dondub
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The meek shall indeed inherit the earth but only after the Visigoths are done with it.
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Post by dondub on Apr 7, 2016 13:52:10 GMT -5
Trump IS the toilet.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Apr 7, 2016 14:39:33 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 7, 2016 14:49:02 GMT -5
CA is ALWAYS on June 7th (or the nearest Tuesday to that date). it will be nice to matter, for once. i don't think that Trump is actually leading. what the polling agencies are doing is assuming the national demographics for the state, and i don't think that is very accurate. as i say, CA is not used to mattering. it also tends to be highly partisan. and i expect that Cruz is going to spend a LOT of time and energy winning the state. i mean, he was even campaigning in ARIZONA, where he had no realistic chance of winning. he is going to really beat the pavement to win here, and i think he will do very well. in fact, i don't even think it will be within polling error, as of today. i think he will win it easily. this is why i think that the WS article is prescient. they have actually nailed the outcome of the races since that article was published. i see no reason to suspect that their remaining modeling is any less accurate. here is the OTHER thing i think about Trump: he believes in the polls as much as i do. if he thinks he is going to win the state (based on the polls) he won't really campaign here. we will see how this goes- but yeah, i think that, FOR ONCE, CA is going to matter in the primary. perhaps on both sides.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 8, 2016 13:37:44 GMT -5
Sorry about transposing the candidates. I knew you said Kasich was leading. you did it again. Cruz is leading.And Trump is at 52% in New York, and yet Cruzis in the teens there and was under 50% in Wisconsin and media says it was a blowout. I guess the frontrunners are held to a higher standard by the media...... of course. that makes sense, right?And Trump is up 6% over Cruz in California, gaining momentum since, earlier polls had Cruz leading. i never said he wasn't leading in the polls. i said that 538 has Cruz as the favourite.Trump does have a hard road ahead to take the nomination outright, but it is still within the realm of possibility. i never claimed otherwise. i simply claimed that i don't think he gets there by the convention. edit: i give him a 35% chance, as of today. NY, Pennsylvania, Indiana and a few other eastern states should give him a heavy number of delegates. NY state looks like a 70% delegate win for Trump. Or even higher. possibly. it depends on whether Cruz AND Kasich get over 20%, one of them does, or neither do.Then it leaves it to the California outcome as the decider. You should be a much better "reader" of the California delegate outcome than I ever could be, so I defer to you on California. i am deferring to 538 as of now, where they are currently showing Cruz as a 5:3 favourite. NOTE: Trump has to win about 60% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination. he has only won about 45% of them so far, so i think this is far more unlikely than even 538 does, especially since his numbers are falling, not rising. he is now 59 delegates short of a winning pace. if he keeps going this way, he will be lucky to get 1100. Sorry about Cruz and Kasich! I will get it correct next time! Instead, look at NY www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-trump-has-commanding-34-point-lead-in-new-york/ar-BBrwGgV?li=BBnb7KzTrump, if he does not meltdown in the next week, for like the 35th time, should garner about 75% of the delegates from NY state Should help on the delegate deficit.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 8, 2016 15:31:00 GMT -5
i am deferring to 538 as of now, where they are currently showing Cruz as a 5:3 favourite. NOTE: Trump has to win about 60% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination. he has only won about 45% of them so far, so i think this is far more unlikely than even 538 does, especially since his numbers are falling, not rising. he is now 59 delegates short of a winning pace. if he keeps going this way, he will be lucky to get 1100. Sorry about Cruz and Kasich! I will get it correct next time! Instead, look at NY www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-trump-has-commanding-34-point-lead-in-new-york/ar-BBrwGgV?li=BBnb7KzTrump, if he does not meltdown in the next week, for like the 35th time, should garner about 75% of the delegates from NY state Should help on the delegate deficit. like i say, the key for Kasich and Cruz is to win over 20%. if they do, they will undercut Trump again, which is the goal for them.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Apr 8, 2016 22:04:48 GMT -5
Everyone on the one side of the fence here has stated that Trump cannot win, NO way NO how!
Why do you continue to beat the drum about how bad Trump is After all he is never going to win!
Just move on to the real agenda, by telling us how wonderful Hillary is??
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 8, 2016 22:13:49 GMT -5
Everyone on the one side of the fence here has stated that Trump cannot win, NO way NO how! if everyone is the same as nobody, then i agree with you. Why do you continue to beat the drum about how bad Trump is After all he is never going to win! i give Trump a 35% chance of winning the nomination, and a 13% chance of winning the election.Just move on to the real agenda, by telling us how wonderful Hillary is?? Hillary sucks, and i will not be voting for her. but she is about 70% likely to win, imo.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2016 22:20:15 GMT -5
I don't love Hilary. But I'll vote for her. I won't risk the court.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 10, 2016 2:56:50 GMT -5
Trump is now on track to get 1169 delegates. if this keeps up, he will get even less than that.
he is basically in an identical position to wrap up the nomination as is Bernie Sanders. they are both 8% below target.
edit: Trump could cut the gap in half by keeping both Kasich and Cruz to under 20% in NY and sweeping that primary. i think the odds of that are quite low, but it is certainly possible.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2016 6:50:54 GMT -5
I don't love Hilary. But I'll vote for her. I won't risk the court. because you think it might come down to one vote in one state making te difference?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2016 7:57:27 GMT -5
Florida 2000
And it won't just be one. It will be a movement.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 10, 2016 9:37:36 GMT -5
I don't love Hilary. But I'll vote for her. I won't risk the court. because you think it might come down to one vote in one state making te difference? For me, it is a question of why risk it won't. I make the choice to exceed the posted speed limit all the time. The few times in my life that a police officer was around I paid a price for that choice. But I did simply pay the fine and went home. If oped were to not vote for Hillary and she were to lose by that one vote in one state, oped could not just pay the fine and go home. The price would be paid again and again with each Supreme Court ruling.
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marvholly
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Post by marvholly on Apr 11, 2016 6:04:14 GMT -5
I am somewhat confused. We have not been hearing much out of Trump for a bit. Gotta wonder if:
he is trying to look more 'presidential' OR he is asking himself what the............blue blazes have I done
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 11, 2016 12:43:49 GMT -5
Trump 39 +7 Cruz 32 +12 Kasich 20 the good news if you are Cruz and Kasich- Trump's numbers have fallen 4% in the last (18) days. Cruz is up 3% and Kasich is up 1% during that time. the bad news if you are Cruz and Kasich- your numbers are leveling off. you have actually LOST a bit of ground in the last week. not much- and it might just be "poll influence", but some. in other words, you have little or no momentum, and you are still losing. step up your game.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 14, 2016 15:13:57 GMT -5
more good news for Trump today.
CBS has him +13% in the national poll. although that is -7% from the last CBS survey, it is still about 2x what the other surveys have shown in the latest week.
in addition, Monmouth has him +16% in PA, and with more than 50% of the vote. if this holds, the numbers are similar to NY, and should put Trump very close to target for delegates, provided that everything else goes as predicted.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Apr 14, 2016 16:19:24 GMT -5
I had to use tweezers to extract this week's Time Magazine out of my mailbox. No he isn't.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2016 16:33:32 GMT -5
I had to use tweezers to extract this week's Time Magazine out of my mailbox. No he isn't. some politicians just bring out the disgust, don't they? Why don't you like him? I heard he wanted to "make sand glow" and that was enough for me to dismiss him as anyone I could support. But other then that I know little of him. eta: I have read some stuff on Reason.com that implies he is a hypocrite.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Apr 14, 2016 16:40:07 GMT -5
I had to use tweezers to extract this week's Time Magazine out of my mailbox. No he isn't. some politicians just bring out the disgust, don't they? Why don't you like him? I heard he wanted to "make sand glow" and that was enough for me to dismiss him as anyone I could support. But other then that I know little of him. eta: I have read some stuff on Reason.com that implies he is a hypocrite. The guy makes my skin crawl. I feel the need to take a shower with a Brillo pad after watching and listening to him. I am against about every position he is for.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Apr 14, 2016 17:10:34 GMT -5
Spreading hate has backfired on right-wing media: How Fox News unwittingly destroyed the Republican PartyThe Republican Party is in a pickle. The Party itself despises its own two leading presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. This is a remarkable oddity just in itself. But there is good reason for it. Both of these candidates are so extreme and disastrous that they will almost certainly never be able to win a national election for the Republican Party. But much worse, if and when one of these candidates does become the Republican Party’s nominee, the GOP could very well be torn asunder into factions. This could devastate the party for years or even decades to come. The Republicans, however, have no one to blame but themselves. This is a crisis of their own creation. And it didn’t just happen overnight. The Republican Party has been fomenting anger and discontent in the base of its own Party for years. The mechanism through which this hate has been disseminated has been the network of extremist media of right-wing talk radio and the Fox News Channel, which is essentially talk radio transposed onto television. Just think of all the right-wing “superstars” who spew messages of anger and hate every single day throughout the land over this enormous megaphone. Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham, Ben Shapiro, Dana Loesch, Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity, to name a few. Complete article here: Spreading hate has backfired on right-wing media: How Fox News unwittingly destroyed the Republican Party
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2016 18:28:36 GMT -5
I had to use tweezers to extract this week's Time Magazine out of my mailbox. No he isn't. SPOILER THAT CRAP!!!!! where's my eye bleach?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Apr 14, 2016 18:45:53 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 15, 2016 15:51:13 GMT -5
a new and very large Optimus Poll in NY is very revealing, and i think probably accurate.
it shows two things that are somewhat surprising:
1) it shows Trump just a whisker below 50% 2) it shows Cruz at a lowly 14%
there is over 10% undecided in the poll. it is hard to imagine it going to Trump (as it has failed to do so in pretty much every other primary), but it might.
Trump is clearly dominating NY, but there is reason for Kasich to hope that he might get some delegates, there.
i think Cruz might get goosegged, which is going to really pull the wheels off his little red wagon.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Apr 16, 2016 10:15:54 GMT -5
a new and very large Optimus Poll in NY is very revealing, and i think probably accurate. it shows two things that are somewhat surprising: 1) it shows Trump just a whisker below 50% 2) it shows Cruz at a lowly 14% there is over 10% undecided in the poll. it is hard to imagine it going to Trump (as it has failed to do so in pretty much every other primary), but it might. Trump is clearly dominating NY, but there is reason for Kasich to hope that he might get some delegates, there. i think Cruz might get goosegged, which is going to really pull the wheels off his little red wagon.Couldn't happen to a nicer guy....
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 17, 2016 1:21:50 GMT -5
a new and very large Optimus Poll in NY is very revealing, and i think probably accurate. it shows two things that are somewhat surprising: 1) it shows Trump just a whisker below 50% 2) it shows Cruz at a lowly 14% there is over 10% undecided in the poll. it is hard to imagine it going to Trump (as it has failed to do so in pretty much every other primary), but it might. Trump is clearly dominating NY, but there is reason for Kasich to hope that he might get some delegates, there. i think Cruz might get goosegged, which is going to really pull the wheels off his little red wagon.Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.... i get the distinct feeling you are not going to join Paul's Cruz campaign.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Apr 17, 2016 3:13:17 GMT -5
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.... i get the distinct feeling you are not going to join Paul's Cruz campaign. Pretty safe bet I would never join anything related to either one of 'em!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2016 5:15:12 GMT -5
i get the distinct feeling you are not going to join Paul's Cruz campaign. Pretty safe bet I would never join anything related to either one of 'em! Why not? In math two negatives make a positive, you know...
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Apr 17, 2016 8:09:21 GMT -5
Pretty safe bet I would never join anything related to either one of 'em! Why not? In math two negatives make a positive, you know... Or it becomes exponentially worse....
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 17, 2016 10:47:30 GMT -5
Why not? In math two negatives make a positive, you know... Or it becomes exponentially worse.... that is how it works in Spanish.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Apr 17, 2016 11:19:31 GMT -5
And Newspeak.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 17, 2016 17:43:04 GMT -5
Cruz just got through totally outflanking and crushing Trump in WY. don't know if anyone noticed.
he got 23 of 29 delegates. Trump gone ONE.
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