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Post by Value Buy on Jan 27, 2016 22:47:09 GMT -5
note: based on new polling, i am rating Iowa as a "too close to call". You are almost on the dark side. Iowa is now really a mess and too hard to call, based on today's political football with Fox News, and now Ted Cruze's super pac offering a 1.5 milllion dollar donation to charity for a one on one debate.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 27, 2016 23:43:17 GMT -5
note: based on new polling, i am rating Iowa as a "too close to call". You are almost on the dark side. Iowa is now really a mess and too hard to call, based on today's political football with Fox News, and now Ted Cruze's super pac offering a 1.5 milllion dollar donation to charity for a one on one debate. dude. i am not partisan when it comes to this stuff. the fact that i don't like Trump has nothing to do with what i say. if i think he will win, i will say so. and it is Cruz, not Cruze. and PAC, not pac.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 28, 2016 5:33:26 GMT -5
You are almost on the dark side. Iowa is now really a mess and too hard to call, based on today's political football with Fox News, and now Ted Cruze's super pac offering a 1.5 milllion dollar donation to charity for a one on one debate. dude. i am not partisan when it comes to this stuff. the fact that i don't like Trump has nothing to do with what i say. if i think he will win, i will say so. and it is Cruz, not Cruze. and PAC, not pac. Thanks for the spelling lesson. Big of you!
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 28, 2016 5:35:18 GMT -5
dude. i am not partisan when it comes to this stuff. the fact that i don't like Trump has nothing to do with what i say. if i think he will win, i will say so. and it is Cruz, not Cruze. and PAC, not pac. Thanks for the spelling lesson. Big of you! There is just no joking with you, is there? The dark side references the fact you finally realize what I have said all along. Trump wins.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 28, 2016 5:39:58 GMT -5
Ted Cruz is very similar to a Chevy Cruze. He is almost a good politician, similar to a Chevy Cruze actually being a good car. pac or PAC, I give a damn which useage I post.
Discuss the post, not the spelling. ty
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 28, 2016 11:25:32 GMT -5
Ted Cruz is very similar to a Chevy Cruze. He is almost a good politician, similar to a Chevy Cruze actually being a good car. pac or PAC, I give a damn which useage I post. Discuss the post, not the spelling. ty sorry i struck a raw nerve. i mentioned it out of kindness (and because it makes your posts hard to read) not to humiliate you. if you don't care what others think of you, bully for you.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 28, 2016 11:30:30 GMT -5
this is Iowa polling:
Trump +7 Cruz +13 Rubio +7
this last week has been unkind to Cruz, but it has been quite kind to Trump and Rubio. Trump is +7 this last week, Rubio +3. most of this is undecided vote swinging to the major candidates as the first primary approaches. there is only 3% undecided vote left in most of the surveys.
i doubt Rubio has a chance, but i think he will make a better showing than most people expect, and perhaps have some momentum for NH.
edit: i still rate Iowa as a tossup- which is kinda amazing 72 hours before the primary, right?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 28, 2016 11:32:54 GMT -5
The dark side references the fact you finally realize what I have said all along. all along? you started the Bush thread, not me.Trump wins. Mittmentum.
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Post by dondub on Jan 28, 2016 11:44:41 GMT -5
VB....it's usage. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/cool.png)
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Post by Value Buy on Jan 29, 2016 9:48:08 GMT -5
Hey, you also have to admit I posted it looked like it was all over for Jeb. Now based on recent polls, he is climbing in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Not only that pundits claim he was best last night at the debate!
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Jan 29, 2016 9:52:14 GMT -5
I didn't watch the debate. Is it true that on a question about repealing the ACA Cruz said government should not get between doctors and people? I find that am odd stance for any Republican right now.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 29, 2016 17:57:40 GMT -5
Trump +16 Cruz +11 Rubio +2 Carson +3
Trump's worst poll in (6) weeks (31%) hard to say what is going on here. for the moment, have to call it an outlier, since literally NO poll shows this.
the consistent result is that Cruz is rising again. this survey was his best result in a month.
Carson is also showing some life.
Rubio is at his lowest level since November 3rd
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Post by billisonboard on Jan 29, 2016 18:08:26 GMT -5
... Trump's worst poll in (6) weeks (31%) hard to say what is going on here. for the moment, have to call it an outlier, since literally NO poll shows this. ... FWIW, it is within the margin of error of the last IBD/TIPP Poll.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 29, 2016 18:12:25 GMT -5
the Iowa polls don't show much direction for Cruz or Trump, but Rubio is up about 3% in the last week. Trump leads, but it is inside of polling error.
in 2012, Romney lead by 1% (3) days before the caucuses and lost to Santorum, who was in 3rd. this was an 8% swing in (3) days. NOTE: the debate as to whether Santorum won in 2012 went on for months. for a while they said Romney won. then they said it was a tie. in the end, i think it was less than 100 votes that separated the two, but Santorum won, and went on to finish 2nd in the primaries behind Romney.
in 2008, Huckabee lead by 1% (3) days before the caucuses and won by 9% over Romney. again, an 8% swing.
synopsis: using this logic, the result could be anywhere from Trump winning by 11% or Cruz winning by 5%. this is still too close to call.
the NH polls are more interesting. Trump's latest numbers are the 2nd worst he has seen in the last 6 weeks (similar to the national poll), and Kasich has been in SECOND PLACE in two of the last three surveys. however, with Kasich trailing by 15% with less than 2 weeks to go, it would seem unlikely that he could catch Trump.
in 2012, Romney lead by a similar amount to what Trump leads by today, and won. in 2008, Romney lead by 6% and lost to McCain by 5% (which was an 11% swing in 2 weeks).
synopsis: Trump is still the favourite, here. but if he loses Iowa, he might lose in NH, too.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 29, 2016 18:13:09 GMT -5
... Trump's worst poll in (6) weeks (31%) hard to say what is going on here. for the moment, have to call it an outlier, since literally NO poll shows this. ... FWIW, it is within the margin of error of the last IBD/TIPP Poll. what is?
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Post by billisonboard on Jan 29, 2016 18:14:21 GMT -5
FWIW, it is within the margin of error of the last IBD/TIPP Poll. what is? 31%
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 29, 2016 18:16:34 GMT -5
31% is within the margin of error of what?. oh wait, i think i see what you mean. 31% is within the MOE of his polling average? if that is what you meant, yes. yes it is.
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Post by billisonboard on Jan 29, 2016 19:00:01 GMT -5
31% is within the margin of error of what?. oh wait, i think i see what you mean. 31% is within the MOE of his polling average? if that is what you meant, yes. yes it is. Actually when I said that "it is within the margin of error of the last IBD/TIPP Poll" what I meant was it is within the margin of error of the last IBD/TIPP Poll.
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Post by tallguy on Jan 31, 2016 0:58:00 GMT -5
No statistical or scientific validity to this at all, but.... 400 or so Republicans in Washington gathered for a conference. Held a straw poll at the conference.
Marco Rubio - 47% Ted Cruz - 19% John Kasich - 9% Rand Paul - 6.5% Ben Carson - 5%
Donald Trump - Far back in the pack and not listed in the tally.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 31, 2016 1:47:37 GMT -5
No statistical or scientific validity to this at all, but.... 400 or so Republicans in Washington gathered for a conference. Held a straw poll at the conference.
Marco Rubio - 47% Ted Cruz - 19% John Kasich - 9% Rand Paul - 6.5% Ben Carson - 5%
Donald Trump - Far back in the pack and not listed in the tally.
this is Trump's "hidden problem". or part of it. the other part is that he has a bunch of high school dropouts and first time voters that are his fan base. that is NOT a winning fan base. and yeah- he MIGHT win. but i am telling everyone who has ears to listen- his support is not nearly so ... relevant?....as many think.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 31, 2016 1:55:20 GMT -5
Trump is now a 7:6 favourite to win Iowa. don't like it, but there it is.
NOTE: he is still less than 50% likely to win, but he is 7:6 over Cruz. Rubio is 1:10, taking up the balance.
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Post by djAdvocate on Jan 31, 2016 1:58:11 GMT -5
NOTE: Rubio is putting in a nice final rally. he is now at 15%, down 13% on Trump, but solidly in 3rd, ahead of Carson by 6%.
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Post by marvholly on Feb 1, 2016 6:34:13 GMT -5
I suspect a large number of people will be up pretty late tonight. The whole process in IA takes quite a bit of time. Glad I am not working these days. Also glad I sm retire & don't have anything on my Tue am schedule.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 1, 2016 12:11:27 GMT -5
Trump is a 6:5 favourite to win Iowa today. Rubio is coming on strong from behind, but is a 1:7 longshot.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Feb 1, 2016 12:12:33 GMT -5
Will the snowstorm truly impact Iowa tonight?
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 1, 2016 12:15:58 GMT -5
Will the snowstorm truly impact Iowa tonight? sure. it tends to weed out the less committed voters.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 1, 2016 22:41:27 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 1, 2016 22:48:49 GMT -5
the Iowa polls don't show much direction for Cruz or Trump, but Rubio is up about 3% in the last week. Trump leads, but it is inside of polling error. in 2012, Romney lead by 1% (3) days before the caucuses and lost to Santorum, who was in 3rd. this was an 8% swing in (3) days. NOTE: the debate as to whether Santorum won in 2012 went on for months. for a while they said Romney won. then they said it was a tie. in the end, i think it was less than 100 votes that separated the two, but Santorum won, and went on to finish 2nd in the primaries behind Romney. in 2008, Huckabee lead by 1% (3) days before the caucuses and won by 9% over Romney. again, an 8% swing. synopsis: using this logic, the result could be anywhere from Trump winning by 11% or Cruz winning by 5%. this is still too close to call.the NH polls are more interesting. Trump's latest numbers are the 2nd worst he has seen in the last 6 weeks (similar to the national poll), and Kasich has been in SECOND PLACE in two of the last three surveys. however, with Kasich trailing by 15% with less than 2 weeks to go, it would seem unlikely that he could catch Trump. in 2012, Romney lead by a similar amount to what Trump leads by today, and won. in 2008, Romney lead by 6% and lost to McCain by 5% (which was an 11% swing in 2 weeks). synopsis: Trump is still the favourite, here. but if he loses Iowa, he might lose in NH, too. so, this was a few days ago, and Cruz came in at the very TOP of this range, meaning that virtually all of the undecided vote swung his way. i am going to review the NH situation with that in mind, and see what it tells me.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 1, 2016 22:53:33 GMT -5
so, i had a look at NH. assuming Trump loses 5% and Cruz picks up all of the undecided, he still loses by 10%.
now, of course, that analysis assumes that the same strength of support exists in Iowa as NH, which is totally false.
75% of NH voters make their mind up less than (7) days before the primary (regardless of what they say to pollsters).
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 1, 2016 22:58:16 GMT -5
prediction: Trump will spend the next week telling everyone how little Iowa matters (which is true). it will not sound good coming from him.
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