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Post by Value Buy on Apr 22, 2016 20:41:07 GMT -5
Yes we will. After Tuesday, you will finally come around Indiana should just wind up being a Trump momentum win, as by then everyone will be voting for the winner. Indiana doesn't vote Tuesday, right? ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/cool.png) Tuesday May 3rd, a week after the eastern state primaries. And now some info from real clear politics on the latest polls from Indiana and California for your reading enjoyment...... PollsElection 2016VideoWritersMore Polls ArrowQuick Poll/Map LinksAdvanced SearchFind Any Poll Try 'Iowa,' or 'Obama' Latest Polls 24.7k Shares Republican Polls | Democratic Polls | General Election Polls | Senate Polls | All 2016 Polls | Approval Polls Friday, April 22 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Indiana Republican Presidential Primary FOX News Trump 41, Cruz 33, Kasich 16 Trump +8 Indiana Democratic Presidential Primary FOX News Clinton 46, Sanders 42 Clinton +4 Indiana Republican Presidential Primary WTHR/Howey Politics Trump 37, Cruz 31, Kasich 22 Trump +6
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 22, 2016 20:43:54 GMT -5
Looks like Trump will win the 30 delegates for winning the state, and then add probably at least five congressional districts to add at least another 15 delegates.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 22, 2016 22:58:20 GMT -5
yeah- the new polling is very favorable to Trump.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 25, 2016 7:16:58 GMT -5
From realclear politics:
Monday, April 25
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Trump 51, Cruz 25, Kasich 22 Trump +26
Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Clinton 51, Sanders 41 Clinton +10
Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Trump 59, Kasich 25, Cruz 13 Trump +34
Connecticut Democratic Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Clinton 48, Sanders 46 Clinton +2
Rhode Island Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Trump 61, Kasich 23, Cruz 13 Trump +38
Rhode Island Democratic Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Clinton 45, Sanders 49 Sanders +4
Trump slightly above 50% in all three, and above 60% in Rhode Island
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 25, 2016 7:18:22 GMT -5
From realclear politics: Monday, April 25 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Trump 51, Cruz 25, Kasich 22 Trump +26 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Clinton 51, Sanders 41 Clinton +10 Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Trump 59, Kasich 25, Cruz 13 Trump +34 Connecticut Democratic Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Clinton 48, Sanders 46 Clinton +2 Rhode Island Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Trump 61, Kasich 23, Cruz 13 Trump +38 Rhode Island Democratic Presidential Primary PPP (D)* Clinton 45, Sanders 49 Sanders +4 Trump slightly above 50% in all three, and above 60% in Rhode Island
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 25, 2016 7:24:11 GMT -5
Kasich and Cruz have officially banded together to stop Trump.
With Kasich getting out of the Indiana primary, they think his voters will go to Cruz. I believe half of Kasich's voters will go to Trump, so Trump should do even better on the delegate count in Indiana. Cruz is dropping Oregon and New Mexico for Kasich voters. Do you see Cruz voters actually going to vote for Kasich? Maybe, but Kasich voters cannot overwhelmingly accept Cruz imo.
Edited, because I said Washington state, when it is actually New Mexico.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 25, 2016 8:25:25 GMT -5
I don't disagree. Kasich voters aren't Cruz voters. Their only hope is that they dislike Trump more than they dislike Cruz.
What a race. I think this is the first time in my voting history that the Republican primary in the state actually means something on the national level. I remember when George Wallace was running, and he created a stir, but he had no chance to garner the nomination.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 25, 2016 10:24:20 GMT -5
Kasich and Cruz have officially banded together to stop Trump. With Kasich getting out of the Indiana primary, they think his voters will go to Cruz. I believe half of Kasich's voters will go to Trump, so Trump should do even better on the delegate count in Indiana. Cruz is dropping Oregon and New Mexico for Kasich voters. Do you see Cruz voters actually going to vote for Kasich? Maybe, but Kasich voters cannot overwhelmingly accept Cruz imo. Edited, because I said Washington state, when it is actually New Mexico. what makes you think half of Kasich voters will go to Trump? demographically, they are quite different. if 2/3 of them go to Cruz, then Cruz wins.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 25, 2016 13:06:37 GMT -5
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 25, 2016 18:19:45 GMT -5
Substitute "Cruz" and you've got an equally effective Picard moment. In my mind, there is a significant difference between Trump and Cruz. I totally disagree with most everything that Cruz supports and appears to believe. But at least he has a mind that could govern - not taking the country where I want it to go but he could govern the nation. I don't believe that Trump has the mental discipline to govern the nation for 4 years.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2016 18:33:32 GMT -5
Substitute "Cruz" and you've got an equally effective Picard moment. In my mind, there is a significant difference between Trump and Cruz. I totally disagree with most everything that Cruz supports and appears to believe. But at least he has a mind that could govern - not taking the country where I want it to go but he could govern the nation. I don't believe that Trump has the mental discipline to govern the nation for 4 years. If he can't figure out the simple concept of "Separation of Church and State" (which Cruz has proven he can't) then I don't think I can agree that he "has a mind that could govern".
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 25, 2016 18:41:43 GMT -5
Kasich and Cruz have officially banded together to stop Trump. With Kasich getting out of the Indiana primary, they think his voters will go to Cruz. I believe half of Kasich's voters will go to Trump, so Trump should do even better on the delegate count in Indiana. Cruz is dropping Oregon and New Mexico for Kasich voters. Do you see Cruz voters actually going to vote for Kasich? Maybe, but Kasich voters cannot overwhelmingly accept Cruz imo. Edited, because I said Washington state, when it is actually New Mexico. what makes you think half of Kasich voters will go to Trump? demographically, they are quite different. if 2/3 of them go to Cruz, then Cruz wins. Surely you jest. Kasich is as mainstream rino as they come. More so than Bush. Kasich voters will accept trump over Cruz. I was being very conservative at half. It will be more like 80% and the other 20% will still vote for Kasich as originally planned. Cruz is not an option for them, and he was not very strong in Indiana. so much for being strong in neighboring states of Ohio......... Don't forget early voting has already been going on for what, three weeks, although Kasich voters are probably less likely to vote early as Cruz and Trump supporters do.
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Post by tallguy on Apr 25, 2016 18:56:00 GMT -5
In my mind, there is a significant difference between Trump and Cruz. I totally disagree with most everything that Cruz supports and appears to believe. But at least he has a mind that could govern - not taking the country where I want it to go but he could govern the nation. I don't believe that Trump has the mental discipline to govern the nation for 4 years. If he can't figure out the simple concept of "Separation of Church and State" (which Cruz has proven he can't) then I don't think I can agree that he "has a mind that could govern". I don't think Cruz has any interest in governing. He is interested in dictating. He has already demonstrated his belief that the functioning of government is subject to his own ego and ambition. He does not give a damn about anyone or anything other than himself and his extreme ideology. He will screw over everyone and everything that he feels in the way. Trump will be a disaster. Cruz will be much worse. At least Congress would likely contain the most ridiculous parts of a Trump administration, assuming Trump even believes in everything he says. If Cruz receives the imprimatur of the GOP mainstream, there will be little to stop us from going over the edge.
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Post by tallguy on Apr 25, 2016 19:46:10 GMT -5
I would vote for Nixon every single day until the end of time before I would cast a vote for either of those twits. And that would probably go for Kasich, Rubio, and Carson too!
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 25, 2016 20:01:29 GMT -5
Surely you jest. Kasich is as mainstream rino as they come. More so than Bush. Kasich voters will accept trump over Cruz. I was being very conservative at half. It will be more like 80% and the other 20% will still vote for Kasich as originally planned. Cruz is not an option for them, and he was not very strong in Indiana. so much for being strong in neighboring states of Ohio......... Don't forget early voting has already been going on for what, three weeks, although Kasich voters are probably less likely to vote early as Cruz and Trump supporters do. I'm gad to hear that report from the ground in Indiana. I don't see anything in common between Kasich and Cruz either, but it's good to read that the locals don't like Cruz. I am not reporting live from Indiana. Still in Florida. Waiting for the absentee ballot as I type. I do believe Trump will win Indiana, and take the majority of the congressional districts and probably clear 48 delegates or more. Disenfranchised Democrats (there are many that feel that way in Indiana) can cross over in the primary and Independents can vote either party if they want. This has been good for Trump in earlier open primary states
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 25, 2016 22:47:13 GMT -5
In my mind, there is a significant difference between Trump and Cruz. I totally disagree with most everything that Cruz supports and appears to believe. But at least he has a mind that could govern - not taking the country where I want it to go but he could govern the nation. I don't believe that Trump has the mental discipline to govern the nation for 4 years. If he can't figure out the simple concept of "Separation of Church and State" (which Cruz has proven he can't) then I don't think I can agree that he "has a mind that could govern". The government can and did for many years function with much more of a Christian bias than it is currently allowed to have. It functioned with laws outlawing sodomy and without marriage equality. Presidents governed, some better and some worse, with those conditions. Process, not product, is what I mean by able to govern. I look at Cruz's years as Solicitor General of Texas. He held that position for five years. While I disagree with most if not all that he did during those years, he did the job for five years. He could run the country for a four year term.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 25, 2016 23:26:09 GMT -5
what makes you think half of Kasich voters will go to Trump? demographically, they are quite different. if 2/3 of them go to Cruz, then Cruz wins. Surely you jest. Kasich is as mainstream rino as they come. More so than Bush. Kasich voters will accept trump over Cruz. I was being very conservative at half. It will be more like 80% and the other 20% will still vote for Kasich as originally planned. Cruz is not an option for them, and he was not very strong in Indiana. so much for being strong in neighboring states of Ohio......... Don't forget early voting has already been going on for what, three weeks, although Kasich voters are probably less likely to vote early as Cruz and Trump supporters do. my comment was based on exit polling. and why would i jest about a conditional statement?
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 25, 2016 23:28:08 GMT -5
If he can't figure out the simple concept of "Separation of Church and State" (which Cruz has proven he can't) then I don't think I can agree that he "has a mind that could govern". I don't think Cruz has any interest in governing. He is interested in dictating. He has already demonstrated his belief that the functioning of government is subject to his own ego and ambition. He does not give a damn about anyone or anything other than himself and his extreme ideology. He will screw over everyone and everything that he feels in the way. Trump will be a disaster. Cruz will be much worse. At least Congress would likely contain the most ridiculous parts of a Trump administration, assuming Trump even believes in everything he says. If Cruz receives the imprimatur of the GOP mainstream, there will be little to stop us from going over the edge. i can't say that i agree with any of this, but i don't strongly disagree, either.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 25, 2016 23:33:41 GMT -5
If he can't figure out the simple concept of "Separation of Church and State" (which Cruz has proven he can't) then I don't think I can agree that he "has a mind that could govern". I don't think Cruz has any interest in governing. He is interested in dictating. He has already demonstrated his belief that the functioning of government is subject to his own ego and ambition. He does not give a damn about anyone or anything other than himself and his extreme ideology. He will screw over everyone and everything that he feels in the way. Trump will be a disaster. Cruz will be much worse. At least Congress would likely contain the most ridiculous parts of a Trump administration, assuming Trump even believes in everything he says. If Cruz receives the imprimatur of the GOP mainstream, there will be little to stop us from going over the edge. I don't think that Cruz getting the nomination because the GOP mainstream doesn't want Trump will give him that much power over policy. Now getting the votes necessary to win election as president would be a different matter. Yes, he will push an extreme ideology but it would be an agenda endorsed by his election.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 25, 2016 23:34:40 GMT -5
Trump got another nice national poll today, and is back to +13 in the averages:
Trump 43 +13 Cruz 30 +9 Kasich 21
i think if Trump performs as expected tomorrow, it is over. he is trending very well, and he should have a sliver more than he needs to win the nomination outright. so, the ridiculous happened.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 26, 2016 8:16:01 GMT -5
Surely you jest. Kasich is as mainstream rino as they come. More so than Bush. Kasich voters will accept trump over Cruz. I was being very conservative at half. It will be more like 80% and the other 20% will still vote for Kasich as originally planned. Cruz is not an option for them, and he was not very strong in Indiana. so much for being strong in neighboring states of Ohio......... Don't forget early voting has already been going on for what, three weeks, although Kasich voters are probably less likely to vote early as Cruz and Trump supporters do. my comment was based on exit polling. and why would i jest about a conditional statement? What exit polling?
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Post by OldCoyote on Apr 26, 2016 9:34:17 GMT -5
Hosanna Heysanna sanna sanna hey, sanna hey sanna ho sanna........ You made me google this, that was a good one!
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 26, 2016 9:42:47 GMT -5
I hope it came up with JC Superstar? (Best Rock Opera, Evah )
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 26, 2016 9:50:24 GMT -5
my comment was based on exit polling. and why would i jest about a conditional statement? What exit polling? the exit polling from pretty much every contest. the last set i read was from NY.
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Post by happyhoix on Apr 26, 2016 9:59:30 GMT -5
If he can't figure out the simple concept of "Separation of Church and State" (which Cruz has proven he can't) then I don't think I can agree that he "has a mind that could govern". The government can and did for many years function with much more of a Christian bias than it is currently allowed to have. It functioned with laws outlawing sodomy and without marriage equality. Presidents governed, some better and some worse, with those conditions. Process, not product, is what I mean by able to govern. I look at Cruz's years as Solicitor General of Texas. He held that position for five years. While I disagree with most if not all that he did during those years, he did the job for five years. He could run the country for a four year term. My concern with Cruz would be the issues he would spend his time trying to govern while in office. He would waste a lot of time and political capital on social issues like abortion restrictions and abolishing gay marriage - this would cause further division within an already severely divided electorate and wouldn't address what I think are the serious issues (and should be the primary focus) of any POTUS - tax reform, budget reduction, national security, etc. Cruz has proven he would rather shut down government than work out any compromise, so I fear four more years of stagnant government and national acrimony.
With Trump, I figure he'll spend his time working on issues that will create a better business/tax climate for himself and his cronies. He won't do a thing about immigration (he benefits too much from their cheap labor) and he'll blame the inaction on the democrats. He'll attempt to ram a few of his pet projects through Congress, Congress will tell him to go blow, Trump will have tantrums, and we'll have four more years of stagnant government and national acrimony. With Trump, though, I have the additional fear that he'll get possession of the nuclear codes and decide to bomb someone just to prove little fingers don't mean little everything.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 26, 2016 11:12:05 GMT -5
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 26, 2016 11:15:03 GMT -5
the exit polling from pretty much every contest. the last set i read was from NY. Okay. You mean the state where he won 90 of 95 delegates? And you believe Republicans will vote for Hillary before him too. Tonight Cruz is destroyed. May 3rd is just the icing on the cake. California will have to put Trump over the top, but it looks like he will not have to do it in a blowout there to win the nomination outright.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 26, 2016 11:33:36 GMT -5
the exit polling from pretty much every contest. the last set i read was from NY. Okay. You mean the state where he won 90 of 95 delegates? And you believe Republicans will vote for Hillary before him too. Tonight Cruz is destroyed. May 3rd is just the icing on the cake. California will have to put Trump over the top, but it looks like he will not have to do it in a blowout there to win the nomination outright. take your pick. i think you would be hard pressed to find an exit poll that showed that Kasich voters were likely to go for Trump. right now i have Cruz 5:4 to win Indiana. if Trump kills him today, that will probably change. edit: if Cruz wins Indiana, i still think that a brokered convention is more likely than not.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 26, 2016 11:45:01 GMT -5
note: i think that Kasich should suspend his campaign after today, and let Cruz battle Trump the rest of the way. if he does that, and does NOT drop out, he might still have a chance at the convention.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 26, 2016 12:45:22 GMT -5
Interesting select group to be surveying. The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online April 18 through April 24, 2016 among a national sample of 10,707 adults aged 18 and over, including 9,405 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-trump-reaches-50-percent-support-nationally-first-time-n562061 Wonder how it translate to the general voting public.
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