General Election 2016: Clinton -vs- Trump

[djAdvocate]

i think Clinton loses SD tonight and takes everything else.

she has a lot of close contests, but that figures, given the closeness of this race.

people really like Sanders, but she is still going to win more delegates than him tonight, and way more than the majority of pledged delegates she needs to secure the nomination (2026).  she will probably end up with about 2200.

the drama is appealing to first time voters, but this contest probably ended in March.

now, we can all focus on the main event. 

[djAdvocate]

Jun 7, 2016 20:30:42 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Tonight just seems so anti-climatic for me.
I thought Trump would be the nominee after he knocked Jeb out of the race, even though I switched to Christie.
Hillary was handed the nomination a year ago, but she fumbled it the rest of the year, but is stumbling across the goal line tonight.

Trump since clinching the nomination has been trying to throw it all away.
Everything he accomplished, he is now trashing.

i think the assessment of Clinton is a bit ham fisted.  Clinton did precisely what she had to do.  she focused on the big contests and the superdelegates early.  she learned that from Obama, who did the same thing.  it is good strategy for monied Democrats with good connections.  she played it safe, and she won.

Trump was quite a bit braver.  he is used to beating the odds, so he went with his strengths.  good for him.

we now have two very different candidates: one very establishment, traditional, conservative Democrat, and one pretty wily, anti establishment Republican.  it will make for an interesting contest, and i am looking forward to it- not so much for the drama of it, but because it will create an interesting debate for this nation to have at this time of transition.

[Value Buy]

Right now she is winning South Dakota 54 to 46
She is winning New Mexico 53 to 47
North Dakota  she is losing by a ton, 64 to 26

[Value Buy]

I hope the pundits look at Trump's numbers tonight.
Did voters decide to not bother voting for him, or did they continue to vote for him after this week's events.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 7, 2016 20:38:05 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Right now she is winning South Dakota 54 to 46
She is winning New Mexico 53 to 47
North Dakota  she is losing by a ton, 64 to 26

yeah, she will get creamed in ND.

but here is the thing about this race: look at NJ! 

Clinton knows where to spend money.  and she knows how to win big, important contests.  how many states did she lose that had significant delegate counts?  ANY?  i can't think of a single one.

she basically walked away from places like Idaho, and that was super smart.  why?  because there is no way in fucking hell she is winning that state in the GE!  who cares if Sanders wins in the Dakotas.  she is going to get creamed there by Trump.  absolutely slaughtered.  she will lose by 30 points.

MONTANA, on the other hand, is ALMOST a swing state.  she had better win it.  it is THAT kind of state she needs to win.  losing there, and then trying to win in November is not good, strategically.

[Value Buy]

Jun 7, 2016 20:42:00 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 7, 2016 20:38:05 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Right now she is winning South Dakota 54 to 46
She is winning New Mexico 53 to 47
North Dakota  she is losing by a ton, 64 to 26

yeah, she will get creamed in ND.

but here is the thing about this race: look at NJ! 

Clinton knows where to spend money.  and she knows how to win big, important contests.  how many states did she lose that had significant delegate counts?  ANY?  i can't think of a single one.

she basically walked away from places like Idaho, and that was super smart.  why?  because there is no way in fucking hell she is winning that state in the GE!  who cares if Sanders wins in the Dakotas.  she is going to get creamed there by Trump.  absolutely slaughtered.  she will lose by 30 points.

MONTANA, on the other hand, is ALMOST a swing state.  she had better win it.  it is THAT kind of state she needs to win.  losing there, and then trying to win in November is not good, strategically.

Good point.
NJ is also another cosmopolitan state with minorities. This is her wheel house.
Never understood why blacks never caught onto him and his message.
I guess she has the decades of familiarity with blacks and they are simply comfortable with her.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 7, 2016 20:46:33 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jun 7, 2016 20:42:00 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

yeah, she will get creamed in ND.

but here is the thing about this race: look at NJ! 

Clinton knows where to spend money.  and she knows how to win big, important contests.  how many states did she lose that had significant delegate counts?  ANY?  i can't think of a single one.

she basically walked away from places like Idaho, and that was super smart.  why?  because there is no way in fucking hell she is winning that state in the GE!  who cares if Sanders wins in the Dakotas.  she is going to get creamed there by Trump.  absolutely slaughtered.  she will lose by 30 points.

MONTANA, on the other hand, is ALMOST a swing state.  she had better win it.  it is THAT kind of state she needs to win.  losing there, and then trying to win in November is not good, strategically.

Good point.
NJ is also another cosmopolitan state with minorities. This is her wheel house.
Never understood why blacks never caught onto him and his message.
I guess she has the decades of familiarity with blacks and they are simply comfortable with her.

candidly?  i really don't get it, either.  i don't want to sound like a dick or a bigot, but it almost seems like they are not really paying attention.  that it is some cuddly preoccupation with the name Clinton that is driving it.  i honestly don't know.

i can figure out why people like Trump.  i think Adam's analysis that Paul posted is spot on.  it is marketing 101.  but the thing is that even companies that have superior marketing sometimes lose at the product end.  does it give them an advantage?  SURE.  and you can see that advantage all through the primary.  he played GOP voters like a fiddle.  he basically told them nothing more than "i can do it, and everyone else sucks" and they voted for him.  it was really that simple.  but the thing that occurs to me is that that audience was predisposed to this.  they have been listening to hacks like Palin for years, and find her plausibly convincing.  so, they will.....give a lot of latitude to an aspecific candidate like Trump.  and MAYBE this will play well for him in the GE, as well- but he has a lot more resistance to overcome, there.  the biases he shows in the primary are a good match for Republican voters- but i don't believe those biases are widely shared.  and make no mistake about it- Clinton ALSO has biases- clearly visible ones.  and she does sound way headier than Trump, which will work against her.

this is a very interesting race.

[Tennesseer]

Jun 7, 2016 20:38:05 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Right now she is winning South Dakota 54 to 46
She is winning New Mexico 53 to 47
North Dakota  she is losing by a ton, 64 to 26

64 and 26 equals 90.

[chiver78]

Jun 7, 2016 20:23:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 7, 2016 20:17:14 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Well, it looks like we are coming to the end of the very long primary season tonight.
Will Hillary actually win California to finally stop Bernie?

I hope so.
Bernie fought a good fight. A fair fight.
But it is over now.
Time for Hillary and Donald to sharpen the knives for the final battle.

Unless Trump bows out this week, and leaves it for Cruz to do the final scene.

LOL!

not going to happen.

so, i think Clinton stands a very good chance of winning tonight.  i think it is unlikely that she will win by large margins, which is going to keep Bernie in the game. 

it is POSSIBLE that Sanders is just putting on his game face for purpose of his followers.  this crazy talk about "taking it to the convention" makes no sense.  Clinton is right about that fact.  he has no case to make.  he lost.  it is not about how many states you win.  it is about how many votes you get (at least on the Democratic side, which is all proportional).  Clinton collected about 56% of the vote to Sander's 44%.  if it were the general election, that kind of a margin of victory would ensure the victor probably 40+ states. 

it doesn't matter that Sanders MIGHT run better against Trump (i think it is debatable, actually).  Kasich would have run better against Clinton, but that did not stop Trump from winning.  so, let's just all pretend that Kasich and Sanders won and get on with it.  let the voters decide.  we now have two pretty stark choices, and that is healthy for elections.

he is totally putting on his game face for his followers. after tonight, he needs to work to unite the party that pretty much split in half between the two of them this primary season.

that said, let me repeat (the content, not verbatim) what I just posted on FB - I'm sitting here, about to watch the first woman to win a major party national ticket for President of the United States make a huge speech. I entertained the thought of running for President for a hot second in grade school, when I thought anything was possible....until I figured that it would never happen, after realizing that it never had before. I'm actually a little ill right now, because I don't think she's the best of the pool (the whole pool, not just D) and I feel like if she does end up pulling out the win in November, it's because she's the best candidate out there that ISN'T Trump.....and that sours the elation that a woman has finally won the election to the highest office in our land.

sorry to hijack the conversation. just had to get that out.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 7, 2016 21:01:49 GMT -5 chiver78 said:

Jun 7, 2016 20:23:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

LOL!

not going to happen.

so, i think Clinton stands a very good chance of winning tonight.  i think it is unlikely that she will win by large margins, which is going to keep Bernie in the game. 

it is POSSIBLE that Sanders is just putting on his game face for purpose of his followers.  this crazy talk about "taking it to the convention" makes no sense.  Clinton is right about that fact.  he has no case to make.  he lost.  it is not about how many states you win.  it is about how many votes you get (at least on the Democratic side, which is all proportional).  Clinton collected about 56% of the vote to Sander's 44%.  if it were the general election, that kind of a margin of victory would ensure the victor probably 40+ states. 

it doesn't matter that Sanders MIGHT run better against Trump (i think it is debatable, actually).  Kasich would have run better against Clinton, but that did not stop Trump from winning.  so, let's just all pretend that Kasich and Sanders won and get on with it.  let the voters decide.  we now have two pretty stark choices, and that is healthy for elections.

he is totally putting on his game face for his followers. after tonight, he needs to work to unite the party that pretty much split in half between the two of them this primary season.

that said, let me repeat (the content, not verbatim) what I just posted on FB - I'm sitting here, about to watch the first woman to win a major party national ticket for President of the United States make a huge speech. I entertained the thought of running for President for a hot second in grade school, when I thought anything was possible....until I figured that it would never happen, after realizing that it never had before. I'm actually a little ill right now, because I don't think she's the best of the pool (the whole pool, not just D) and I feel like if she does end up pulling out the win in November, it's because she's the best candidate out there that ISN'T Trump.....and that sours the elation that a woman has finally won the election to the highest office in our land.

sorry to hijack the conversation. just had to get that out.

i don't think she is all that bad, personally.  i don't think she is all that great, either.  kinda like her husband.

[TheHaitian]

Jun 7, 2016 21:01:49 GMT -5 chiver78 said:

Jun 7, 2016 20:23:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

LOL!

not going to happen.

so, i think Clinton stands a very good chance of winning tonight.  i think it is unlikely that she will win by large margins, which is going to keep Bernie in the game. 

it is POSSIBLE that Sanders is just putting on his game face for purpose of his followers.  this crazy talk about "taking it to the convention" makes no sense.  Clinton is right about that fact.  he has no case to make.  he lost.  it is not about how many states you win.  it is about how many votes you get (at least on the Democratic side, which is all proportional).  Clinton collected about 56% of the vote to Sander's 44%.  if it were the general election, that kind of a margin of victory would ensure the victor probably 40+ states. 

it doesn't matter that Sanders MIGHT run better against Trump (i think it is debatable, actually).  Kasich would have run better against Clinton, but that did not stop Trump from winning.  so, let's just all pretend that Kasich and Sanders won and get on with it.  let the voters decide.  we now have two pretty stark choices, and that is healthy for elections.

he is totally putting on his game face for his followers. after tonight, he needs to work to unite the party that pretty much split in half between the two of them this primary season.

that said, let me repeat (the content, not verbatim) what I just posted on FB - I'm sitting here, about to watch the first woman to win a major party national ticket for President of the United States make a huge speech. I entertained the thought of running for President for a hot second in grade school, when I thought anything was possible....until I figured that it would never happen, after realizing that it never had before. I'm actually a little ill right now, because I don't think she's the best of the pool (the whole pool, not just D) and I feel like if she does end up pulling out the win in November, it's because she's the best candidate out there that ISN'T Trump.....and that sours the elation that a woman has finally won the election to the highest office in our land.

sorry to hijack the conversation. just had to get that out.

It is politics... Just be happy a woman has a chance to win

[chiver78]

um, no. not even close to the right comment to make right there.

[Value Buy]

Jun 7, 2016 20:54:40 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Jun 7, 2016 20:38:05 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Right now she is winning South Dakota 54 to 46
She is winning New Mexico 53 to 47
North Dakota  she is losing by a ton, 64 to 26

64 and 26 equals 90.

I think I had the numbers correct.
I just saw it cross the screen again.
64.2 to 25.6 
Must have some votes that go undeclared?

[TheHaitian]

Jun 7, 2016 21:38:11 GMT -5 chiver78 said:

um, no. not even close to the right comment to make right there.

I hope you really don't think anyone in politics is clean...

For a woman to succeed in a man's world is no different for a black man to succeed in a white man world: you have to work twice has hard to get half as far!

She has earned every single battle scars she has gotten wether she played dirty or not. Don't hate the player, hate the game!

She wouldn't be getting half the shit she is getting if she was a white man that has done exactly the same. But as a woman she is expected to be delicate, show empathy, have a heart.

Please... She is a heartless bitch that did exactly what a heartless bitch needed to do to succeed to where she truly wanted to be, and that includes staying with her husband that cheated on her.

[chiver78]

Jun 7, 2016 21:44:24 GMT -5 TheHaitian said:

Jun 7, 2016 21:38:11 GMT -5 chiver78 said:

um, no. not even close to the right comment to make right there.

I hope you really don't think anyone in politics is clean...

For a woman to succeed in a man's world is no different for a black man to succeed in a white man world: you have to work twice has hard to get half as far!

She has earned every single battle scars she has gotten wether she played dirty or not. Don't hate the player, hate the game!

She wouldn't be getting half the shit she is getting if she was a white man that has done exactly the same. But as a woman she is expected to be delicate, show empathy, have a heart.

Please... She is a heartless bitch that did exactly what a heartless bitch needed to do to succeed to where she truly wanted to be, and that includes staying with her husband that cheated on her.

I don't disagree with any of that, but a Hillary win against Trump this year is just going to sour those ideals I created as a kid - when I honestly thought anything was possible if you worked hard enough...that it didn't matter where you came from or whether you had money.

I don't like the reminder that life isn't always what I was raised to believe it was.

[Value Buy]

Jun 7, 2016 21:01:49 GMT -5 chiver78 said:

Jun 7, 2016 20:23:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

LOL!

not going to happen.

so, i think Clinton stands a very good chance of winning tonight.  i think it is unlikely that she will win by large margins, which is going to keep Bernie in the game. 

it is POSSIBLE that Sanders is just putting on his game face for purpose of his followers.  this crazy talk about "taking it to the convention" makes no sense.  Clinton is right about that fact.  he has no case to make.  he lost.  it is not about how many states you win.  it is about how many votes you get (at least on the Democratic side, which is all proportional).  Clinton collected about 56% of the vote to Sander's 44%.  if it were the general election, that kind of a margin of victory would ensure the victor probably 40+ states. 

it doesn't matter that Sanders MIGHT run better against Trump (i think it is debatable, actually).  Kasich would have run better against Clinton, but that did not stop Trump from winning.  so, let's just all pretend that Kasich and Sanders won and get on with it.  let the voters decide.  we now have two pretty stark choices, and that is healthy for elections.

he is totally putting on his game face for his followers. after tonight, he needs to work to unite the party that pretty much split in half between the two of them this primary season.

that said, let me repeat (the content, not verbatim) what I just posted on FB - I'm sitting here, about to watch the first woman to win a major party national ticket for President of the United States make a huge speech. I entertained the thought of running for President for a hot second in grade school, when I thought anything was possible....until I figured that it would never happen, after realizing that it never had before. I'm actually a little ill right now, because I don't think she's the best of the pool (the whole pool, not just D) and I feel like if she does end up pulling out the win in November, it's because she's the best candidate out there that ISN'T Trump.....and that sours the elation that a woman has finally won the election to the highest office in our land.

sorry to hijack the conversation. just had to get that out.

Chiver, liked the post about thoughts as a child. you were correct.
As you grew older, you were incorrect. It will happen soon.
Maybe you will feel better when Warren does it
I won't, but you will
No comment on Hillary. My view is well known.

[Tennesseer]

Jun 7, 2016 21:43:40 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jun 7, 2016 20:54:40 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

64 and 26 equals 90.

I think I had the numbers correct.
I just saw it cross the screen again.
64.2 to 25.6 
Must have some votes that go undeclared?

I saw that on MSN's website. The first thing I thought was O'Mally? But no. In the Republican primaries, I see percents of votes for Cruz and Kasich, long gone from the race.

So who knows why the percentage is not equally 100% at this time.

[TheHaitian]

Jun 7, 2016 21:50:45 GMT -5 chiver78 said:

Jun 7, 2016 21:44:24 GMT -5 TheHaitian said:

I hope you really don't think anyone in politics is clean...

For a woman to succeed in a man's world is no different for a black man to succeed in a white man world: you have to work twice has hard to get half as far!

She has earned every single battle scars she has gotten wether she played dirty or not. Don't hate the player, hate the game!

She wouldn't be getting half the shit she is getting if she was a white man that has done exactly the same. But as a woman she is expected to be delicate, show empathy, have a heart.

Please... She is a heartless bitch that did exactly what a heartless bitch needed to do to succeed to where she truly wanted to be, and that includes staying with her husband that cheated on her.

I don't disagree with any of that, but a Hillary win against Trump this year is just going to sour those ideals I created as a kid - when I honestly thought anything was possible if you worked hard enough...that it didn't matter where you came from or whether you had money.

I don't like the reminder that life isn't always what I was raised to believe it was.

Welcome to being a grown up! And if you really want to be sick to your stomach: someone convicted of 3 counts of rape got 6 months jail!

To be white and rich!

[Value Buy]

Jun 7, 2016 21:53:49 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Jun 7, 2016 21:43:40 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

I think I had the numbers correct.
I just saw it cross the screen again.
64.2 to 25.6 
Must have some votes that go undeclared?

I saw that on MSN's website. The first thing I thought was O'Mally? But no. In the Republican primaries, I see percents of votes for Cruz and Kasich, long gone from the race.

So who knows why the percentage is not equally 100% at this time.

Trump is at 80% in New Jersey, so someone is on the ballot there. CNN showed Cruz and Kasich on the ballot there, same for South Dakota 
New Mexico 72.8 Cruz 16.9

[tallguy]

Jun 7, 2016 21:14:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Jun 7, 2016 21:01:49 GMT -5 chiver78 said:

he is totally putting on his game face for his followers. after tonight, he needs to work to unite the party that pretty much split in half between the two of them this primary season.

that said, let me repeat (the content, not verbatim) what I just posted on FB - I'm sitting here, about to watch the first woman to win a major party national ticket for President of the United States make a huge speech. I entertained the thought of running for President for a hot second in grade school, when I thought anything was possible....until I figured that it would never happen, after realizing that it never had before. I'm actually a little ill right now, because I don't think she's the best of the pool (the whole pool, not just D) and I feel like if she does end up pulling out the win in November, it's because she's the best candidate out there that ISN'T Trump.....and that sours the elation that a woman has finally won the election to the highest office in our land.

sorry to hijack the conversation. just had to get that out.

i don't think she is all that bad, personally.  i don't think she is all that great, either.  kinda like her husband.

Bill Clinton was a natural politician.  Hillary obviously is not.  Bill was a much warmer personality and much better at working with people.  I'm not sure whether he was really good with policy, but I don't think it was his major interest.  Hillary is less warm and less likable, so less effective on a personal level.  Everything I have heard or read though is that she loves policy work and will immerse herself in it.  If she is not the best at being out front and making the public "feel good," I'm okay with that.  I'd much rather have someone who takes the job seriously and makes rational decisions.  She will never be Bill, nor will she ever be Reagan (whose main assets were that he looked and sounded presidential and that people responded to him.)   I don't need a leader to make me feel good.  I want someone to lead the country in a thoughtful direction.  The chance that Donald Trump can be that person is near-zero.  

[Tennesseer]

Jun 7, 2016 21:57:50 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Jun 7, 2016 21:53:49 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

I saw that on MSN's website. The first thing I thought was O'Mally? But no. In the Republican primaries, I see percents of votes for Cruz and Kasich, long gone from the race.

So who knows why the percentage is not equally 100% at this time.

Trump is at 80% in New Jersey, so someone is on the ballot there. CNN showed Cruz and Kasich on the ballot there, same for South Dakota 
New Mexico 72.8 Cruz 16.9

Not sure what channel you are watching for results, but I am watchinh CNN. CNN is showing results for Trump, Cruz, and Kasich. Trump has 80%. Cruz got 26, 000 votes and Kadich got 55, 000 votes..

[chiver78]

Jun 7, 2016 21:55:14 GMT -5 TheHaitian said:

Jun 7, 2016 21:50:45 GMT -5 chiver78 said:

I don't disagree with any of that, but a Hillary win against Trump this year is just going to sour those ideals I created as a kid - when I honestly thought anything was possible if you worked hard enough...that it didn't matter where you came from or whether you had money.

I don't like the reminder that life isn't always what I was raised to believe it was.

Welcome to being a grown up! And if you really want to be sick to your stomach: someone convicted of 3 counts of rape got 6 months jail!

To be white and rich!

don't get me started on that case, please. a good friend of mine is another in the line of the wrongfully convicted b/c they weren't white and rich. we've already had a few arguments via text and FB, and I think I'm going to have to just censor myself around him for a little while.

[TheHaitian]

Jun 7, 2016 22:08:09 GMT -5 chiver78 said:

Jun 7, 2016 21:55:14 GMT -5 TheHaitian said:

Welcome to being a grown up! And if you really want to be sick to your stomach: someone convicted of 3 counts of rape got 6 months jail!

To be white and rich!

don't get me started on that case, please. a good friend of mine is another in the line of the wrongfully convicted b/c they weren't white and rich. we've already had a few arguments via text and FB, and I think I'm going to have to just censor myself around him for a little while.

Really? You don't see the sentencing going differently if he was let's say: black and from the hood?

You honestly don't see more like a 14 year sentence?

[chiver78]

Jun 7, 2016 22:22:08 GMT -5 TheHaitian said:

Jun 7, 2016 22:08:09 GMT -5 chiver78 said:

don't get me started on that case, please. a good friend of mine is another in the line of the wrongfully convicted b/c they weren't white and rich. we've already had a few arguments via text and FB, and I think I'm going to have to just censor myself around him for a little while.

Really? You don't see the sentencing going differently if he was let's say: black and from the hood?

You honestly don't see more like a 14 year sentence?

I absolutely do - my friend was (I hope...) playing devils advocate. said friend is white, but not rich, and he is admittedly unfamiliar with the coverage of the case. but in our arguments this last weekend, he was taking on the line of the defendant's testimony as covered in the news against the victim's statements once she sobered up. it wasn't even close to a civil discussion.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

The Left-Leaning PPP can't finagle a lead for Clinton in Florida.

Trump Leads Clinton In Crucial Swing State of Florida

The closest PPP could get is a 1 point Trump lead, with their consolation being the old, "It's well within the margin of frau...I mean error".



Of course the real headline, margin of error or not- is that Trump leads Clinton in the crucial swing state of Florida where, by the way, Trump won every single county in the primary except Miami-Dade which was won by Miami-Dade's favorite son of Cuban immigrants, Marco Rubio.

[djAdvocate]

Jun 7, 2016 23:56:34 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

The Left-Leaning PPP can't finagle a lead for Clinton in Florida.

Trump Leads Clinton In Crucial Swing State of Florida

The closest PPP could get is a 1 point Trump lead, with their consolation being the old, "It's well within the margin of frau...I mean error".



Of course the real headline, margin of error or not- is that Trump leads Clinton in the crucial swing state of Florida where, by the way, Trump won every single county in the primary except Miami-Dade which was won by Miami-Dade's favorite son of Cuban immigrants, Marco Rubio.

PPP has a 0.2% Republican bias

[djAdvocate]

so, i think i asked this a while back.  if i didn't, i was thinking it:

if Clinton CRUSHES Sanders in CA tonight, will he stop being such a weenie and bow out?

[tallguy]

Why would he, when he is buoyed by his huge win in North Dakota?  

[OldCoyote]

Where are the numbers?

[djAdvocate]

Jun 8, 2016 8:58:43 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

Where are the numbers?

Clinton kicked ass.  she got 1/2M more votes yesterday than Sanders, including 400k HERE:

graphics.latimes.com/election-2016-california-results/