dondub
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Post by dondub on Feb 9, 2016 12:01:51 GMT -5
Article Five of the United States Constitution detailed the two-step process for amending the nation's frame of government. Amendments must be properly Proposed and Ratified before becoming operative. This process was designed to strike a balance between the excesses of constant change and inflexibility.[1] An amendment may be proposed and sent to the states for ratification by either: The United States Congress, whenever a two-thirds majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives deem it necessary; ORA national convention, called by Congress for this purpose, on the application of the legislatures of two-thirds (presently 34) of the states.
To become part of the Constitution, an amendment must be ratified by either (as determined by Congress): The legislatures of three-fourths (presently 38) of the states, within the stipulated time period—if any;
ORState ratifying conventions in three-fourths (presently 38) of the states, within the stipulated time period—if any. Upon being properly ratified, an amendment becomes an operative addition to the Constitution
So we start out with the original progressive butchers, the writers and ratifiers of the Constitution and Article Five. Then, as time passes, all of these 2/3rds and 3/4 majorities of messed up progressive senators, congressmen, state legislatures just screwing it up. Especially disturbing for many are those that gave voting rights to women and minorities. Our great country has been going down hill ever since!
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Feb 9, 2016 12:57:04 GMT -5
So how is Trump expected to do in SC?
On the one hand, I know he has been courting the evangelicals, of which there are many in SC.
On the other hand, Southerners do not like big mouth, arrogant Yankees.
I could see SC leaning more towards Cruz, if they weren't put off by his very un Christian behavior in starting rumors about Carson dropping out during the Iowa caucuses.
I would think Bush might do better in SC, IMHO. But that's me guessing, not looking at any polls.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 9, 2016 14:25:30 GMT -5
So how is Trump expected to do in SC?
On the one hand, I know he has been courting the evangelicals, of which there are many in SC.
On the other hand, Southerners do not like big mouth, arrogant Yankees.
I could see SC leaning more towards Cruz, if they weren't put off by his very un Christian behavior in starting rumors about Carson dropping out during the Iowa caucuses.
I would think Bush might do better in SC, IMHO. But that's me guessing, not looking at any polls. i think it is to early to formulate expectations, honestly. he is in a good position to win RIGHT NOW. but the election is not RIGHT NOW.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 9, 2016 16:18:47 GMT -5
dj, the favorability ratings were only for the Republican voters in New Hamphire.
Sorry I was not more specific.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 11, 2016 0:30:37 GMT -5
ok, so Christie and Fiorina are out.
that will change things a bit.
the Christie vote will probably go to either Kasich or Rubio. the Fiorina vote almost certainly goes to Trump.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 11, 2016 0:43:45 GMT -5
... the Fiorina vote almost certainly goes to Trump. Not Cruz? She seemed extreme partisan.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 11, 2016 0:45:24 GMT -5
this is Rubio's response to his getting his ass handed to him in NH, and the critique which Christie leveled against him: www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/10/marco_rubio_the_media_coverage_over_the_past_72_hours_has_been_very_negative.htmlthere are two huge problems with this reply. one is that it continues to throw light on the subject. bad move. the second is that he repeats precisely the same lines he made in the debate. oops. either Rubio is as dumb as a post, a robot, or he is incapable of introspection. i don't even care which, at this point. so, who do we have left, other than Trump? i guess it will come down to Cruz, Kasich, and Bush. Kasich's organization is about as weak as Trump's. that leaves Cruz an Bush. wow. i can see why some people think Trump will win.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 11, 2016 0:47:15 GMT -5
... the Fiorina vote almost certainly goes to Trump. Not Cruz? She seemed extreme partisan. the demographic that was drawn to Fiorina was the protest voter: people who loathe career politicians. they are looking for NOVICES to send a signal to "the establishment". i guess it could go to Carson, but it won't go to Cruz, imo. Cruz appeals to very conservative members of the GOP that still identify as Republicans. edit: actually, Carson is doing fairly well in SC. so, this might make him more competitive.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 11, 2016 1:32:28 GMT -5
VB- i have another thought for you to consider.
let's say this continues all the way through the primary- this Trump winning with 34% thing.
let's project the result, just roughly speaking:
Trump = 824 Cruz = 544 Rubio = 494 Kasich = 247 Bush = 198 Carson = 148
you need 1237 to win.
what do you think happens at the convention if nobody has it?
don't knee jerk the answer. REALLY THINK ABOUT IT.
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Post by marvholly on Feb 11, 2016 6:27:41 GMT -5
VB- i have another thought for you to consider. let's say this continues all the way through the primary- this Trump winning with 34% thing. let's project the result, just roughly speaking: Trump = 824 Cruz = 544 Rubio = 494 Kasich = 247 Bush = 198 Carson = 148 you need 1237 to win. what do you think happens at the convention if nobody has it? don't knee jerk the answer. REALLY THINK ABOUT IT. IMO: it will depend on who Trump picks as a vp candidate. Friend of mine suggested a Trump/Cruz ticket back in late Dec (just before Christmas). IF I find out he supports such a ticket he moves to once in a blue moon friend. He also felt Trump would get bored or something & resign leaving us Cruz as POTUS. To me = scary.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Feb 11, 2016 8:56:41 GMT -5
VB- i have another thought for you to consider. let's say this continues all the way through the primary- this Trump winning with 34% thing. let's project the result, just roughly speaking: Trump = 824 Cruz = 544 Rubio = 494 Kasich = 247 Bush = 198 Carson = 148 you need 1237 to win. what do you think happens at the convention if nobody has it? don't knee jerk the answer. REALLY THINK ABOUT IT. IMO: it will depend on who Trump picks as a vp candidate. Friend of mine suggested a Trump/Cruz ticket back in late Dec (just before Christmas). IF I find out he supports such a ticket he moves to once in a blue moon friend. He also felt Trump would get bored or something & resign leaving us Cruz as POTUS. To me = scary.
yeah, that crossed my mind too. I can't picture Trump doing all the boring briefing shit that the POTUS gets daily.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 11, 2016 9:12:33 GMT -5
VB- i have another thought for you to consider. let's say this continues all the way through the primary- this Trump winning with 34% thing. let's project the result, just roughly speaking: Trump = 824 Cruz = 544 Rubio = 494 Kasich = 247 Bush = 198 Carson = 148 you need 1237 to win. what do you think happens at the convention if nobody has it? don't knee jerk the answer. REALLY THINK ABOUT IT. Good question, and will have to really look at the individual states coming up. First impression, Cruz tanks in Florida-big delegate state. Rubio Trump and maybe Bush take them. Midwest rust belt? Trump territory. East coast-New Jersey, New York, Trump?? Texas, do not know how it will play. California, west coast-you will have to fill that one in for me. Arizona is a question mark, but I think Trump two to one over Cruz Have to think about it, but first impression, Trump is closer to 1,000 to 1,100 delegates, but still not enough on first vote.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 11, 2016 9:14:12 GMT -5
Oh, and Bush and Kasich delegates are not going to Cruz. Rubio, maybe. Carson, maybe Cruz, but some will flow Trump's way.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 11, 2016 12:03:36 GMT -5
If Trump DOESN'T have 1237 at the convention- if the convention is brokered- he may not gain another delegate there.
Trump would have to start making some friends among some of the others very fast if this were the result and he wanted to prevail.
i can always count on dem to come up with the correct answer when it has to do with something this wonky.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 11, 2016 12:04:59 GMT -5
VB- i have another thought for you to consider. let's say this continues all the way through the primary- this Trump winning with 34% thing. let's project the result, just roughly speaking: Trump = 824 Cruz = 544 Rubio = 494 Kasich = 247 Bush = 198 Carson = 148 you need 1237 to win. what do you think happens at the convention if nobody has it? don't knee jerk the answer. REALLY THINK ABOUT IT. Good question, and will have to really look at the individual states coming up. First impression, Cruz tanks in Florida-big delegate state. Rubio Trump and maybe Bush take them. Midwest rust belt? Trump territory. East coast-New Jersey, New York, Trump?? Texas, do not know how it will play. California, west coast-you will have to fill that one in for me. Arizona is a question mark, but I think Trump two to one over Cruz Have to think about it, but first impression, Trump is closer to 1,000 to 1,100 delegates, but still not enough on first vote. i wasn't asking you whether you think that this will be the result. i was asking IF this is the result, THEN what happens?
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 12, 2016 8:46:43 GMT -5
If Trump DOESN'T have 1237 at the convention- if the convention is brokered- he may not gain another delegate there.
Trump would have to start making some friends among some of the others very fast if this were the result and he wanted to prevail.
Like Cruz would ever garner another delegate thru friendship. lol
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 12, 2016 8:52:14 GMT -5
Good question, and will have to really look at the individual states coming up. First impression, Cruz tanks in Florida-big delegate state. Rubio Trump and maybe Bush take them. Midwest rust belt? Trump territory. East coast-New Jersey, New York, Trump?? Texas, do not know how it will play. California, west coast-you will have to fill that one in for me. Arizona is a question mark, but I think Trump two to one over Cruz Have to think about it, but first impression, Trump is closer to 1,000 to 1,100 delegates, but still not enough on first vote. i wasn't asking you whether you think that this will be the result. i was asking IF this is the result, THEN what happens? Why would I assume your theory holds water? You have consistently stated as the field narrows, Trump loses the primaries down the road. Now you are theorizing (dreaming) that nothing will change for Trump, and delegate percentage wins will remain pat. So, in answer to your question, Trump would garner most delegates assigned to Bush, Kasich, Rubio, and now with more dirty tricks by Cruz in SC, if Carson has any delegates they go to Trump also.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 12, 2016 8:58:24 GMT -5
There will be no brokered convention on the Republican side.
Now on the Democratic side, when Bernie Sander's people realize 700 super delegates were there, and they overwhelmingly go to Hillary regardless of how many votes Bernie gets will be interesting. It is estimated that Hillary controls 350 of the super delegates right now, and will peel more of them, as primaries are carried out. What happens if the Bernie faithful feel the nomination was stolen? Do they not vote in the fall, ala right wing Republican distrust for Mitt Romney style 2012...... In other words stay home and not vote for Hillary, or even go to the darkside and vote for Trump as a protest vote?
The Independents are a big concern, to Hillary under this scenerio.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2016 9:03:29 GMT -5
Hilary had a lot of pledged delegates last time too... Who switched sides when O started winning. As the link says on the other thread I posted... If the elected delegates go to Bernie, the Supers will too... That's an IF though.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 12, 2016 10:45:36 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2016 19:28:52 GMT -5
i wasn't asking you whether you think that this will be the result. i was asking IF this is the result, THEN what happens? Why would I assume your theory holds water? because it isn't a theory. it is a QUESTION. why are you being so cagey?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2016 19:29:20 GMT -5
There will be no brokered convention on the Republican side. thank you. was that easier or harder to pass than a kidney stone?
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 12, 2016 19:31:13 GMT -5
Hilary had a lot of pledged delegates last time too... Who switched sides when O started winning. As the link says on the other thread I posted... If the elected delegates go to Bernie, the Supers will too... That's an IF though. rookies are probably unaware that Clinton has about half of the pledged supers. if Bernie wins, he will also win about half of them. the ONLY reason Clinton got them in the first place is nobody in the Dem elite took him seriously. but he can absolutely catch up. word to my fellow Republicans: just mind our own business, and let the Dems mind theirs, mmkay?
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 17, 2016 1:00:57 GMT -5
Rubio just picked up another 17 high profile endorsements. he is quietly being groomed to be the giant killer.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Feb 17, 2016 1:11:07 GMT -5
less insane than Cruz and more palatable than Trump. Just don't loan him any money.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 17, 2016 19:15:13 GMT -5
NBC/WSJ National Republican poll just released. Cruz is leading Trump across the country. So far this looks like an outlier poll, because every poll released this week shows Trump doubling anyone and everyone.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 17, 2016 19:18:43 GMT -5
Saw a pundit on one of the national cable news networks today. He claims both political parties will have brokered conventions this fall.
At this point if Trump wins South Carolina, after mid March I think all state primaries are all "winner take all votes" on the Republican side. He will be hard to stop. He could have it won by end of March.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2016 3:13:06 GMT -5
new national poll has ted cruz +2%
Trump +11 Cruz +4 Rubio +10 Kasich +2
Kasich now in 4th. Three of the last six polls have Trump in a single digit or less lead.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 18, 2016 3:16:23 GMT -5
Saw a pundit on one of the national cable news networks today. He claims both political parties will have brokered conventions this fall. At this point if Trump wins South Carolina, after mid March I think all state primaries are all "winner take all votes" on the Republican side. He will be hard to stop. He could have it won by end of March. what pundit said this, so i can laugh at him or her later? ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/grin.png)
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marvholly
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Post by marvholly on Feb 18, 2016 6:22:48 GMT -5
I am in IL and it is a winner take all state both for the convention & the electoral college.
Early voting starts 2/29 and election day is 3/15.
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