General Election 2016: Clinton -vs- Trump

[Deleted]

Does anyone here watch Real Time with Bill Mahr?

He had an interesting analogy last night... only he got part of it WRONG.

His analogy was (paraphrased): "You are at the train station in L.A., and you have to get to a wedding in San Francisco. It's going to be a great wedding. There are two trains leaving the station... the faster one is going to San Diego and the slower one is going to San Francisco, which one should you get on? The one going to San Francisco (Hillary) or the one going to Hell... I mean San Diego (Trump)?"


The problem with his analogy was... the wedding is in LAS VEGAS!!!!! And neither train is going there!

[djAdvocate]

+5% bounce for Clinton in PPP:

www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/president-2016/

if this is consistent, she will be up 3-4% on the RCP poll of polls by mid-week.

[Jaguar]

Jul 31, 2016 18:55:59 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

+5% bounce for Clinton in PPP:

www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/president-2016/

if this is consistent, she will be up 3-4% on the RCP poll of polls by mid-week.

CNN has a +7 bounce for Clinton - 52% to 43% - www.cnn.com/2016/08/01/politics/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

[Deleted]

Do we have a thread exclusively for shitty things trump says? 

www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/08/01/ailes-trump-sexual-harassment-fox-news-women-gretchen-kelly-greta-news-column/87915454/

[Jaguar]

Holy Shit!!!!!

[djAdvocate]

Clinton is back +3%.  Trump has lead Clinton a total of (7) days in the last year.

it looks like Clinton still has some momentum.  several polling agencies still need to update, including the LA Times.

[djAdvocate]

Clinton's numbers are now her best in 3 months.  she leads Trump by 4.4% in RCP's poll of polls.

i am putting her odds of winning back to 2:1

[djAdvocate]

this is also a really bad tactic:

www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/08/02/trump_theres_something_phony_about_this_weeks_cnn_poll.html

he never questions the polls when they say what he wants them to say.

this is precisely the problem that Romney had.  he could NOT believe that people would want to vote for Obama.  so, he altered reality to suit his own personal biases.  when the eventual loss came, he looked as if he was in shock.

it will be amusing if/when Trump suffers the same fate.

edit: two more polls confirmed the CNN result within 1%, and the LA Times Poll is a "running average" over the last week.  it is now +2 Trump, down from +5.  a week from now, Clinton will be leading in that poll, as well.  what will Trump say then?  probably "there is something phony about ALL of the polls".  narcissists are so predictable.

[Wisconsin Beth]

Since he's already saying the election will be rigged, why shouldn't he assume the polls are rigged too?

[djAdvocate]

first, the good news for Clinton:

she is at a 3 month high in average polling @ 46.5%

next, the bad news for Clinton:

the latest Economist/YouGov survey has her DOWN 2% in the last week

if you're wondering how that combination could happen, it is because she continues to rise in the LA Times poll (6% in the last week).

[djAdvocate]

new poll out from Fox today, which Trump probably won't even comment on.

it is showing Clinton +10%.  it is her best result in the Fox poll since March (i expect this to become a common theme in my poll reporting, here), and her second best result of the year, according to Fox.

Clinton is now +5%, which is a full point better than i expected, and her biggest lead since June.

on the other side of the coin, Trump has lost 4% in (8) days, his worst stretch since June.

assuming that the FOX poll AND the Economist poll are accurate to 95%, Clinton is likely ahead by 7%.  that is fairly surprising for August, if it is, in fact, the case.  not devastating for Trump, but not good, if true.

[happyhoix]

Since polls lag, what do you think they will look like next week?

[djAdvocate]

Aug 3, 2016 18:30:55 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Since polls lag, what do you think they will look like next week?

it is tough to say.

Clinton is gaining rapidly right now- about 1% per day.  but clearly, that trend will stop.  i have no idea when.

i am honestly having a hard time imagining her up 7.  she has had trouble breaking 5, but here she is.

[MN-Investor]

Aug 3, 2016 20:16:21 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am honestly having a hard time imagining her up 7.  she has had trouble breaking 5, but here she is.

Well, Trump is doing his part to help out.

[weltschmerz]

US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump makes "you want to retch", French leader Francois Hollande said on Tuesday, as he added his voice to a barrage of scathing criticism of the White House hopeful.
"His excesses make you want to retch, even in the United States, especially when -- as was Donald Trump's case -- he speaks ill of a soldier, of the memory of a soldier," Hollande told journalists in Paris.

www.thelocal.fr/20160803/hollande-says-donald-trump-makes-you-want-to-retch

[Deleted]

Aug 4, 2016 4:32:13 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Speaking of foreign implications, we seek to "lead the world", and since WWII we more or less have.  Whether or not this is a good thing is certainly debatable.  However we do seek this, and we have the power to back it up. 

As such, we have all the world constantly looking both at us and to us.  We have those who wish us well and those who wish us ill.  However just by standing up and declaring that we are the anointed leader to follow we put ourselves in a place to be constantly judged and critiqued.  How we bear up under this scrutiny can either make our quest for leadership go easier or harder of course. 

Much of the world accepts our dollar as currency, accepts our role as business and security leader, and accepts our role in the UN, to name a few.  Their willingness to do so depends upon the core belief that the United States, no matter how imperfect we may be, is a nation of laws, and follows the law.   We have stable and steady governance.  (Of course part of it is raw military and economic power) 

If we elect a buffoon like DJ Trump we throw our credibility right out the window.  The rest of the world wonders, along with many of us, how we even managed to let such a specimen get so far in the process.  Let's shut him down.  Let him govern Trump Tower.

Hate to be the one to tell you this, but, we lost what little credibility we had left after who we elected 16 years ago (Bush), 8 years ago, when we compounded our election error with Obama.

[Deleted]

Pa, Michigan, nh updated with nice lead increases. Nc went down a little? Still Waiting for Iowa, Arizona, Florida, Ohio to update.  

[Tennesseer]

[djAdvocate]

Aug 4, 2016 7:15:19 GMT -5 oped said:

Pa, Michigan, nh updated with nice lead increases. Nc went down a little? Still Waiting for Iowa, Arizona, Florida, Ohio to update.  

yeah, i am noticing the trend in NC, which is good for Trump.  they seem to be ignoring the national trend.

i think, if you are a Trump supporter, Florida is the most worrisome.  if Trump loses FL, he loses.

[djAdvocate]

the good news for Clinton: her polling numbers are now the best she has had since APRIL.  the LA Times now has her +1%.
the good news for Trump: the bleeding seems to have stopped.  Reuters has Clinton down 1% over the last week.

we'll see where it goes from here, but it looks like Clinton has about "peaked" for this round.

edit: i am moving Clinton up to 7:3 to win, as of this week.  any word on the debates, yet?

[djAdvocate]

i am no longer watching PA carefully.  it doesn't seem "interesting" to me any more, and i suspect that it won't be a battleground state this fall.

there are FOUR states that are in the 60/40 range right now, and three are the same that were up for grabs in the last (2) cycles: Ohio, Florida, NC.  for some reason, NH is also close this cycle, so that is on the list, as well.

of these four, Clinton has the advantage in three.  NC is currently too close to call.  needless to say, it is hard to imagine Trump winning if he loses ANY of these states.  if she loses all four, she will lose, though.  so, really, the election comes down to these four states. 

i want to make an aside, here.  some people seem to imagine that one candidate or another will lose so badly that they will get swept, and i think that is nuts.  to take four examples: Hawaii, Maryland, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.

it is hard to imagine ANY scenario where Clinton loses Hawaii and Maryland.  she will probably win each by 25%+
it is hard to imagine ANY scenario where Trump loses Oklahoma and Wyoming.  he will probably win each by 25%+

so, we can dispense with the idea that either candidate will sweep all (50) states.  in fact, (400) EV is hard to imagine right now.

it is possible that it will be a squeaker, if things go badly for Clinton.  so far, she is pretty much catching every break, and has never really trailed in the meaningful sense of the term "trailed" (electoral votes).  she will probably do very poorly in the midwest, and very well in the NE and SW.  if things go perfectly for Clinton, she might win Georgia.  if things go perfectly for Trump, he might win PA.

that is how i see it today.......8/4/16
 

[kadee79]

I just happen to have CNN on tonight...they just put on the bottom of the screen...80% of non-whites prefer Clinton. That's a pretty good number.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 4, 2016 22:50:19 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

I just happen to have CNN on tonight...they just put on the bottom of the screen...80% of non-whites prefer Clinton. That's a pretty good number.

it is, until you compare voter turnout in whites and non-whites.  Democrats need a big turnout this year to take advantage of this.

according to Paul (and many others) they are going to get it.

[djAdvocate]

the Trump Freefall continues.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Trump is now flirting with an 8 week polling low, down 5.2% in (9) days*, and his worst drop since entering the race.

Clinton is now at a 3 month high both in her lead and polling- the best she has done since the early part of the primary season.

what Clinton needs to do from here is to not slack off and seal the deal.  her danger here is getting lax and letting things unravel.

what Trump needs to do is....i dunno.  being an asshole seems to have been the best thing for him so far, but it hasn't worked since the end of the DNC.  either he needs to dial it back, or go full bigoted jerk on us- not sure which.

in any case, this is the high water mark for Clinton.  because TIME is becoming a factor, i am raising her odds of winning to 3:1.

[djAdvocate]

incidentally, i didn't mention TWO polls in the last post that i consider at this point to be outliers, as they are BOTH more than 6% off Clinton's RCP average.  for those of you that think i am "cherry picking", i tend to not point out polling that is that far "out", whether it supports or contradicts my claims (one poll each, in this case).  if you are asking my opinion on those two polls, i think they are both off by about 6%, in opposite directions.  i am glad they are both part of the average, because if only one was, it would skew the results, which i think are approximately correct.

aside: Clinton is indeed ahead 7% today.  and yeah, i am really surprised by that (ref: post 606).  i think she peaks here, but a lot of that is up to Trump, since Clinton has done little to have earned this lead, other than not being Trump.

[movingforward]

what Trump needs to do is....i dunno. being an asshole seems to have been the best thing for him so far, but it hasn't worked since the end of the DNC. either he needs to dial it back, or go full bigoted jerk on us- not sure which.

LOL! I can't imagine he is going to win any MORE votes by being a bigoted jerk.  IMHO he has probably already won over all those supporting his qualities of being a bigoted asshole.  If he wants to win any NEW voters he is actually going to have to talk about the issues and have a REAL plan.  As of yet, I haven't heard him articulate a single achievable plan.  When I ask Trump supporters to explain to me what his plans are they don't have a freaking clue.  I even asked on this board if someone could explain his plan to bring manufacturing back to the US and no one has yet to respond.  My guess is because they found his plan as ridiculous and convoluted as I did but they don't care because well, he is The Donald.  He is going to "make America great again."  Whatever the hell that means.  Hillary is not my favorite person on the planet but at least when I look up her ideas/plans they make freaking sense. 

[Icelandic Woman]

Aug 5, 2016 13:27:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the Trump Freefall continues.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Trump is now flirting with an 8 week polling low, down 5.2% in (9) days*, and his worst drop since entering the race.

Clinton is now at a 3 month high both in her lead and polling- the best she has done since the early part of the primary season.

what Clinton needs to do from here is to not slack off and seal the deal.  her danger here is getting lax and letting things unravel.

what Trump needs to do is....i dunno.  being an asshole seems to have been the best thing for him so far, but it hasn't worked since the end of the DNC.  either he needs to dial it back, or go full bigoted jerk on us- not sure which.

in any case, this is the high water mark for Clinton.  because TIME is becoming a factor, i am raising her odds of winning to 3:1.

Trump's biggest opponent right now is Trump.
All Hillary has to do now is sit back and let the Trump train derail itself.
And when I say sit back I mean just run a normal campaign and don't involve herself in his idiocy.

[weltschmerz]

Aug 5, 2016 14:50:08 GMT -5 Icelandic Woman said:

Aug 5, 2016 13:27:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

the Trump Freefall continues.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Trump is now flirting with an 8 week polling low, down 5.2% in (9) days*, and his worst drop since entering the race.

Clinton is now at a 3 month high both in her lead and polling- the best she has done since the early part of the primary season.

what Clinton needs to do from here is to not slack off and seal the deal.  her danger here is getting lax and letting things unravel.

what Trump needs to do is....i dunno.  being an asshole seems to have been the best thing for him so far, but it hasn't worked since the end of the DNC.  either he needs to dial it back, or go full bigoted jerk on us- not sure which.

in any case, this is the high water mark for Clinton.  because TIME is becoming a factor, i am raising her odds of winning to 3:1.

Trump's biggest opponent right now is Trump.
All Hillary has to do now is sit back and let the Trump train derail itself.
And when I say sit back I mean just run a normal campaign and don't involve herself in his idiocy.

I can't wait for the debates. She's going to make mincemeat out of him.

[kadee79]

Just saw on the net (MSN) that a new poll only has Hillary ahead by 3 points.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 5, 2016 21:34:29 GMT -5 kadee79 said:

Just saw on the net (MSN) that a new poll only has Hillary ahead by 3 points.

the Economist poll also has her at +3.  it is on the outer fringe of what i think is likely right now.