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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 5, 2016 13:43:05 GMT -5
lots of confirming data on NH. Rubio is +5, Trump is -5, and his lead is down to a one month low.
we will see if his numbers keep eroding. Rubio is still way behind, but he is +3.5% on Cruz, and his lead is widening.
in the national polls, the latest Quinnipiac shows Trump +9, which is much better than yesterday's PPP poll showing him +4. his lead is down to 12.5% nationally, which is the lowest it has been since December 2nd, but clearly still a healthy lead.
we will have to see if Rubio can make further gains this week, or whether this bounce fades as the week wears on.
edit: one other thing of note: the latest poll results in NH are the best for any candidate OTHER THAN TRUMP since LAST JULY. you can view this two ways: one is that Trump has been utterly dominant in the state since that time, and that is true. the other is that Rubio is the only candidate that has even SUGGESTED he MIGHT give him an issue there since that time. oh, and one final thing: Rubio needs to get the polls down to single digits to beat Trump. the average election day swing over polling in NH is about 11%. if Trump leads by over 11, he is going to win.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 5, 2016 15:42:57 GMT -5
something just occurred to me. Trump is calculating that by bringing up this Birther argument he is going to drive voters from Cruz to him. BUT WHAT IF HE IS WRONG? what if, by bringing this up, he drives voters from Cruz to RUBIO? i will tell you what: he will cost himself NH, and quite possibly the primary, that's what. not too bright. if he is wrong, that is......
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Post by marvholly on Feb 6, 2016 6:28:27 GMT -5
Repub are having a Sat night debate. Even with it being on FREE broadcast stations (ABC) I cannot see a big audience when there is so much else to do - Superbowl stuff, dinner out, meet up w/friends……..Maybe that is exactly why it is scheduled that way.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 6, 2016 10:54:37 GMT -5
Repub are having a Sat night debate. Even with it being on FREE broadcast stations (ABC) I cannot see a big audience when there is so much else to do - Superbowl stuff, dinner out, meet up w/friends……..Maybe that is exactly why it is scheduled that way. I think it has more to do with there was only a week between the two primaries. All the candidates wanted plenty of face time in New Hampshire with the voters. If it were held Thursday night, it take all day Thursday off the campaign trail, where they sit and talk debate strategy, and makes Friday a reaction to the debate the previous night rather than out campaigning. Friday night, same issue for everyone. Sunday is definitely off the table because of Super Bowl More a case of logistics and timing, imo. Monday night would be useless due to last day campaigning rather than debate planning. Got to shake those hands.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 6, 2016 10:57:05 GMT -5
Myself I am really TIRED of Television interviews with potential voters who have not made up their minds by now. After Iowa and now this week in your home state, and you are still wondering? Give me a break. Maybe we do need voter IQ tests
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 6, 2016 11:01:08 GMT -5
Myself I am really TIRED of Television interviews with potential voters who have not made up their minds by now. After Iowa and now this week in your home state, and you are still wondering? Give me a break. Maybe we do need voter IQ tests This is especially irritating in the November elections. The dems cry for earlier and earlier absentee balloting, and with holding a citizen's right to vote, and yet the polls always show the electorate is still making a decision. Look at Iowa caucus. They limited the right to vote to two hours on a Tuesday evening. No one complains anyone was disenfranchised on either side of the political spectrum.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 6, 2016 12:44:01 GMT -5
Myself I am really TIRED of Television interviews with potential voters who have not made up their minds by now. After Iowa and now this week in your home state, and you are still wondering? Give me a break. Maybe we do need voter IQ tests you can have an IQ of 150 and still not be able to tie your shoes.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Feb 6, 2016 13:36:54 GMT -5
Myself I am really TIRED of Television interviews with potential voters who have not made up their minds by now. After Iowa and now this week in your home state, and you are still wondering? Give me a break. Maybe we do need voter IQ tests you can have an IQ of 150 and still not be able to tie your shoes. LOL! Tell me about it! My father had an IQ a good deal higher than 150 and ... well, I won't speak ill of the dead but he had issues with doors. They were out to get him.
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Post by gregintenn on Feb 6, 2016 13:55:02 GMT -5
Myself I am really TIRED of Television interviews with potential voters who have not made up their minds by now. After Iowa and now this week in your home state, and you are still wondering? Give me a break. Maybe we do need voter IQ tests It needs to be means tested....if you didn't pay income tax last year, you don't get a vote.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 6, 2016 14:20:27 GMT -5
Myself I am really TIRED of Television interviews with potential voters who have not made up their minds by now. After Iowa and now this week in your home state, and you are still wondering? Give me a break. Maybe we do need voter IQ tests It needs to be means tested....if you didn't pay income tax last year, you don't get a vote. How about serve to the nation, Military, Peace Corp, Americorps, etc?
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Feb 6, 2016 14:22:22 GMT -5
What if you made $100M and paid 10%? Means test that!
Last year 3 hedge fund managers that made over $1billion each paid less combined than all 158,000 kindergarten teachers in America.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Feb 6, 2016 14:28:02 GMT -5
Myself I am really TIRED of Television interviews with potential voters who have not made up their minds by now. After Iowa and now this week in your home state, and you are still wondering? Give me a break. Maybe we do need voter IQ tests It needs to be means tested....if you didn't pay income tax last year, you don't get a vote. The US Constitution stated in Amendment XXIV, which was ratified by the states in 1964: "Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote in any primary or other election for President or Vice President, for electors for President or Vice President, or for Senator or Representative in Congress, shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any State by reason of failure to pay poll tax or other tax. Section 2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation." 1964 - US Constitution (104 KB)
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 6, 2016 14:34:45 GMT -5
Myself I am really TIRED of Television interviews with potential voters who have not made up their minds by now. After Iowa and now this week in your home state, and you are still wondering? Give me a break. Maybe we do need voter IQ tests It needs to be means tested....if you didn't pay income tax last year, you don't get a vote. Means test this one also: ![]() Bummer dude, your disability pay is non-taxed (http://www.benefits.va.gov/COMPENSATION/types-disability.asp) so guess what? You don't get to vote.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Feb 6, 2016 14:48:10 GMT -5
Why would bigtime supporters of the US Constitution call for no voting for those that pay -0- taxes?
I know this would exclude many poor folks, but what about stay at home Christian moms with no income home schooling their kids?
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Post by gregintenn on Feb 6, 2016 14:59:43 GMT -5
It needs to be means tested....if you didn't pay income tax last year, you don't get a vote. The US Constitution stated in Amendment XXIV, which was ratified by the states in 1964: "Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote in any primary or other election for President or Vice President, for electors for President or Vice President, or for Senator or Representative in Congress, shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any State by reason of failure to pay poll tax or other tax. Section 2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation." 1964 - US Constitution (104 KB) That is correct. It should be repealed.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 6, 2016 15:00:27 GMT -5
Why would bigtime supporters of the US Constitution call for no voting for those that pay -0- taxes?
I know this would exclude many poor folks, but what about stay at home Christian moms with no income home schooling their kids? Married filing jointly I would guess would qualify. But of course if they are living on a smaller income with a few kids, they could be excluded.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 6, 2016 15:01:11 GMT -5
Anyone else reminded of the Texan in Catch 22?
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Feb 6, 2016 15:01:25 GMT -5
The US Constitution stated in Amendment XXIV, which was ratified by the states in 1964: "Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote in any primary or other election for President or Vice President, for electors for President or Vice President, or for Senator or Representative in Congress, shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any State by reason of failure to pay poll tax or other tax. Section 2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation." 1964 - US Constitution (104 KB) That is correct. It should be repealed. According to you. I don't agree.
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gregintenn
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Post by gregintenn on Feb 6, 2016 15:02:15 GMT -5
That is correct. It should be repealed. According to you. I don't agree. Of course. It's only my opinion. It'll never happen.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Feb 6, 2016 15:15:33 GMT -5
The Constitution is sacrosanct for all the 'constitutionalists' until they decide it isn't. How charming.
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Post by fishy999 on Feb 6, 2016 21:14:33 GMT -5
The Constitution is sacrosanct for all the 'constitutionalists' until they decide it isn't. How charming. Cafeteria Constitutionalists ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/wink.png) They are the same 'state's rights' people that waver depending on the issue.
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Post by gregintenn on Feb 6, 2016 22:12:35 GMT -5
The Constitution is sacrosanct for all the 'constitutionalists' until they decide it isn't. How charming. Cafeteria Constitutionalists ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/wink.png) They are the same 'state's rights' people that waver depending on the issue. What issue have i wavered on? Means testing for voting rights is verboten by the 14th amendment. I respect that. There is a constitutional way to change it, and I would support it. Until then, I'm on the losing end and accept that.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 7, 2016 14:33:15 GMT -5
Rubio has not extended his gains from last week in NH, so i am giving Ttrump 3:2 odds of winning NH.
Sanders should handily win NH.
if either fails to win, i think they are finished. they really have built a huge lead in the state, and it would be a humiliating defeat for either of them,
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 8, 2016 17:36:42 GMT -5
ok, we have three national polls out since Iowa, and they show SIGNIFICANT erosion for Trump:
Trump +9 Cruz +3 Rubio +10
so, now we still have Cruz and Rubio tied for second (essentially) but Rubio (and Cruz) is now up by double digits over the rest of the field. in fact, his lead, and that of Cruz, are bigger over the rest of the field than Trump's lead is over them. Rubio is up 8% in the last week.
this is Trump's smallest lead since Thanksgiving.
in New Hampshire, Trump would be in serious trouble were it not for the fact that there is a FOUR WAY TIE FOR SECOND. his erosion is visible, but it is too late in the cycle to unthrone him, imo. the UMASS poll, for example, has him down 4% in the last week, and Rubio is +4% during that time. but with a 16% lead, it would take Rubio weeks to catch up, and after his last debate, the pace is probably even slower.
so yeah. Dumpster Fire is going to win NH, imo. and where it goes from there, nobody can tell.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 9, 2016 7:52:54 GMT -5
The Constitution is sacrosanct for all the 'constitutionalists' until they decide it isn't. How charming. The Constitution has been butchered by the Progressives with various amendments circumventing the original intent of the authors.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 9, 2016 8:07:54 GMT -5
ok, we have three national polls out since Iowa, and they show SIGNIFICANT erosion for Trump: Trump +9 Cruz +3 Rubio +10 so, now we still have Cruz and Rubio tied for second (essentially) but Rubio (and Cruz) is now up by double digits over the rest of the field. in fact, his lead, and that of Cruz, are bigger over the rest of the field than Trump's lead is over them. Rubio is up 8% in the last week. this is Trump's smallest lead since Thanksgiving. in New Hampshire, Trump would be in serious trouble were it not for the fact that there is a FOUR WAY TIE FOR SECOND. his erosion is visible, but it is too late in the cycle to unthrone him, imo. the UMASS poll, for example, has him down 4% in the last week, and Rubio is +4% during that time. but with a 16% lead, it would take Rubio weeks to catch up, and after his last debate, the pace is probably even slower. so yeah. Dumpster Fire is going to win NH, imo. and where it goes from there, nobody can tell. Looks like Hillary has partially closed the gap with Bernie. Looks like it is no longer a blowout, but Bernie does win. Trump takes N.H. Some polls show Jeb beating Rubio, and both Kasich and Bush are showing large gains in total vote, both around 13%. Rubio could either be second or fifth....... Fifth would not be good. Cruz is still trailing Rubio. That said, we know N.H. polls go out the window today and it is truly anyone's game to win today. There could literally be fifteen percent swings between the polls and actual vote outcome. Then, you have the Independents who could come out on the Republican vote today to sink a particular candidate's chances. Believe it or not Jeb has the highest favorable rating in the Republican side with 55%. Trump is at 49% favorable rating.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 9, 2016 10:48:48 GMT -5
The Constitution is sacrosanct for all the 'constitutionalists' until they decide it isn't. How charming. The Constitution has been butchered by the Progressives with various amendments circumventing the original intent of the authors. Wait a minute, I seem to remember something. Yes, here it is: Article. V.
The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, ... It was the original intent of the authors for the Constitution to be amended.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 9, 2016 11:19:06 GMT -5
The Constitution is sacrosanct for all the 'constitutionalists' until they decide it isn't. How charming. The Constitution has been butchered by the Progressives with various amendments circumventing the original intent of the authors. yeah, like that f(*king Jefferson. what an a-hole.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 9, 2016 11:20:01 GMT -5
ok, we have three national polls out since Iowa, and they show SIGNIFICANT erosion for Trump: Trump +9 Cruz +3 Rubio +10 so, now we still have Cruz and Rubio tied for second (essentially) but Rubio (and Cruz) is now up by double digits over the rest of the field. in fact, his lead, and that of Cruz, are bigger over the rest of the field than Trump's lead is over them. Rubio is up 8% in the last week. this is Trump's smallest lead since Thanksgiving. in New Hampshire, Trump would be in serious trouble were it not for the fact that there is a FOUR WAY TIE FOR SECOND. his erosion is visible, but it is too late in the cycle to unthrone him, imo. the UMASS poll, for example, has him down 4% in the last week, and Rubio is +4% during that time. but with a 16% lead, it would take Rubio weeks to catch up, and after his last debate, the pace is probably even slower. so yeah. Dumpster Fire is going to win NH, imo. and where it goes from there, nobody can tell. Looks like Hillary has partially closed the gap with Bernie. Looks like it is no longer a blowout, but Bernie does win. Trump takes N.H. Some polls show Jeb beating Rubio, and both Kasich and Bush are showing large gains in total vote, both around 13%. Rubio could either be second or fifth....... Fifth would not be good. Cruz is still trailing Rubio. That said, we know N.H. polls go out the window today and it is truly anyone's game to win today. There could literally be fifteen percent swings between the polls and actual vote outcome. Then, you have the Independents who could come out on the Republican vote today to sink a particular candidate's chances. Believe it or not Jeb has the highest favorable rating in the Republican side with 55%. Trump is at 49% favorable rating. those favorability ratings are within the GOP, right? if not, post a link, please.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Feb 9, 2016 11:42:59 GMT -5
The Constitution has been butchered by the Progressives with various amendments circumventing the original intent of the authors.
Surprised to find you so aggressively opposed to the Bill of Rights.
The 13th, 19th, and 24th must have really set you off.
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