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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 6:52:28 GMT -5
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 19, 2016 9:16:29 GMT -5
New York primary tonight. Trump wins and garners 85 delegate votes tonight. Maybe more. Slightly well above 70% trajectory needed to start to take the nomination outright in Cleveland. Then we have the other eastern states where he well also garner over 70% of the delegate votes. I must say, the NATIONAL media is claiming he is running away with NY. Some are claiming it could be a sweep of the delegates tonight. DO NOT BELIEVE IT. THEY ARE OVER REACTING TO SWEARING TRUMP WAS DONE ABOUT SIX DIFFERENT TIMES, AND NOW THEY ARE GOING OVER BOARD IN THE OTHER DIRECTION
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 19, 2016 9:19:50 GMT -5
Cruz has slipped to third place in New York and Pennsylvania contests behind Kasich. The Republican hierarchy has to be sweating bullets now. Now they claim Indiana is the fire wall to defeat Trump Ain't happening.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 10:32:25 GMT -5
New York primary tonight. Trump wins and garners 85 delegate votes tonight. Maybe more. Slightly well above 70% trajectory needed to start to take the nomination outright in Cleveland. Then we have the other eastern states where he well also garner over 70% of the delegate votes. I must say, the NATIONAL media is claiming he is running away with NY. Some are claiming it could be a sweep of the delegates tonight. DO NOT BELIEVE IT. THEY ARE OVER REACTING TO SWEARING TRUMP WAS DONE ABOUT SIX DIFFERENT TIMES, AND NOW THEY ARE GOING OVER BOARD IN THE OTHER DIRECTION where have i claimed (in the last week or so) that Trump is not positioned to sweep tonight?
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 10:32:55 GMT -5
Cruz has slipped to third place in New York and Pennsylvania contests behind Kasich. The Republican hierarchy has to be sweating bullets now. Now they claim Indiana is the fire wall to defeat Trump Ain't happening. Cruz is very likely to win Indiana.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 10:44:01 GMT -5
Which specific poll do you mean was not of likely voters? looks like it was the FOX poll: FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 10:46:26 GMT -5
Which specific poll do you mean was not of likely voters? looks like it was the FOX poll: FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 Actually, post 981 contains information and a link to show the Fox poll was likely voters.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 10:50:20 GMT -5
looks like it was the FOX poll: FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 Actually, post 981 contains information and a link to show the Fox poll was likely voters. that is not how RCP reported it. so, either RCP got it wrong, or you did. not sure which, but i have to run.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 11:21:55 GMT -5
Actually, post 981 contains information and a link to show the Fox poll was likely voters. that is not how RCP reported it. so, either RCP got it wrong, or you did. not sure which, but i have to run. The whole poll was of registered voters. The question of Republican preference was of likely Republican voters. I found this out by actually going to the poll and looking at the details of what was asked of whom. I provided the link so that if anyone was interested in also looking at the details they could do so easily. RCP is great for those who are satisfied just dancing on the surface of the polling world. I like to consider the real meat of things.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 12:01:45 GMT -5
that is not how RCP reported it. so, either RCP got it wrong, or you did. not sure which, but i have to run. The whole poll was of registered voters. The question of Republican preference was of likely Republican voters. I found this out by actually going to the poll and looking at the details of what was asked of whom. I provided the link so that if anyone was interested in also looking at the details they could do so easily. RCP is great for those who are satisfied just dancing on the surface of the polling world. I like to consider the real meat of things. i only do that with outliers. this poll was not an outlier. but you are welcome to do whatever you like, and what your time permits, just as i do.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 12:03:23 GMT -5
... but you are welcome to do whatever you like, ... Thank you
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 12:06:53 GMT -5
... but you are welcome to do whatever you like, ... Thank you i used to read three newspapers a day, and compare the stories for bias. it took about 4 hours. that was back before i was married and had three jobs. i don't have time for that any more. this thread is a survey of polling, not an indepth study. do you want me to write a disclaimer and put it in post #1?
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 19, 2016 12:14:59 GMT -5
New York primary tonight. Trump wins and garners 85 delegate votes tonight. Maybe more. Slightly well above 70% trajectory needed to start to take the nomination outright in Cleveland. Then we have the other eastern states where he well also garner over 70% of the delegate votes. I must say, the NATIONAL media is claiming he is running away with NY. Some are claiming it could be a sweep of the delegates tonight. DO NOT BELIEVE IT. THEY ARE OVER REACTING TO SWEARING TRUMP WAS DONE ABOUT SIX DIFFERENT TIMES, AND NOW THEY ARE GOING OVER BOARD IN THE OTHER DIRECTION where have i claimed (in the last week or so) that Trump is not positioned to sweep tonight? dj, you have some explaining to do. Are you posting here incognito, and are in actuality, a member of the NATIONAL media? I stated NATIONAL media, even highlighting NATIONAL. There was no reference to djpolldancer. Please remember I was the first to say, wait until NY, Pennsylvania and NJ to come into play, where I knew he was strong. I do not believe Trump will sweep every delegate tonight. I assume there are a couple of congressional districts that will go either Cruz or Kasich. This is not Florida where the Republican voter is basically mentally in sync throughout the state. NYC and state have various differences where everyone is not a far right winger, per se. Can Trump sweep? Maybe he will, but I would be surprised. The cable networks were stating with a degree of "certainity"yesterday and today, that Trump might sweep tonight. After Wisconsin where they and the print media stated (again) that Trump had peaked and was finished, I have to say I take whatever they claim at this point, with several grains of salt.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 12:20:20 GMT -5
where have i claimed (in the last week or so) that Trump is not positioned to sweep tonight? dj, you have some explaining to do. Are you posting here incognito, and are in actuality, a member of the NATIONAL media? ok, FINE!
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 12:24:22 GMT -5
The whole poll was of registered voters. The question of Republican preference was of likely Republican voters. I found this out by actually going to the poll and looking at the details of what was asked of whom. I provided the link so that if anyone was interested in also looking at the details they could do so easily. RCP is great for those who are satisfied just dancing on the surface of the polling world. I like to consider the real meat of things. i only do that with outliers. ... The only problem with that is you give significance to things that are just flat untrue. ... yeah. and unlike the last one, it is LIKELY voters: ...
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 19, 2016 12:32:01 GMT -5
Cruz has slipped to third place in New York and Pennsylvania contests behind Kasich. The Republican hierarchy has to be sweating bullets now. Now they claim Indiana is the fire wall to defeat Trump Ain't happening. Cruz is very likely to win Indiana. You might be correct about Indiana. I have been in Florida and not going back until early May, and quite truthfully, have not paid much attention to Indiana political news. I am basing Indiana on Michigan and Illinois election results. I admit Indiana has a strong religious right wing group, but Trump did well in the Bible belt south with this group also. Ask Cruz Unless Indiana has recently changed voting laws, Independents, Republicans, Democrats can declare the party they are voting for when they vote in the primary. This bodes well for Trump getting Independents, and disaffected Democrats coming to the Republican primary, as well as voters who usually skip the primary. With Indiana's late primary they are not usually involved in picking the nominee. This year they do. (Please do not prove me wrong on this>I would be horribly embarrassed if I have my state primary laws wrong )
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 12:38:01 GMT -5
i only do that with outliers. ... The only problem with that is you give significance to things that are just flat untrue. ... yeah. and unlike the last one, it is LIKELY voters: ... huh? what do you mean? here are the last (3) surveys on RCP: NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13 what i was claiming is that the LV survey is probably more accurate than the RV survey. how is that untrue? what i was also claiming is that the FOX poll is an outlier. it is way out of line (10% off average) from the others. how is that untrue? or is there some other "untruth" i am missing here?
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Post by Tennesseer on Apr 19, 2016 12:40:27 GMT -5
The Donald might have to sit next to the little people on commercial flights if he cannot fly on his jet. Donald Trump’s Jet, a Regular on the Campaign Trail, Is Not Registered to FlyOver the past several months, Donald J. Trump has crisscrossed the country making dozens of campaign stops in places like Sioux City, Iowa, and Jackson, Miss., often in his sleek Cessna jet. There is just one hitch: The plane’s registration is expired. Records kept with the Federal Aviation Administration show the aircraft’s registration lapsed on Jan. 31. Laura J. Brown, a spokeswoman for the Federal Aviation Administration, confirmed that the plane’s registration was not in good standing and said the owner had not renewed it. With few exceptions, aircraft must be registered in order to fly. Mr. Trump’s plane could be grounded for several days, or even months, while the issue is sorted out. In the event of an accident, the company that insures the plane could use the expired registration as a reason to decline any claims. Complete article here: Donald Trump’s Jet, a Regular on the Campaign Trail, Is Not Registered to Fly
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 19, 2016 12:42:37 GMT -5
dj, I think the problem lies where you combine polls and state "the latest poll says", when you are combining polls. I understand your references as you have previously explained the technique. It is just hard for board members to discuss or argue about percentages when they are your percentages and not the polling service numbers. I guess you have to just add the disclaimer whether you want to or not.
I understand where billisonboard is coming from.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 12:47:43 GMT -5
dj, I think the problem lies where you combine polls and state "the latest poll says", i already addressed that, and corrected the language of the offending post.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 13:19:36 GMT -5
The only problem with that is you give significance to things that are just flat untrue. huh? what do you mean? here are the last (3) surveys on RCP: NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13 what i was claiming is that the LV survey is probably more accurate than the RV survey. how is that untrue? what i was also claiming is that the FOX poll is an outlier. it is way out of line (10% off average) from the others. how is that untrue? or is there some other "untruth" i am missing here? It is untrue that the specific data you were using is not based on "LIKELY" voters. You relied on a secondary source which did not get it correct. You indicated that the NBC poll had more significance than the FOX and/or maybe the CBS poll because its data was likely voters. Since all are based on likely voters, that can't make one more significant than the others. I find polling very interesting. I also find people's discussions of polling interesting so I like to occasionally spend the time to analyze our self proclaimed poll dancer's postings.
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Post by tallguy on Apr 19, 2016 13:22:41 GMT -5
yeah. and unlike the last one, it is LIKELY voters: NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 this one is pretty much a statistical tie. now, that could also mean that Trump is +10%, which is his national average. in short, we will have to see. Trump got a huge pop when the last of the candidates dropped out (about 8%). my speculation is that it was more that people who were sitting on the fence decided to go with him than it was, say, Rubio supporters- but i might be mistaken. in any case, he has been within 3% of 40% for an entire month, now. he rose initially, and has been falling ever since- but VERY SLOWLY. his numbers are absolutely getting stronger in PA. they are almost as good as NY now. and if he wins both states with over 50% of the vote, he is going to clean up and be VERY CLOSE to target. You would not believe how sorry I am now that I asked the question....
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 13:25:50 GMT -5
huh? what do you mean? here are the last (3) surveys on RCP: NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13 what i was claiming is that the LV survey is probably more accurate than the RV survey. how is that untrue? what i was also claiming is that the FOX poll is an outlier. it is way out of line (10% off average) from the others. how is that untrue? or is there some other "untruth" i am missing here? It is untrue that the specific data you were using is not based on "LIKELY" voters. You relied on a secondary source which did not get it correct. You indicated that the NBC poll had more significance than the FOX and/or maybe the CBS poll because its data was likely voters. Since all are based on likely voters, that can't make one more significant than the others. I find polling very interesting. I also find people's discussions of polling interesting so I like to occasionally spend the time to analyze our self proclaimed poll dancer's postings. the survey was identified as a registered voter's survey, bills. if RCP messed up, that's fine. for the record, i still have not had time to review that.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 13:26:41 GMT -5
yeah. and unlike the last one, it is LIKELY voters: NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 this one is pretty much a statistical tie. now, that could also mean that Trump is +10%, which is his national average. in short, we will have to see. Trump got a huge pop when the last of the candidates dropped out (about 8%). my speculation is that it was more that people who were sitting on the fence decided to go with him than it was, say, Rubio supporters- but i might be mistaken. in any case, he has been within 3% of 40% for an entire month, now. he rose initially, and has been falling ever since- but VERY SLOWLY. his numbers are absolutely getting stronger in PA. they are almost as good as NY now. and if he wins both states with over 50% of the vote, he is going to clean up and be VERY CLOSE to target. You would not believe how sorry I am now that I asked the question....
don't be. i like bills, and find his questions totally reasonable.
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Post by mroped on Apr 19, 2016 14:14:11 GMT -5
Right now, Donald J Trump looks pretty good as a front runner. His position became stronger after his claim in regards to the Twin Towers. Aparently(and he might have proof of it) he "was there on 7/11 when the towers collapsed" and he helped dig people out of the ruble! He is by now a bona fide hero!
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 19, 2016 14:43:15 GMT -5
Right now, Donald J Trump looks pretty good as a front runner. His position became stronger after his claim in regards to the Twin Towers. Aparently(and he might have proof of it) he "was there on 7/11 when the towers collapsed" and he helped dig people out of the ruble! He is by now a bona fide hero! Got to ask. Did Trump state he was there on 7/11 or was he at 7/11 on 9/11 getting a large Slurpy?
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 15:26:41 GMT -5
The only problem with that is you give significance to things that are just flat untrue. huh? what do you mean? here are the last (3) surveys on RCP: NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13 what i was claiming is that the LV survey is probably more accurate than the RV survey. how is that untrue? what i was also claiming is that the FOX poll is an outlier. it is way out of line (10% off average) from the others. how is that untrue? or is there some other "untruth" i am missing here? More details: So RV polls are probably less accurate. Looking at the polls that the averages listed are drawn from ( RealClearPolitics RCP Poll Average), it is the polls showing Trump in the 30's which rely on RV's not LV's: Supporting links: www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Tables_Apr2016_Posting-1.pdfpublicreligion.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PRRI-The-Atlantic-Poll-Topline-FINAL.pdfThose polls drag the averages down. Which means that the FOX poll isn't really the outlier it may appear.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 19, 2016 15:53:24 GMT -5
huh? what do you mean? here are the last (3) surveys on RCP: NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13 what i was claiming is that the LV survey is probably more accurate than the RV survey. how is that untrue? what i was also claiming is that the FOX poll is an outlier. it is way out of line (10% off average) from the others. how is that untrue? or is there some other "untruth" i am missing here? More details: So RV polls are probably less accurate. Looking at the polls that the averages listed are drawn from ( RealClearPolitics RCP Poll Average), it is the polls showing Trump in the 30's which rely on RV's not LV's: Supporting links: www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Tables_Apr2016_Posting-1.pdfpublicreligion.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PRRI-The-Atlantic-Poll-Topline-FINAL.pdfThose polls drag the averages down. Which means that the FOX poll isn't really the outlier it may appear. This year, it looks like NBC/ WSJ polls have been the outlier polls with bad numbers.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 17:06:29 GMT -5
Reconsidered post. It was off-base so deleted it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 19:01:53 GMT -5
huh? what do you mean? here are the last (3) surveys on RCP: NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 FOX News 4/11 - 4/13 419 RV 45 27 25 Trump +18 CBS News 4/8 - 4/12 399 LV 42 29 18 Trump +13 what i was claiming is that the LV survey is probably more accurate than the RV survey. how is that untrue? what i was also claiming is that the FOX poll is an outlier. it is way out of line (10% off average) from the others. how is that untrue? or is there some other "untruth" i am missing here? More details: So RV polls are probably less accurate. Looking at the polls that the averages listed are drawn from ( RealClearPolitics RCP Poll Average), it is the polls showing Trump in the 30's which rely on RV's not LV's: Supporting links: www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Tables_Apr2016_Posting-1.pdfpublicreligion.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PRRI-The-Atlantic-Poll-Topline-FINAL.pdfThose polls drag the averages down. Which means that the FOX poll isn't really the outlier it may appear. without looking, i think it is at least 8 points off the nearest RV poll in the last month. right or wrong?
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