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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 19:03:04 GMT -5
This year, it looks like NBC/ WSJ polls have been the outlier polls with bad numbers. one of the posters here criticized FOX earlier, accusing them of bias for being a "Trump Hater". was that you? ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/angel2.png)
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 19:14:16 GMT -5
This year, it looks like NBC/ WSJ polls have been the outlier polls with bad numbers. one of the posters here criticized FOX earlier, accusing them of bias for being a "Trump Hater". was that you? ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/angel2.png) No.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 19:15:14 GMT -5
without looking, i think it is at least 8 points off the nearest RV poll in the last month. right or wrong? Why compare it to a RV poll? It isn't one.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 19:17:00 GMT -5
one of the posters here criticized FOX earlier, accusing them of bias for being a "Trump Hater". was that you? ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/angel2.png) No. i was asking VB.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 19:18:49 GMT -5
without looking, i think it is at least 8 points off the nearest RV poll in the last month. right or wrong? Why compare it to a RV poll? It isn't one. fine. it is at least 5 points off every other poll in the last month, which is outside of polling error, right?
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 19:22:20 GMT -5
Whoops ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/shucks2.png)
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 19:30:23 GMT -5
Why compare it to a RV poll? It isn't one. fine. it is at least 5 points off every other poll in the last month, which is outside of polling error, right? Actually, it isn't at least 5 points off but it does have a polling error of only4.5%.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 19, 2016 20:04:09 GMT -5
I tried copying post 1018 to respond to dj but it comes up mostly blank.
Here goes.
I do not think I called Fox a Trump hater. I might have.......cannot remember. The way I remember, is I stated several times on threads that Fox did not back Trump and did not like him. It was obvious from the debates and some of the talking heads on their nightly shows that they tried to take him down. Fox polls were basically on target in their polling.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 20:43:14 GMT -5
I tried copying post 1018 to respond to dj but it comes up mostly blank. Here goes. I do not think I called Fox a Trump hater. I might have.......cannot remember. The way I remember, is I stated several times on threads that Fox did not back Trump and did not like him. It was obvious from the debates and some of the talking heads on their nightly shows that they tried to take him down. Fox polls were basically on target in their polling. fair enough.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 20:45:12 GMT -5
fine. it is at least 5 points off every other poll in the last month, which is outside of polling error, right? Actually, it isn't at least 5 points off but it does have a polling error of only4.5%. oh, darn. there were a bunch of good polls for Trump on March 20th. ok, i will repeat the claim tomorrow, and see if it sticks. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/grin.png)
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 23:39:44 GMT -5
Actually, it isn't at least 5 points off but it does have a polling error of only4.5%. oh, darn. there were a bunch of good polls for Trump on March 20th. ok, i will repeat the claim tomorrow, and see if it sticks. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/grin.png) So here are the last three poll results on RCP: Trump Cruz Kasich NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13 Margin of error +/-: NBC 5.6%, Fox 4.5%, CBS 6% So here is what we have: Trump Cruz Kasich NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 34.4-45.6 29.4-40.6 18.4-29.6 Trump -6.2-+15.8 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 40.5-49.5 22.5-31.5 20.5-29.5 Trump +9-+27.0 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 36-48 23-35 12-24 Trump +1-+25 Commmon ground: 40.5-45.6 29.4-31.5 20.5-24 Trump +9-+15.8 So taking into account the margins of error on the three latest polls, you see that there is common ground for all three candidates in the three polls. Therefore, none of the polls are outliers EDIT: Let's see if the data will line up.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 23:48:03 GMT -5
oh, darn. there were a bunch of good polls for Trump on March 20th. ok, i will repeat the claim tomorrow, and see if it sticks. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/grin.png) So here are the last three poll results on RCP: Trump Cruz Kasich NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13 Margin of error +/-: NBC 5.6%, Fox 4.5%, CBS 6% So here is what we have: Trump Cruz Kasich NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 34.4-45.6 29.4-40.6 18.4-29.6 Trump -6.2-+15.8 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 40.5-49.5 22.5-31.5 20.5-29.5 Trump +9-+27.0 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 36-48 23-35 12-24 Trump +1-+25 Commmon ground: 40.5-45.6 29.4-31.5 20.5-24 Trump +9-+15.8 So taking into account the margins of error on the three latest polls, you see that there is common ground for all three candidates in the three polls. Therefore, none of the polls are outliers if you are only counting (3) polls, sure. but that is not what RCP did, nor is it what i did. RCP averaged the last SIX polls. i specifically said "the last month", which is the last (10) polls. if you assume, as i did, that the MOE is approximately 6% (i think that is slightly conservative, but the math is complicated), that gives a range of 3% to 15%, which fits all of the polls except one: FOX. therefore FOX is the only outlier, using RCP's criteria. what i generally do is throw out the high and the low poll and average the rest when i am trying to figure out what is going on. if you do that, Trumps numbers get even WORSE. but like i say, you might be right. Trump might be rallying. he might be heading north of 50%. he might sweep next week and win the nomination before the convention. and he might not.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 23:49:33 GMT -5
i ALWAYS watch for new data, bills. if the new data confirms the FOX and CBS poll, i will FOLLOW it. but RIGHT NOW, the +18% looks like an outlier to me.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 20, 2016 0:01:16 GMT -5
So here are the last three poll results on RCP: Trump Cruz Kasich NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13 Margin of error +/-: NBC 5.6%, Fox 4.5%, CBS 6% So here is what we have: Trump Cruz Kasich NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 34.4-45.6 29.4-40.6 18.4-29.6 Trump -6.2-+15.8 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 40.5-49.5 22.5-31.5 20.5-29.5 Trump +9-+27.0 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 36-48 23-35 12-24 Trump +1-+25 Commmon ground: 40.5-45.6 29.4-31.5 20.5-24 Trump +9-+15.8 So taking into account the margins of error on the three latest polls, you see that there is common ground for all three candidates in the three polls. Therefore, none of the polls are outliers if you are only counting (3) polls, sure. but that is not what RCP did, nor is it what i did. RCP averaged the last SIX polls. i specifically said "the last month", which is the last (10) polls. if you assume, as i did, that the MOE is approximately 6% (i think that is slightly conservative, but the math is complicated), that gives a range of 3% to 15%, which fits all of the polls except one: FOX. therefore FOX is the only outlier, using RCP's criteria. what i generally do is throw out the high and the low poll and average the rest when i am trying to figure out what is going on. if you do that, Trumps numbers get even WORSE. but like i say, you might be right. Trump might be rallying. he might be heading north of 50%. he might sweep next week and win the nomination before the convention. and he might not. Okay, so here is the line from RCP with their averages: RCP Average 3/28 - 4/14 -- 40.3 31.3 21.5 Trump +9.0 Here is the Fox data: FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 40.5-49.5 22.5-31.5 20.5-29.5 Trump +9-+27.0 The Fox number does fall .2% outside of the RCP average. One of the reasons is because RCP is using in their averaging two polls with low Trump numbers which polled RV instead of LV. As you indicated earlier, those polls are probably less accurate.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 20, 2016 0:12:00 GMT -5
... RCP averaged the last SIX polls. i specifically said "the last month", which is the last (10) polls. if you assume, as i did, that the MOE is approximately 6% (i think that is slightly conservative, but the math is complicated), that gives a range of 3% to 15%, which fits all of the polls except one: FOX. ... Here is specifically what you said: Why compare it to a RV poll? It isn't one. fine. it is at least 5 points off every other poll in the last month, which is outside of polling error, right? So I picked a couple of the "every other" to compare. Those didn't fit your criteria so you are wrong that "every other" ... Why do you even attempt to figure MOE? I went to each poll and read what they calculated as the MOE. EDIT: took out what you would likely see as a personal attack.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 20, 2016 7:45:05 GMT -5
... but like i say, you might be right. Trump might be rallying. he might be heading north of 50%. he might sweep next week and win the nomination before the convention. and he might not. I am making no such claim. I am simply looking at data from the latest three polls and showing they all report the same results when you take into account margin of error. I understand that RCP does an average thing. One problem with that is they average together polls that draw from different universes, RV and LV. Another issue is they use distinct numbers which are actually a range to come up with a distinct number which should actually be a range. As I indicated before, I find polling itself to be interesting. I know that there is a nominating process taking place and that is the subject matter for these national polls we are looking at. But it isn't really relevant to a technical analysis of the polling data itself.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 20, 2016 10:07:47 GMT -5
if you are only counting (3) polls, sure. but that is not what RCP did, nor is it what i did. RCP averaged the last SIX polls. i specifically said "the last month", which is the last (10) polls. if you assume, as i did, that the MOE is approximately 6% (i think that is slightly conservative, but the math is complicated), that gives a range of 3% to 15%, which fits all of the polls except one: FOX. therefore FOX is the only outlier, using RCP's criteria. what i generally do is throw out the high and the low poll and average the rest when i am trying to figure out what is going on. if you do that, Trumps numbers get even WORSE. but like i say, you might be right. Trump might be rallying. he might be heading north of 50%. he might sweep next week and win the nomination before the convention. and he might not. Okay, so here is the line from RCP with their averages: RCP Average 3/28 - 4/14 -- 40.3 31.3 21.5 Trump +9.0 Here is the Fox data: FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 40.5-49.5 22.5-31.5 20.5-29.5 Trump +9-+27.0 The Fox number does fall .2% outside of the RCP average. One of the reasons is because RCP is using in their averaging two polls with low Trump numbers which polled RV instead of LV. As you indicated earlier, those polls are probably less accurate. even though you are still using a slightly different methodology than me (and possibly more accurate- i would have to think about it for a while), i think we are generally in agreement, here.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 20, 2016 10:10:40 GMT -5
... but like i say, you might be right. Trump might be rallying. he might be heading north of 50%. he might sweep next week and win the nomination before the convention. and he might not. I am making no such claim. I am simply looking at data from the latest three polls and showing they all report the same results when you take into account margin of error. I understand that RCP does an average thing. One problem with that is they average together polls that draw from different universes, RV and LV. Another issue is they use distinct numbers which are actually a range to come up with a distinct number which should actually be a range. As I indicated before, I find polling itself to be interesting. I know that there is a nominating process taking place and that is the subject matter for these national polls we are looking at. But it isn't really relevant to a technical analysis of the polling data itself. sorry, i meant FOX more than i meant "you". there is actually a way of weighting the polls relative to each other to determine error. the aggregated error is actually smaller than the average poll because the sample size grows. but it does not get smaller by the proportion that you would expect in the absolute sense due to the uncertainties in methodology. and i am completely with you on the polling, bills. i find it fascinating. obviously.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 20, 2016 10:24:20 GMT -5
i just reviewed Trumps delegate numbers. he needs to win about 140 of 172 next week to catch up, and he MIGHT JUST DO IT. polling shows him way ahead in most states, and he might just clean up.
he is also pulling ahead in CA, which would be the end of Cruz's insurgency.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 20, 2016 10:46:10 GMT -5
... there is actually a way of weighting the polls relative to each other to determine error. the aggregated error is actually smaller than the average poll because the sample size grows. but it does not get smaller by the proportion that you would expect in the absolute sense due to the uncertainties in methodology. ... ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/thumbsup.png) Yes, my simple "common ground" does not take into account those differences in each individual poll but it is likely a closer look at reality than just averaging the distinct numbers of each poll.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 20, 2016 10:50:08 GMT -5
... there is actually a way of weighting the polls relative to each other to determine error. the aggregated error is actually smaller than the average poll because the sample size grows. but it does not get smaller by the proportion that you would expect in the absolute sense due to the uncertainties in methodology. ... ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/thumbsup.png) Yes, my simple "common ground" does not take into account those differences in each individual poll but it is likely a closer look at reality than just averaging the distinct numbers of each poll. i have gone back and forth on the idea of averaging polls. but Nate Silver convinced me that it is methodologically sound. i agree that there are LOTS of internal conflicts in polls that are NOT resolved by this method, but it does have the advantage of smoothing the edges off some very disparate polling (and it helps analyze TRENDS, which is what interests me).
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 20, 2016 21:42:25 GMT -5
i just reviewed Trumps delegate numbers. he needs to win about 140 of 172 next week to catch up, and he MIGHT JUST DO IT. polling shows him way ahead in most states, and he might just clean up. he is also pulling ahead in CA, which would be the end of Cruz's insurgency. Pennsylvania is the sleeper. Only something like 14 delegates for winning the state, and 55 delegates elected with no affiliation to a candidate. What the heck is this? Another state that ignores their voters?
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 20, 2016 21:45:21 GMT -5
I have to admit I underestimated Trump's win in NY state. I said he would get 85 delegates. I am shocked that there was only one district (includes Manhatten) that he did not win outright. I always believed Kasich would somehow get enough votes in a few districts to split the tree votes.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 20, 2016 21:53:20 GMT -5
I have to admit I underestimated Trump's win in NY state. I said he would get 85 delegates. I am shocked that there was only one district (includes Manhatten) that he did not win outright. I always believed Kasich would somehow get enough votes in a few districts to split the tree votes. the polling has looked bad for everyone OTHER than Trump for a long time. and before Cruz and Kasich complain that "if it were just one of us, it would be different", it would have been WORSE, imo.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 20, 2016 22:05:07 GMT -5
We overnighted our form to get our Indiana primary ballot today. The county we reside in will mail the ballot the day after receiving the request, and then we will overnight it back to Indiana so we beat the deadline. I thought we would be home by the primary, but unfortunately, for certain reasons we cannot get back by then, so we will cast absentee ballots. Indiana does have an open primary. If you want to switch party selection, you simply check the Party ballot requested (Democratic party or Republican party) sentence that includes or whom I intend to vote for in the next general election .so it looks like Independents and Democrats who are not feeling the Bern, can vote in the Republican primary. This should bode well for Trump, if earlier primary voting in open states follow suit here. If Trump does well in the east next Tuesday, I imagine the momentum will follow through to Indiana May 3rd. Everyone loves a winner We live in the upper left hand corner of the state. I imagine Cruz might take our Congressional area. Lake County will probably go Trump. Not meany Republicans there, but lots of Illinois transplants that might go Trump. Porter county could go Trump or Cruz, 55% Republican county, but might give Cruz enough votes to go with Laporte to win the district. Laporte county will go Cruz. They have enough crazies their to back him. Primarily Democrat, but enough crazy Republicans to back Cruz
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 20, 2016 22:09:01 GMT -5
i think the only state that matters right now is PA. after that, CA will matter, but not if Trump wins PA. i think whoever wins PA will win CA. if Indiana votes for Cruz, but PA doesn't, Trump is going to win the nomination, imo.
edit: i should add that i really hoped Kasich would do much better in NY, and then win PA. Kasich needed to keep Trump from getting 50%, which means that he had to take 10% away from him. didn't happen.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 21, 2016 10:42:36 GMT -5
i think the only state that matters right now is PA. after that, CA will matter, but not if Trump wins PA. i think whoever wins PA will win CA. if Indiana votes for Cruz, but PA doesn't, Trump is going to win the nomination, imo. edit: i should add that i really hoped Kasich would do much better in NY, and then win PA. Kasich needed to keep Trump from getting 50%, which means that he had to take 10% away from him. didn't happen. According to CNN, FOX, AND MSNBC, Indiana is the state that matters. here is why, Pennsylvania has about 14 delegates (forget the real number) that go to the winner of the state primary. It has 54 unbounded delegates, who, right now say, they will go with either the winner of the state primary, or the winner in the various congressional districts. Right now that does favor Trump, as he is up double digits there. Trump will do well there. Indiana is a little different. Winner with the most votes gets 30 delegates. Then there are nine congressional districts with three delegates each. Total of 57 delegates. The winner in that district gets the three delegates. Right now, no one is sure if Cruz will win big here. He might. As I explained yesterday, in my congressional district, I could see Cruz winning. The kicker is the age of Republican voters in Indiana. We have a lot of senior citizens, who show up for the primary elections. I think they are more comfortable with Trump, than Cruz. Trump could win the state vote, and only win half the districts giving him maybe 44 delegates. Cruz could win the state vote, split the districts, and Trump only garners the 14 district votes. (44 minus the 30 equal 14) Or either one could get a massive percentage here..........
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 21, 2016 14:51:03 GMT -5
thanks for your perspective, but there is no way for either one of us to win this argument.
it all conjecture. we will see how it plays out.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 21, 2016 15:05:28 GMT -5
thanks for your perspective, but there is no way for either one of us to win this argument. it all conjecture. we will see how it plays out. Yes we will. After Tuesday, you will finally come around Indiana should just wind up being a Trump momentum win, as by then everyone will be voting for the winner.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 21, 2016 16:24:12 GMT -5
thanks for your perspective, but there is no way for either one of us to win this argument. it all conjecture. we will see how it plays out. Yes we will. After Tuesday, you will finally come around Indiana should just wind up being a Trump momentum win, as by then everyone will be voting for the winner. Indiana doesn't vote Tuesday, right? ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/cool.png)
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