Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 18, 2016 9:37:46 GMT -5
Saw a pundit on one of the national cable news networks today. He claims both political parties will have brokered conventions this fall. At this point if Trump wins South Carolina, after mid March I think all state primaries are all "winner take all votes" on the Republican side. He will be hard to stop. He could have it won by end of March. what pundit said this, so i can laugh at him or her later? I have to be honest. I did not recognize him. Anyone catch Joe Kleine this morning? He called Trump a lizard brain. This is what Democratic protaganists are now relegated to doing to defeat Trump. It's all over in the Republican race.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2016 10:13:45 GMT -5
what pundit said this, so i can laugh at him or her later? I have to be honest. I did not recognize him. Anyone catch Joe Kleine this morning? He called Trump a lizard brain. This is what Democratic protaganists are now relegated to doing to defeat Trump. It's all over in the Republican race. i am still betting that Trump loses the primary. the difference is that before i really didn't know who was going to take him down.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 19, 2016 17:20:25 GMT -5
39 minutes ago Tennesseer said: ken a.k.a OMK Avatar 45 minutes ago ken a.k.a OMK said: Trump is not good. He's evil. He also cheated on his first wife by taking a mistress (Marla Maples). Evangelicals must be okay with cheating husbands and mistress stuff. And before someone brings up Bill Clinton, the Clintons appear to have worked out their marital problems. Trump dd not.
Donald Trump’s Mistress Breaks Her Silence on Their Scandalous May-December Relationship
i really don't care for this narrative of why Trump is successful.
he could be a blow-up doll this year, and get 34% of the vote.
this is not about policy with Trump. just listen to the exit polling interviews. to a PERSON the people that vote for him are voting AGAINST THE PARTY.
that is not going to win him the nomination.
c&P at the behest of VB.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 20, 2016 21:42:43 GMT -5
www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/20/trump_genius_pundits_who_say_its_a_three_way_tie_without_lower_tier_dont_realized_id_get_those_votes_too.htmli am betting the pundits are right and he is wrong. my reasoning is thus: so far, several candidates have dropped out, and Trump is still below his polling peak (about 36%). and sure- THEORETICALLY, he could go higher if someone like Carson dropped out. in fact, i have argued that he probably will. the question is: will he get back to 36% again? personally, i doubt it. i think he is going to get what he is getting and he will have to win with 33%. if he can do that, then he will win the nomination. at least that is what i have been contending. and yeah, i could be dead wrong. we'll see. for the record, if i am right, i am no genius. i am just a careful observer of Trump, his voters, and this race.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 20, 2016 21:43:14 GMT -5
NOTE: i find it interesting that Trump is so caught up in the media aspect of this race. but i guess it makes sense, given who he is.
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Post by dondub on Feb 22, 2016 2:15:55 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 22, 2016 20:13:25 GMT -5
nevada caucuses are tomorrow. my prediction:
Trump wins again, and again by less than 10% Rubio comes in well above Cruz, solidly in 2nd Carson and Kasich languish in the single digits.
to the poster that predicted Kasich is in to Michigan, i agree. he is.
however, i am no longer certain that Dumpster Fire is going to win all of the primaries on Super Tuesday. i will start a thread on Super Tuesday after Nevada is over.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2016 20:54:02 GMT -5
What does percentage matter in winner takes all?
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 22, 2016 20:59:39 GMT -5
What does percentage matter in winner takes all? most states are not winner take all. i already posted on this subject a page or two back.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 22, 2016 21:03:53 GMT -5
What does percentage matter in winner takes all? most states are not winner take all. i already posted on this subject a page or two back. I mean like really, weren't you taking notes?
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 22, 2016 21:06:35 GMT -5
most states are not winner take all. i already posted on this subject a page or two back. I mean like really, weren't you taking notes? i swear. this is my lecture hall, and all of the f(*king notes are published. what gives ok, FINE, here you go again....
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 22, 2016 21:13:20 GMT -5
Florida is clearly the biggest prize. huge, juicy and winner take all.
Ohio is also big. i can see why Kasich wants to stay in for that.
and both make sense, since they are swing states. disproportionately favor the winner.
edit: with this many candidates in the race, very few of the proportional/WTA states will trigger.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 23, 2016 12:36:55 GMT -5
Trump is a 3:2 favourite to win NV today. Rubio is a 1:4 longshot.
if Rubio wins, Trump is going to have his hands full on Super Tuesday.
edit: if this goes as predicted, Rubio will be in 2nd place on delegate count after today. he is behind Cruz right now.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 24, 2016 8:22:25 GMT -5
Trump is a 3:2 favourite to win NV today. Rubio is a 1:4 longshot. if Rubio wins, Trump is going to have his hands full on Super Tuesday. edit: if this goes as predicted, Rubio will be in 2nd place on delegate count after today. he is behind Cruz right now. Good call on the first part. Rubio was a definite longshot Delegate numbers were a little different. Rubio and Cruz both picked up five delegates, so Cruz, although third matched Rubio in delegates. Trump received 13 delegates.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 24, 2016 8:29:57 GMT -5
Nevada Republican caucus Another record turn out. Trump 46% Rubio 24% Cruz 22% So much for a ceiling on Trump's voting numbers. Evangelicals--check College educated--check non college educated--check Caucasian--super check Hispanic--check--in the mid 40 percentages Do not have a female number to post....... Trump won in all categories. Rubio's lone string of hope was in people who just made up their minds in the last five days. He actually beat Trump handily. Looks like he did not pick up any Bush backers after Jeb backed out. The field has narrowed the candidates, but Trump is gaining steam. Cruz is all but dead in the water.
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Post by Tennesseer on Feb 24, 2016 8:49:29 GMT -5
When is Dr. Ben Carson going to put the defib paddles down and call the time of death of his campaign. It died quite a while ago.
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Post by Opti on Feb 24, 2016 8:59:46 GMT -5
I am somewhat surprised Trump got so many Hispanic votes, however a Google search showed 59% of the Hispanics in Nevada are native born.
To break a ceiling on the numbers, Trump would need to win over 53% or wherever his dislike poll numbers put him. 46% is high, but not a rule breaker,
quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/32000.html
Las Vegas population is around 600K out of the 2.8 million est. total population. Per the below, Nevada has 59% native born Hispanics compared to an average of 37% in the US. Population and National Origin
U.S. Rank 2
Total Hispanic Population in Nevada 738,000 14 Hispanics as Percent of State Population 27% 5 Hispanics as Percent of U.S. Hispanic Population 1.4% 14 Native-Born Hispanics (Percent of Hispanics) 59% 37
Nevada - State and County Databases | Pew Research Center
www.pewhispanic.org/states/state/nv/
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 10:51:53 GMT -5
Nevada Republican caucus Another record turn out. Trump 46% Rubio 24% Cruz 22% So much for a ceiling on Trump's voting numbers. i find that meme tiresome. with only one candidate running, Trump's ceiling would presumably be 100%. this result is surprising TO ME, however, and good for Trump. edit: here is the last CNN/Orc poll: CNN/ORC 2/10 - 2/15 245 LV 6.5 45 17 19 5 7 1 Trump +26 this was a very prescient poll. everyone came in within polling error. (Cruz is 17% in this poll, if you were wondering) well done CNN/ORC!!! there were only TWO polls done in the last month in NV, and this was one of them. it was done with 245 likely voters. and CNN is presumed "liberal" by some of y'alls. so, no more of this bullshit about scientific polls being biased, or having insufficent sample size. they do the best they can, and sometimes, they are SPOT ON. you can ignore the data if you like, but don't claim that "nobody thought...." without checking, first. edit: the last 8% undecided was split evenly between Cruz and Rubio. Cruz, Rubio and Trump each took an additional 1% from Carson and Kasich.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 10:52:59 GMT -5
I am somewhat surprised Trump got so many Hispanic votes, however a Google search showed 59% of the Hispanics in Nevada are native born. Hispanics love TV personalities. that is how Schwarzenegger won California.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 10:54:27 GMT -5
When is Dr. Ben Carson going to put the defib paddles down and call the time of death of his campaign. It died quite a while ago. i would like him and Kasich to get out, as i have said repeatedly. but that would not have helped Cruz and Rubio in Nevada.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 24, 2016 11:33:37 GMT -5
When is Dr. Ben Carson going to put the defib paddles down and call the time of death of his campaign. It died quite a while ago. I think it will be when his publisher convinces him it is hurting his book sales.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 24, 2016 17:41:01 GMT -5
Maybe cable news does get some things right after all.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 24, 2016 20:12:48 GMT -5
Maybe cable news does get some things right after all. they were wrong after the first primary.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2016 20:18:55 GMT -5
There as great turn out last night, but caucus always have small numbers. 538 was saying Hispanics, all count was like 100-200 people range, so the stats aren't necessarily representative, margins of error was 10+pt ...
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 25, 2016 10:08:51 GMT -5
There as great turn out last night, but caucus always have small numbers. 538 was saying Hispanics, all count was like 100-200 people range, so the stats aren't necessarily representative, margins of error was 10+pt ... You as well a few others here, just keep believing Trump will collapse. Keep it up, move along, nothing to see here.........
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 25, 2016 10:12:13 GMT -5
Maybe cable news does get some things right after all. they were wrong after the first primary. Yep, because they hated Trump and were out to bury him. Since then, they basically have called it, except of course, for NBC which also owns MSNBC You are correct about CNN nailing it in the polls. Then after the Nevada caucus they spent hours on the air on what Republicans have to do to bury Trump on Super Tuesday.......
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 25, 2016 10:18:38 GMT -5
... Then after the Nevada caucus they spent hours on the air on what Republicans have to do to bury Trump on Super Tuesday....... Here is a challenge I offer you VB: what topic is there to fill the 24/7 airspace other than Trump that will bring in a large enough audience to satisfy advertisers?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2016 10:31:40 GMT -5
There as great turn out last night, but caucus always have small numbers. 538 was saying Hispanics, all count was like 100-200 people range, so the stats aren't necessarily representative, margins of error was 10+pt ... You as well a few others here, just keep believing Trump will collapse. Keep it up, move along, nothing to see here......... I don't think he will collapse necessarily, at least not in primary. But I wouldn't say he is 'winning hispanics' based on the Nevada data. That was the statement I was making. I had thought it was rather straightforward.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2016 10:34:25 GMT -5
In case you haven noticed, it's pretty much Republicans running scared as shit over Trump right now. If he gets to a similar position in the general I might be up in arms. As it is currently I'm mostly just sitting quietly incredulous in my corner.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 25, 2016 11:00:35 GMT -5
they were wrong after the first primary. Yep, because they hated Trump and were out to bury him. i was talking about Halperin, but using your pronoun. Halperin doesn't want to bury Trump. more like marry him. serious fanboy.Since then, they basically have called it, except of course, for NBC which also owns MSNBC You are correct about CNN nailing it in the polls. Then after the Nevada caucus they spent hours on the air on what Republicans have to do to bury Trump on Super Tuesday....... right. them and everyone else. no bias there.
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