Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 17, 2016 21:36:44 GMT -5
Cruz just got through totally outflanking and crushing Trump in WY. don't know if anyone noticed. he got 23 of 29 delegates. Trump gone ONE. I thought Wyoming was like 13 delegates? Wyoming was another one of the "state's rights issue" states arguing with federal land rights, and crazy caucuses, or votes with out citizens voting. Sounds more like Soviet Russia and the central planning government setup only with states, rather than the federal government. Let's talk New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland. In states that actually have registered citizens vote. How many will Cruz garner there?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 17, 2016 21:40:52 GMT -5
Cruz just got through totally outflanking and crushing Trump in WY. don't know if anyone noticed. he got 23 of 29 delegates. Trump gone ONE. I thought Wyoming was like 13 delegates? Wyoming was another one of the "state's rights issue" states arguing with federal land rights, and crazy caucuses, or votes with out citizens voting. Sounds more like Soviet Russia and the central planning government setup only with states, rather than the federal government. Let's talk New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland. In states that actually have registered citizens vote. How many will Cruz garner there? i think he will get approximately zero in those three states. but he might get as many as 150 in CA. does that count? edit: VB- i just noticed a new YouGov poll that has Trump +18% in CA. that is very bad news for Cruz. Trump is now favored to win here. of course, i will cast my vote for Cruz to prevent that, but i am only one person. he might win the nomination outright. up until now, i felt that Cruz had a better chance in CA, but now i give Trump 5:4 odds of winning the state, which would be devastating for Cruz and Kasich, and would be great news for Trump, in terms of winning the nomination. April 26th is setting up to be an ass kicking handed out by Trump and Clinton. let's see if that turns out to be right.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 17, 2016 21:57:12 GMT -5
California has some real wonky Congressional districts, but I do not know if they favor Republicans or the Democrats.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2016 22:17:22 GMT -5
I thought Wyoming was like 13 delegates? Wyoming was another one of the "state's rights issue" states arguing with federal land rights, and crazy caucuses, or votes with out citizens voting. Sounds more like Soviet Russia and the central planning government setup only with states, rather than the federal government. Let's talk New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland. In states that actually have registered citizens vote. How many will Cruz garner there? i think he will get approximately zero in those three states. but he might get as many as 150 in CA. does that count? edit: VB- i just noticed a new YouGov poll that has Trump +18% in CA. that is very bad news for Cruz. Trump is now favored to win here. of course, i will cast my vote for Cruz to prevent that, but i am only one person. he might win the nomination outright. up until now, i felt that Cruz had a better chance in CA, but now i give Trump 5:4 odds of winning the state, which would be devastating for Cruz and Kasich, and would be great news for Trump, in terms of winning the nomination. April 26th is setting up to be an ass kicking handed out by Trump and Clinton. let's see if that turns out to be right. I can't believe you could vote for a Theocrat (even in a primary, and even to beat Trump).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 17, 2016 23:45:04 GMT -5
California has some real wonky Congressional districts, but I do not know if they favor Republicans or the Democrats. the districts in CA are drawn by a non-partisan commission. it is why we have proportional representation here.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 17, 2016 23:45:53 GMT -5
i think he will get approximately zero in those three states. but he might get as many as 150 in CA. does that count? edit: VB- i just noticed a new YouGov poll that has Trump +18% in CA. that is very bad news for Cruz. Trump is now favored to win here. of course, i will cast my vote for Cruz to prevent that, but i am only one person. he might win the nomination outright. up until now, i felt that Cruz had a better chance in CA, but now i give Trump 5:4 odds of winning the state, which would be devastating for Cruz and Kasich, and would be great news for Trump, in terms of winning the nomination. April 26th is setting up to be an ass kicking handed out by Trump and Clinton. let's see if that turns out to be right. I can't believe you could vote for a Theocrat (even in a primary, and even to beat Trump). let me know when you figure out the depth of my loathing of Trump.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Apr 18, 2016 0:12:51 GMT -5
I can't believe you could vote for a Theocrat (even in a primary, and even to beat Trump). let me know when you figure out the depth of my loathing of Trump. I'm pretty sure it is just about the depth of my loathing of Cruz.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 1:56:02 GMT -5
I can't believe you could vote for a Theocrat (even in a primary, and even to beat Trump). let me know when you figure out the depth of my loathing of Trump. But to vote for someone who's goal it is to bring God back to the government... the way he believes the forefathers wished it to REALLY be? I don't believe your loathing of Trump is any greater than mine... What's different between us is your preference for Cruz over my preference for Tickle-me-Elmo. If I HAVE to vote for Trump (so I can pit a nail in Hillary's coffin, whether it's an effective one or not)... I'l be in the voting booth in a HAZ-MAT suit. If it's Cruz v. Hillary... a HAZ-MAT suit wouldn't be enough protection to even consider voting for him.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 1:57:26 GMT -5
let me know when you figure out the depth of my loathing of Trump. I'm pretty sure it is just about the depth of my loathing of Cruz. The Marianas Trench isn't deep enough to contain my loathing of Cruz... Even if you started at the altitude of the summit or Everest.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 2:00:36 GMT -5
California has some real wonky Congressional districts, but I do not know if they favor Republicans or the Democrats. the districts in CA are drawn by a non-partisan commission. it is why we have proportional representation here. Californians are proportionally crazy then... for proof, I give you: Nancy Pelosi (of the "we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it" fame). Any questions?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 5:15:22 GMT -5
Trump can be wacky, and say crazy and scary things. Cruz is truly f'n scary. I don't want to fight Iran because his god tells us to. And because it needs to be liked again...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2016 5:16:00 GMT -5
Trump can be wacky, and say crazy and scary things. Cruz is truly f'n scary. I don't want to fight Iran because his god tells us to. And because it needs to be liked again... And again...
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 18, 2016 10:28:54 GMT -5
the districts in CA are drawn by a non-partisan commission. it is why we have proportional representation here. Californians are proportionally crazy then... for proof, I give you: Nancy Pelosi (of the "we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it" fame). Any questions? by proportional i mean that our legislature and representation roughly represent the population. unlike Michigan, and several other states, where it is WILDLY disproportionate.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 18, 2016 10:30:57 GMT -5
let me know when you figure out the depth of my loathing of Trump. But to vote for someone who's goal it is to bring God back to the government... the way he believes the forefathers wished it to REALLY be? I don't believe your loathing of Trump is any greater than mine... What's different between us is your preference for Cruz over my preference for Tickle-me-Elmo. If I HAVE to vote for Trump (so I can pit a nail in Hillary's coffin, whether it's an effective one or not)... I'l be in the voting booth in a HAZ-MAT suit. If it's Cruz v. Hillary... a HAZ-MAT suit wouldn't be enough protection to even consider voting for him. i understand your concern, but we are a long way from that.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 18, 2016 20:57:38 GMT -5
after two great polls in a row, Trump got a bad one today. here are the new polling averages from RCP*:
Trump 40 +9 Cruz 31 +10 Kasich 21
hard to tell what is going on here, but i still think the news is generally good for Trump. i will add THIS, however:
Kasich is now closer to Trump than he has been all campaign, and at his best numbers of the primary season. he is now +2% in the last (3) weeks (-vs- +1% for Cruz and -3% for Trump). it is not enough to win any contests, but he is not fading away, like i expected.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Apr 18, 2016 21:26:35 GMT -5
Is that a national poll?
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 18, 2016 23:12:49 GMT -5
yeah. and unlike the last one, it is LIKELY voters: NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 4/10 - 4/14 310 LV 40 35 24 Trump +5 this one is pretty much a statistical tie. now, that could also mean that Trump is +10%, which is his national average. in short, we will have to see. Trump got a huge pop when the last of the candidates dropped out (about 8%). my speculation is that it was more that people who were sitting on the fence decided to go with him than it was, say, Rubio supporters- but i might be mistaken. in any case, he has been within 3% of 40% for an entire month, now. he rose initially, and has been falling ever since- but VERY SLOWLY. his numbers are absolutely getting stronger in PA. they are almost as good as NY now. and if he wins both states with over 50% of the vote, he is going to clean up and be VERY CLOSE to target.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 18, 2016 23:16:34 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 18, 2016 23:21:58 GMT -5
Always interesting to figure out which poll is being referred to by dj. i am always quoting the average of the polls, unless i am specifically asked about the latest poll. my response to tallguy (just before you posted) included the data from the nbc/wsj poll, including the name of the poll and the sample size. other than directing him to the PDF detailed results, i don't know how much more i could have done.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Apr 18, 2016 23:24:08 GMT -5
Well, I can't see Trump winning the general, so much better he knock Cruz out before the GOP completely rallies behind him. I don't see Cruz as electable either, to be honest, but there is a much better chance that Congress would stymie Trump than Cruz.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 18, 2016 23:31:09 GMT -5
after two great polls in a row, Trump got a bad one today: Trump 40 +9 Cruz 31 +10 Kasich 21 ... Always interesting to figure out which poll is being referred to by dj. i am always quoting the average of the polls, unless i am specifically asked about the latest poll. ... Oh, I read "... a bad one today" followed by a colon as meaning that the numbers which followed were from one poll released today. Carry on.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 18, 2016 23:35:06 GMT -5
... yeah. and unlike the last one, it is LIKELY voters: ... Which is "the last one" you reference here? (Just to be sure.)
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 18, 2016 23:38:53 GMT -5
Which is "the last one" you reference here? (Just to be sure.) affirmative. Which specific poll do you mean was not of likely voters?
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 18, 2016 23:41:07 GMT -5
Oh, I read "... a bad one today" followed by a colon as meaning that the numbers which followed were from one poll released today. Carry on. i know, i know. i used to say that shtick about the averages every time, but i got tired of it 3 months ago. sorry about the confusion. but like i say, when someone asks, i always explain it, and it saves me the keystrokes (even though, obviously, it loses in clarity). For me it loses truth.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 18, 2016 23:53:54 GMT -5
i know, i know. i used to say that shtick about the averages every time, but i got tired of it 3 months ago. sorry about the confusion. but like i say, when someone asks, i always explain it, and it saves me the keystrokes (even though, obviously, it loses in clarity). For me it loses truth. i fixed it for you, bills. again, sorry about the confusion.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 0:05:13 GMT -5
i fixed it for you, bills. again, sorry about the confusion. Okay, now deal with the fact the poll you referenced as "bad" was a record high for Trump in that poll.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 0:10:06 GMT -5
djAdvocate, I was also wondering if you could help me with the info request in 974.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 0:13:31 GMT -5
i fixed it for you, bills. again, sorry about the confusion. Okay, now deal with the fact the poll you referenced as "bad" was a record high for Trump in that poll. it wasn't a "record high". he has polled higher in over a dozen polls dating all the way back to December. if you meant according to this individual pollster, i don't think there is too much to be read into that. it has been six weeks since NBC polled. i have been trying to track these numbers weekly. but you might be right- maybe Trump is soaring. his PA numbers seem to be saying that. the national numbers are far less certain, imo.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 19, 2016 0:14:49 GMT -5
djAdvocate , I was also wondering if you could help me with the info request in 974. the previous two polls were of registered voters. one was CBS, and i think the other one was FOX.
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 19, 2016 0:23:34 GMT -5
djAdvocate , I was also wondering if you could help me with the info request in 974. the previous two polls were of registered voters. one was CBS, and i think the other one was FOX. Here is where it shows the Fox poll is "likely voters". 6.
more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican [primary election/caucus] forpresident, or are you unlikely to participate in either?
DemocraticPrimary/caucus
RepublicanPrimary/caucus Neither (Don’t know)
11-13 Apr 16
44% 41 11 4Self-identified Democrats 87% 2 9 2Self-identified Republicans 3% 88 7 1Self-identified Independents 35% 30 25 10*Breakout among self-identified D/R/I based on party identification question – below Q47
[Q7-8 IF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY/CAUCUS IN Q6, N=419]
www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/04/14/fox-news-poll-national-release-april-14-2016/ Bedtime. I don't have time to check to see if you got it right on the CBS poll.
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