowel movement today" is a true statement... if the person saying it has had one. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 10, 2016 21:03:13 GMT -5
I'm curious how they picked those "more than 50 statements"... If you pick them correctly you can make them say anything... I could even pick 50 and say "Hillary is 100% honest" It would probably take me a crapload of time to find 50 honest statements from her... but I'm sure she's said at least 50 since 2007. if she only says one statement a day that's at least 3,285 statements to pick from. What are the odds that there aren't at least 50 good, true ones in there? "I had a bowel movement today" is a true statement... if the person saying it has had one. i have no idea what criteria they use, but i am sure you can find out if you are interested enough. i think it is interesting that Jeb was rated more truthful than Sanders, among other curiosities. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2016 22:41:37 GMT -5
What's interesting to me is that Trump and Clinton are separated by such a wide margin... She lies just as much as he does has been my experience with things that I've heard from both of them.
That shows either bias from them or I'm really, really, REALLY lucky at hearing Clinton lie. Anyone wanna guess what the odds are that I've heard an inordinate amount of lies from her but missed an equally inordinate amount of truths?
I'm guessing it's pretty unlikely.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 10, 2016 22:54:13 GMT -5
Trump planning on pouring millions of dollars into American breasts.
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Post by tallguy on Aug 10, 2016 22:54:41 GMT -5
I'm guessing there is a lot of bias that you are not seeing.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2016 6:26:21 GMT -5
I'm guessing there is a lot of bias that you are not seeing. I think I'm seeing all the anti-Trump bias. I don't think I'm missing any. |
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Post by tallguy on Aug 11, 2016 8:33:19 GMT -5
Of course you don't.  And how can it be an anti-Trump bias to suggest that he lies more than anyone else? Not only do the numbers bear it out by a wide margin but it seems to be part of his strategy to make up new and more unbelievable whoppers pretty much every day. He apparently believes that any publicity is good publicity, and that he is controlling the news cycle. Unfortunately for him, he is either too short-sighted to see how much it is costing him with voters or worse, that he just doesn't care. And a final remark on the chart: I don't think it is particularly surprising that the worst "liars" are on the GOP side and the most "honest" are on the Democratic side. It is not necessarily a measure of them as individuals, but rather an indictment of how much nonsense their supporters will believe. If your supporters (or, target market) is predisposed to believe stupid sh**, give them stupid sh**. That seems to be the mantra.  |
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Aug 11, 2016 9:03:32 GMT -5
What's interesting to me is that Trump and Clinton are separated by such a wide margin... She lies just as much as he does has been my experience with things that I've heard from both of them. That shows either bias from them or I'm really, really, REALLY lucky at hearing Clinton lie. Anyone wanna guess what the odds are that I've heard an inordinate amount of lies from her but missed an equally inordinate amount of truths? I'm guessing it's pretty unlikely. I expect to see that margin increase as Trump continues to spout reckless, inflamatory rhetoric. And, no, she does not "lie as much as he does" by any means. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 11, 2016 11:34:57 GMT -5
I'm guessing there is a lot of bias that you are not seeing. I think I'm seeing all the anti-Trump bias. I don't think I'm missing any. if you can't imagine that it is the truth, that seems like a problem to me. |
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 11, 2016 11:36:43 GMT -5
What's interesting to me is that Trump and Clinton are separated by such a wide margin... She lies just as much as he does has been my experience with things that I've heard from both of them. That shows either bias from them or I'm really, really, REALLY lucky at hearing Clinton lie. Anyone wanna guess what the odds are that I've heard an inordinate amount of lies from her but missed an equally inordinate amount of truths? I'm guessing it's pretty unlikely. Possibly it's because Mrs Clinton's lies are less obvious and may not be identified as lies by most people, where as Trump lies in large and obvious ways (like Obama being the founder of ISIS).
At the same time, you might be one of the people who considers what Trump says 'jokes' and not 'lies.'
It's all in the perception.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 11, 2016 11:47:51 GMT -5
What's interesting to me is that Trump and Clinton are separated by such a wide margin... She lies just as much as he does has been my experience with things that I've heard from both of them. That shows either bias from them or I'm really, really, REALLY lucky at hearing Clinton lie. Anyone wanna guess what the odds are that I've heard an inordinate amount of lies from her but missed an equally inordinate amount of truths? I'm guessing it's pretty unlikely. Possibly it's because Mrs Clinton's lies are less obvious and may not be identified as lies by most people, where as Trump lies in large and obvious ways (like Obama being the founder of ISIS).
At the same time, you might be one of the people who considers what Trump says 'jokes' and not 'lies.'
It's all in the perception.
there is another possibility. Clinton tells FAR MORE half truths than Trump. if half truths drive you nuts, then Clinton MIGHT drive you more crazy than Trump does. at least when Trump lies, he tells blazers. he is like Bachmann in that: unapologetic, raging, fat lies that nobody can mistake for the truth. |
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 11, 2016 12:15:37 GMT -5
TRUMP BLASTS MEDIA FOR REPORTING THINGS HE SAYSBy Andy Borowitz , 08:16 A.M. NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report)—The Republican nominee Donald Trump tore into the media on Thursday for what he called their “extremely unfair practice” of reporting the things he says. “I’ll say something at a rally and I look out and see all these TV cameras taking every word down,” Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity. “No one in politics has ever been subjected to this kind of treatment.” “It’s unbelievable and, frankly, very unethical,” he added. At a rally in Florida, the candidate lashed out at a TV cameraman whom he caught in the act of recording his words for broadcasting purposes. “Look at him over there, picking up everything I’m saying, folks,” Trump shouted. “Get him out of here.” In his interview with Fox, Trump hinted that he might drop out of this fall’s televised Presidential debates if the media continues its practice of reporting the things he says. “I’ve always said that I would be willing to debate if I’m treated fairly,” Trump told Hannity. “But if the media keeps recording everything I say, word for word, and then playing it back so that everyone in the country hears exactly what I said, I would consider that very, very unfair.” TRUMP BLASTS MEDIA FOR REPORTING THINGS HE SAYS
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 11, 2016 12:21:00 GMT -5
this is how he will lose, imo. when Clinton just repeats what Trump says.
there is no need to illustrate how stupid and wrong he is. just repeat it.
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Aug 11, 2016 12:36:16 GMT -5
Doesn't the media record and report back everything any politician says? How else would their opponents get fodder for their own political ads. |
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Post by Opti on Aug 11, 2016 12:38:01 GMT -5
Doesn't the media record and report back everything any politician says? How else would their opponents get fodder for their own political ads. Its a take off on Trump's comment the "dishonest media" are twisting his words. Its humor. |
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Aug 11, 2016 12:48:26 GMT -5
this is how he will lose, imo. when Clinton just repeats what Trump says. there is no need to illustrate how stupid and wrong he is. just repeat it.  The most effective political ad I've seen shows clip after clip of Trump speaking - and the faces of children watching......... "On other campaigns, we would have to scrounge for crumbs,” says a senior Clinton adviser. “Here, it’s a fire hose. He can set himself on fire at breakfast, kill a nun at lunch and waterboard a puppy in the afternoon. And that doesn’t even get us to prime time.” |
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