tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jan 19, 2016 18:41:09 GMT -5
If we are going to risk having a Canadian as POTUS can't we all agree that Virgil would be the best choice? He knows exactly everything that is wrong with our country and I'm sure he could cook up a plan to fix it. No, you can have either a Canadian OR a conservative. You can't have both. Otherwise we'll get too many C-words in there. Particularly don't want any of those four-letter ones, like...Cruz.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jan 19, 2016 19:01:35 GMT -5
Can't he renounce his citizenship like Cruz did? Oh, this thought just came to me. If Cruz, having renounced his Canadian citizenship, is found to also not be an American citizen can he be deported for being an illegal stateless immigrant?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jan 19, 2016 19:15:24 GMT -5
Can't he renounce his citizenship like Cruz did? Oh, this thought just came to me. If Cruz, having renounced his Canadian citizenship, is found to also not be an American citizen can he be deported for being an illegal stateless immigrant? Where do you deport an illegal stateless person?
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jan 19, 2016 19:17:37 GMT -5
Gitmo? Afterall, he is Cuban.
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fishy999
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Post by fishy999 on Jan 19, 2016 23:32:27 GMT -5
Can't he renounce his citizenship like Cruz did? Oh, this thought just came to me. If Cruz, having renounced his Canadian citizenship, is found to also not be an American citizen can he be deported for being an illegal stateless immigrant? Where do you deport an illegal stateless person? We jam him in the worst airport we can find Remember The Terminal?
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 20, 2016 7:09:05 GMT -5
The Republican poll for the Presidential race in Florida has Trump at 48%, Cruz less than half that, and Rubio a sitting Senator at 11%, Bush, former Governor, 10%
What was the argument that Trump would top out at 25%?
48% is not bad. Not bad at all.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2016 11:18:26 GMT -5
The Republican poll for the Presidential race in Florida has Trump at 48%, Cruz less than half that, and Rubio a sitting Senator at 11%, Bush, former Governor, 10% What was the argument that Trump would top out at 25%? 48% is not bad. Not bad at all. no. the argument was not that he would top out at 25%. and it had nothing to do with state polls. nice try tho. VB- you seem to be going for a gotcha moment. and that is fine. go right ahead. but please don't forget that i have said at various times that i don't see how Trump could be stopped. so, you can be fair, and weigh all the comments out, or you can cherry pick them. but please remember something else that is not getting rubbed in right now: the certainty that some posters had last election that Romney would win, and the fact that they said it not just one time, but day after day for months. i haven't forgotten. have you?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2016 11:35:38 GMT -5
12 days before Iowa.
2016: Trump +1.1% 2012: Paul +3.5%- he came in 3rd 2008: Huck +5.2%- he won by 9%
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2016 11:58:07 GMT -5
the latest Trump national poll has him +19. but i think it is a better time to focus on the state polls. this is where they start getting accurate.
but to be clear: that national poll is very good news for Trump, and bad news for Cruz.
edit: the reason state polls matter more right now is that the early momentum will determine the viability of candidates, and SHAPE national opinion more than the opposite from this point forward. in other words, it doesn't matter how "committed" a voter in, say, California is, right now. once they see their candidate has no chance, their "commitment" will go elsewhere, or they will simply not vote.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 20, 2016 12:44:52 GMT -5
The Republican poll for the Presidential race in Florida has Trump at 48%, Cruz less than half that, and Rubio a sitting Senator at 11%, Bush, former Governor, 10% What was the argument that Trump would top out at 25%? 48% is not bad. Not bad at all. no. the argument was not that he would top out at 25%. and it had nothing to do with state polls. nice try tho. VB- you seem to be going for a gotcha moment. and that is fine. go right ahead. but please don't forget that i have said at various times that i don't see how Trump could be stopped. so, you can be fair, and weigh all the comments out, or you can cherry pick them. but please remember something else that is not getting rubbed in right now: the certainty that some posters had last election that Romney would win, and the fact that they said it not just one time, but day after day for months. i haven't forgotten. have you? dj, I was not referencing anyone on the boards or you in particular about the "glass ceiling" for Trump (or Carson) from the boards here. If you watch any cable news network shows there has been talk of Trump and Carson since last summer that their constituents are the topped out on their progress, that no one else will join their following. MSNBC, CNN, and even FOX were guilty of this. That was back at 20, 25, 30 percent favoritism level. Trump continues to build the lead and obviously has not topped out yet in the polls. Sorry I was not more specific. No gotcha moment was inferred, and in no way was I trying to get you. His rise is a fact, and I am not even a backer of him, as I have previously stated here. In any event, we will know a little more after quirky Iowa results are in.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2016 13:17:45 GMT -5
no. the argument was not that he would top out at 25%. and it had nothing to do with state polls. nice try tho. VB- you seem to be going for a gotcha moment. and that is fine. go right ahead. but please don't forget that i have said at various times that i don't see how Trump could be stopped. so, you can be fair, and weigh all the comments out, or you can cherry pick them. but please remember something else that is not getting rubbed in right now: the certainty that some posters had last election that Romney would win, and the fact that they said it not just one time, but day after day for months. i haven't forgotten. have you? dj, I was not referencing anyone on the boards or you in particular about the "glass ceiling" for Trump (or Carson) from the boards here. If you watch any cable news network shows there has been talk of Trump and Carson since last summer that their constituents are the topped out on their progress, that no one else will join their following. MSNBC, CNN, and even FOX were guilty of this. That was back at 20, 25, 30 percent favoritism level. Trump continues to build the lead and obviously has not topped out yet in the polls. Sorry I was not more specific. No gotcha moment was inferred, and in no way was I trying to get you. His rise is a fact, and I am not even a backer of him, as I have previously stated here. In any event, we will know a little more after quirky Iowa results are in. i think that some of us said 30-35%, and that was for NATIONAL polls. that is all. edit: he has yet to top 35% on average nationally. he might get 60% in some STATES. Bernie has 60% in NH in the latest poll. and i don't watch the news. you know that.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2016 14:38:08 GMT -5
i think Trump is extremely vulnerable to a "left flank attack". nobody has really challenged him that way yet, only "right flank" (making him out to be a neo-fascist).
the neofascist thing is not working. i think the reasons why are pretty obvious, but i will let others comment on them.
why i think the left flank attack WILL work is that it will piss off the majority of his supporters. when they find out he supported abortion rights including partial birth abortion (putting him left of Obama), that he supported a 25% surtax for the rich (putting him left of Obama), that he supported socialized medicine (putting him on par, or possibly left of Obama), etc, etc, etc, i doubt they will feel much love for his ephemeral basking in the sunshine of xenophobia.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jan 20, 2016 14:57:23 GMT -5
Once again...what are his conservative bona fides other than supporters "like him"?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2016 15:14:43 GMT -5
Once again...what are his conservative bona fides other than supporters "like him"? if you want to go pragmatic, name me ONE endorsement he has got.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 20, 2016 15:16:43 GMT -5
Once again...what are his conservative bona fides other than supporters "like him"? if you want to go pragmatic, name me ONE endorsement he has got. Well, he did get one endorsement today, but you are not going to think much of it
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jan 20, 2016 15:29:08 GMT -5
Trump shouldn't either but he'll take it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 20, 2016 15:36:22 GMT -5
if you want to go pragmatic, name me ONE endorsement he has got. Well, he did get one endorsement today, but you are not going to think much of it you mistook me. i meant from someone important.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Jan 21, 2016 2:56:18 GMT -5
if you want to go pragmatic, name me ONE endorsement he has got. Well, he did get one endorsement today, but you are not going to think much of it Colbert on The Late Show had a couple minutes of her speech for The Donald. Coherent thought is not her forte, and at times she seems barely literate. I could almost feel brain cells screaming in protest for being subjected to that. Unbelievable that there are people in this country who take her seriously about...anything.
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marvholly
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Post by marvholly on Jan 21, 2016 6:16:59 GMT -5
Palin is the EXACT reason I did NOT consider voting for McCann. Just a heartbeat scared me. NOT that I am even considering Trump or any of his cohorts. Too conservative for my taste on WAAAY too many issues and/or impossible dreamers.
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 21, 2016 8:08:15 GMT -5
Palin is the EXACT reason I did NOT consider voting for McCann. Just a heartbeat scared me. NOT that I am even considering Trump or any of his cohorts. Too conservative for my taste on WAAAY too many issues and/or impossible dreamers. Marv, can you tell me when was the last time you voted for a Republican candidate for President, or the Senate from your state? How about at the state level races, not at the local dog catcher level. Somehow, I think it might have been a few years ago. Like decades.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 21, 2016 13:00:22 GMT -5
the news in this race is largely unchanged. Trump and Cruz are still neck and neck in IA. Trump has widened his lead over Kasich in NH. the national polls show him going nowhere, but still with a huge lead over Cruz, who has fallen off slightly in the last couple of polls. the latest (5) national surveys show pretty much the same thing: Trump up by double digits, and Cruz hovering around 20%, with Rubio and Carson way back at around 10%. it would be interesting if someone dropped out- someone that actually has significant support- but with the LOSING campaigns awash in money, i don't think that is going to happen any time soon.
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marvholly
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Post by marvholly on Jan 22, 2016 6:33:14 GMT -5
Palin is the EXACT reason I did NOT consider voting for McCann. Just a heartbeat scared me. NOT that I am even considering Trump or any of his cohorts. Too conservative for my taste on WAAAY too many issues and/or impossible dreamers. Marv, can you tell me when was the last time you voted for a Republican candidate for President, or the Senate from your state? How about at the state level races, not at the local dog catcher level. Somehow, I think it might have been a few years ago. Like decades.
I have voted for Kirk everytime he has run for the US Senate. I voted for Raunner for IL gov in the last election (I believe Madigan needs to be reined in or better yet retire) which was under 1 y/ago. Not sure about other offices - just do NOT remember.
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 22, 2016 10:21:00 GMT -5
Marv, can you tell me when was the last time you voted for a Republican candidate for President, or the Senate from your state? How about at the state level races, not at the local dog catcher level. Somehow, I think it might have been a few years ago. Like decades.
I have voted for Kirk everytime he has run for the US Senate. I voted for Raunner for IL gov in the last election (I believe Madigan needs to be reined in or better yet retire) which was under 1 y/ago. Not sure about other offices - just do NOT remember.
Fair enough. I am impressed! For the record, I have voted for one of our two Senators, on the Democrat side in past years (Evan Bayh, also as Governor) And a Democratic House Representative in place for almost two decades now.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 22, 2016 16:30:28 GMT -5
Iowa.....
three new polls out. two show trump up, one shows cruz up, only one is outside polling error.
Trump +3 Cruz +15 Rubio +3 Carson +4
one of these four will win, obviously. but i really don't think Rubio and Carson have a chance. this one is between Trump and Cruz. but here is where i differ with the pundit class, many of whom are predicting Trump will win this. i still think Cruz is going to win it. not so much because of the polling numbers, which are too close to call.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 22, 2016 17:32:07 GMT -5
10 days before Iowa:
2012: Paul +3.5%, he came in 3rd in IA 2008: Huck +5.3%, he won in IA 2012 NATIONAL: Gingrich +3.4%, he dropped out 2008 NATIONAL: Giuliani +2.6%, he dropped out 2012 NH: Romney +13, he won 2008 NH: Romney +8, he lost by 6%
looking at this, i only see ONE winner on this list. and yeah. that means the polls are not telling us much. yet.
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 26, 2016 17:02:10 GMT -5
Here are the latest polls from Realclearpolitics. Note who is winning in the Republican race, and by how much. Threw one in for Bernie too. www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/Latest Polls 11k Shares Tuesday, January 26 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination ABC News/Wash Post Trump 37, Cruz 21, Rubio 11, Carson 7, Bush 5, Christie 4, Huckabee 2, Kasich 2, Fiorina 3, Paul 1, Santorum 0 Trump +16 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Quinnipiac Trump 31, Cruz 29, Rubio 13, Carson 7, Paul 5, Bush 4, Christie 3, Huckabee 2, Kasich 1, Fiorina 1, Santorum 0 Trump +2 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary Boston Herald/FPU Trump 33, Cruz 14, Kasich 12, Rubio 8, Bush 9, Christie 7, Fiorina 5, Paul 3, Carson 4, Huckabee 1, Santorum 0 Trump +19 New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Boston Herald/FPU Sanders 55, Clinton 39, O'Malley 2 Sanders +16 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary ARG Trump 31, Cruz 12, Kasich 17, Rubio 9, Bush 8, Christie 8, Fiorina 3, Paul 2, Carson 2, Huckabee 1, Santorum 1 Trump +14
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Post by marvholly on Jan 27, 2016 6:38:47 GMT -5
i was going to post this on Thur but day went into the proverbial handbasket.
I belong to a senior discussion group. Topic for 1/28 is to do a IA caucus type strw poll & justify your vote.
Demographics of my area (estimates after 50 years of living in my town):
economic slightly above avg income 15-20% retired 50-60% 2 income families 20-35% single income households a low % unemployed or on assorted public aid
education 98% high school grads 75% bachelors degreed 25% advanced/professional degrees
ethnic background 40% jewish 15% black 20% hispanic 25% asian
IMHO the group will lean highly democratic. Not sure which candidate I am personally for. I have thought from the get go Hillary should enjoy being a granmother-esp w/#2 on the way.
IF I had to vote Republican I think it would be Kaisich (OH gov). he has done well there & has exec mgmt experience. He just needs a good sec of state & foreign policy advisors.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 27, 2016 12:09:17 GMT -5
latest polling looks bad for Cruz and great for Trump in NH. Trump is odds on favourite to win NH now.
i still give Cruz 7:6 odds of winning Iowa. note: those are very narrow odds. he was doing much better a few weeks ago.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 27, 2016 16:21:20 GMT -5
historical roundup.
national 2008:
Giuliani +4% Huckabee +2% McCain +1%
national 2012:
Gingrich +2% Romney +13% Paul +6%
national 2016:
Trump +17 Cruz +8 Rubio +3
being the front runner has not been good a week before Iowa in the last two cycles. it would also be well to note that not only did none of the front runners win the primary, none of them won Iowa, either.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 27, 2016 16:23:06 GMT -5
note: based on new polling, i am rating Iowa as a "too close to call".
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