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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2016 20:19:10 GMT -5
I think if Trump gets the most delegates and does not get the nomination, it would cause many republicans to just not vote. It would cost them elections in congress. The tea party was corrupted by national republican leaders, but the ideas behind it still exist. I think many of those people and those ideas would leave the republican party. They might not have anywhere to go, but they can still leave. If something is not working and shows itself to be completely broken, common sense says to accept that after a while. The republican party is a party of war and cronyism. Hopefully democrats will get exposed as the same soon. there are a whole host of things that might happen, and these are certainly among them. i am not convinced that Trump voters are all that reliable anyway. only half of his voters who voted for him in the primary are committed to voting for him in the GE. getting 1/2 of 1/3 of 1/3 of the votes is not going to win him anything, so i don't know what the GOP loses by having the Trump voters stay home.there is another opinion about those that are likely to show up if Trump WINS the nomination- and that is that people who loathe him, both on the GOP and Democratic side, would not only vote against him, but vote against any candidate that appears to support him. so, viewed this way, i think it is a lose/lose for the GOP. which is precisely why Clinton is probably cackling in her mirthless laugh at regular intervals as this unfolds. What they lose is the Republican votes for Senate or Congress that would have been cast by those that stay home instead.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2016 20:34:43 GMT -5
o. here is a similarly ignorant argument from those imbiciles over at the Washington Post:
It is a horseshit argument because of all the qualifiers you used. "i'm not convinced" "there is another opinion" "might happen". I gave my opinion and instead of replying to it with something to say, you just poke at it without saying anything. But you cover yourself, so that if I criticized your view you can reply it was not your view, just "another opinion" etc. Just poke at other people it makes you look socratic. I left some words wrong so you can put "sic" in to show that you are smarter
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 3, 2016 21:17:49 GMT -5
It is a horseshit argument because of all the qualifiers you used. "i'm not convinced" "there is another opinion" "might happen". I gave my opinion and instead of replying to it with something to say, you just poke at it without saying anything. But you cover yourself, so that if I criticized your view you can reply it was not your view, just "another opinion" etc. Just poke at other people it makes you look socratic. it's just how i think, hickle. i am never 100% sure of anything. I left some words wrong so you can put "sic" in to show that you are smarter i am as dumb as a post, hickle. i am sure that most people here are every bit as smart as me, including yourself. i write "sic" so that people can correct their errors without being called out. i appreciate it when others do it with me, as well. i am a terrible speller, and even worse at grammar. but if nobody ever corrects me, i will just have to suffer that embarrassment without ever having been made aware of it. some people think that is "courtesy". but i don't.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 3, 2016 21:19:33 GMT -5
there are a whole host of things that might happen, and these are certainly among them. i am not convinced that Trump voters are all that reliable anyway. only half of his voters who voted for him in the primary are committed to voting for him in the GE. getting 1/2 of 1/3 of 1/3 of the votes is not going to win him anything, so i don't know what the GOP loses by having the Trump voters stay home.there is another opinion about those that are likely to show up if Trump WINS the nomination- and that is that people who loathe him, both on the GOP and Democratic side, would not only vote against him, but vote against any candidate that appears to support him. so, viewed this way, i think it is a lose/lose for the GOP. which is precisely why Clinton is probably cackling in her mirthless laugh at regular intervals as this unfolds. What they lose is the Republican votes for Senate or Congress that would have been cast by those that stay home instead. if someone could convince me that those would be reliable GOP votes, i would be way more concerned about this than i am.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2016 22:31:58 GMT -5
Point taken.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 4, 2016 8:15:20 GMT -5
A poll today showed Trump within 5% of Cruz in Wisconsin. It should be interesting how many Congressional districts are won by both candidates. If Cruz wins the popular vote total, Trump will have to win two thirds of the congressional districts to make the delegate count in Wisconsin come out fairly even. Wisconsin Republicans are pretty much far far right, lining up politically with the mountain state's that favored Cruz.
Trump is at 52% in New York state.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 4, 2016 9:40:07 GMT -5
A poll today showed Trump within 5% of Cruz in Wisconsin. It should be interesting how many Congressional districts are won by both candidates. If Cruz wins the popular vote total, Trump will have to win two thirds of the congressional districts to make the delegate count in Wisconsin come out fairly even. Wisconsin Republicans are pretty much far far right, lining up politically with the mountain state's that favored Cruz. Trump is at 52% in New York state. quick question for you, VB: why are you always posting about how Trump is leading this and that?
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Post by OldCoyote on Apr 4, 2016 9:58:50 GMT -5
Because you post the opposite, DJ.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 4, 2016 9:59:53 GMT -5
new national polling data out today:
Trump 40 +8 Cruz 33 +12 Kasich 21
so, again, we have Kasich and Cruz up 2%, and Trump down another 1%. this is a very slow meltdown, but it is perceptable. since March 24th, Trump is down 3%, Cruz is up 3%, and Kasich is up 2%. at this pace, it would take about 2 weeks for Cruz to catch Trump- which would be about NY.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 4, 2016 10:00:39 GMT -5
Because you post the opposite, DJ. that is the reply that i am predicting, oc.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 4, 2016 20:16:29 GMT -5
ARG just had a poll in WI that shows TRUMP +10%
this is the first poll that has even shown him LEADING in the last six, and is an extreme outlier- but it might also be correct. this is an open primary, and Trump does well in them.
i am really loving how interesting WI is this year. on both sides.
538 shows Cruz and Sanders winning, but i think it is too close to call on both sides. i suspect that 538 is right, but i would not lay any bets on either of these outcomes.
edit: i just saw that ARG also has Clinton up 1%. they HAVE TO BE using different demographic assumptions than the other pollsters- but they are also highly contrarian here- and sometimes (not often) contrarian polls are right. if they are RIGHT, it will be a big coup for them, as they are all alone in these two predictions.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 5, 2016 15:37:28 GMT -5
A poll today showed Trump within 5% of Cruz in Wisconsin. It should be interesting how many Congressional districts are won by both candidates. If Cruz wins the popular vote total, Trump will have to win two thirds of the congressional districts to make the delegate count in Wisconsin come out fairly even. Wisconsin Republicans are pretty much far far right, lining up politically with the mountain state's that favored Cruz. Trump is at 52% in New York state. quick question for you, VB: why are you always posting about how Trump is leading this and that? Just as you report current news, I do also. New York looks like it could be very important. Currently Trump is over the 50% mark there. If he holds it, and stays above 50% some people will have to realize he is going to take the nomination. I am thinking if Kasich comes in third in Wisconsin, he will have too much pressure on him to drop out, leaving Pennsylvania plainly in Trump's column. And an fyi, it also looks like California will certainly be going Trump's way.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 5, 2016 17:15:48 GMT -5
quick question for you, VB: why are you always posting about how Trump is leading this and that? Just as you report current news, I do also. is your dial broken?
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 5, 2016 17:18:28 GMT -5
New York looks like it could be very important. in the sense that Trump has to win it? i agree. winning your home state is a litmus test.Currently Trump is over the 50% mark there. If he holds it, and stays above 50% some people will have to realize he is going to take the nomination. right, because Sanders winning over 70% in Vermont means that he is going to take the nomination, right?I am thinking if Kasich comes in third in Wisconsin, he will have too much pressure on him to drop out, leaving Pennsylvania plainly in Trump's column. Cruz leads Kasich in PA right now, so i don't know where you are getting that.And an fyi, it also looks like California will certainly be going Trump's way. take it up with Nate Silver, VB. he has Cruz as nearly a 2:1 favourite to win the state, as of today. edit: for the record, i think Kasich needs to stay in for two reasons. the first is that he has a good case to make at the convention for why he should be the nominee. the second is that he siphons votes away from Trump, which is a good thing for the GOP, imo.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 5, 2016 19:10:15 GMT -5
New York looks like it could be very important. in the sense that Trump has to win it? i agree. winning your home state is a litmus test.Currently Trump is over the 50% mark there. If he holds it, and stays above 50% some people will have to realize he is going to take the nomination. right, because Sanders winning over 70% in Vermont means that he is going to take the nomination, right?I am thinking if Kasich comes in third in Wisconsin, he will have too much pressure on him to drop out, leaving Pennsylvania plainly in Trump's column. Cruz leads Kasich in PA right now, so i don't know where you are getting that.And an fyi, it also looks like California will certainly be going Trump's way. take it up with Nate Silver, VB. he has Cruz as nearly a 2:1 favourite to win the state, as of today. edit: for the record, i think Kasich needs to stay in for two reasons. the first is that he has a good case to make at the convention for why he should be the nominee. the second is that he siphons votes away from Trump, which is a good thing for the GOP, imo. NY is important because Trump is over 50% and everyone asks why isn't he over 50% in all the state races, and claim this is one of their "litmus tests" to garner the nomination Kasich is leading Cruz in Pennsylvania. So what? Tell me who is winning? Kasich drops out and Pennsylvania buries Cruz. Cruz may be leading in Wisconsin. I can see that happening. 38% Republican Evangelical, and they have come around to accepting Cruz over Trump. Republican far right in Wisconsin is similar to right wing Minnesota voters, who are not Trump fans. I would not be surprised to see a ten percent win over Trump tonight. Whether it leads to a massive lock out of delegates for Trump, remains to be seen.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 5, 2016 19:15:14 GMT -5
take it up with Nate Silver, VB. he has Cruz as nearly a 2:1 favourite to win the state, as of today. edit: for the record, i think Kasich needs to stay in for two reasons. the first is that he has a good case to make at the convention for why he should be the nominee. the second is that he siphons votes away from Trump, which is a good thing for the GOP, imo. NY is important because Trump is over 50% and everyone asks why isn't he over 50% in all the state races, and claim this is one of their "litmus tests" to garner the nomination Kasich is leading Cruz in Pennsylvania. So what? Tell me who is winning? Kasich drops out and Pennsylvania buries Cruz. Cruz may be leading in Wisconsin. I can see that happening. 38% Republican Evangelical, and they have come around to accepting Cruz over Trump. Republican far right in Wisconsin is similar to right wing Minnesota voters, who are not Trump fans. I would not be surprised to see a ten percent win over Trump tonight. Whether it leads to a massive lock out of delegates for Trump, remains to be seen. no, Cruz is leading Kasich in PA. Trump has had ONE good poll there. bully for him. i would be surprised to see a 10% win over Trump tonight, as well. but it is not impossible. Trump is already about 50 delegates below target. i am moving him to a 1:2 longshot of getting the nomination before the convention. he has been underperforming since Super Tuesday, and i expect him to keep underperforming. edit: Trump is approximately as behind as Sanders is, but few, if any, talk about Sanders winning the nomination. well, outside of the Sanders-has-to-win-because-i-heart-him-so-much contingent, anyway.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2016 20:46:09 GMT -5
With only 19% reporting they have called Wisconsin for Cruz already? WTF?
In the 10 counties that Trump won already, he won by LANDSLIDES.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2016 20:56:59 GMT -5
Now at 23%... At least the Democrat map looks like a match to their call for Sanders (so far anyway).
Trump has more of the map in his pocket (15 counties for him compared to Cruz's 13) even though he has less of the overall vote total (at the moment).
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 5, 2016 21:06:37 GMT -5
looks like VB and i are both wrong. Cruz is going to win by double digits. Trump is getting crushed. he is going to end up getting 6 or fewer delegates. edit: so, VB, if Cruz wins with more than 50% of the vote, should Trump drop out? edit: brief recap: ARG totally blew it with their call. they are going to be off by 10% on the Democratic side, and 25% on the GOP side. they clearly messed up their sampling. honorable mention on the GOP side goes to FOX Business who called this +10 for Cruz. they got it wrong, but they got closer than anyone else. on the Democratic side, top honors to Emerson and PPP, both of whom will get this within polling error. Marquette gets an honerable mention for tracking this race for months, and also ending up within polling error, though just barely. Sanders needs to win by probably 15% to make up appreciable ground on Clinton- and he is not going to make it. Cruz needed to win by probably 15% to really put a dent in Trump's chances- and that is precisely what he did. so, this race is getting more interesting on the GOP side, and less interesting on the Democratic side.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2016 21:27:12 GMT -5
looks like VB and i are both wrong. Cruz is going to win by double digits. Trump is getting crushed. he is going to end up getting 6 or fewer delegates. edit: so, VB, if Cruz wins with more than 50% of the vote, should Trump drop out? edit: brief recap: ARG totally blew it with their call. they are going to be off by 10% on the Democratic side, and 25% on the GOP side. they clearly messed up their sampling. honorable mention on the GOP side goes to FOX Business who called this +10 for Cruz. they got it wrong, but they got closer than anyone else. on the Democratic side, top honors to Emerson and PPP, both of whom will get this within polling error. Marquette gets an honerable mention for tracking this race for months, and also ending up within polling error, though just barely. Sanders needs to win by probably 15% to make up appreciable ground on Clinton. Cruz needed to win by probably 15% to really put a dent in Trump's chances- and that is precisely what he did.so, this race is getting more interesting on the GOP side, and less interesting on the Democratic side. You are aware that the the actual complete vote count isn't in yet... right? By the time all votes are counted he may have won by 15%+... but then again... he may not. I think they "called it" too early based on the colors of the map and the number of voting precincts yet to be tabulated. ETA: I'm not saying that it's likely for Cruz to lose the state at this point... no... he's probably got this one. I just don't know if I agree with your 15% forecast this early and with the wide margin that Trump is pulling in in the districts that have been "called" in his favor.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 5, 2016 21:33:32 GMT -5
looks like VB and i are both wrong. Cruz is going to win by double digits. Trump is getting crushed. he is going to end up getting 6 or fewer delegates. edit: so, VB, if Cruz wins with more than 50% of the vote, should Trump drop out? edit: brief recap: ARG totally blew it with their call. they are going to be off by 10% on the Democratic side, and 25% on the GOP side. they clearly messed up their sampling. honorable mention on the GOP side goes to FOX Business who called this +10 for Cruz. they got it wrong, but they got closer than anyone else. on the Democratic side, top honors to Emerson and PPP, both of whom will get this within polling error. Marquette gets an honerable mention for tracking this race for months, and also ending up within polling error, though just barely. Sanders needs to win by probably 15% to make up appreciable ground on Clinton. Cruz needed to win by probably 15% to really put a dent in Trump's chances- and that is precisely what he did.so, this race is getting more interesting on the GOP side, and less interesting on the Democratic side. You are aware that the the actual complete vote count isn't in yet... right? By the time all votes are counted he may have won by 15%+... but then again... he may not. I think they "called it" too early based on the colors of the map and the number of voting precincts yet to be tabulated. i am basing this on exit polling data, Richard. i think he is going to win by more than 15%- but sure- the exit polling might be lying, and Trump could come roaring back....... but i doubt it. edit: you are correct in that Trump is strong in the North, but that is the least populated part of the state. and you are also right that i am going out on a limb in saying 15%- the modeling is showing something slightly less (like 14%).
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 5, 2016 23:18:13 GMT -5
it looks like the spreads are going to be about the same on both sides. Sanders is going to win by just under 15%, and so is Cruz.
but because the GOP side is Winner Take All, Cruz is going to get almost all of the delegates, whereas Bernie is maybe going to get 3/5ths of them, if he is lucky.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 6, 2016 12:55:46 GMT -5
new polling numbers out from McClatchy this morning. Cruz is within 5 of Trump.
note: the last two polls are REGISTERED VOTERS, not LIKELY VOTERS. i don't like those samples as much.
Trump 40 +7 Cruz 33 +13 Kasich 20
so, what we have here is continued erosion for Trump. since March 23rd, Trump is down 3%. Kasich is relatively flat during this period = +1%. he is not polling particularly well in future races, and i think it is a good time to question how helpful he is to the contest at this juncture.
Cruz is doing very well. he is up 3% during this same stretch, at his highest level of the campaign, and at a better level than anyone has done previously other than Trump.
the gap has closed 50% in the last (2) weeks. at this pace, the race will be tied before April 26th.
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Post by Value Buy on Apr 7, 2016 8:12:41 GMT -5
NY is important because Trump is over 50% and everyone asks why isn't he over 50% in all the state races, and claim this is one of their "litmus tests" to garner the nomination Kasich is leading Cruz in Pennsylvania. So what? Tell me who is winning? Kasich drops out and Pennsylvania buries Cruz. no, Cruz is leading Kasich in PA. Trump has had ONE good poll there. bully for him. i would be surprised to see a 10% win over Trump tonight, as well. but it is not impossible. Trump is already about 50 delegates below target. i am moving him to a 1:2 longshot of getting the nomination before the convention. he has been underperforming since Super Tuesday, and i expect him to keep underperforming. edit: Trump is approximately as behind as Sanders is, but few, if any, talk about Sanders winning the nomination. well, outside of the Sanders-has-to-win-because-i-heart-him-so-much contingent, anyway. Sorry about transposing the candidates. I knew you said Kasich was leading. And Trump is at 52% in New York, and yet Cruzis in the teens there and was under 50% in Wisconsin and media says it was a blowout. I guess the frontrunners are held to a higher standard by the media...... And Trump is up 6% over Cruz in California, gaining momentum since, earlier polls had Cruz leading. Trump does have a hard road ahead to take the nomination outright, but it is still within the realm of possibility. NY, Pennsylvania, Indiana and a few other eastern states should give him a heavy number of delegates. NY state looks like a 70% delegate win for Trump. Or even higher. Then it leaves it to the California outcome as the decider. You should be a much better "reader" of the California delegate outcome than I ever could be, so I defer to you on California.
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Post by happyhoix on Apr 7, 2016 9:19:49 GMT -5
So I'm seeing that Cruz isn't polling well in NY. I guess that 'NY values' comment he made months ago kind of backfired on him.
I was surprised at the big crowd at the first Trump rally in NY, but one of the talking heads on MSNBC commented that the crowd was 70% male and 90% white. Not sure what portion of the Republican voting public in NY falls into that subcategory - probably a lot.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 7, 2016 11:26:03 GMT -5
no, Cruz is leading Kasich in PA. Trump has had ONE good poll there. bully for him. i would be surprised to see a 10% win over Trump tonight, as well. but it is not impossible. Trump is already about 50 delegates below target. i am moving him to a 1:2 longshot of getting the nomination before the convention. he has been underperforming since Super Tuesday, and i expect him to keep underperforming. edit: Trump is approximately as behind as Sanders is, but few, if any, talk about Sanders winning the nomination. well, outside of the Sanders-has-to-win-because-i-heart-him-so-much contingent, anyway. Sorry about transposing the candidates. I knew you said Kasich was leading. you did it again. Cruz is leading.And Trump is at 52% in New York, and yet Cruzis in the teens there and was under 50% in Wisconsin and media says it was a blowout. I guess the frontrunners are held to a higher standard by the media...... of course. that makes sense, right?And Trump is up 6% over Cruz in California, gaining momentum since, earlier polls had Cruz leading. i never said he wasn't leading in the polls. i said that 538 has Cruz as the favourite.Trump does have a hard road ahead to take the nomination outright, but it is still within the realm of possibility. i never claimed otherwise. i simply claimed that i don't think he gets there by the convention. edit: i give him a 35% chance, as of today. NY, Pennsylvania, Indiana and a few other eastern states should give him a heavy number of delegates. NY state looks like a 70% delegate win for Trump. Or even higher. possibly. it depends on whether Cruz AND Kasich get over 20%, one of them does, or neither do.Then it leaves it to the California outcome as the decider. You should be a much better "reader" of the California delegate outcome than I ever could be, so I defer to you on California. i am deferring to 538 as of now, where they are currently showing Cruz as a 5:3 favourite. NOTE: Trump has to win about 60% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination. he has only won about 45% of them so far, so i think this is far more unlikely than even 538 does, especially since his numbers are falling, not rising. he is now 59 delegates short of a winning pace. if he keeps going this way, he will be lucky to get 1100.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 7, 2016 11:28:35 GMT -5
So I'm seeing that Cruz isn't polling well in NY. I guess that 'NY values' comment he made months ago kind of backfired on him.
I was surprised at the big crowd at the first Trump rally in NY, but one of the talking heads on MSNBC commented that the crowd was 70% male and 90% white. Not sure what portion of the Republican voting public in NY falls into that subcategory - probably a lot.
NY is pretty much the opposite of Cruz Country. but Kasich should do well there, if he can get his act together.
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Post by happyhoix on Apr 7, 2016 12:24:28 GMT -5
Here is very much IMHO idea of what will happen:
Trump gets to the convention without enough delegates, and in the first delegate count he loses.
Trump stamps out of there claiming he was robbed, stirs up some chaos for a few days, then takes his toys home and do what he really likes doing - sitting at his big desk, writing in his gold pens on his special Trump stationary, running his business and scheming on new ways to get free publicity.
Because he never had any intention of winning this thing, only the free publicity.
After that I'm not sure - will Kaisch or Cruz attempt to seize the convention, or will an outside step in? To me, as long as Trump isn't the candidate, I'm happy.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 7, 2016 13:11:09 GMT -5
Here is very much IMHO idea of what will happen:
Trump gets to the convention without enough delegates, and in the first delegate count he loses.
Trump stamps out of there claiming he was robbed, stirs up some chaos for a few days, then takes his toys home and do what he really likes doing - sitting at his big desk, writing in his gold pens on his special Trump stationary, running his business and scheming on new ways to get free publicity.
Because he never had any intention of winning this thing, only the free publicity.
After that I'm not sure - will Kaisch or Cruz attempt to seize the convention, or will an outside step in? To me, as long as Trump isn't the candidate, I'm happy.
as i said before, if Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, i don't think he wins on the second. what Trump (and most others) fail to recognize is that delegates are chosen by the party, not by the voters. therefore, they are biased toward party concerns. i doubt ANYONE thinks that Trump is looking out for the best interests of the party- and that view will be reflected in the delegation. delegates are bound ONLY on the first vote. after that, they can express their interests, which are highly partisan (and therefore anti-Trump). if Trump fails to win the first ballot, he will fail every succeeding ballot.
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djAdvocate
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only posting when the mood strikes me.
Joined: Jun 21, 2011 12:33:54 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 7, 2016 13:19:04 GMT -5
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