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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 24, 2016 10:33:20 GMT -5
VERY interesting polling today. this is amazing: Trump 43 +13 Cruz 30 +11 Kasich 19 ok, so here we see something really interesting, imo. a few interesting things. first of all, let me acknowledge and congratulate Trump, who has indeed gone up about another 10% since "everyone" got out of the race other than these three. secondly, let me acknowledge and congratulate Kasich, who has also gone up about 10% since "everyone" got out of the race other than these three. but finally, this is spectacularly good news for Cruz. for the 3rd and 4th time in the last NINE polls, he is within single digits of Trump, but that is not where the good news ends. and the good news doesn't end with him breaking 30% on average for the first time- only the second candidate to do that this cycle (and, like Kasich and Trump, a 10% gain in the last (3) weeks. no, the spectacularly good news is that he got 38% in the latest poll- which is far more support than i would have ever believed possible. i have already pontificated about Trump's chances for the nomination, so i am not going to double down on that now. instead, i will just say that my 60% chance that he won't have enough delegates in mid-June just got a lot more support. The 38% was from a fox poll, and let's not forget, Fox is still trying to bring Trump down. Since you mentioned their poll, please look at the Monmouth poll. I think they have been rather accurate in their polling for the most part, where Fox has been all over the board. Frankly I was more concerned over the Wisconsin poll released that shows Cruz up over Trump, AND it looks like Governor Walker is backing Cruz based on his latest statement, even though he did not officially endorse him. i saw that WI poll, but it is within error. i think WI has a good chance of going for Cruz. i doubt that there is bias in the FOX poll, but we'll see. there might be, but i doubt it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 24, 2016 10:34:40 GMT -5
i can almost guarantee that the race won't be decided before June on the GOP side.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 24, 2016 11:14:46 GMT -5
PA is now within polling error for KASICH, according to one survey. edit: i was actually really concerned about this state going for Trump months ago. now- not so worried.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 29, 2016 18:42:44 GMT -5
new poll shows Trump +10%, which is about where he is polling on average:
Trump 42 +11 Cruz 32 +13 Kasich 19
Kasich and Trump have stalled out, but Cruz continues to rise, adding another 4% in the last week. with (4) weeks to go before the next big primary haul, he might still catch Trump.
Optimus just did a MASSIVE survey of Wisconsin, and found Trump up 2%, with a MOE of 1.1%. this is the third poll in a row that shows this contest in single digits, and the 7th in the last 8. this one is too close to call. i find it hard to believe that Trump will in this one, but then again, i don't think this state is especially favorable for Cruz, either.
New York is a much more confusing picture. TWO of the last three polls show something very different from the third. here is what the average of the two similar polls shows:
Trump 48 Kasich 21 Cruz 14
and yeah, if you are adding, that is a lot of undecided. so, Trump clearly leads here, but i am not sure by how much. could be 40. could be 10. these numbers are a big deal because NY has a 20% threshold and NO CEILING. so long as one of the other two candidates cracks that level (preferably both), Trump will be forced to divide the winnings among them.
right now, Kasich is trending sharply higher. i would be surprised if he didn't get 20%, but there is really not enough polling data to conclusively say that.
the NY primary is 3 weeks out. it will be a defining moment for this race of Trump gets all 95 delegates.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 30, 2016 10:14:27 GMT -5
edit: just a quick note: Wisconsin is basically a 3 way tie in the Optimus poll.
all three candidates are within 4%, with KASICH in second place (surprisingly). i said this one is too close to call earlier, but i am giving Cruz the edge here, just because he has been "working the state" longer- even though i think that it is more "Kasich Country".
should be a very interesting race- tune in next Tuesday!
edit: new poll out today shows Cruz +10%. here are the averages:
Cruz 35 +3 Trump 32 +9 Kasich 23
Cruz has some momentum. he has polled above 25% in the last (4) surveys, having NEVER polled above that level prior. Kasich also has some momentum. he has polled above 15% in the last (4) surveys, having never polled above 8% previously. Trump is stalled out at around 30-35%.
it is possible, though unlikely, that Trump could come in 3rd, here- which would definitely not send the right signal to his fanbase.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 31, 2016 14:44:56 GMT -5
a new poll out today from Pew, and it is right in line with recent polling:
Trump 42 +10 Cruz 32 +13 Kasich 19
since March 22nd, Trump has fallen about 1%, Cruz is +2%, and Kasich is even. not much movement. Cruz is now slightly ahead in Wisconsin, and should win it. he is also pulling ahead in California. the problem remains NY, where Kasich AND Cruz are both struggling to reach the 20% floor needed to get delegates. they had better do it, or they might never get to the convention.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 1, 2016 10:27:05 GMT -5
i think Wisconsin might turn out to be very consequential. there is a fairly large delegate haul for both Democrats and Republicans, and this is kind of the middle of the race, so it will send a signal about how the second half is likely to go. for Trump, this might signal that this thing is going all the way to the convention. for Clinton, this might signal that this is going all the way to June. i might even start a thread on it, if there is enough interest.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Apr 1, 2016 10:35:24 GMT -5
i think Wisconsin might turn out to be very consequential. there is a fairly large delegate haul for both Democrats and Republicans, and this is kind of the middle of the race, so it will send a signal about how the second half is likely to go. for Trump, this might signal that this thing is going all the way to the convention. for Clinton, this might signal that this is going all the way to June. i might even start a thread on it, if there is enough interest. wisconsin is very much a split party state right now, at least with regards to our governor. I haven't looked recently for polls and I don't know how that crosses to Presidential elections though. But the Republicans adore Walker and the Democrats hate him. There's almost no crossover.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 1, 2016 10:37:15 GMT -5
i think Wisconsin might turn out to be very consequential. there is a fairly large delegate haul for both Democrats and Republicans, and this is kind of the middle of the race, so it will send a signal about how the second half is likely to go. for Trump, this might signal that this thing is going all the way to the convention. for Clinton, this might signal that this is going all the way to June. i might even start a thread on it, if there is enough interest. wisconsin is very much a split party state right now, at least with regards to our governor. I haven't looked recently for polls and I don't know how that crosses to Presidential elections though. But the Republicans adore Walker and the Democrats hate him. There's almost no crossover. this is kinda why i think Wisconsin is interesting. it mirrors what is going on nationally. if Cruz CLOBBERS Trump and Sanders CLOBBERS Clinton, they are in for a long, hard struggle for the nomination. i think Clinton is ready for that. i think Trump is utterly unprepared for it. if you read this thread, and the Trump thread, you will see people saying "it's over" back in JANUARY. they are going to be really surprised when this is NOT over in June.
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Post by happyhoix on Apr 1, 2016 13:36:37 GMT -5
i think Wisconsin might turn out to be very consequential. there is a fairly large delegate haul for both Democrats and Republicans, and this is kind of the middle of the race, so it will send a signal about how the second half is likely to go. for Trump, this might signal that this thing is going all the way to the convention. for Clinton, this might signal that this is going all the way to June. i might even start a thread on it, if there is enough interest. wisconsin is very much a split party state right now, at least with regards to our governor. I haven't looked recently for polls and I don't know how that crosses to Presidential elections though. But the Republicans adore Walker and the Democrats hate him. There's almost no crossover. What impact will your governor supporting Cruz have in the vote, do you think? I think I saw that Republicans approve of Walker by 80%, so do you think that will sway voters to vote for Cruz?
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Apr 1, 2016 13:36:51 GMT -5
I don't know that Sanders is gonna clobber Hilary or not. I don't much want to vote for Hilary but I really don't think Sanders is going to accomplish anything even if the Democrats sweep the elections.
I do expect Cruz to clobber Trump. My dh heard something about Trump getting 9 delegates vs my hearing about 3 delagates. He's considering not casting a vote at all for the Presidential election and voting only in the other elections on the ballot.
The voter ID stuff became effective too. We may make the news for issues on that.
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Post by happyhoix on Apr 1, 2016 13:38:30 GMT -5
wisconsin is very much a split party state right now, at least with regards to our governor. I haven't looked recently for polls and I don't know how that crosses to Presidential elections though. But the Republicans adore Walker and the Democrats hate him. There's almost no crossover. this is kinda why i think Wisconsin is interesting. it mirrors what is going on nationally. if Cruz CLOBBERS Trump and Sanders CLOBBERS Clinton, they are in for a long, hard struggle for the nomination. i think Clinton is ready for that. i think Trump is utterly unprepared for it. if you read this thread, and the Trump thread, you will see people saying "it's over" back in JANUARY. they are going to be really surprised when this is NOT over in June. I heard one talking head lately saying that 2 or 3 primary state losses in a row would topple Trump. That Trump had the momentum, but he's peaked and it wouldn't take much to unseat him, and once the tide starts turning it would be a flood.
I don't know, though. Talking heads are a dime a dozen.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Apr 1, 2016 13:39:17 GMT -5
wisconsin is very much a split party state right now, at least with regards to our governor. I haven't looked recently for polls and I don't know how that crosses to Presidential elections though. But the Republicans adore Walker and the Democrats hate him. There's almost no crossover. What impact will your governor supporting Cruz have in the vote, do you think? I think I saw that Republicans approve of Walker by 80%, so do you think that will sway voters to vote for Cruz? I don't know. I'd have expected Kasich to do well here instead of Cruz but clearly I'm wrong about that.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 1, 2016 14:59:07 GMT -5
this is kinda why i think Wisconsin is interesting. it mirrors what is going on nationally. if Cruz CLOBBERS Trump and Sanders CLOBBERS Clinton, they are in for a long, hard struggle for the nomination. i think Clinton is ready for that. i think Trump is utterly unprepared for it. if you read this thread, and the Trump thread, you will see people saying "it's over" back in JANUARY. they are going to be really surprised when this is NOT over in June. I heard one talking head lately saying that 2 or 3 primary state losses in a row would topple Trump. That Trump had the momentum, but he's peaked and it wouldn't take much to unseat him, and once the tide starts turning it would be a flood.
I don't know, though. Talking heads are a dime a dozen.
this is kinda uncharted territory, and i won't presume to speculate. his voters seem pretty solid to me, and i don't think he is going to die quietly.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 1, 2016 14:59:48 GMT -5
What impact will your governor supporting Cruz have in the vote, do you think? I think I saw that Republicans approve of Walker by 80%, so do you think that will sway voters to vote for Cruz? I don't know. I'd have expected Kasich to do well here instead of Cruz but clearly I'm wrong about that. ditto- and make no mistake, if Cruz wins, it will lend a lot to his argument that he needs Kasich OUT.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 1, 2016 15:01:16 GMT -5
wisconsin is very much a split party state right now, at least with regards to our governor. I haven't looked recently for polls and I don't know how that crosses to Presidential elections though. But the Republicans adore Walker and the Democrats hate him. There's almost no crossover. What impact will your governor supporting Cruz have in the vote, do you think? I think I saw that Republicans approve of Walker by 80%, so do you think that will sway voters to vote for Cruz? according to Paul and Virgil, such things are the "kiss of death", but i think they are underestimating the history and power of partisan politics.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2016 19:05:58 GMT -5
i think Wisconsin might turn out to be very consequential. there is a fairly large delegate haul for both Democrats and Republicans, and this is kind of the middle of the race, so it will send a signal about how the second half is likely to go. for Trump, this might signal that this thing is going all the way to the convention. for Clinton, this might signal that this is going all the way to June. i might even start a thread on it, if there is enough interest. The dem side is worrying me lately. I won't feel comfortable until I know it won't be Sanders vs Trump in the general. Sanders is getting traction in WI and NY, which makes the following look more possible than I would like. fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-get-bernie-sanders-988-more-delegates/
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 1, 2016 22:41:51 GMT -5
i think Wisconsin might turn out to be very consequential. there is a fairly large delegate haul for both Democrats and Republicans, and this is kind of the middle of the race, so it will send a signal about how the second half is likely to go. for Trump, this might signal that this thing is going all the way to the convention. for Clinton, this might signal that this is going all the way to June. i might even start a thread on it, if there is enough interest. The dem side is worrying me lately. I won't feel comfortable until I know it won't be Sanders vs Trump in the general. Sanders is getting traction in WI and NY, which makes the following look more possible than I would like. fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-get-bernie-sanders-988-more-delegates/clinton is more than 80% favored to win the nomination. bernie needs to clobber her in WI, then win NY if he is to have any chance at all.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 3, 2016 15:45:49 GMT -5
i have been thinking for a while that if Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, he is going to lose. the only reason i have not mentioned it here is that Paul and others have been ranting about how this would be a complete farce on the part of the GOP, and that it would destroy the party. i have argued against both. it is not a farce to deny a guy who got 40% of the vote the nomination. it is reasonable. and this sort of thing rarely destroys parties. but this morning, lo and behold, i had someone articulate my argument, and it was none other than Nate Silver: fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/the reasoning is that support among the DELEGATION for Trump is weaker than it is out in the public (where it is not even at 50%), and that therefore he is very unlikely to win the nomination on a second, third or "Nth" ballot. i think that is precisely right. i think that if Trump loses on the first ballot (60% likely, imo), he is going to lose. now, did i expect him to lose this way? hell no. not until recently. i expected him to lose in the primary. i think that Silver is right- if he wins on the first ballot, he wins. if he loses on the first ballot, he loses. and right now, he is only about 40% likely to win on the first ballot. that having been said, Trump got some good news in PA- the latest poll has him +15%, which puts him @ 5:2 favourite there. and he got some bad news in WI, where all five of the latest polls have him trailing Cruz.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2016 17:20:34 GMT -5
I think if Trump gets the most delegates and does not get the nomination, it would cause many republicans to just not vote. It would cost them elections in congress. The tea party was corrupted by national republican leaders, but the ideas behind it still exist. I think many of those people and those ideas would leave the republican party. They might not have anywhere to go, but they can still leave. If something is not working and shows itself to be completely broken, common sense says to accept that after a while. The republican party is a party of war and cronyism. Hopefully democrats will get exposed as the same soon.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 3, 2016 19:07:11 GMT -5
I think if Trump gets the most delegates and does not get the nomination, it would cause many republicans to just not vote. It would cost them elections in congress. The tea party was corrupted by national republican leaders, but the ideas behind it still exist. I think many of those people and those ideas would leave the republican party. They might not have anywhere to go, but they can still leave. If something is not working and shows itself to be completely broken, common sense says to accept that after a while. The republican party is a party of war and cronyism. Hopefully democrats will get exposed as the same soon. there are a whole host of things that might happen, and these are certainly among them. i am not convinced that Trump voters are all that reliable anyway. only half of his voters who voted for him in the primary are committed to voting for him in the GE. getting 1/2 of 1/3 of 1/3 of the votes is not going to win him anything, so i don't know what the GOP loses by having the Trump voters stay home. there is another opinion about those that are likely to show up if Trump WINS the nomination- and that is that people who loathe him, both on the GOP and Democratic side, would not only vote against him, but vote against any candidate that appears to support him. so, viewed this way, i think it is a lose/lose for the GOP. which is precisely why Clinton is probably cackling in her mirthless laugh at regular intervals as this unfolds.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 3, 2016 19:10:55 GMT -5
and again, the goal is to win the MAJORITY of the delegates, not "the most".
the GOP can (and probably WILL) argue that this election is Trump -vs- "The Establishment", and "The Establishment" is actually winning. not by much, but by a small amount. "Everyone other than Trump" got 800k MORE votes so far in the primary. saying that Trump "got the most votes" and therefore should win the primary makes little sense in a system that demands a majority victor- and that is precisely the system we have.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2016 19:20:23 GMT -5
I think if Trump gets the most delegates and does not get the nomination, it would cause many republicans to just not vote. It would cost them elections in congress. The tea party was corrupted by national republican leaders, but the ideas behind it still exist. I think many of those people and those ideas would leave the republican party. They might not have anywhere to go, but they can still leave. If something is not working and shows itself to be completely broken, common sense says to accept that after a while. The republican party is a party of war and cronyism. Hopefully democrats will get exposed as the same soon. there are a whole host of things that might happen, Really, the future might happen different ways? and these are certainly among them. i am not convinced that Trump voters are all that reliable anyway. What kind of comment is that? It says nothing other then you dont have an opinion on what you are saying. only half of his voters who voted for him in the primary are committed to voting for him in the GE. getting 1/2 of 1/3 of 1/3 of the votes is not going to win him anything, so i don't know what the GOP loses by having the Trump voters stay home. They lose votes. Could you quote whoever's opinion this is instead of paraphrasing it?there is another opinion about those that are likely to show up if Trump WINS the nomination- and that is that people who loathe him, both on the GOP and Democratic side, would not only vote against him, but vote against any candidate that appears to support him. There are dozens of other opinions. Again what are you saying other then nothing.so, viewed this way, i think it is a lose/lose for the GOP. which is precisely why Clinton is probably cackling in her mirthless laugh at regular intervals as this unfolds. Why would Clinton want the republican party to disintegrate? The democratic party is 95% the same. Maybe there are opinions about that also.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 3, 2016 19:21:53 GMT -5
i am not convinced that Trump voters are all that reliable anyway. What kind of comment is that? It says nothing other then you dont have an opinion on what you are saying. the kind of comment that is based on several polls. now, of course, it is possible that the polls are wrong.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 3, 2016 19:24:03 GMT -5
there is another opinion about those that are likely to show up if Trump WINS the nomination- and that is that people who loathe him, both on the GOP and Democratic side, would not only vote against him, but vote against any candidate that appears to support him. There are dozens of other opinions. Again what are you saying other then nothing.i am saying that it is just as likely to cost the GOP on down ticket stuff (like Senate races) as it is to get them anything. this is not just my opinion, btw. there is significant data to support it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 3, 2016 19:25:00 GMT -5
so, viewed this way, i think it is a lose/lose for the GOP. which is precisely why Clinton is probably cackling in her mirthless laugh at regular intervals as this unfolds. Why would Clinton want the republican party to disintegrate? it serves her personal ambitions. nothing more.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2016 19:29:36 GMT -5
i am saying that it is just as likely to cost the GOP on down ticket stuff (like Senate races) as it is to get them anything. this is not just my opinion, btw. there is significant data to support it. If that is your opinion why dont you step up and say that is your opinion? Instead of mickey mousing it by saying some opinion or whatever horse shit way you equivocated what you said?
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 3, 2016 19:38:20 GMT -5
i am saying that it is just as likely to cost the GOP on down ticket stuff (like Senate races) as it is to get them anything. this is not just my opinion, btw. there is significant data to support it. If that is your opinion why dont you step up and say that is your opinion? i DID say it was my opinion.Instead of mickey mousing it by saying some opinion or whatever way you equivocated what you said? equivocated? i am unequivocal about that remark. it is BOTH my opinion, and the opinion of others that if Trump is the nominee, is is a big problem for the GOP in down ticket races. now, not EVERYONE thinks that, obviously. Trump certainly doesn't. but i have long ceased caring about HIS opinion of things. would you mind not using profane language in your replies to me? tyia. edit: profanity removed.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2016 19:43:29 GMT -5
If that is your opinion why dont you step up and say that is your opinion? i DID say it was my opinion.Instead of mickey mousing it by saying some opinion or whatever horse shit way you equivocated what you said? equivocated? i am unequivocal about that remark. it is BOTH my opinion, and the opinion of others that if Trump is the nominee, is is a big problem for the GOP in down ticket races. now, not EVERYONE thinks that, obviously. Trump certainly doesn't. but i have long ceased caring about HIS opinion of things. would you mind not using profane language in your replies to me? tyia. I think I am within the terms here on the board. If not hopefully a moderator will come by and let me know. I think your argument is ignorant. Horse shit was describing your argument. Would you mind not quoting me and saying there are other opinions? There are 7 billion people in the world, there are other opinions on everything.
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Post by djAdvocate on Apr 3, 2016 19:51:55 GMT -5
equivocated? i am unequivocal about that remark. it is BOTH my opinion, and the opinion of others that if Trump is the nominee, is is a big problem for the GOP in down ticket races. now, not EVERYONE thinks that, obviously. Trump certainly doesn't. but i have long ceased caring about HIS opinion of things. would you mind not using profane language in your replies to me? tyia. I think I am within the terms here on the board. of course. that is why i asked.If not hopefully a moderator will come by and let me know. I think your argument is ignorant. that's cool. you're entitled to your opinion. here is a similarly ignorant argument from those imbiciles over at the Washington Post:
www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/24/gop-elites-think-trump-will-be-a-disaster-for-the-party-gop-voters-disagree/
oh, and it is not just them making this up, either. a number of party leaders are quoted there. if Trump wins, he gets his ass kicked by Clinton, but that has major consequences down-ticket. this is the considered opinion of GOP leadership, me, and many more of those 7 billion others.
Would you mind not quoting me and saying there are other opinions? to paraphrase you, i think i am within the terms of this board insodoing.There are 7 billion people in the world, there is (sic) other opinions on everything. apparently so.
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