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Post by Deleted on Feb 1, 2016 23:13:55 GMT -5
when will Jeb Bush drop out? I think some politicians get into the race for the attention. I think Jeb Bush got into it to win. Is he going to be interested in being in the race after losing so big? After New Hampshire if it is just as bad?
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 1, 2016 23:21:13 GMT -5
when will Jeb Bush drop out? I think some politicians get into the race for the attention. I think Jeb Bush got into it to win. Is he going to be interested in being in the race after losing so big? After New Hampshire if it is just as bad? well, he has the money to go the distance, but he would be a fool to do so. prediction: his doners are going to push him hard to drop out if he doesn't come in 3rd or better. second prediction: he won't come in third or better. third prediction: he will be out by Valentine's Day.
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Post by tallguy on Feb 1, 2016 23:27:46 GMT -5
I flipped to C-SPAN for a while. They had coverage of both Democratic and Republican caucuses (camera crew with microphones following the proceedings and vote-counting.) I saw the tabulation of three of the precincts, each with 168-174 votes cast. In one precinct Bush did not get a single vote. In the other two he received five and six. Cruz received (as I recall) 48, 70, and 56 or something like that. I know Bush did not expect to do well in Iowa, but that was stunning to see a zero.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 1, 2016 23:50:09 GMT -5
I flipped to C-SPAN for a while. They had coverage of both Democratic and Republican caucuses (camera crew with microphones following the proceedings and vote-counting.) I saw the tabulation of three of the precincts, each with 168-174 votes cast. In one precinct Bush did not get a single vote. In the other two he received five and six. Cruz received (as I recall) 48, 70, and 56 or something like that. I know Bush did not expect to do well in Iowa, but that was stunning to see a zero. he's got a shot in NH. it is a slim one, but it is probably his BEST shot. if he wins, and he is probably about 15:1 underdog right now, it will keep him in the race. otherwise, i think he should go. but it doesn't matter what i think. only what his sugar daddies think.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2016 0:11:04 GMT -5
Did the big money that gave to Jeb Bush get anything for their money or was it all wasted if he fails? Or does the money they spent bleed over into other benefits?
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 2, 2016 0:39:50 GMT -5
Did the big money that gave to Jeb Bush get anything for their money or was it all wasted if he fails? Or does the money they spent bleed over into other benefits? i knew the answer to that two weeks ago, but i can't think of it now.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 2, 2016 0:52:45 GMT -5
another delegate just jumped to Rubio. that puts him in a tie with Trump for second.
great night for Rubio and Cruz, and pretty poor one for Trump.
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Feb 2, 2016 8:44:57 GMT -5
My husband reported that Huckabee and OMallory both announced their were closing up shop last night. I think his source was Fox but I got nothing to link too.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2016 11:16:28 GMT -5
Is Jeb Bush's political career over when he drops out? Does he have ambitions to be Secretary of something? Would he be considered for that?
is the Bush dynasty pretty much over? I know there are younger Bushes, but are they expected to be national leaders someday?
How come there is no thread on Bushes?
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Post by gregintenn on Feb 2, 2016 11:18:32 GMT -5
My husband reported that Huckabee and OMallory both announced their were closing up shop last night. I think his source was Fox but I got nothing to link too. It's being reported on the radio as well. I assume it came from AP wire.
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Post by gregintenn on Feb 2, 2016 11:21:55 GMT -5
Is Jeb Bush's political career over when he drops out? Does he have ambitions to be Secretary of something? Would he be considered for that? is the Bush dynasty pretty much over? I know there are younger Bushes, but are they expected to be national leaders someday? How come there is no thread on Bushes?With the exception of a few clingers who still like to blame every conceivable world problem on George W., I think most of us would prefer to just forget about the Bushes.
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Post by dondub on Feb 2, 2016 11:30:54 GMT -5
The repos sure did starting in Jan. 2009. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/cool.png) W didn't even show up at the last 2 conventions the stain was so deep. Eventually we will completely recover from his stupid wars and the BushCo. Crash. In the meantime, those that forget history are doomed to repeat it. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/cool.png)
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Post by tallguy on Feb 2, 2016 11:40:08 GMT -5
I think Jeb would be better than his brother, who was a terrible president. Likely not as good as his father, who is probably the definition of an average one. Certainly better than the ideologues and outsiders the "base" seems to prefer at the moment. (And yes, putting the term "base" in quotation marks was intentional.)
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 2, 2016 12:28:56 GMT -5
Is Jeb Bush's political career over when he drops out? Does he have ambitions to be Secretary of something? Would he be considered for that? is the Bush dynasty pretty much over? I know there are younger Bushes, but are they expected to be national leaders someday? How come there is no thread on Bushes? because they are loathsome and we are trying to forget them? ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/angel2.png)
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 3, 2016 14:59:36 GMT -5
so, Cruz wrapped up Iowa, but there is no way he wins NH. here is the problem i am seeing in NH. it is basically a FOUR WAY TIE FOR SECOND: Cruz, Rubio (no surprise there), Kasich, and Bush. yes. Bush. so, here is the deal. Rubio and Bush have the biggest bank accounts, and are seen as the most "establishment" candidates of those four. if they fail to win, but place in the top 3, i expect both of them to continue slogging on. especially with 3rd tier candidates dropping like flies. i think this is do-or-die for Kasich. if he can't place top 3, preferably 2nd, he is probably done. and honestly? i don't know where he will place. it is IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY. if Cruz comes in out of the top 3, it is going to be really hard for him going forward- but i think he goes all the way to Super Tuesday, at least. i rate Trump a 3:2 favourite to win NH. some of you probably are asking: why not 3:1 ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/huh.gif) he is leading by 20%! and you are right. he is. that is why i think he will win. but here is the deal. there are FOUR longshots in this race. Rubio has a 1:7 chance of winning. Cruz is about 1:8. Kasich is about 1:16, Bush is about 1:20. so, you combine all of those guys, and they are 2:3. but in reality, they stand almost no chance of winning. the polls this week are going to tell us a LOT about how this race will turn out. 75% of NH voters don't make up their minds until AFTER Iowa. if they are using Iowa as a template, it should increase Rubio and Cruz's odds of winning or placing well a bit.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 3, 2016 16:11:42 GMT -5
... the polls this week are going to tell us a LOT about how this race will turn out. 75% of NH voters don't make up their minds until AFTER Iowa. if they are using Iowa as a template, it should increase Rubio and Cruz's odds of winning or placing well a bit. Or will Cruz winning Iowa motivate people to turn out to vote for anyone but him?
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 3, 2016 17:10:28 GMT -5
... the polls this week are going to tell us a LOT about how this race will turn out. 75% of NH voters don't make up their minds until AFTER Iowa. if they are using Iowa as a template, it should increase Rubio and Cruz's odds of winning or placing well a bit. Or will Cruz winning Iowa motivate people to turn out to vote for anyone but him? what Iowa shows is that Trump can be beaten. i don't know if that matters to the GOP anymore, but it should.
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Post by billisonboard on Feb 3, 2016 17:41:46 GMT -5
Or will Cruz winning Iowa motivate people to turn out to vote for anyone but him? what Iowa shows is that Trump can be beaten. i don't know if that matters to the GOP anymore, but it should. The GOP doesn't vote, people vote (or don't). And it will be the people of NH next to vote. You state that they use Iowa as a template. So, after doing well in Iowa 2012, did that increase or decrease Santorum's percentage in NH? How many NH voters are thinking, "That Cruz fella could just win this. Got to do something about that" and got out to vote for someone else?
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Post by gregintenn on Feb 3, 2016 20:45:32 GMT -5
I've about decided Rubio will end up being the man on the right.
You know Hillary's got the left sewn up.
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Post by fishy999 on Feb 3, 2016 21:07:53 GMT -5
Or will Cruz winning Iowa motivate people to turn out to vote for anyone but him? what Iowa shows is that Trump can be beaten. i don't know if that matters to the GOP anymore, but it should. Unless you listen to Trump ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/wink.png) According to him Cruz cheated and stole the election and it should be done over or voided. What a shock.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 3, 2016 23:01:00 GMT -5
what Iowa shows is that Trump can be beaten. i don't know if that matters to the GOP anymore, but it should. The GOP doesn't vote, people vote (or don't). And it will be the people of NH next to vote. You state that they use Iowa as a template. So, after doing well in Iowa 2012, did that increase or decrease Santorum's percentage in NH? How many NH voters are thinking, "That Cruz fella could just win this. Got to do something about that" and got out to vote for someone else? i was speaking generically: "the GOP" meant "GOP voters". Iowa is better for indicating who will NOT do well than who will. based on that, i think that Kasich and Bush are finished. but who knows, right?
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 4, 2016 2:27:49 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 4, 2016 2:32:28 GMT -5
everyone is paying such close attention to Trump that they are forgetting about other candidates, and their paths to victory.
their paths to victory come from endorsements and organization. Trump has neither.
he thinks he can win every contest like a beauty queen: through charisma and being there.
well, he is such a smart fucking guy, let's see how much he learns from Iowa.
my guess is: he learns nothing. NOTHING. the fact that he is saying he lost because Cruz cheated shows that he has learned NOTHING.
i think he is incapable of learning. but we'll see.
here is my prediction: if he loses NH, he is finished. done. he will lose every state.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 4, 2016 2:51:53 GMT -5
oh man, this is just so amazeballs i have to post it: www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/trumpcruz-close-in-iowa-birther-issue-could-hurt-cruz-sanders-gaining-on-clinton.html#moreDespite all the attention to this issue in the last week, still only 46% of Iowa Republicans are aware that Cruz was not born in the United States. In fact, there are more GOP voters in the state who think Cruz (34%) was born in the United States than think Barack Obama (28%) was. Donald Trump knows what he's doing when he repeatedly brings up this issue- 36% of Cruz voters aren't aware yet that he wasn't born in the United States, and 24% of Cruz voters say someone born outside the country shouldn't be allowed to be President. So this issue has the potential to be a difference maker with the race persistently so close in Iowa. The good news for Cruz is that when informed, 65% of Iowa Republicans say it makes no difference to them that he was born in Canada- but 24% saying less likely could be crucial in a margin of error race. think about those two sentences for a few minutes, and see if it makes your brain crackle like a bug short circuiting a wall socket.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 4, 2016 2:53:17 GMT -5
watch The Donald play this card. i have been predicting it for a long time.
when Cruz was in 5th, there was no incentive. now? it is going to become part of his stump.
just watch.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 4, 2016 12:38:29 GMT -5
ok, ready? this is probably the most interesting poll i have seen to date. particularly if it means what i think it does. Trump +13 Cruz +8 Rubio +4 Carson +3 so, what we have here is Trump's smallest lead and worst showing since 12/21. the PPP survey, which shows him in a 3-way tie within MOE is his worst showing since the mid-November Bloomberg poll in terms of absolute numbers and the mid-December Quinnipiac poll in terms of lead. furthermore, this is precisely the kind of erosion that is needed to unseat Trump. whereas previous losses in lead were not due to loss in absolute numbers, this loss IS. i have stated over and over again that if someone is not TAKING from The Donald, he is going to win. but here we have someone taking from The Donald: Rubio. and make no mistake about it. Rubio would be very tough for Clinton to beat. so, what we have here is a candidate who is capable of beating Clinton taking votes from someone who is, in my opinion, not. this is good for the GOP and good for the health of the election process, imo. as of now, this poll is VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER. so, we will wait and see if we get confirming surveys. but if we do, all bets are off on the Donald's "presumptive presidency".
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 4, 2016 13:05:11 GMT -5
NOTE: i am not going to post any more odds for a few days. the polling is too fluid right now to give any indication how it is going to go.
if the PPP poll is "the new reality" for Trump, he is in big trouble. but it is impossible to say if that poll is just a fluke, or whether that really IS how things are. every time i think i am seeing something (like last month with Quinnipiac, that showed Cruz behind by only 4%), a new poll comes out that shows Trump ahead by 20%, and we are back to the old reality of him leading by double digits.
so, i am just going to shut up for a few days and see what the new polls say. i want at least THREE new polls (we have one) before i add comments to this thread.
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 4, 2016 14:03:13 GMT -5
Is Jeb Bush's political career over when he drops out? Does he have ambitions to be Secretary of something? Would he be considered for that? is the Bush dynasty pretty much over? I know there are younger Bushes, but are they expected to be national leaders someday? How come there is no thread on Bushes? I started on on Jeb when he tweeted out he was running for the Presidency. It kind of died with the last gasp of his campaign, and the second debate when Trump deemed him "low energy" I will look for it and bump up the death thread for you
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Post by Value Buy on Feb 4, 2016 14:06:18 GMT -5
ok, ready? this is probably the most interesting poll i have seen to date. particularly if it means what i think it does. Trump +13 Cruz +8 Rubio +4 Carson +3 so, what we have here is Trump's smallest lead and worst showing since 12/21. the PPP survey, which shows him in a 3-way tie within MOE is his worst showing since the mid-November Bloomberg poll in terms of absolute numbers and the mid-December Quinnipiac poll in terms of lead. furthermore, this is precisely the kind of erosion that is needed to unseat Trump. whereas previous losses in lead were not due to loss in absolute numbers, this loss IS. i have stated over and over again that if someone is not TAKING from The Donald, he is going to win. but here we have someone taking from The Donald: Rubio. and make no mistake about it. Rubio would be very tough for Clinton to beat. so, what we have here is a candidate who is capable of beating Clinton taking votes from someone who is, in my opinion, not. this is good for the GOP and good for the health of the election process, imo. as of now, this poll is VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER. so, we will wait and see if we get confirming surveys. but if we do, all bets are off on the Donald's "presumptive presidency". Outlier? Carson a plus 3 I guess it is an outlier Latest New Hampshire Republican poll showed Cruz flat, and Rubio gaining, but Trump well in the lead.
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Post by djAdvocate on Feb 4, 2016 14:48:03 GMT -5
ok, ready? this is probably the most interesting poll i have seen to date. particularly if it means what i think it does. Trump +13 Cruz +8 Rubio +4 Carson +3 so, what we have here is Trump's smallest lead and worst showing since 12/21. the PPP survey, which shows him in a 3-way tie within MOE is his worst showing since the mid-November Bloomberg poll in terms of absolute numbers and the mid-December Quinnipiac poll in terms of lead. furthermore, this is precisely the kind of erosion that is needed to unseat Trump. whereas previous losses in lead were not due to loss in absolute numbers, this loss IS. i have stated over and over again that if someone is not TAKING from The Donald, he is going to win. but here we have someone taking from The Donald: Rubio. and make no mistake about it. Rubio would be very tough for Clinton to beat. so, what we have here is a candidate who is capable of beating Clinton taking votes from someone who is, in my opinion, not. this is good for the GOP and good for the health of the election process, imo. as of now, this poll is VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER. so, we will wait and see if we get confirming surveys. but if we do, all bets are off on the Donald's "presumptive presidency". Outlier? Carson a plus 3 I guess it is an outlier Latest New Hampshire Republican poll showed Cruz flat, and Rubio gaining, but Trump well in the lead. Carson leads Bush by 3. that is not an outlier. it is right on average. and all of the latest polls show Trump fallin, Cruz flat, and Rubio gaining. but there are very few of them to look at.
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